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NASDAQ completed double bottom, investors responded well to Fed

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    NASDAQ closed strongly up by 2.00% overnight to close at 11816.31. Fed’s 25bps rate hike was well received by investors, with Chair Jerome Powell admitting that “we can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.”

    Suggested readings on FOMC:

    NASDAQ’s break of 11571.64 resistance completes a double bottom pattern (10088.82, 10207.47). Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 11043.84) holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 16212.22 to 10088.82 at 12427.95.

    It’s still a bit early to tell if NASDAQ is in correction to the down trend from 16212.22, or in bullish reversal. Key level lies in 13181.08 cluster resistance, 50% retracement at 13150.52. Reactions from there will reveal which case it is.

    EUR/USD upside breakout as Fed Powell said disinflationary process has started

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      US stocks staged a reversal while EUR/USD broke out to the upside on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post meeting press conference.

      Powell did note that “Inflation is not over, and neither is the Fed’s battle against it.” However, he also mentioned, “we can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.”

      “It is a good thing that the disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of the labor market,” he also said.

      Without any drastic surprises, Fed seems on track to pause tightening with two more 25bps rate hike.

      EUR/USD breaks 1.0928 resistance decisively to resume the up trend from 0.9534. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0800 support holds, in case of retreat. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164. The real test will lie in resistance zone between 1.0482 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Attention should be paid to topping signal inside this 1.1164/1273 resistance zone.

       

      Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference live stream

        By
        ActionForex
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        YouTube

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        Fed hikes 25bps to 4.50-4.75%, ongoing tightening appropriate

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Fed raises federal funds rate by 25bps to 4.50-4.75% as widely expected by unanimous vote.

          Tightening bias is maintained as “the Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time”.

          Regarding the economy, FOMC said, “Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.”

          Full FOMC statement here.

          US ISM manufacturing dropped to 47.4, corresponds to -0.5% annualized GDP contraction

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped further from 48.4 to 47.4 in January, below expectation of 48.7. Looking at some details, new orders dropped from 45.1 to 42.5. Production dropped from 48.6 to 48.0. Employment dropped from 50.8 to 50.6. Prices rose from 5.1 to 39.4.

            ISM said: “The U.S. manufacturing sector again contracted, with the Manufacturing PMI® at its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic recovery began. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous nine months, the January composite index reading reflects companies slowing outputs to better match demand in the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the second half of the year.”

            “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for January (47.4 percent) corresponds to a -0.5-percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

            Full release here.

            US ADP employment grew 106k Jan, disrupted by weather

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              US ADP private employment grew 106k in January, below expectation of 168k. By sector, goods-producing jobs dropped -3k. Service-providing jobs rose 109k. BY establishment size, small companies cut -75k jobs, but medium companies added 64k and large added 128k. Pay growth for job stayers was held at 7.3% yoy for the second month, with most industries little changed.

              Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP said: “In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week. Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year.”

              Full release here.

              Eurozone CPI slowed sharply to 8.5% yoy in Jan, core unchanged at 5.2% yoy

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Eurozone CPI slowed sharply from 9.2% yoy to 8.5% yoy in January, well below expectation of 9.0% yoy. CPI core (all items less energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unchanged at 5.2% yoy, above expectations of 5.1% yoy.

                Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (17.2%, compared with 25.5% in December), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (14.1%, compared with 13.8% in December), non-energy industrial goods (6.9%, compared with 6.4% in December) and services (4.2%, compared with 4.4% in December).

                Full release here.

                UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 47 in Jan, some shoots of positivity developing

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.0 in January, up from December’s 31-month low of 45.3. S&P Global noted that output and new orders fell across all three product categories. Input price inflation eased to 27-month low.

                  Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:“There were some shoots of positivity developing, however. Rates of contraction are generally lower than before the turn of the year, a possible sign that we may be past the worst of the downturn in industry.

                  “Cost inflation also eased further, while supply chain delays were the least pronounced for three years. Manufacturers’ confidence is also reviving from recent lows, hitting a nine-month high, though the mood continued to be darkened by concerns about inflation and the possibility of recession.”

