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    Fed hikes 75bps, will consider cumulative tightening and lags to determine next step

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      ActionForex
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      Fed hikes by 75bps to 3.75-4.00% as widely expected. Tightening bias is maintained as “the Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate”.

      However, in the statement, Fed added, “in determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

      The additional language suggests that Fed might be ready to slow down the pace of tightening ahead.

      Full statement here.

      US ADP employment grew 239k, strong but not broad-based

        By
        ActionForex
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        US ADP private employment grew 239k in October, above expectation of 198k. Goods-producing jobs decreased -8k but service-providing jobs increased 247k. By company size, small establishments added 25k jobs, medium added 218k, large lost -4k.

        “This is a really strong number given the maturity of the economic recovery but the hiring was not broad-based,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Goods producers, which are sensitive to interest rates, are pulling back, and job changers are commanding smaller pay gains. While we’re seeing early signs of Fed-driven demand destruction, it’s affecting only certain sectors of the labor market.”

        Full release here.

        Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.4, moved into a deeper decline

          By
          ActionForex
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          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.4 in October, down from September’s 48.4. Manufacturing Output Index was finalized at 43.8, down from prior month’s 46.3. Both were the lowest reading in 29 months.

          Looking at member countries, Ireland PMI manufacturing dropped to 51.4 (2-month low) but stayed in expansion. Greece (48.1, 22-month low), the Netherlands (47.9, 27-month low), France (47.2, 29-month low), Austria (46.6, 28-month low), Italy (46.5, 29-month low), Germany (45.1, 28-month low), and Spain (44.7, 29-month low) were all in contraction.

          Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone goods-producing sector moved into a deeper decline at the start of the fourth quarter. The PMI surveys are now clearly signalling that the manufacturing economy is in a recession. In October, new orders fell at a rate we’ve rarely seen during 25 years of data collection – only during the worst months of the pandemic and in the height of the global financial crisis between 2008 and 2009 have decreases been stronger.”

          Full release here.

          Fed to hike 75bps, would Powell indicate slower tightening ahead?

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            ActionForex
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            Fed is widely expected to raise interest rate by 75bps again today, to 3.75-4.00%. The main question is whether Chair Jerome Powell would signal that tightening pace is going to slow afterwards.

            Currently, there are some expectations that Fed would opt for a smaller hike of 50bps in December, then a 25bps hike in February, and probably another 25bps in March, and pause from there.

            However, such hope was somewhat dashed as job data released yesterday showed that the job market could have tightened further. Job openings surged to 10.7m in September, rather than a fall to 9.8m. Ratio of openings to unemployed persons also climbed from 1.7 to 1.9. ISM manufacturing employment also improved.

            Overall, there could be some negative market reactions if Powell doesn’t deliver any firm message of a pivot.

            Here are some suggested readings on Fed:

            NZ unemployment rate unchanged at 3.3%, record hourly earning growth

              By
              ActionForex
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              New Zealand employment grew 1.3% in Q3, above expectation of 0.5%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3%, above expectation of 3.2%. Labor force participation rate rose 0.8% to 71.7%. Underutilization rate dropped -0.2 to 9.0%.

              Average ordinary time hourly earnings rose 2.4% qoq, 7.4% yoy. The annual rise was the highest since the series began in 1989. All salary and wage rates (including overtime) index rose 3.7% yoy, second highest annual rate since record began in 1993.

              Full release here.

              Australia AiG manufacturing fell to 49.6, longstanding supply-side problems continue

                By
                ActionForex
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                Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -0.6 to 49.6 in October. Looking at some details, production dropped -0.1 to 47.6. Employment rose 7.1 to 46.9. New orders dropped -4.0 to 53.8. sales dropped -3.0 to 48.4. Input prices dropped -6.8 to 78.0. Selling prices dropped -2.7 to 67.5. Average wages dropped -5.1 to 71.0.

                Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “Australian manufacturing is in a holding pattern, with three straight months of flat results. Demand conditions in the market remain stable, but longstanding supply-side problems, such as labour and supply chain shortages, continue to drag on the industry.”

                Full release here.

                Japan Suzuki concerned about gradual weakening of Yen

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                  ActionForex
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                  Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told the parliament, “I am very concerned about the gradual weakening of the yen”, which could accelerate inflation by increasing import costs.

                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also said, recent Yen weakness raises uncertainty on the outlook, and is negative for the economy.

