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Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.2% mom in Jun, EU down -1.3% mom

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    ActionForex
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    Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.2% mom in June versus expectation of 0.1% mom rise. The volume of retail trade decreased by -2.6% mom for non-food products, by -1.1% for automotive fuels mom and by -0.4% mom for food, drinks and tobacco.

    EU retail sales dropped -1.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Denmark (-3.8%), the Netherlands (-3.4%) and Estonia (-2.4%). Increases were observed in Ireland and Malta (both +0.5%), Finland (+0.3%) and Austria (+0.2%).

    Full release here.

    Eurozone PPI up 1.1% mom, 35.8% yoy in Jun

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      ActionForex
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      Eurozone PPI rose 1.1% mom, 35.8% yoy in June, versus expectation of 1.0% mom, 35.7% yoy. For the month, Industrial producer prices increased by 2.7% mom in the energy sector, by 0.7% mom for durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% mom for intermediate goods and for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.4% mom.

      EU PPI rose 1.3% mom, 36.1% yoy. The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Ireland (+13.2%), Lithuania (+5.2%) as well as Latvia and Finland (both +4.0%). Decreases were observed in Greece (-3.2%) and Luxembourg (-2.2%).

      Full release here.

      UK PMI services finalized at 52.6, composite at 52.1

        By
        ActionForex
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        UK PMI Services was finalized at 52.6 in July, down from June’s 54.3, worst reading in 17 months. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.1, down from 53.7 in June, the lowest rate of expectation since February 2021.

        Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK service providers reported their worst month for business activity expansion since the national lockdown in February 2021. Reduced levels of discretionary consumer spending and efforts by businesses to contain expenses due to escalating inflation have combined to squeeze demand across the service economy. The near-term outlook also looks subdued, as new order growth held close to June’s 16-month low and business optimism was the second weakest since May 2020..

        Full release here.

        Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 49.9, outlook darkened, signalling July GDP contraction

          By
          ActionForex
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          Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 51.2 in July, down from 53.0 in June. That’s the lowest level in 6 months. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.9, down from 52.0 in June, a 17-month low.

          Looking at some member states, Spain PMI Composite was finalized at 52.7 (6-month low), France at 51.7 (15-month low), Germany at 48.1 (25-month low), and Italy at 47.7 (18-month low).

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economic outlook has darkened at the start of the third quarter, with the latest survey data signalling a contraction of GDP in July. Soaring inflation, rising interest rates and supply worries – notably for energy – have led to the biggest drops in output and demand seen for a almost a decade, barring pandemic lockdown months.

          Full release here.

          Swiss CPI unchanged at 3.4% yoy in Jul, core CPI ticked up to 1.8% yoy

            By
            ActionForex
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            Swiss CPI was unchanged at 3.4% yoy in July, below expectation of 3.6% yoy. Core CPI rose from 1.9% yoy to 2.0% yoy. Domestic products inflation rose from 1.7% yoy to 1.8% yoy. Imported products inflation dropped from 8.5% yoy to 8.4% yoy.

            FSO said: “The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Prices for heating oil decreased, as did those for clothing and footwear due to seasonal sales. In contrast, prices for gas and supplementary accommodation increased.”

            Full release here.

            China Caixin PMI services rose to 55.5, composite dropped to 54.0

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              ActionForex
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              China Caixin PMI Services rose from 54.5 to 55.5 in July, above expectation of 54.0. That’s the highest level since April 2021. PMI Composite dropped from 55.3 to 54.0.

              Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “In general, the eased Covid situation and restrictions facilitated a continuous recovery in the economy. The services sector, which had been previously hit harder by the outbreaks than manufacturing, showed stronger improvement. Supply and demand continued to improve with supply stronger than demand. The labor market shrank greatly, adding to employment pressures. Business costs steadily climbed while prices charged remained stable, posing challenges for company profits. The market held on to positive sentiment, even with concerns about the outlook for Covid and the economy.”

              Full release here.

              New Zealand employment flat in Q2, wage grow strongest since 2008

                By
                ActionForex
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                New Zealand employment was essentially flat in Q2, below expectation of 0.4% rise. Unemployment rate ticked up from 3.2% to 3.3%, against expectation a fall to 3.1%. Labor force participation rate dropped -0.1% to 70.8%.

                Wage inflation (salary and wage rates, including overtime) in all sectors rose 1.1% qoq, 3.5% yoy. It grew 1.3% qoq, 3.4% yoy in private sector, and 0.6% qoq, 3.0% yoy in public sector.

