Tue, Apr 16, 2024 @ 17:30 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 249

Live Comments

Most popular

NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 34.7, patchy economy

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence fell from 36.6 to 34.7 in February. Own activity outlook rose from 25.6 to 29.5. Inflation expectations fell from 4.28% to 4.03%. Pricing intentions eased from 50% to 48%, continuing their sideways trend of recent months. Cost expectations fell from 75.6 to 73.5. Wages expectation fell from 81.4 to 78.9.

    ANZ’s describes the economy as “patchy,” with visible “green shoots” in some sectors, yet acknowledges the “ongoing challenges” facing other segments. The survey does not imply the “economy is rolling over” or that “inflation has been beaten”.

    Full ANZ business confidence release here.

    US oil inventories dropped -6.9m barrels, OPEC cuts 2020 demand forecasts

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by -6.9m barrels in the week ending September 6, larger that expectation of -2.7m barrels. At 416.1m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.

      Separately, OPEC lowered 2020 oil demand forecasts due to economic slowdown. OPEC expected oil demand worldwide would expand by 1.08 million barrels per day, 60,000 bpd less than previously estimated. It also noted that next year’s increase in oil demand would be outpaced by “strong” growth in supply. At the same time, it lower global growth forecasts in 2020 to 3.1%, down from 3.2%.

      WTI crude oil dips mildly in early US session in responses to the news. Overall, it’s staying in range of 50.43/60.93. Recent corrective price actions suggest that range trading is set to continue.

      Mid-US update: Yen selloff extends as US treasury yields surge

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        Yen’s selloff extends in US session as risk appetite dominate the US markets while treasury yields also surge. Sterling follows as the second weakest. On the other hand, Australian Dollar continues to lead New Zealand and Canadian Dollar higher. The news of US tariffs and China’s retaliation are generally shrugged off by investors.

        At the time of writing, DOW is trading up 0.52%, S&P 500 up 0.60% and NASDAQ up 1.02%. In Europe, German DAX gained 0.40%, CAC up 0.21% but FTSE closed slightly down by -0.08%. Despite Dollar’s sluggishness, Gold continues to trade in tight range and struggles to hold above 1200 handle.

        We’d attribute the selloff in Yen to strength in US treasury yields. In particular, rally is stronger in the long end. At the time of writing, 30-year yield is up 0.040, 10-year yield is up 0.032 and 5-year yield is up 0.022. This is certainly a development Fed officials would love to see.

        10-year yield (TNX) took out 3.016 resistance this week and momentum persists. Now, further rise is likely towards 3.115 key resistance. We’re not too convinced that this key level could be taken out. So, we’d start to look for topping signal as TNX approaches 3.115. Accompanying it, we would likely see USD/JPY having a take on 113.17 resistance.

        DOW hits new record as focus turns to non-farm payrolls

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          US non-farm payroll report will be a main focus today. Markets are expecting strong 950k growth in April, with unemployment rate down from 6.0% to 5.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.1% mom. Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing dropped from 59.6 to 55.1, but stayed well in expansion. ISM services employment rose from 57.2 to 58.8. ADP employment showed 742k growth. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped to 560k. Overall, it’s just a matter of how strong the job market rebound had been.

          DOW outperformed other major US indices and surged 0.93% to new record high at 34548.53 overnight. The strong close suggests that up trend is maintaining solid momentum. We’d expect current rise to target 100% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 37129.47 next. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 33687.01 support holds.

          BoJ Kuroda and Maeda: Medium- and long-term inflation expectations improving

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke at a branch manager meeting today. He expressed the an upbeat view on inflation. Kuroda noted improving output gap as well as heightening medium- to long-term inflation expectations. Thus, He expected “inflation accelerate as a trend and head toward 2 percent.” Also, “Japan’s economy is expected to continue expanding moderately”. Nonetheless, Kuroda maintained that the ultra loose monetary policy needs to be maintained “until needed to stably and sustainably achieve” its target.

