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Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 6.6% in Jun, EU at 7.2%

    By
    ActionForex
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    Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in June, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate was also stable at 7.2%.

    Eurostat estimates that 12.931 million men and women in the EU, of whom 10.925 million in the euro area, were unemployed in June 2022. Compared with June 2021, unemployment decreased by 2.311 million in the EU and by 1.957 million in the euro area.

    Full release here.

    UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.1, shifted into reverse gear

      By
      ActionForex
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      UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in July, down from 52.8 in June. That’s also the lowest level in 25 months. S&P Global said that output fell in consumer and intermediate goods industries. Job created accelerated as companies addressed staff shortages.

      Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

      “The UK manufacturing sector shifted into reverse gear at the start of the third quarter. Output contracted for the first time since May 2020, as new order intakes suffered the first back-to-back monthly decreases for two years.

      “Rising market uncertainty, the cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine, ongoing supply issues and inflationary pressures are all hitting demand for goods at the same time, while lingering post-Brexit issues and the darkening global economic backdrop are hampering exports.

      “With the Bank of England implementing further interest rate hikes to combat inflation, the outlook is beset with downside risks. With this in mind, the continued low degree of optimism among manufacturers is of little surprise.”

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.8, sinking into increasingly steep downturn

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.8 in July, down from 52.1. That’s also a 25-month low. PMI Manufacturing Output Index was finalized at 46.3, down from June’s 49.3, a 26-month low.

        Looking at some member states, PMI manufacturing in the Netherlands dropped to 20-month low at 54.5. Austria recovered to 2-month high at 51.7. France (49.6, 26-month low), Germany (49.3, 25-month low), Greece (49.1, 19-month low), Spain (48.7, 26-month low), and Italy (48.5, 25-month low) were all in contraction.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Eurozone manufacturing is sinking into an increasingly steep downturn, adding to the region’s recession risks….

        “Production is falling at especially worrying rates in Germany, Italy and France, but is also now in decline in all other surveyed countries except the Netherlands, and even here the rate of growth has slowed sharply…

        “The energy crisis adds to the risks that not only will weaker demand and destocking cause manufacturing production to decline at an increased rate in the coming months, but reduced energy supply will act as an additional drag on the sector.”

        Full release here.

        China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.4, continued recovery

          By
          ActionForex
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          China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped from 51.7 to 50.4 in July, below expectation of 51.5. Caixin said there were softer increases in output and new orders. Employment fell at quicker pace. Input cost inflation slowed notably while prices charged fell again.

          Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “In general, the eased Covid situation and restrictions facilitated a continuous recovery in the manufacturing sector in July. Supply and demand continued to improve, with supply stronger than demand. Employment lagged, remaining in contractionary territory. Costs gradually rose, with output prices on the decline, posing challenges for company profits. The market held on to positive sentiment, along with concerns about the economic outlook.”

          Full release here.

          Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.1, headline masked worrying trends

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in July, down from June’s 52.7. That’s the lowest level since September 2021. S&P Global said there were renewed reductions in output and new orders. The softest rise in outstanding business 17 months was due to weaker demand. Rising prices and delivery delays led to accelerated stock building.

            Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The Japanese manufacturing sector saw a modest improvement in operating conditions at the start of the second half of the year, however the headline PMI masked some worrying trends when looking at the underlying sub-indices, which add downside risks for the sector. New order inflows fell for the first time in ten months and at the fastest pace since November 2020, which contributed to a renewed contraction in production levels – the first since February.

            “Weaker demand conditions also contributed to reduced pressure on operating capacity. Backlogs of work increased at the softest rate in 17 months, which hints at a further weakening of output over the coming months.

            “Anecdotal evidence also pointed to an acceleration in stock building activity among Japanese goods producers. Firms often cited that rising prices and delivery delays had led to greater purchasing activity and holdings of raw materials and other inputs, while delays meant that manufacturers held on to finished items until logistical capacity improved.

            “Beyond the immediate future, firms remained confident about the year-ahead outlook for output, though the degree of optimism was little-changed from June. That said, increased downside risks from price and supply pressures remain apparent. S&P Global estimates that industrial production will rise only 0.2% in 2022, meaning that output lost to the pandemic is unlikely to be recovered until the start of 2024.”

            Full release here.