                “Measures of spare labour market capacity have fallen over the year and remained low for several quarters, continuing to show a tight labour market,” work and wellbeing statistics senior manager Becky Collett said.

                “The June quarter had the largest increase in LCI salary and wages rates since late-2008. Over the year, a steadily increasing number of wages have been raised to better match market rates, as well as attracting or retaining staff,” business employment insights manager Sue Chapman said.

                Full release here.

                Australia AiG construction dropped to 45.3, RBA tightening will end the boom

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index dropped -0.9 to 45.3 in July. Activity dropped -3.5 to 42.7. Employment rose 2.2 to 53.0. New orders dropped -2.7 to 43.1. Supplier deliveries rose 3.2 to 42.2. Input prices dropped -2.2 to 93.8. Selling prices rose 4.4 to 87.1.

                  HIA Economist, Thomas Devitt, said: “Confidence in the housing sector has been adversely impacted by rising rates which will compound the rise in the cost of construction. This has not yet materialised in slowing sales or approvals of new homes and there is still a large volume of building work in the pipeline to complete. Recent declines in confidence, as shown in this month’s Australian PCI®, reflect an anticipation on the part of builders of less new work entering the pipeline in coming months as the RBA’s current tightening cycle will, inevitably, bring an end to the boom.

                  Full release here.

                  Fed Bullard: Rates need to go a bit higher than I said before

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that inflation has “come in hotter” than he expected during Q2. Thus, “I think we’re going to have to go a little bit higher than what I said before.” He added that the federal funds rate will have to go to 3.75-4.00% by the end of the year, comparing to the current 2.25-2.50%.

                    “Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s, it appears that both the Fed and the ECB may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing,” Bullard also noted.

                    Fed Mester: We’re not in a recession, have more work to do on inflation

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a Washington Post interview yesterday, “I don’t believe we’re in a recession… We don’t have a slowdown in labor markets, and that’s two key factors that go into calling a recession.”

                      “Our policy has been to raise interest rates in order to cool down the demand side of the economy…. but certainly it hasn’t slowed enough, (a), to call it a recession; and (b), to even see that moderation in demand showing through yet to a moderation and a cooling-off of price increases and inflation,” she added.

                      “We have more work to do because we have not seen that turn in inflation. It’s got to be a sustained several months of evidence that inflation has first peaked – we haven’t even seen that yet – and that it’s moving down,” she also noted.

                      Full interview here.

                      Fed Daly: Need to keep committed until actually seeing inflation down in data

                        By
                        ActionForex
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                        San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Fed is “nowhere near almost done”, with inflation. “We have made a good start and I feel really pleased with where we’ve gotten to at this point.”

                        “It really would be premature to unwind all of that and say the job is done,” she said. “I also think that we’ve been with this high inflation for a while, and really getting too confident that we’ve already solved the problem,” Daly said, adding that the Fed needs to “keep committed until we actually see it in the data.”

                        Fed Evans: 50bps hike next is reasonable, 75bps also ok

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evan said that is things “weren’t improving”, the 50bps rate hike in September is a “reasonable assessment”, but 75 bps “could also be ok”. He added “I doubt that more would be called for.”

                          “We wanted to get to neutral expeditiously. We want to get a little restrictive expeditiously,” Evans added. “We want to see if the real side effects are going to start coming back in line … or if we have a lot more ahead of us.”

                          Canada PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.5, another slowdown in operating conditions

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Canada PMI Manufacturing dropped from 54.6 to 52.5 in July, hitting the lowest level in more than two years.

                            Shreeya Patel, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                            “Latest PMI data revealed another slowdown in operating conditions in Canada’s manufacturing sector with the PMI at its lowest point for just over two years. Behind the latest moderation were contractions in both output and new orders which fell for the first time since the pandemic began in the first half of 2020.

                            “Firms continue to face sharply rising costs, which have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Policymakers have reaffirmed their stance on tackling inflation by raising interest rates by a full percentage point last month.

                            “Companies in Canada will hope price pressures continue to ease and demand from both international and domestic markets improves. In the meantime, firms remain cautiously optimistic about their 12-month outlook for output.”

                            Full release here.

                            Swiss SECO consumer sentiment dropped to -42, worse than pandemic low

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Swiss SECO Consumer Sentiment dropped sharply from -27 to -42 in Q3, worse than expectation of -34. It’s even below the -39 reading after the onset of the pandemic in April 2020. Expected economic development dropped further from -31.4 to -53.5, far below its long-term average at -9. Expected financial situation dropped from -24.9 to -34.8, undershooting previous low of -26 in January 1995.