            Separately, BOJ Executive Director Eiji Maeda told the parliament that “medium- and long-term inflation expectations are recently emerging from weaknesses. Also “wages and inflation are rising moderately.” Maeda also said that “Japan’s economy is making steady progress toward achieving the BOJ’s 2 percent inflation target”.

            NZD/USD pressing channel support, could it bounce from here?

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              In recent weeks, the antipodean currencies have encountered turbulent waters, contending for the title of the month’s poorest performers. Reserve Banks of both Australia and New Zealand are widely perceived to have reached the peaks of their ongoing tightening cycles. In contrast, ECB and BoE (and less certaintly Fed) seem poised for further rate hikes. Also, the broader sentiment, underpinned by belief that global interest rates may remain elevated longer than previously anticipated, has notably dampened risk appetites.

              However, recent economic concerns stemming from China have played a pivotal role in the accelerated depreciation of these currencies in the last fortnight. China’s less-than-stellar economic recovery post its stringent Covid lockdowns, coupled with looming deflation risks and challenges in its property and finance sectors, have further intensified the pressure on the antipodean currencies. Additionally, PBoC milder than anticipated rate cut today further dampened sentiments towards these currencies.

              Technically speaking, however, there is prospect of a near term bounce in NZD/USD, given that it’s now pressing a medium term channel support on oversold condition. Break above 0.5995 resistance will trigger a rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6117). However, deeper decline and firm break of 100% projection of 0.6537 to 0.5984 from 0.6410 at 0.5857 could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.5515, which is close to 0.5511 long term support (2022 low).

              Australia expects resource and energy export earnings to make successive records this year and next

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in a new quarterly report that resources and energy exports earnings are expected deliver two successive record years in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, before falling slightly in 2023-24 to a third highest ever figure.

                Resources and energy export earnings are estimated to be at AUD 405B in 2021-22, AUD 419B in 2022-23, and then notably lower at AUD 338B in 2023-24. The growth was mainly driven by higher prices as volume would remain below 2019-20 high throughout the forecast period.

                Full report here.

                BoE: Coronavirus economic shock should ultimately prove temporary

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  BoE voted unanimously to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1%, as well as keeping asset purchase target at GBP 645B. The MPC will “continue to monitor the situation closely and, consistent with its remit, stands ready to respond further as necessary to guard against an unwarranted tightening in financial conditions, and support the economy.”

                  The central bank said that the “nature of the economic shock” from coronavirus pandemic is “very different from” those the central bank has previously had to respond to. The “scale and duration” will be “large and sharp but should ultimately prove temporary”. Monetary policy is now aimed at “guarding against an unwarranted tightening in financial conditions and, more broadly, supporting businesses and households through the crisis and limiting any lasting damage to the economy.”

                  Full statement here.

                  Swiss KOF dropped to 63.5, all indicator groups pushing the barometer downward

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 63.5 in April, down from 91.7, above expectation of 58.0. Nevertheless, that’s still a historical decline, sharper than that in 2009 financial crisis.

                    KOF said: “Currently, nearly all indicator groups are pushing the barometer sharply downward. The decline is led by the indicators for the manufacturing industry and other services. However, the indicators for the accommodation and food service activities, foreign demand, construction, consumption and for financial and insurance service providers are also heavily in the red.

                    Also released, real retail sales dropped -5.6% yoy in March, below expectation of -3.6% yoy.

                    Fed Mester: There’s some leveling off in economic recovery

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said economic activity started to come back pretty well after reopening in May. However, “over the past week or so, there’s been some leveling off, and I think it’s probably due to the increase in cases not only in Ohio but across the country.”

                      “It’s going to be a long road back to where we were in February,” she said. “That’s why the Fed has been saying we’re here with our tools and we anticipate having very accommodative monetary policy for quite some time in the future, because it’s just going to take a long time to work through this.”