            Australia AiG manufacturing dropped to 52.5, manufacturers simply can’t meet demand

              By
              ActionForex
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              Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -1.5 to 52.5 in July. Looking at some details, production dropped sharply by -7.2 to 47.5. Employment dropped -0.9 to 50.1. New orders rose 4.2 to 59.9. Supplier deliveries dropped -4.1 to 47.4. Exports dropped -1.8 to 51.2. Input prices dropped -9.6 to 79.7. Selling prices dropped -3.3 to 64.5.

              Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “The supply and labour constraints afflicting the Australian economy are weighing heavily on the manufacturing sector. Production and employment both fell in July, as manufacturers struggle with chronic labour shortages and supply chain interruptions. New orders rose this month, but our manufacturers simply can’t meet this demand without more workers.”

              Full release here.

              Fed Kashkari: Technically in a recession or not, Fed is committed to fight inflation

                By
                ActionForex
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                Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in a CBS interview on Sunday, “we are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation, and that’s where we need to get to.”

                “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis,” he added. “I’m focused on the inflation data. I’m focused on the wage data. And so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. Wages continue to grow.”

                “Typically, recessions demonstrate high job losses, high unemployment, those are terrible for American families. And we’re not seeing anything like that,” he said.

                “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change the fact that the Federal Reserve has its own work to do, and we are committed to doing it,” Kashkari said.

                 

                Canada GDP unchanged in May, grew 0.1% mom in Jun

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Canada GDP was essentially unchanged in May, better than expectation of -0.2% mom contraction. Services-producing industries rose grew 0.4% mom while goods-producing industries contracted -1.0%. 14 of 20 industrial sectors increased.

                  Advance information indicates that GDP grew 0.1% mom in June, as output was up in the construction, manufacturing, and accommodation and food services sectors. Also, GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q2.

                  Full release here.

                  US PCE inflation rose to 6.8% yoy, core CPI rose to 4.8% yoy

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    US personal spending rose 0.6% mom or USD 133.5B in June, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Personal spending rose 1.1% mom or USD 181.1B, above expectation of 0.9% mom. The rise in spending reflected USD 94.9B increase in goods and USD 86.2B in services.

                    Headline PCE price index accelerated from 6.3% yoy to 6.8% yoy, above expectation of 6.7% yoy. That’s also the highest level since January 1982. Core PCE price index also rose from 4.7% yoy to 4.8% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy.

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone CPI rose to record 8.9% yoy, core CPI rose to 4% yoy

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Eurozone CPI rose from 8.6% yoy to 8.9% yoy in July, above expectation of 8.7% yoy. That’s also another record high. CPI core (all-items ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) rose from 3.7% yoy to 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.8% yoy.

                      Looking at the main components inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (39.7%, compared with 42.0% in June), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (9.8%, compared with 8.9% in June), non-energy industrial goods (4.5%, compared with 4.3% in June) and services (3.7%, compared with 3.4% in June).

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q2, EU up 0.6% qoq

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Eurozone GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q2, well above expectation of 0.1% qoq. Comparing with same quarter of last year, GDP grew 4.0% yoy.

                        EU GDP grew 0.6% qoq, 4.0% yoy. Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter 2022, Sweden (+1.4%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Spain (+1.1%) and Italy (+1.0%). Declines were recorded in Latvia (-1.4%), in Lithuania (-0.4%) and in Portugal (-0.2%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

                        Full release here.

                        Swiss KOF dropped to 90.1, economy to develop sluggishly in Autumn

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped sharply from 95.2 to 90.1 in July, well below expectation of 95.2. That’s also the third decline in a row, with the value below its long-term average by almost 10 pts. KOF said the Swiss economy is likely to “develop sluggishly in autumn”.

                          KOF said: “The retreat in July is led by the bundle of indicators for manufacturing. But the outlook is also much less favourable than before in accommodation and food service activities, other services, and financial and insurance services. The negative tendency is also evident in the bundle of indicators for private consumption in general. The decline is dampened somewhat by the indicators for construction and foreign demand.”

                          Full release here.

                          Gold tentatively bullish but 1800 region as key hurdle

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Gold’s rebound from 1680.83 short term bottom picks up further momentum on broad based Dollar selling. Further rise is now expected as long as 1733.85 minor support holds, for channel resistance at 1778.91. But there are a couple of hurdles to overcome ahead, including, 1786.65 support turned resistance, 55 day EMA (now at 1791.10), 1800 psychological level, and 55 week EMA (now at 1831.13).