                              Full release here.

                              AUD/JPY falls after RBA, heading to 90 projection level

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                AUD/JPY’s decline continues today after RBA delivered the 50bps rate hike as expected, and turned a bit cautious about the policy normalization path ahead. Of course, Yen’s persistent, broad-based rally elsewhere is a factor pressing the cross.

                                With 91.41 support taken out, immediate focus is now on 100% projection of 96.86 to 91.41 from 95.68 at 90.23. Firm break there will be a sign of downside acceleration. That would also raise that chance that it’s already in correction to the medium term up trend. In this bearish case, current decline should target next support zone between 95.78 and 87.28 next.

                                Nevertheless, above 92.27 minor resistance will indicate stabilization first, before taking the next move.

                                RBA hikes 50bps, normalization to continue but not on pre-set path

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  RBA raises the cash rate target by 50bps to 1.85% as widely expected. It also maintains hawkish bias, and noted, “the Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead”.

                                  Nevertheless, the normalization is “not on a pre-set path”. “The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market,” it added.

                                  RBA forecasts inflation to hit around 7.75% over 2022, then slow to a little above 4% over 2023, and then around 3% in 2024. GDP growth is projected to be at 3.25% over 2022 and 1.75% over the next two years. Unemployment rate is forecast to climb from current 3.5% to around 4% at the end of 2024.

                                  “Behaviour of household spending” continues to be a “key source of uncertainty”. The central bank will “paying close attention to how these various factors balance out as it assesses the appropriate setting of monetary policy.”

                                  Full statement here.

                                  US ISM manufacturing ticked down to 52.8, prices fell to acceptable level at 60.0

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.0 to 52.8 in July, above expectation of 52.0. Looking at some details, new orders dropped -1.2 to 48.0. Production dropped -1.4 to 53.5. Employment rose 2.6 to 49.9. Prices dropped sharply by -18.5 to 60.0.

                                    ISM said: “”The U.S. manufacturing sector continues expanding — though slightly less so in July — as new order rates continue to contract, supplier deliveries improve and prices soften to acceptable levels.”

                                    “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for July (52.8 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 6.6% in Jun, EU at 7.2%

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in June, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate was also stable at 7.2%.

                                      Eurostat estimates that 12.931 million men and women in the EU, of whom 10.925 million in the euro area, were unemployed in June 2022. Compared with June 2021, unemployment decreased by 2.311 million in the EU and by 1.957 million in the euro area.

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.1, shifted into reverse gear

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in July, down from 52.8 in June. That’s also the lowest level in 25 months. S&P Global said that output fell in consumer and intermediate goods industries. Job created accelerated as companies addressed staff shortages.

                                        Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                                        “The UK manufacturing sector shifted into reverse gear at the start of the third quarter. Output contracted for the first time since May 2020, as new order intakes suffered the first back-to-back monthly decreases for two years.

                                        “Rising market uncertainty, the cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine, ongoing supply issues and inflationary pressures are all hitting demand for goods at the same time, while lingering post-Brexit issues and the darkening global economic backdrop are hampering exports.

                                        “With the Bank of England implementing further interest rate hikes to combat inflation, the outlook is beset with downside risks. With this in mind, the continued low degree of optimism among manufacturers is of little surprise.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.8, sinking into increasingly steep downturn

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.8 in July, down from 52.1. That’s also a 25-month low. PMI Manufacturing Output Index was finalized at 46.3, down from June’s 49.3, a 26-month low.

                                          Looking at some member states, PMI manufacturing in the Netherlands dropped to 20-month low at 54.5. Austria recovered to 2-month high at 51.7. France (49.6, 26-month low), Germany (49.3, 25-month low), Greece (49.1, 19-month low), Spain (48.7, 26-month low), and Italy (48.5, 25-month low) were all in contraction.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Eurozone manufacturing is sinking into an increasingly steep downturn, adding to the region’s recession risks….

                                          “Production is falling at especially worrying rates in Germany, Italy and France, but is also now in decline in all other surveyed countries except the Netherlands, and even here the rate of growth has slowed sharply…

                                          “The energy crisis adds to the risks that not only will weaker demand and destocking cause manufacturing production to decline at an increased rate in the coming months, but reduced energy supply will act as an additional drag on the sector.”

                                          Full release here.

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