NIESR estimated that UK GDP grew by 0.1% in Q1, an upgrade from prior forecasts -0.1% contraction. The early forecasts for Q2 sees quarterly growth rate picking up to 0.3%.
Paula Be jar a no Carbo Associate Economist, NIESR said: “The UK economic outlook for the first quarters of this year appears to be more resilient than previously thought, though broadly consistent with the longer-term trend of flatlining economic growth.”
US PPI for final demand dropped -0.5% mom in March, well below expectation of 0.1% mom. Two-thirds of the decline in the PPI for final demand can be attributed to a -1.0% mom decrease in prices for final demand goods. The PPI for final demand services also moved down -0.3% mom. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% mom.
For the 12 months period, PPI dropped from 4.6% yoy to 2.7% yoy, below expectation of 2.7% yoy. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services was up 3.6% yoy.
US initial jobless claims rose 11k to 239k in the week ending April 8, above expectation of 235k. That’s the highest level since January 15, 2022. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2k to 240, highest since November 20, 2021.
Continuing claims dropped -13k to 1810k in the week ending April 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 9.5k to 1814k, highest since November 13, 2021.
UK economy experienced a slowdown in February, with no monthly growth (0.0% mom) in GDP, falling short of the 0.1% mom growth expected by analysts. The disappointing result follows a 0.4% mom growth in January. The data reveals that services contracted by -0.1% mom after a 0.7% mom growth in January, while production fell by -0.2% mom following a -0.5% mom contraction in January. In contrast, construction sector saw growth of 2.4% mom, rebounding from a -1.7% mom contraction in January.
In the three months to February, GDP grew by a mere 0.1% when compared to the three months to November. During this period, services grew by 0.1%, production declined by -0.2%, and construction experienced growth of 0.9%. The lackluster performance raises concerns about the overall health of the UK economy.
Also published, industrial production came in at -0.2% mom, -3.1% yoy, versus expectation o f0.3% mom, -3.7% yoy. Manufacturing production was at 0.0%mom, -2.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.3% mom, -4.7% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -17.5B, versus expectation of GBP -17.0B.
Australian labor market continued to show strength in March, with employment growth significantly outperforming expectations. The strong employment data shows very few signs of weakness in the labor market, suggesting that RBA may need to resume tightening in May.
According to the today’s data, employment increased by 53k in seasonally adjusted terms, well above expectation of 20k gain. Full-time jobs saw an increase of 72.2k, while part-time employment declined by -19.2k.
Despite expectations of a rise to 3.6%, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5%. Additionally, the participation rate held steady at 66.7%, and monthly hours worked decreased by -0.2%. Lauren Ford, the ABS head of labor statistics, highlighted that the unemployment rate stayed at a near 50-year low of 3.5%.
Ford also noted that the employment-to-population ratio increased by 0.1 percentage point to 64.4%, with the participation rate remaining at 66.7%. Both indicators were close to their historical highs in November 2022, reflecting a tight labor market that has made it challenging for employers to fill the high number of job vacancies.
In the G7 central bank chief briefing in Japan, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda underscored the unique inflation situation in Japan compared to other countries. While elevated inflation rates are affecting many countries, Japan’s price gains are expected to slow down to below 2%, prompting the BoJ to continue its monetary easing policies.
Ueda acknowledged the possibility of Japan falling behind the curve in addressing the risk of high inflation. However, he emphasized the importance of being more focused on the risk of inflation falling short of the 2% target. He stated, “As we guide monetary policy, it is appropriate to pay more attention to the risk of inflation undershooting 2 percent and thus moving away from the goal.”
Ueda is set to have his first policy meeting on April 27-28, where he will likely further discuss Japan’s distinct inflation trajectory and the country’s monetary policy approach.
FOMC minutes from the March 21-22 meeting revealed that committee members acknowledged inflation remaining significantly above the 2% target and a tight labor market, suggesting that “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Some participants even considered a 50 basis point increase in the target range, but due to potential banking-sector developments impacting financial conditions and economic activity, they opted for a smaller increment.
The minutes note that several participants contemplated keeping the target range steady to allow more time to assess the economic effects of recent banking-sector developments and the cumulative tightening of monetary policy. However, due to Fed’s actions in coordination with other government agencies, which helped stabilize the banking sector, they deemed a 25 basis point increase appropriate in order to address elevated inflation and stay committed to the 2% longer-run goal.