                  Regarding monetary policy, Kuroda said, “If the achievement of our 2% inflation target comes into sight, making yield curve control more flexible could become an option.” But for now, he added that the central bank must maintain ultra-low loose monetary policy to support the economy.

                  BoC Macklem: We are getting closer, but we are not there yet

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                    ActionForex
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                    BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech that the central bank is trying to “balance the risks of under- and over-tightening.” “The tightening phase will draw to a close,” he added. “We are getting closer, but we are not there yet.”

                    BoC is still “far from that goal” of ensuring “low, stable and predictable” inflation. “With inflation so far above our target, we are particularly concerned about the upside risks,” he added.

                    Macklem also said, “We expect growth will stall in the next few quarters—in other words, growth will be close to zero. But once we get through this slowdown, growth will pick up, our economy will grow solidly, and the benefits of low and predictable inflation will be restored.”

                    Full speech here.

                    US ISM manufacturing dropped to 50.2, prices decreasing for the first time since May 2020

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly from 50.9 to 50.2 in October, a touch above expectation of 50.0. Looking at some details, new orders rose 2.1 to 49.2. Production rose 1.7 to 52.3. Employment rose 1.3 to 50.0. Supplier deliveries dropped -5.6 to 46.8. Inventories dropped -3.0 to 52.5. Prices dropped -5.1 to 46.6.

                      ISM noted that price index indicated decreasing prices for the first time since May 2020. Mentions of large-scale layoffs were absent from panelists’ comments, indicating companies are confident of near-term demand. Overall, the PMI corresponds to a 0.5% annualized growth in real GDP.

                      Full release here.

                      UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.2, suffered a further decline

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.2 in October, down from September’s 48.4. That’s the lowest level in 29 months, and the reading has been below 50 mark for three consecutive months.

                        S&P Global noted that output, new orders and new export business all declined. Job cuts were registered for the first time in almost two years. Input cost and selling price inflation eased slightly.

                        Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK manufacturing production suffered a further decline at the start of the fourth quarter, with the sector buffeted by weak demand, high inflation, supply-chain constraints and heightened political and economic uncertainties…. The darkening situation also knocked business optimism down to a two-and-a-half year low… On current form manufacturing is in no position to help prevent the broader UK economy from sliding into recession.”

                        Full release here.

                        RBA Lowe: We need to strike the right balance between doing too much and too little

                          By
                          ActionForex
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                          RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a speech that the earlier large 50bps rate hikes wereto “move interest rates quickly away from their pandemic levels to address the rapidly emerging inflation problem.”

                          As interest rates moved back to “more normal levels”, the board judged that it’s “appropriate to move at a slower pace”, with 25bps hike today, and at last meeting.

                          “We are conscious that interest rates have been increased by a large amount in a very short period of time and that higher interest rates affect the economy with a lag,” he added. “If we are to stay on that narrow path, we need to strike the right balance between doing too much and too little.”

                          Lowe also noted that RBA is “not on a pre-set path”. “If we need to step up to larger increases again to secure the return of inflation to target, we will do that,” he added. “Similarly, if the situation requires us to hold steady for a while, we will do that.

                          Full speech here.

                          Swiss SECO consumer confidence fell to fresh record low at -47

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Swiss SECO Consumer Confidence fell further from -42 to -47 in Q4, below expectation of -43. That’s the record low level since the survey began in 1972.

                            Looking at some details, expected economic development dropped from -53.5 to -57.2, far below long-term average of -9. Past financial situation dropped from -35.1 to -39.7, a historic low. Expected financial situation dropped sharply from -34.8 to -46.9, also a new low. Major purchases improved slightly from -43.3 to -42.4.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB Lagarde: We are not done with tightening yet

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview, “Inflation is still far too high in the euro area as a whole… Higher energy and food prices are still the main drivers of price increases. We are increasingly seeing that these higher energy costs are feeding through to more and more sectors in the economy.”

                              “We expect to raise interest rates further to make sure that inflation returns to our medium-term target of 2% in a timely manner,” she added.

                              “Since July we have raised interest rates by 200 basis points – the fastest increase in the history of the euro,” she said. “But we are not done yet. We will decide on future policy steps meeting by meeting, each time assessing how the outlook for the economy and inflation has evolved, also considering how the measures we have taken so far are working.”