                            In the bigger picture, the view is unchanged that price actions from 2074.84 (2020 high) are in form of a three wave consolidation pattern, with fall from 2070.06 as the third leg. Strong support is expected at 1682.60, with 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1681.92, to complete the pattern. This is what has been happening so far. Sustained break of the above mentioned resistance zone between 1786.65 and 1831.13 will solidify this view and bring stronger rally back to retest 2074.84 high.

                            France GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2 on dynamism of exports

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              France GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, better than expectation of 0.2% qoq.

                              Foreign trade contributed to +0.4 points to GDP growth this quarter, after +0.1 points in the previous quarter. This large contribution is due to the dynamism of exports (+0.8% after +1.6% in Q1 2022), coupled with the decline of imports (-0.6% after +1.2%).

                              The contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) to GDP growth was null this quarter. Household consumption expenditure fell again, but more moderately than in the previous quarter (-0.2% after -1.3%). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) continued to grow at a rather vigorous pace (+0.5%, as in the previous quarter).

                              Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was weakly positive this quarter (+0.1 points after +0.2 points in Q1).

                              Full release here.

                              Japan industrial production rose record 8.9% mom in Jun, recovery to continue

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Japan industrial production rose strongly by 8.9% mom in June, well above expectation of 3.7% mom. That’s also the biggest monthly rise since data become available in 2013. Car production jumped 14.0% mom thanks to easing of lockdowns in Shanghai of China. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to extend its recovery by 3.8% in July and 6.0% in August.

                                Also released, retail sales rose 1.5% yoy in June, below expectation of 2.8% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6% in June. Housing starts dropped -2.2% yoy in June, versus expectation of -1.2% yoy. Consumer confidence dropped from 32.1 to 30.2 in July, below expectation of 33.0.

                                BoJ opinions: Appropriate to encourage wage increases through monetary easing

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s July 20 and 21 meeting, it’s noted that, “Bank should support financing, mainly of firms, and maintain stability in financial markets, and should not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.” Additionally, it is “appropriate for the Bank to maintain the current forward guidance for the policy rates.”

                                  “While Japan’s economy is on its way to recovery from the pandemic, it has been under downward pressure due to an outflow of income from Japan caused by high commodity prices,” one member noted. “In this situation, it is appropriate that the Bank encourage wage increases through monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner”.

                                  Full summary of opinions here.

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 256k

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped -5k to 256k in the week ending July 23, versus expectation of 248k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 6.25k to 249.25k.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -25k to 1359k in the week ending July 16. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8.75k to 1362m.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US GDP contract -0.9% in Q2, second quarter of contraction

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US GDP contracted an annualized -0.9% in Q2, much worse than expectation of 0.4% rise. That’s the second quarter of contraction, after Q1’s -1.6% annualized.

                                      BEA said: “The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 99.0 in Jul

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 103.5 to 99.0 in July. Industrial confidence dropped from 7.0 to 3.5. Services confidence dropped from 104.1 to 10.7. Consumer confidence dropped from -23.8 to -27.0. Retail trade confidence dropped from -5.2 to -6.8. Construction confidence dropped from 103.5 to 99.0. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 110.2 to 107.0.

                                        EU Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 101.8 to 97.6. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 110.2 to 106.6. In the EU, the drop in the ESI in July was due to significant losses in industry, services, retail trade and consumer confidence, whereas confidence in construction decreased more mildly. The ESI fell markedly in four out of the six largest EU economies, Spain (-5.0), Germany (-4.9), Italy (-3.4) and Poland (-3.2), while it remained broadly stable in France (-0.1) and the Netherlands (+0.2).

                                        Full release here.

                                        NZ ANZ business confidence improved to -56.7, business feeling apprehensive

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          New Zealand ANZ business confidence improved from -62.6 to -56.7 in July. Own activity outlook rose from -9.1 to -8.7. Employment intentions rose from 0.7 to 1.1. Pricing intentions rose from 73.7 to 74.0. Inflation expectations rose from 6.02 to 6.23.

                                          ANZ said that most activity indicators were little changed, but residential construction intentions plummeted again to a fresh record low (-73.7). Inflation pressures remain intense, but may be topping out.

                                          It added: “New Zealand businesses are well aware that the Reserve Bank is on a mission to reduce customer demand for their wares in order to reduce inflation. No wonder they’re feeling apprehensive.”

                                          Full release here.

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