The Committee agreed to consider recent banking developments in future monetary policy decisions, focusing on how they may affect employment, inflation, and the risks surrounding the outlook.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented on the CPI report released today, calling it “good news” but also noting that inflation remains elevated. She said, “Headline release showed that it’s going down, it’s going in the right direction, but it’s still elevated. It’s not consistent with price stability.” Daly emphasized her focus on core services, particularly core services minus housing, in assessing inflation trends.
Daly also commented on the labor market, observing signs of cooling but noting that it remains extremely tight, with a gradual return to balance expected. Overall, she stated, “The strength of the economy and the elevated readings on inflation suggest that there is more work to do,” adding that the extent of this work depends on several factors with considerable uncertainty.
In a CNBC interview, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin shared his thoughts on inflation, emphasizing the importance of core inflation, which is still running slightly above 5% year over year. He acknowledged recent positive news regarding energy prices but maintained that there is more work to be done to bring core inflation down to desired levels.
Although Barkin did not explicitly state his position on another rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting in May, he emphasized the importance of closely monitoring jobs and inflation data, both of which remain relatively robust.
He said, “I’m waiting for inflation to crack … It’s moving in the right direction … but in the absence of a month or two months or three months with inflation at our target, it’s hard to make the case that we’re compellingly headed there.”
Following BoC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.50%, Governor Tiff Macklem addressed concerns about the country’s economic growth during a press conference. He acknowledged the weak growth projections, stating, “We are seeing inflation come down even as the economy continues to grow. That is encouraging. But yes, we do expect growth to be weak. It’s expected to be weak through the rest of the year, pick up gradually over the course of next year.”
Regarding the potential for negative growth quarters, Macklem clarified that the central bank is forecasting “small positives,” but conceded that “you can’t rule out that there’s going to be a couple quarters of small negatives.” He emphasized that BoC is not forecasting a major contraction or significant increases in unemployment, distancing the current situation from a typical recession.
Addressing market expectations of a rate cut, Macklem said, “based on the information we have today, the implied expectation in the market that we’re going to be cutting our policy rate later in the year, that doesn’t look today like the most likely scenario to us.” This statement suggests that the central bank may not follow the market’s anticipated course of action, given the current data available.
ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann told German newspaper Boersen Zeitung that the persistence of inflation currently calls for further action: “The persistence of inflation currently argues for another 50 basis points (in May).” Holzmann emphasized that failing to act vigorously now would exacerbate the inflation problem and ultimately necessitate even stricter measures.
Holzmann also noted a consensus among ECB Governing Council members: “There is a great deal of common understanding in the ECB Governing Council that we have not yet reached the end of the line when it comes to key interest rates. We must continue to act decisively and continue to raise key interest rates noticeably even beyond May.”
In a separate occasion, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed caution regarding core inflation: “We believe core inflation provides a better signal of medium-term inflationary trends,” de Guindos said in Madrid. “Headline inflation will continue to decelerate, but on core inflation, we are not so optimistic.”
As widely expected, BoC kept overnight rate unchanged at 4.50%, with Bank Rate and deposit rate held at 4.75% and 4.50% respectively. In the statement, the BoC mentioned that the “Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.”
The central bank projects weak GDP growth through the remainder of this year, with a gradual strengthening next year. BoC now expects Canada’s economy to grow by 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024 before picking up to 2.5% in 2025.
The bank anticipates CPI inflation to fall quickly to around 3% in the middle of this year and then decline more gradually to the 2% target by the end of 2024. “Recent data is reinforcing Governing Council’s confidence that inflation will continue to decline in the next few months,” the statement noted.
However, BoC also highlighted that returning inflation to 2% “could prove to be more difficult”, as inflation expectations are coming down slowly, service price inflation and wage growth remain elevated, and corporate pricing behavior has yet to normalize.
As Dollar is sold off broadly after CPI release, a focus is now on Gold, which also jumps higher. The first hurdle is 2032.05 near term resistance. Rejection by this level, followed by break of 2006.02 support, will extend the corrective pattern from 2032.05 with another falling leg. However, firm break of 2023.05 will resume whole rally from 2022 low at 1614.60 and target 2070.06/2073.84 key resistance zone. If realized, an upside break should confirm underlying downside momentum in Dollar elsewhere.
Meanwhile, next hurdle would be 2070.06/2073.84 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption for new record highs.
