Fed Bowman: Additional policy rate increases necessary

    In a speech today, Fed Michelle Bowman underscored that more action would be necessary to bring inflation under control.

    She noted, “I believe that additional policy rate increases will be necessary to bring inflation down to our target over time.”

    While acknowledging the influence of the current tighter monetary policy on both economic activity and inflation, she pointed out that “core inflation essentially plateau since the fall of 2022.”

    She suggested Fed would need to raise interest rate to a “sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy to meaningfully and durably bring inflation down.”

    Full speech of Fed Bowman here.

    BoE Bailey: Raising interest rate is the best way to get inflation down

      In a video release after today’s 50bps rate hike, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, “inflation is still too high”, and “recent data has shown us that further decisive action is needed”.

      “If we don’t raise rates now, high inflation could stay with us for longer and inflation hits all of us, particularly those who can least afford it,” he warned.”

      “Raising interest rates is the best way we have of getting inflation back down to the 2% target.”

      https://twitter.com/bankofengland/status/1671862096831627264

       

       

      US initial jobless claims unchanged at 264k

        US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 264k in the week ending June 17, above expectation of 256k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 8.5k to 256k highest since November 13, 2021.

        Continuing claims dropped -13k to 1759k in the week ending June 10. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -7.5k to 1770.

        Full US jobless claims release here.

        BoE hikes 50bps by 7-2 vote, further tightening could be required

          BoE raises Bank Rate by 50bps to 5.00%, larger than consensus of 25bps. The decision was made by 7-2 vote, with only known dove Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro voted for no change again.

          Tightening bias is maintained as the central bank noted, “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”

          BoE continues to expect CPI to “fall significantly further during the course of the year”. Services CPI is projected to “remain broadly unchanged in the near term”. Meanwhile, core goods CPI is expected to “decline later this year”.

          Second-round effects in domestic price and wage developments are “likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge”. There has been “significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process.”

          Full BoE statement here.

          SNB Jordan: We cannot rule out further tightening

            In the post-meeting press conference, SNB Chair Thomas Jordan affirmed that “We cannot rule out further monetary policy tightening,” following a decision to increase interest rates by 25bos to 1.75% today.

            “Without a more restrictive monetary policy, there would be a danger of inflation becoming entrenched and much stronger rate increases would be needed in the future,” Jordan warned.

            Jordan acknowledged the recent marked decline in inflation as a welcome result of SNB’s more restrictive monetary policy in place for the past year. However, he cautioned that underlying inflationary pressure continued to intensify. “We are therefore observing persistent second-round effects in many domestic goods and services,” Jordan said.

            Despite today’s rate increase, SNB’s new forecasts for inflation from 2024 onwards are higher than their March predictions. Jordan attributed this upward revision to ongoing second-round effects, increased electricity prices and rents, and sustained inflationary pressure from overseas.

            SNB’s updated inflation projections show 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, and 2.1% in 2025, compared to previous forecasts of 2.6% for this year and 2% for the next two years.

            SNB hikes 25bps, inflation to fall to 1.7% in Q3 then bounce

              SNB raises policy rate by 25bps to 1.75%, for “countering inflationary pressure, which has increased again over the medium term”. The central bank also leaves the door open for more tightening, as “it cannot be ruled out that additional rises in the SNB policy rate will be necessary”. SNB also maintains the willingness to intervene in the currency markets, with focus on “selling foreign currency”.

              In the new conditional forecast, 2023 inflation projection is lowered from 2.6% to 2.2%, down in from Q2 through Q4, with trough at 1.7% in Q3. However, 2024 and 2025 inflation projections are raised from 2.0% (both) to 2.2% and 2.1% respectively. Inflation is estimated to stay above 2% target from the tart of 2024 through Q1 2026, with a peak at 2.3% in Q3 2023.

              Regarding the economy, SNB expects “modest growth” for the rest of the year. Overall GDP is to growth by 1.0% in 2023 and unemployment rise will “probably rise slightly”. “Subdued demand from abroad, the loss of purchasing power due to inflation, and more restrictive financial conditions are having a dampening effect.”

              Full SNB statement here.

