Fed Harker: Hikes of 25 appropriate going forward

    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday, “I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed.” “Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward,” he said. And, “let’s get above 5% and sit there for a while”.

    While risks to inflation remain on the upside, he noted, “we are starting to see inflation come down across a spectrum of goods.” He expects core inflation to decline to 3.5% this year, and 2.5% next, then get back to target in 2025. He also said the economy should grow 1% this year, without falling into recession.

     

    Fed Mester: We’re not at 5% yet, we need to keep going

      Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, said in an AP interview, “We’re beginning to see the kind of actions that we need to see… Good signs that things are moving in the right direction … That’s important input into how we’re thinking about where policy needs to go.”

      “We’re starting to see our policy actions do what they’re intended to do,” she said. “But I do believe we have to continue raising … and then hold for a while so that we get back to price stability in a timely way.”

      “We’re not at 5% yet, we’re not above 5%, which I think is going to be needed given where my projections are for the economy,” she said. “I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do.”

      Fed Bullard: Rates almost restrictive, but not quite there yet

        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an online WSJ interview, “we’re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive – we’re not quite there yet.”

        Fed will wants to make sure that inflation will fall back to 2% target. “We don’t want to waiver on that,” he said.

        “Policy has to stay on the tighter side during 2023” as the disinflationary process unfolds, he added.

        He still sees rates at 5.25-5.50% range at the end of the year.

        US PPI at -0.5% mom, 6.2% yoy in Dec

          US PPI for final demand declined -0.5% mom in December, below expectation of -0.1% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI slowed form 7.3% yoy to 6.2% yoy, below expectation of 6.8% yoy. For the 12-month period, PPI slowed form 7.3% yoy to 6.2% yoy, below expectation of 6.8% yoy.

          For the month, Goods prices fell -1.6% mom while services rose 0.1% mom. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% mom.

          Full release here.

          US retail sales down -1.1% mom in Dec, ex-auto sales down -1.1% mom

            US retail sales declined -1.1% mom to USD 677.1B in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -1.1% mom to USD 552.7B, versus expectation of -0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales fell -0.8% mom to USD 617.6B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales contracted -0.7% mom to USD 493.1B.

            Total sales for the 12 months of 2022 were up 9.2% from 2021. For the October through December period, sales were up 6.7% from the same period a years ago.

            Full release here.

            Eurozone CPI finalized at 9.2% yoy in Dec, core CPI at 5.2% yoy

              Eurozone CPI was finalized at 9.2% yoy in December, down from November’s 10.1% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.2% yoy, up from prior month’s 5.0% yoy. The highest contribution came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.88%), followed by energy (+2.79%), services (+1.83%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.70%).

              EU CPI was finalized at 10.4% yoy, down from prior month’s 11.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Spain (5.5%), Luxembourg (6.2%) and France (6.7%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (25.0%), Latvia (20.7%) and Lithuania (20.0%). Compared with November, annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States, remained stable in two and rose in three.

              Full release here.

              ECB Villeroy: Lagarde’s 50bps guidance still valid

                ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said “we will have good news on headline inflation because energy prices are going down,”

                But on interest rates, he said President Christine Lagarde’s earlier 50bps guidance is “still valid”. He added that it’s too early to speculate on the size of March rate hike.

                Also, Villeroy emphasized, “we must stay the course in battle against inflation”, adding, he “cannot say where the terminal rate will be but should be there by the summer.”

                BoJ Kuroda: We don’t need to further expand the band around yield target

                  At the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “We don’t need to further expand the band around our yield target…. It’s been not long since we decided on our measures in December. It will likely take some more time for the measures to start having an effect in fixing market function. With our flexible market operations, however, we expect market function to improve ahead… YCC is, therefore, likely to be sustainable.”

                  “Uncertainty regarding Japan’s economy is very high. It’s necessary to support the economy with our stimulus policy, to ensure companies can raise wages. By maintaining ultra-easy policy, we will strive to achieve our price target stably and sustainably accompanied by wage hikes,” he noted.

                  “Unlike in the past, we expect wages to rise quite a bit, when listening to comments from the business and labour union executives,” Kuroda said. “The pace of wage hikes is accelerating. But this is something we haven’t seen in the past… So we’re not 100% sure (whether) wages will indeed rise.”