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.8 in Jan, picture considerably brighter

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 48.8 in January, up from December’s 47.8, also a 5-month high. Manufacturing Output index was finalized at 48.9, up from December’s 47.8, a 7-month high.

                    Readings in all member states improved, including France at 50.5 (5-month high), Italy at 50.4 (7-month high), Ireland at 50.1 (3-month high), the Netherlands at 49.6 (5-month high), Greece at 49.2 (4-month high), Austria at 48.4 (4-month high), Spain at 48.4 (4-month high), and Germany at 47.3 (4-month high).

                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Although euro area manufacturers continued to report falling output and deteriorating order books in January, sustaining the sector’s downturn for an eighth successive month, the picture is considerably brighter than the lows seen back in last October heading into the winter. Not only has the rate of output decline moderated now for three consecutive months, but business optimism about the year ahead has also surged higher over the past three months.”

                    Full release here.

                    Risk sentiment resilient ahead of FOMC rate hike, some previews

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Fed is widely expected to continue to slow down its tightening pace today, and raise interest rate by 25bps to 4.50-4.75%. The accompanying statement should clearly indicate that the work is not done yet on fighting inflation. Such message should be echoed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference.

                      Fed fund futures are now pricing in another 25bps rate hike to 4.75-5.00% in March. But the main questions are, firstly, whether rate will peak above or below 5% level, and secondly, for how long it will stay there. No concrete answer would be provided at least until new economic projections to be published in March.

                      Here are some suggested readings on FOMC:

                      Overall risk sentiment has been resilient going into FOMC announcement. For now, further rise is in favor in S&P 500 as long as 55 day EMA (now at 3934.97) holds. Decisive break of 41.00.51 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 3491.58 low. Further break of 61.8% projection of 3491.58 to 4100.51 from 3764.49 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection of 3491.58 to 4100.51 from 3764.49 at 4373.42, even as a bear market rally. If that happens, risk-on sentiment would continue to cap any rebound attempt of Dollar.

                      China Caixin PMI manufacturing ticked up to 49.2, optimism improving

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        China Caixin PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 49.0 to 49.2 in January. Caixin noted there were softer falls in output and new orders. Supply chain pressures eased. Confidence around the outlook hit the highest level since April 2021.

                        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Overall, the pandemic continued to take a toll on the economy in January. Supply and demand weakened, overseas demand was sluggish, employment declined, and logistics hadn’t fully recovered, while the quantity of purchases shrank, inventories dropped, and manufacturers faced growing pressure on profitability. But optimism in the sector continued to improve as businesses expected a post-Covid economic recovery.”

                        Full release here.

                        Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.9 in Jan, but some positive signals

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 48.9 in January, unchanged from January’s 48.9. S&P Global also noted that reductions in output and new orders were slowest since last October. Supply chain disruptions were least widespread for nearly two years. Prices charged inflation cooled to its lowest for 16 months.

                          Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Subdued global economic conditions continued to hold back customer demand across the Japanese manufacturing sector in January, but there were a number of positive signals from the latest PMI survey. The rates of decline for output and new orders were the smallest since last October, whilst marginal employment growth was maintained as manufacturers sought to boost capacity in line with long-term investment plans.”

                          Full release here.

                          NZ employment rose 0.2% in Q4, unemployment rate rose to 3.4%

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            New Zealand employment rose 0.2% in Q4, below expectation of 0.3%. Employment rate was unchanged at 69.3%. Unemployment rate rose from 3.3% to 3.4%, above expectation of 3.3%. Participation rate was unchanged at 71.7%. Labor cost index rose 1.1% qoq, below expectation of 1.3% qoq.

                            “The unemployment rate, as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), has remained at or near historic lows since the September 2021 quarter,” work and wellbeing statistics senior manager Becky Collett said.

                            Full release here.

                            Canada GDP rose 0.1% mom in Nov, to be essentially flat in Dec

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in November, matched expectations. Services-producing industries expanded 0.2% mom while goods-producing industries contracted -0.1% mom. 14 of 20 industrial sectors increased in the month.