                              She admitted that the “likelihood of a recession has increased and uncertainty remains high.” But ultimately, “persistently high inflation rates are more damaging to society because they make everybody poorer.”

                              Full interview here.

                              China Caixin PMI manufacturing recovered to 49.2, impact of Covid controls lingered

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose from 48.1 to 49.2 in October, above expectation of 49.0. Caixin noted that output and new orders fell again as COVID-19 containment measures continued. Selling prices fell for the sixth consecutive month. Business confidence edged up slightly.

                                Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Overall, the negative impact of Covid controls on the economy lingered. In October, supply, domestic and overseas demand, and employment in the manufacturing sector all contracted, but the rates of contraction slowed from the previous month. Costs rose slightly, and cuts to output prices were still common. Logistics and transportation were still sluggish, and companies’ purchases and inventories rose slightly. Market sentiment improved, but optimism remained limited from a long-term perspective.

                                Full release here.

                                Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 50.7, but business remained optimistic

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 50.7 in October, slightly down from September’s 50.8. That’s the lowest level in 21 months. S&P Global noted that inflationary pressure remained severer. Business remained optimistic with sentiment at nine-month high.

                                  Laura Denman, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                                  “The latest survey data signalled that Japan’s manufacturing sector lost further momentum in October. Sluggish markets and weaker demand conditions, on both a domestic and international level, became a recurring trend throughout the report and were seemingly the driving forces behind the slower sector performance. Anecdotal evidence suggested that worsening conditions in China and South Korea were specifically detrimental to Japan’s exports this month.

                                  “Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained severe in October. Japanese manufacturing firms increased their selling prices more aggressively, as signalled by a near-record rate of output cost inflation. Given the current conditions in some of Japan’s key export markets, and with inflationary pressures displaying limited signs of easing, demand is likely to remain subdued in the coming months.

                                  “Despite this, firms seem unfazed by the challenges that the sector is currently facing remaining optimistic towards their 12-month outlook on growth in October. In fact, the degree of confidence accelerated from September and reached a nine-month high.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  RBA hikes 25bps, rates to rise further over the period ahead

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    RBA raises cash rate target by 25bps to 2.85% as widely expected. It maintains tightening bias and expects to “increase interest rates further over the period ahead”. The size and timing of future rate hikes will be determined by incoming data and the outlook for inflation and labor market.

                                    The central bank expects inflation to “further increase” over the months ahead and peak at around 8% this year. CPI inflation is forecast to be around 4.75% over 2023 and a little above 3% over 2024. GDP growth forecast was “revised down a little” to 3% this year, 1.50% in 2023 and 2024. Unemployment rate is forecast to rise gradually from current 3.5% to a little above 4% in 2024 as economic growth slow.

                                    Full statement here.

                                    ECB Visco: High uncertainty calls for gradual tightening

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said that interest rate will have to rise further to reduce the risk of persistent high inflation

                                      However, he’s uncertain on the pace of tightening, in face of economic risks. Also, the terminate rate of “can’t be predetermined” due to the uncertain nature of economic forecasting amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.

                                      “The high level of uncertainty calls for a gradual approach, carefully assessing the appropriateness of the monetary stance on the basis of evidence as it becomes available,” he said.

                                      Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% qoq in Q3

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3, slightly above expectation of 0.1% qoq, but much slower than Q2’s 0.8% qoq. EU GDP grew 0.2% qoq too, slowed from Q2’s 0.7% qoq.

                                        Among the Member States for which data are available for the third quarter of 2022, Sweden (+0.7%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Italy (+0.5%), Portugal and Lithuania (both +0.4%). Declines were recorded in Latvia (-1.7%) as well as in Austria and Belgium (both -0.1%). The year-on-year growth rates were positive for all countries except for Latvia (-0.4%).

                                        Full report here.

                                        Eurozone CPI rose to 10.7% yoy in Oct, core CPI up to 5.0% yoy

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Eurozone CPI accelerated from 9.9% yoy to 10.7% yoy in October, above expectation of 9.9% yoy. CPI core (all-items ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco also rose from 4.8% yoy to 5.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.8% yoy.

                                          Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (41.9%, compared with 40.7% in September), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (13.1%, compared with 11.8% in September), non-energy industrial goods (6.0%, compared with 5.5% in September) and services (4.4%, compared with 4.3% in September).

                                          Full release here.

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