                  UK CPI slowed to 10.5% yoy in Dec, core CPI unchanged at 6.3% yoy

                    UK CPI rose 0.4% mom in December, matched expectations. In the 12 months, CPI slowed from 10.7% yoy to 10.5% yoy slightly below expectation of 10.6% yoy. CPI core was unchanged at 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. RPI rose 0.6% mom, 13.4% yoy, below expectation of 1.0% mom, 13.9% yoy.

                    ONS said: “The largest downward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between November and December 2022 came from transport (particularly motor fuels), clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture, with rising prices in restaurants and hotels, and food and non-alcoholic beverages making the largest partially offsetting upward contributions.”

                    Full release here.

                    BoJ keeps yield cap unchanged, downgrades growth forecast

                      BoJ kept the yield curve control unchanged today, disappointing some who bet for a tweak. Short term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. The central will continue to purchase JGBs, without setting an upper limit, to keep 10-year yield at around 0%. The range 10-year JGB yield allowed to fluctuate is also kept at around plus and minus 0.50%. The decision was made by unanimous vote.

                      In the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices:

                      • Forecasts of real GDP growth were downgraded across horizon, with fiscal 2022 down from 2.0% to 1.9%, fiscal 2023 down from 1.9% to 1.7%, fiscal 2024 down from 1.5% to 1.1%.
                      • Forecast of CPI core (all item less fresh food) for fiscal 2022 was raised from 2.9% to 3.0%, fiscal 2023 unchanged at 1.6%, and fiscal 2024 raised from 1.6% to 1.8%.
                      • Forecast of CPI core-core (all item less fresh food and energy) for fiscal 2022 was raised from 1.8% to 2.1%, fiscal 2023 raised from 1.6% to 1.8%, and fiscal 2024 unchanged at 1.6%.

                      Full statement here.

                      Full Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.

                      Fed Barkin: You just can’t declare victory too soon

                        Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Fox Business yesterday that recent inflation reports have been encourage. But the median CPI is “still too high” and, “you just can’t declare victory too soon.”

                        “I would want to see inflation compellingly back to our target” before easing up on rate hikes, he said. Meanwhile the terminal rate will be dependent on the “path of inflation”.

                        Euro tumbles on report that ECB considering smaller hike in Mar

                          Euro tumbles broadly after Bloomberg reported, quoting unnamed source, that ECB is pondering slower rate hike after 50bps in February. It noted that “the prospect of a smaller 25-point increase at the following meeting in March is gaining support”.

                          EUR/CHF’s break of 0.9953 resistance turned support now raising the chance of at least a deeper correction. For now, 38.2% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9832. Reaction from there would reveal whether EUR/CHF could defend its near term bullishness.

                          Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is heading back to 0.8768 support. Reaction from there will also reveal whether rebound from 0.8545 has completed at 0.8896 already.

                          Canada CPI slowed to 6.3% yoy, core down to 5.3% yoy

                            Canada CPI slowed from 6.8% yoy to 6.3% yoy in December, matched expectations. Excluding food and energy, CPI Core slowed from 5.4% yoy to 5.3% yoy.

                            CPI median dropped from 5.1% yoy to 5.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.9% yoy. CPI trimmed dropped from 5.4% yoy to 5.3% yoy, above expectation of 5.2% yoy. CPI common dropped from 6.8% yoy to 6.6% yoy, matched expectations.

                            On a monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.6% mom, largest monthly decline since April 2020. The fall was mostly driven by gasoline prices, which also posted their largest monthly decline since April 2020.

                            Full release here.

                            Germany ZEW jumped to 16.9, positive again after a year

                              Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped sharply from -23.3 to 16.9 in January, well above expectation of -15.5. That’s also the first positive reading in a year since February 2022. Current Situation improved from -61.4 to -58.6, below expectation of -57.0.

                              Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment surged from-23.6 to 16.7, well above expectation of -14.3. Current Situation rose 2.6 pts to -54.8.

                              ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said: “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment signals a positive outlook again in January. For the first time since February 2022, the month in which the war in Ukraine began, the indicator points to a noticeable improvement in the economic situation over the next six months.

                              “The more favourable situation on the energy markets and the German government’s energy price caps have contributed to this in particular. In addition, export conditions for the German economy are improving due to China’s lifting of Covid-restrictions.

                              “Accordingly, the earnings expectations of the export-oriented and energy-intensive sectors have gone up significantly. The prospect that the inflation rate will continue to fall has brightened expectations for the consumer-related sectors.”

                              Full release here.

                              ECB Centeno: The economy surprises quarter after quarter

                                ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said, at a panel at the World Economic Forum, the a recession is not a foregone conclusion.