                              Advance information indicates that real GDP was essentially unchanged in December. Also for Q4, GDP growth should be 0.4% qoq, 3.8% yoy.

                              Full release here.

                              Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq, 1.9% yoy in Q4,

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, better than expectation of -0.2% qoq. Comparing to the same quarter a year ago, GDP rose 1.9% yoy. EU GDP was flat qoq in Q4, up 1.8% yoy. Annual growth in 2022 was 3.5% in Eurozone and 3.6% in EU.

                                Among the Member States for which data are available for the fourth quarter of 2022, Ireland (+3.5%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia (+0.3%), Spain and Portugal (both +0.2%). The highest declines were recorded in Lithuania (-1.7%) as well as in Austria (-0.7%) and Sweden (-0.6%).

                                The year-on-year growth rates were positive for all countries except for Sweden (-0.6%) and Lithuania (-0.4%).

                                Full release here.

                                IMF expects inflation to fall in 2023/24, year head a turning point

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  In the new World Economic Outlook report, IMF said global inflation will fall in 2023 and 2024 amid supar economic growth.

                                  Global growth is projected to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 (revised up by 0.2%), and then rise back to 3.1% in 2024. Global inflation is projected to fall from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023, and then 4.3% in 2024, staying above pre-pandmeic levels of about 3.5%.

                                  “The year ahead will still be challenging… but it could well represent a turning point with growth bottoming out and inflation declining,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.

                                  “The fight against inflation is not yet won,” Gourinchas warned. And it’s “premature to put too much weight on that sort of benign scenario” where prices cool on their own.

                                  France GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, up 2.6% in 2022

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    France GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, better than expectation of 0.0% qoq. On average over the year 2022, GDP increased by 2.6% (after +6.8% in 2021 and -7.9% in 2020).

                                    This annual growth figure was essentially the result of the rebound in activity in the second and third quarters of 2021, as the health crisis receded. Quarter-on-quarter growth was significantly less dynamic over the year 2022. The growth overhang for 2023 stands at +0.3% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022.

                                    Full release here.

                                    China official PMI manufacturing rose to 50.1, non-manufacturing up to 54.4

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      China official PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.0 to 50.1 in December, slightly below expectation of 50.2. PMI Non-Manufacturing jumped from 41.6 to 54.4, above expectation of 51.0. Both indexes were also back in expansion region.

                                      Senior NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe noted that economic activity returned to expansion amid an improvement in the business operation climate and the situation.

                                      “Meanwhile, many companies in the manufacturing and services sectors still reported a lack of market demand is the major concern for their businesses. The foundation of economic recovery still needs to be further consolidated,” he added.

                                      Australia retail sales turnover down sharply by -3.9% mom in Dec

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Australia retail sales turnover dropped sharply by -3.9% mom to AUD 34.47m in December, much worse than expectation of -0.3% mom. That’s the first contraction after 11 straight months of growth. Still, sales turnover remained elevated at its sixth highest level on record, and was up 7.5% yoy for the year.

                                        Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “The large fall in December suggests that retail spending is slowing due to high cost-of-living pressures… The latest Consumer Price Index showed that prices continued to rise strongly in the December quarter. To see the effect of consumer prices on recent turnover growth, it will be important to look at quarterly retail sales volumes which we will release next week.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan industrial production declined -0.1% mom in Dec, but expected to rebound

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Japan industrial production declined -0.1% mom in December, much better than expectation of -0.8% mom. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry retained the assessment from the previous month that industrial production is “weakening.” 10 of the 15 industries surveyed, reported decline in output, four reported increase, and one remained unchanged.

                                          Based on a poll of manufacturers, the ministry expects output to remain flat in January, and then grow 4.1% in February. A ministry official said, “we still need to keep a close eye on the influence of a potential spread in coronavirus infections, material shortages and high prices.”

                                          Also released, retail sales rose 3.8% yoy in December, above expectation of 3.1% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5%. housing starts dropped -1.7% yoy. COnsumer confidence rose from 30.3 to 31.0 in January.

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