Australian Dollar surges broadly after much stronger than expected CPI reading in December in particular dented any hope for an imminent RBA pause. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar is just mixed as CPI didn’t accelerate as RBNZ projected, raising hope of a lower terminal rate.
AUD/NZD breaks through 1.0935 resistance to resume the whole rally from 1.0469. The support from 55 day EMA is seen as a near term bullish favor. Further rise is now expected as long as 1.0735 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0469 to 1.0935 from 1.0735 at 1.1023. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.1201 next.
AUD/CAD also breaks through 0.9442 temporary top to resume the rally from 0.8596. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9279 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8596 to 0.9328 from 0.9142 at 0.9594. Sustained break there would also prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9874 next.





















BoC Previews: One more insurance hike before pausing
BoC is expected to deliver an “insurance” rate hike of 25bps today, to bring policy rate to 4.50%. After this eighth consecutive increase, the central bank is expected to pause the tightening cycle.
It’s already indicated in the December statement that the bank will be “considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further”. BoC should more explicitly indicate that it’s now the time to let pass rate hikes work through the economy.
The question would then shift to the time interest rate is going to stay at this level, but no answer is expected any time soon.
Here are some previews on BoC:
CAD/JPY has been losing downside momentum for some time, as seen in daily MACD and a bounce is overdue. Yet, even in case of a rebound, strong resistance could be seen between 55 day EMA (now at 99.65) and 38.2% retracement of 110.33 to 94.61 at 100.61 to cap upside. Until 100.61 is taken out decisively, any bounce is more of a short opportunity than a turnaround.