EUR/USD has broken out to the upside following a lower-than-expected headline inflation reading in the US. While the uptick in core CPI still supports another rate hike by Fed in May, the overall data set raises hopes that the disinflation process is ongoing and perhaps even gathering momentum. This development bolsters the confidence of those betting on a Fed rate cut later this year.
Technically, EUR/USD is expected to face resistance at 1.1032 shortly. A decisive break above this level would resume the overall uptrend from the 2022 low of 0.9534. Next target is the 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534, which stands at 1.1273.
US CPI rose 0.1% mom in March, below expectation of 0.3% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rose 0.4% mom, matched expectations. Energy index decreased -3.5% mom while food index was unchanged.
Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 6.0% yoy to 5.0% yoy, below expectation of 5.2% yoy, marked the lowest level since June 2021. CPI core (all items less food and energy) accelerated from 5.5% yoy to 5.6% yoy, matched expectations. Energy index for down -6.4% yoy while food index rose 8.5% yoy.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau has warned of the risk of entrenched inflation yesterday, stating, “We now face the risk of entrenched inflation, which lies in the underlying or core component. In other words, inflation has become more widespread, and potentially more persistent.”
Villeroy emphasized that the ECB’s monetary policy response to rising inflation has been strong and swift. However, he also noted a shift in focus, saying, “We at the ECB are now moving from a ‘sprint’ to a ‘long-distance race’.” He added that the inflation outlook, underlying inflation readings, and the effectiveness of policy transmission will be the key factors in upcoming decisions on potential new rate hikes.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari warned that tightening credit conditions due to banking stress and monetary policy actions could lead to an economic downturn or even a recession.
He said, “It could be that our monetary policy actions and the tightening of credit conditions because of this banking stress lead to an economic downturn. That might even lead to a recession.”
Kashkari acknowledged that bond markets seem to expect a quick drop in inflation, allowing Fed to cut rates. However, he expressed less optimism, predicting inflation to reach “the mid threes” by the end of the year, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Regarding recent financial stress, Kashkari cautiously noted that there are hopeful signs that risks are better understood and calm is being restored, but he is not yet ready to declare all clear.
Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker expressed his support for raising interest rates above 5% and then assessing the impact on inflation. He noted yesterday, “I’m in the camp of getting up above 5 and then sitting there for a while.”
Harker acknowledged that recent inflation readings showed a slow disinflation process, which he described as “disappointing.” Despite this, he pointed out promising signs that Fed’s rate hikes are working.
He stated, “If we see inflation not budging, then I think we’ll have to take more action. But at this point, I don’t see why we would just continue to go up, up, up and then go, whoops! And then go down, down, down very quickly. Let’s sit there.”
Harker also emphasized the commitment to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target and highlighted that the full impact of monetary policy actions could take up to 18 months to work through the economy. He said, “We will continue to look closely at available data to determine what, if any, additional actions we may need to take.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stressed the importance of a cautious approach to monetary policy during times of financial stress. He stated yesterday, “At moments like this, of financial stress, the right monetary approach calls for prudence and patience – for assessing the potential impact of financial stress on the real economy.”
Goolsbee highlighted the need to understand credit tightening before Fed’s next meeting in May, saying, “The foremost thing on my mind before our next meeting in May is trying to get a handle on this question about credit: is it actually credit tightening?”
Emphasizing the current uncertainty, Goolsbee urged caution, adding, “We should gather further data and be careful about raising rates too aggressively until we see how much work the headwinds are doing for us in getting down inflation.” He noted that if the response to recent banking issues leads to financial tightening, “monetary policy has to do less.”
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Bundesbank Nagel: Monetary-policy have to stubborn to fight against inflation
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, in an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of the IMF Spring Meetings, described euro-zone price gains as “a very stubborn phenomenon” and emphasized the need for persistent action against inflation. Nagel stated, “it’s definitely the case that we on the monetary-policy side have to be even more stubborn to fight against inflation.”
Nagel acknowledged the necessity to do more on the inflation front, explaining that while headline inflation might be heading in the right direction, core inflation remains at a very elevated level. He expects core inflation to come down before summer but warned that it would likely stay at high levels for the next few months, requiring continued vigilance in addressing the inflation issue.
Regarding the German economy, Nagel expressed confidence in its ability to adapt and overcome challenges, stating that “the energy crisis is more or less solved.” He added, “We had a really worried situation in the past, but this is now over, and the outlook is good.