                                The Eurozone economy “has been surprising us quarter after quarter,” he said. “The fourth quarter in Europe will be most likely still positive. Maybe we’ll be surprised also in the first half of the year.”

                                Meanwhile, Centeno pledged that ECB will continue to fight inflation.

                                UK payrolled employment rose 28k in Dec, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% in Nov

                                  In December, UK payrolled employment rose 28k or 0.1% mom to 29.9m. That’s a rise of 2.3% yoy or 676k over the 12-month period. ONS also noted that the number employees were rising in line with pre-pandemic trends. Median monthly pay rose 7.7% yoy to GBP 2194. Claimant count rose 19.7k.

                                  In the three months November, unemployment rate was at 3.7%, 0.2% points higher than the previous three-month period, but 0.3% below pre-pandemic levels. Employment rate was unchanged at 75.6%. Economic inactivity rate was down -0.1% to 21.5%. Both average earnings including bonus and excluding bonus rose 6.4% 3moy.

                                  Full release here.

                                  ECB Lane: Interest rates have to be higher under vast majority of scenarios

                                    ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an FT interview published today, “we’re not yet at the level of interest rates needed to bring inflation back to 2 per cent in a timely manner”, and “it still requires work”.

                                    Under the “vast majority” of the scenarios, “interest rates do have to be higher than they are now”. “Risks are not yet two-sided, and under a wide range of scenarios, it’s still safe to bring interest rates above where they are now,” he said.

                                    “The question is how do you get from mid-threes at the end of 2023 to the 2% target in a timely manner,” Lane said. “That’s where interest rate policy is going to be important… to make sure that the last kilometer of returning to target is delivered.”

                                    Lane also noted, the self-reinforcing low inflation environment in Eurozone was gotten rid of as a “byproduct” of the inflation shock. He added, “the chronic low-inflation equilibrium we had before the pandemic will return.”

                                    China GDP growth slowed to 2.9% yoy in Q4, but beat expectations

                                      China’s GDP growth slowed to 2.9% yoy in Q4, down from Q3’s 3.9% yoy but beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. For 2022 as a whole, GDP grew 3.0%, sharply lower than 2021’s 8.4%, but was better than 2020’s 2.2%. That’s still the second worst on record nonetheless.

                                      In December, industrial production rose 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 0.3% yoy. Retail sales declined -1.8% yoy, much better than expectation of -9.5% yoy. Fixed asset investment grew 5.1% ytd yoy, above expectation of 5.1%.

                                      “The foundation of domestic economic recovery is not solid as the international situation is still complicated and severe while the domestic triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations is still looming,” NBS said in a release.

                                      Also released, China’s population decreased by -850k in 2022, the first contraction in more than six decades. Birthrate was at 6.77 births per 1000 people, sharply down from 2021’s 7.52 births, and marked the lowest level on record. Death rate rose from 7.18 to 7.37 per 1000 people, highest since 1976.

                                      Australia Westpac consumer sentiment rose 5% in Jan

                                        Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose 5.0% mom to 84.3 in January, the largest monthly gain since April 2021. It’s also the second straight month of improvement, with combined rise of 8.1%. Current Conditions index rose 2.8% mom while Expectations Index rose 6.3% mom. Unemployment Expectations also improved 8.4% mom.

                                        Westpac said: “One likely explanation for the lift in confidence is that January was the first month since April last year that did not see an increase in the RBA cash rate. While that was because there was no RBA Board meeting in the month rather than an explicit decision by the Bank to leave rates unchanged, the break in the tightening cycle looks to have provided some relief.”

                                        Regarding RBA rate decision, Westpac expects another 25bps hike on February. It also expects clear message from RBA that the February increase will not be the last in the tightening cycle, because of a lift in annual inflation, strong retail sales growth and ongoing tight labor market.

                                        Full release here.

                                        NZ NZIER business sentiment hit record low

                                          New Zealand NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed, in Q4 on a seasonally adjusted basis, a net 73% of businesses expect general economic conditions to deteriorate over the coming months. That’s the worst level in the survey’s history.

                                          A net 13% of businesses reported a decline in their own activity over the past quarter, worst since Q2 2020 during the full impact of the first pandemic lockdown. A net 33% expected decline in activity in the coming quarter.

                                          “Firms have also reduced investment plans substantially, particularly when it comes to investment in buildings,” NZIER said. Retail businesses were feeling “very downbeat”, it found.

                                          Full release here.