                      Australia consumer confidence plunged back near April low

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Australia Westpac consumer confidence dropped -9.5% to 79.5 in August, down from 87.9. Westpac said “the scale of the fall comes as a major surprise” and it’s now back near the “extreme low” of 75.6 made in April. Nevertheless, that could prove to be a “significant overreaction” to the return to lockdown.

                        Westpac expects RBA to maintain current policies in the upcoming September 1 meeting. The next major event would be the Commonwealth Budget in October 6. As the consumer sentiment survey highlights the uncertainties around the current outlook, Westpac expects the government commit to providing “generous ongoing support the the economy”.

                        Full release here.

                        German Ifo rose to 92.6, on road to recovery

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          German Ifo Business Climates rose to 92.6 in August, up from 90.5, above expectation of 92.0. Current Assessment index rose to 87.9, up from 84.5, above expectation of 87.0. Expectations index rose to 97.5, up from 97.0, missed expectation of 98.1.

                          Ifo said, “companies assessed their current business situation markedly more positively than last month. Their expectations were also slightly more optimistic. The German economy is on the road to recovery.”

                          Looking at some details, services posted marked improve to 7.8, up from 2.1. Service providers are “decidedly happier”. Manufacturing rose to -5.4, up from -12.1, but stayed negative as “many industrial companies still consider their current business to be poor”. Upward trend in trade “flattened noticeably, just edged higher to -4.8, up from -5.1. Construction rose from -2.5 to 0.0.

                          Full release here.

                          Canada united against Trump administration’s disparaging ad hominem statements

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Canada House of Commons displayed rare political unity an passed a unanimous motion standing by the government on retaliation against US steel tariffs, and reject personal attack on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

                            The motion is introduced by NDP’s Tracey Ramsey. The House “strongly opposes the illegitimate tariffs imposed by the United States government against Canadian steel and aluminum works”. And it “stands united in solidarity with the Government of Canada in its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs”. And it “rejects disparaging ad hominem statements by the US administration which do a disservice to bilateral relations and will fail to resolve this trade dispute”.

                            Twitter

                            By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                            Learn more

                            Load tweet

                            US to impose 25% tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods, joined forces with like-minded partners

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              The US Trade Representative formally said in a statement that it’s considering to raise the proposed tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. In the statement, it said “the Trump Administration continues to urge China to stop its unfair practices, open its market, and engage in true market competition.” And it emphasized that the US has been “very clear about the specific changes China should undertake” But China “regrettably” responded by ” illegally retaliated against U.S. workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses.”

                              Also, USTR Robert Lighthizer said “the increase in the possible rate of the additional duty is intended to provide the Administration with additional options to encourage China to change its harmful policies and behavior and adopt policies that will lead to fairer markets and prosperity for all of our citizens.”

                              More importantly, the USTR specifically said that the US has “joined forces with like-minded partners around the world to address unfair trade practices such as forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft, and we remain ready to engage with China in negotiations that could resolve these and other problems detailed in our Section 301 report.”

                              Full statement here.

                              Italy Salvini vows “we will not backtrack” as German-Italian spread stays above 300

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Italian Deputy Prime Minister, League leader Matteo Salvini insisted today that “we will not backtrack, we will not backtrack” referring to the 2019 budget deficit target. He blamed the volatility in the markets on speculators that are taking advantages. Salvini said “If one had evil thoughts, he would think there are people betting on the spread because they don’t want Italy to grow and create jobs”. And, “speculators acting like (George) Soros are betting on Italy’s collapse to buy at discount prices the healthy companies, and there are many of them, that have remained in this country.”

                                Salvini also warned that credit agencies have to be fair on Italy. He said “I hope no one has prejudice toward this government, or strange intentions.” Moody’s is going to review Italy’s Baa2 rating, with negative outlook, by the end of October. S&P will also review the BBB with stable outlook rating on October 26.