              BoE and SNB to hike for sure, but… by how much?

                As BoE gears up for its monetary policy decision today, market observers find themselves divided on the scale of the expected rate hike. This indecision comes in the wake of a consumer inflation report released yesterday that muddied the waters. Headline CPI for May remained static at 8.7%, exceeding BoE’s own forecasts, while core CPI climbed to 7.1%, reaching its highest level since 1992.

                Market participants are currently betting on a 40% probability of a more substantial 50bps increase to 5.00%, and a 60% chance of a modest 25bps hike. The critical shift also lies in elevated projections for the terminal rate, which has shot up to 6.00%, a marked rise from below 5% merely a month ago.

                The verdict for today’s decision will also pivot significantly on the voting breakdown, which will serve as a bellwether for BoE’s future steps. Known doves Silvana Tenreyro and Swati Dhingra are more likely to vote against any changes. The real wildcard, however, is how many of the remaining seven members will advocate for a 50bps hike, even if a 25bps increase is ultimately implemented.

                SNB is also expected to announce its own rate hike from the current 1.50%. Chairman Thomas Jordan has signalled that interest rates may need to ascend above 2% threshold – a restrictive level – to reel inflation back below 2% mark. The quotes lies in timing of the attainment of this peak rate. Presently, the likelihood of either a 25bps or a 50bps hike today seems evenly split, making it a nail-biter.

                Some previews on BoE and SNB:

                GBP/CHF’s rally was choked after hitting 1.1502 earlier in the week, kept below 1.1574 resistance. For now, the favored case is still that triangle consolidation pattern from 1.1574 has completed at 1.1024. Rise from 1.1024 is seen as resuming the whole rally from 1.0183. Decisive break of 1.1574 will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.0183 to 1.1574 from 1.1024 at 1.1884. However, firm break of 1.1347 support will dampen this view, and extend the pattern from 1.1574 with another fall.

                New Zealand goods exports up 2.8% yoy in may, imports rose 4.4% yoy

                  New Zealand’s monthly trade balance in May registered smaller surplus than anticipated, clocking in at NZD 46m against expected NZD 350m. This outcome followed rise in goods exports by NZD 189m (2.8% yoy) to NZD 7.0B, while goods imports saw an increase of NZD 292m (4.4% yoy), totalling NZD 6.9B.

                  China led the growth in monthly exports, with total exports increasing by NZD 308m (18% yoy). USA also reported a significant rise in exports, up by NZD 68m (9.7% yoy), while Japan experienced a modest increment of NZD 18m (4.2% yoy). On the other hand, total exports to Australia and the European Union fell by NZD -122m (-14% yoy) and NZD -60m (-11% yoy) respectively.

                  When it comes to imports, USA claimed the top spot with a massive jump of NZD 435m (87% yoy). South Korea followed with an increase of NZD 152m (41% yoy), while Australia and the European Union saw increases of NZD 81m (11% yoy) and NZD 31m (3.2% yoy) respectively. However, China’s imports into New Zealand declined by NZD 52m (-3.6% yoy).

                  Full NZ trade balance release here.

                  BoJ Noguchi: Important to maintain monetary easing

                    BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi underlined the necessity of maintaining monetary easing as Japan navigates signs of wage growth.

                    “What’s most important now is for the BOJ to maintain monetary easing and ensure budding signs of wage growth become a sustained, strong trend,” he said.

                    Noguchi predicts that core consumer inflation, which has been running above the bank’s 2% target, will likely drop below this level around September or October. He attributed this anticipated decrease to the fading effects of past increases in raw material costs.

                    However, he noted that the possibility of inflation bouncing back above 2% later on and maintaining that level hinges largely on future wage trends and service prices.

                    Fed Bostic: Rates should stay at current level for the rest of 2023

                      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shared his insights on the current monetary policy landscape in an interview on Yahoo Finance. Bostic argued for a pause on tightening , suggesting that federal funds rate should remain stable at the current level of 5.00-5.25% for the rest of the year.

                      “My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year,” he stated. He suggested that Fed’s tightening work should be allowed to ripple through the economy.

