San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a CBS New interview, “if you’re out in the economy, you don’t feel like you’re in a recession. That’s the bottom line. The most important risk out there is inflation. And I think the job market just confirms that.”
She added that a 50bps hike in September is still “absolutely” appropriate. “And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy,” She said.
















RBNZ 2-yr inflation expectation dropped to 3.07% in Q3
According to the latest RBNZ Survey of Expectations, the one-year-out inflation was relatively unchanged at 4.86% in Q3, down from Q2’s 4.88%. Expectations were still much higher than Q1’s 4.4% and Q4’s 3.7%.
However, two-year-out inflation expectation has fallen significantly to 3.07% in Q3, down from Q2’s 3.29%. That’s already below Q1’s 3.27% but still above Q4’s 2.96%.
Still, the most watched 2 year expectation sit above RBNZ’s target range. There is no change in market expectation that RBNZ would deliver another 50bps rate hike on August 17.
Full release here.