                                At the time of writing, Italian 10 year yield is up 0.1838 at 3.59. German 10 year bund yield is down -0.044 at 0.533. Spread is larger than the alarming 300 level.

                                China Caixin PMI services rose to 57.8, highest since Nov 2020

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  China’s Caixin PMI Services index exceeded expectations in March, rising from 55.0 to 57.8, marking the highest level since November 2020. The data revealed sharp increases in activity, sales, and employment, with the services sector showing stronger expansion compared to the manufacturing sector. Business confidence remained historically strong, while input price inflation reached a seven-month high. The PMI Composite also experienced a slight increase from 54.2 to 54.5, reaching its highest point since June 2022.

                                  Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Production, demand and employment all grew, with the services sector showing a stronger expansion, whereas manufacturing activity turned comparatively sluggish. Input costs and prices charged remained stable, and businesses were highly optimistic.”

                                  Full China Caixin PMI services release here.

                                  US Ross: If there is escalation in trade tension, it’s because EU retaliate

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross talked about trade war in an interview published by daily Le Figaro.

                                    He said “we don’t want a trade war”. But it’s “up to the European Union to decide if it wants to take retaliatory measures. The next question would be: how will the Trump react? You saw his reaction when China decided to retaliate.”

                                    “If there is an escalation it will be because the EU would have decided to retaliate.”

                                    Typical blame the others.

                                    UK Johnson forced to seek Brexit delay after losing Letwin amendment

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s effort to end Brexit drama failed, at least for now, after suffering humiliating defeat in the House of Commons today. MPs passed an amendment tabled by former Conservatives Minister Oliver Letwin by 322 to 306. Under the amendment, the so-called Benn act was trigger that forces Johnson to seek Brexit extension through January 31, 2020. And, the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal wouldn’t be held today. Johnson said immediate that he will not negotiate a further delay with the EU. But in doing so, he could in the end face being held in contempt of court.

                                      Meanwhile, Europe Commission spokesperson quickly said “The European commission takes note of the vote in the House of Commons today on the so-called Letwin amendment meaning that the withdrawal agreement itself was not put to vote today. It will be for the UK government to inform us about the next steps as soon as possible.”

                                      The Pound, and other European majors, might suffer some setback as the week opens. But Johnson is generally expected to concede and seek a delay. And EU is not expected to reject it despite all the hassles. Thus, any setback could be temporary. And the guesses on whether Johnson would get enough votes for his deal would continue.

                                      RBA minutes: USD appreciation raised risks for emerging economies, but helpful to Australia

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        In the minutes of October 2 meeting, RBA noted that global economic conditions had continued to be positive for Australia, despite risks including trade policies. Also, elevated energy and bulk commodity prices supported its terms of trade. Broad based appreciation of the US dollar “had raised risks for some economies, particularly the more fragile emerging market economies”. But the “resultant modest depreciation of the Australian dollar was likely to have been helpful for domestic economic growth.

                                        Domestically, RBA maintained that GDP growth would be “above potential over the following two years”. Forward-looking indicators of labour demand continued to point to above-average growth”. And wage growth is expected increase “gradually”. However, subdued household income growth remained an “important source of uncertainty for the outlook for consumption and inflation.”

                                        Overall, RBA also maintained that ” the next move in the cash rate was more likely to be an increase than a decrease.” However, “since progress on unemployment and inflation was likely to be gradual, they also agreed there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.”

                                        Full minutes here.

                                        Fed Powell: Nearly all FOMC members expect further tightening this year

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that it’s appropriate to continue tightening. But the Committee would like to assess additional information, before making meeting-by-meeting decisions.

                                          In the prepared remarks for the Semiannual testimony to Congress, Powell said, “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.”

                                          “But at last week’s meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” he added.

                                          In determining future actions, Fed will take into account, “account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments”.

                                          “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks,” He said.

                                          Full remarks of Fed Powell here.

                                          1...248249250...658Page 249 of 658

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.