                      He asserted, “It takes time for monetary policy changes to meaningfully influence economic activity. We have good reasons to expect our policy tightening will be increasingly effective in coming months.”

                      Bundesbank Nagel: It’s a first order error to give up inflation fight too early

                        Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel described inflation as a “greedy beast” that’s “stubborn. And it’s a “first order error” to give up the fight early.

                        During his remarks, Nagel noted “there’s still a way to go,” to bring inflation down to the 2% target, and “we have to slow economic activity to bring inflation down.”

                        Nagel used vivid language to underline the ongoing challenge: “Inflation to me is like a greedy beast and we do have to fight against this very greedy beast.”

                        “As inflation fighters we have to be very stubborn because inflation is so stubborn,” added.

                        Nagel cautioned against conceding the fight too early. “It would be a first order error to give up too early,” he warned.

                        ECB Schnabel warns of wage-price spiral

                          ECB Executive Board Isabel Schnabel told a panel in Berlin that “domestic prices pressures are driven by both profits and wages.”

                          The key question moving forward, she indicated, hinges on whether firms will absorb wage increases into their profit margins or pass the costs on to consumers.

                          She noted the strength of the labour market, citing the historically high ratio of job vacancies to unemployed people. This, she suggested, has heightened the bargaining power of workers.

                          She offered a word of caution: “If wages rise faster than we thought and productivity growth doesn’t recover, then there is a risk that this could turn into such a wage-price spiral,” she warned.

                          Fed Powell: Nearly all FOMC members expect further tightening this year

                            Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that it’s appropriate to continue tightening. But the Committee would like to assess additional information, before making meeting-by-meeting decisions.

                            In the prepared remarks for the Semiannual testimony to Congress, Powell said, “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.”

                            “But at last week’s meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” he added.

                            In determining future actions, Fed will take into account, “account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments”.

                            “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks,” He said.

                            Full remarks of Fed Powell here.

                            Canada retail sales rose 1.1% mom in Apr, well above expectation

                              Canada retail sales rose 1.1% mom to CAD 65.9B in April, well above expectation of 0.3% mom. Sales increased in eight of nine subsectors and were led by increases at general merchandise retailers (+3.3%) and food and beverage retailers (+1.5%). Ex auto and fuel sales rose 1.5% mom, its fifth consecutive monthly increase. In volume terms retail sales rose 0.3% mom.

                              Advance estimates suggests that sales rose 0.5% mom in May.

                              Full Canada retail sales release here.

                              Ifo: German economy to contract -0.4% this year, inflation down slightly to 5.8%

                                German economy endured a “sharp setback” in the winter half-year, primarily due to soaring inflation and noticeably weakened demand, as per the latest report from Germany’s Ifo Institute.

                                The country’s GDP is predicted to decline by -0.4% this year, before witnessing a rebound with a 1.5% growth next year. The institute also anticipates a gradual decrease the inflation rate, dropping from 6.9% in 2022, to 5.8% in 2023, and then 2.1% in 2024.

                                In terms of inflation, the Ifo Institute anticipates a further decrease in inflation rates in the coming months, with producers likely to pass on price reductions for intermediate input costs, particularly energy, to their customers.

                                Nevertheless, wage growth is likely to accelerate throughout the year due to more inflation bonuses being distributed and the effect of noticeable increases in collectively agreed wages.

                                Full Ifo release here.

                                BoJ Ueda: Will patiently maintain easy monetary policy

                                  In his address to the annual trust association’s meeting, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the central bank’s commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy. According to Ueda, BoJ “will patiently maintain an easy monetary policy to stably and sustainably achieve the 2% price target accompanied by wage growth.”

                                  Governor Ueda provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for Japan’s economy, describing it as “picking up” and likely to “recover moderately.” In terms of inflation, he reiterated the expectation of slowdown in Japan’s consumer inflation towards the middle of the current fiscal year.

                                  Ueda also offered reassurances about the stability of Japan’s financial system, noting it was “stable as a whole.” Despite recent failures of several US banks, Ueda claimed the impact on Japan’s financial system was limited.

                                  UK CPI unchanged at 8.7% yoy in May, core CPI rose to 7.1% yoy

                                    UK annual CPI was unchanged at 8.7% yoy in May, above expectation of 8.5% yoy. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) accelerated to 7.1% yoy, up from prior month’s 6.8% yoy, and the highest rate since March 1992. CPI goods eased from 10.0% yoy to 9.7% yoy. But CPI services rose from 6.9% yoy to 7.4% yoy. For the month, CPI rose 0.7% mom, slowed from April’s 1.2% mom, but was well above expectation of 0.4% mom.

                                    Also released. RPI ticked down from 11.4% yoy to 11.3% yoy, above expectation of 11.1% yoy. PPI input came in at -1.5% mom, 0.5% yoy, versus expectation of -0.6% mom, 1.2% yoy. PPI output was at -0.5% mom, 2.9% yoy, versus expectation of -0.1% mom, 3.6% yoy. PPI output core was at -0.3% mom, 4.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 4.7% yoy.

                                    Full UK CPI release here.

                                    Australia’s Westpac leading index fell to -1.09%, weakness to extend into 2024

                                      Australia Westpac Leading Index growth rate fell from -0.78% to -1.09% in May. This is the lowest read of the growth rate since the pandemic. The tenth consecutive negative print for the index. The negative Index growth rates point to below-trend economic growth.

                                      Westpac expects the weakness to extend through 2023 and into 2024. Westpac recently revised down growth forecast 2023 and 2024, from 1% and 1.5% to 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. This weakness in the economy is centred around consumers but also reflects slowing global economy; downturn in dwelling construction; and progressive weakening in labour market.

                                      Regarding RBA policy, Westpac expects the central bank to raise cash rate by a further 0.25% at July 4 meeting. “As we saw at the June Board meeting, we expect that the July meeting will see these considerations of inflation risks again overriding concerns about the poor growth outlook.”

                                      Full Australia Westpac leading index release here.

                                      BoJ Adachi: Appropriate to continue monetary easing with YCC

                                        BoJ board member Seiji Adachi voiced support for continued monetary easing amid a climate of significant uncertainty regarding price outlook. Adachi relayed these views during a discussion with business leaders in Kagoshima.

                                        Adachi said, “My view is that it’s appropriate to continue monetary easing with the yield curve control framework.” He added, “The shape of the yield curve has become smooth overall and there is improvement in market functioning.”

                                        “Amid huge uncertainty over the price outlook, there are upside and downside risks. In the long run, however, the downside risks appear to be larger,” he warned. These risks, according to Adachi, must be carefully considered when deciding on changes to monetary policy.

                                        Adachi also noted an interesting shift in public’s perception of inflation, suggesting that Japan’s long-standing deflationary mindset is starting to change. “We’re seeing some changes in the public’s deflationary mindset, or the perception that prices won’t rise,” he said.

                                        “In a sense, we’re moving closer to achieving our price target. But there’s high uncertainty over our baseline inflation outlook, so it’s premature to tweak monetary policy,” Adachi concluded.

                                        Fed nominees Jefferson, Cook and Kugler prioritize tackling inflation

                                          Three nominees for key roles at Fed, including two sitting Fed Governors, have pledged to make tackling inflation their primary concern if their nominations are confirmed. This commitment was made in prepared remarks ahead of confirmation hearings before Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

                                          Philip Jefferson, the nominee for vice chair, recognized the multifaceted challenges facing the economy including inflation, banking-sector stress, and geopolitical instability. Jefferson said, “The Federal Reserve must remain attentive to them all. Inflation has started to abate, and I remain focused on returning it to our 2 percent target.”

                                          Lisa Cook, who is nominated for a new 14-year term, echoed Jefferson’s concerns about inflation. She stated, “The American economy is at a critical juncture, and it will be essential for the FOMC to act as needed to bring inflation back to our 2% inflation target.”

                                          Adriana Kugler, the nominee chosen by President Joe Biden to fill the vacancy left by Lael Brainard earlier this year, reiterated the same sentiment. Kugler emphasized, “If confirmed, I am deeply committed to setting monetary policy to reduce inflation and promote maximum employment, and to foster the resilience of the financial sector to support job creation and economic growth.”