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France GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2 on dynamism of exports

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    ActionForex
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    France GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, better than expectation of 0.2% qoq.

    Foreign trade contributed to +0.4 points to GDP growth this quarter, after +0.1 points in the previous quarter. This large contribution is due to the dynamism of exports (+0.8% after +1.6% in Q1 2022), coupled with the decline of imports (-0.6% after +1.2%).

    The contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) to GDP growth was null this quarter. Household consumption expenditure fell again, but more moderately than in the previous quarter (-0.2% after -1.3%). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) continued to grow at a rather vigorous pace (+0.5%, as in the previous quarter).

    Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was weakly positive this quarter (+0.1 points after +0.2 points in Q1).

    Full release here.

    Japan industrial production rose record 8.9% mom in Jun, recovery to continue

      By
      ActionForex
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      Japan industrial production rose strongly by 8.9% mom in June, well above expectation of 3.7% mom. That’s also the biggest monthly rise since data become available in 2013. Car production jumped 14.0% mom thanks to easing of lockdowns in Shanghai of China. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to extend its recovery by 3.8% in July and 6.0% in August.

      Also released, retail sales rose 1.5% yoy in June, below expectation of 2.8% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6% in June. Housing starts dropped -2.2% yoy in June, versus expectation of -1.2% yoy. Consumer confidence dropped from 32.1 to 30.2 in July, below expectation of 33.0.

      BoJ opinions: Appropriate to encourage wage increases through monetary easing

        By
        ActionForex
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        In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s July 20 and 21 meeting, it’s noted that, “Bank should support financing, mainly of firms, and maintain stability in financial markets, and should not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.” Additionally, it is “appropriate for the Bank to maintain the current forward guidance for the policy rates.”

        “While Japan’s economy is on its way to recovery from the pandemic, it has been under downward pressure due to an outflow of income from Japan caused by high commodity prices,” one member noted. “In this situation, it is appropriate that the Bank encourage wage increases through monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner”.

        Full summary of opinions here.

        US initial jobless claims dropped to 256k

          By
          ActionForex
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          US initial jobless claims dropped -5k to 256k in the week ending July 23, versus expectation of 248k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 6.25k to 249.25k.

          Continuing claims dropped -25k to 1359k in the week ending July 16. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8.75k to 1362m.

          Full release here.

          US GDP contract -0.9% in Q2, second quarter of contraction

            By
            ActionForex
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            US GDP contracted an annualized -0.9% in Q2, much worse than expectation of 0.4% rise. That’s the second quarter of contraction, after Q1’s -1.6% annualized.

            BEA said: “The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased”

            Full release here.

            Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 99.0 in Jul

              By
              ActionForex
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              Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 103.5 to 99.0 in July. Industrial confidence dropped from 7.0 to 3.5. Services confidence dropped from 104.1 to 10.7. Consumer confidence dropped from -23.8 to -27.0. Retail trade confidence dropped from -5.2 to -6.8. Construction confidence dropped from 103.5 to 99.0. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 110.2 to 107.0.

              EU Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 101.8 to 97.6. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 110.2 to 106.6. In the EU, the drop in the ESI in July was due to significant losses in industry, services, retail trade and consumer confidence, whereas confidence in construction decreased more mildly. The ESI fell markedly in four out of the six largest EU economies, Spain (-5.0), Germany (-4.9), Italy (-3.4) and Poland (-3.2), while it remained broadly stable in France (-0.1) and the Netherlands (+0.2).

              Full release here.

              NZ ANZ business confidence improved to -56.7, business feeling apprehensive

                By
                ActionForex
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                New Zealand ANZ business confidence improved from -62.6 to -56.7 in July. Own activity outlook rose from -9.1 to -8.7. Employment intentions rose from 0.7 to 1.1. Pricing intentions rose from 73.7 to 74.0. Inflation expectations rose from 6.02 to 6.23.

                ANZ said that most activity indicators were little changed, but residential construction intentions plummeted again to a fresh record low (-73.7). Inflation pressures remain intense, but may be topping out.

                It added: “New Zealand businesses are well aware that the Reserve Bank is on a mission to reduce customer demand for their wares in order to reduce inflation. No wonder they’re feeling apprehensive.”

                Full release here.

                Australia retail sales rose 0.2% mom in Jun, sixth-straight monthly rise

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Australia retail sales rose 0.2% mom to AUD 34.2B in June, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Through the year, sales rose 12.0% yoy.

                  Ben Dorber, head of retail statistics at the ABS, said: “While the 0.2 per cent rise in June 2022 was the sixth-straight rise in retail turnover, it was also the smallest so far this year….

                  “Given the increases in prices we’ve seen in the Consumer Price Index, it will also be important to look at changes in the volumes of retail goods, in next week’s release of quarterly data.”

                  Full release here.

                  BoJ Amamiya: We need to support economic activity with accommodative monetary policy

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said, “Japan’s economy hasn’t recovered yet to pre-pandemic levels… The foundations for an economic recovery remain weak and the outlook for wages is highly uncertain. As such, we need to support economic activity with accommodative monetary policy.”

                    “Achieving our price target means having consumer inflation hit 2% on average over the business cycle, not a temporary rise to that level driven by exogenous factors such as increasing energy import costs,” he emphasized.

                    Japan’s CPI core (all-item ex fresh food), has been above BoJ’s 2% target for three straight months. But officials are seeing it as temporary, at least until wage pressures build up.

                    DOW resuming near term rebound as Fed Powell signals slowing tightening ahead

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      US stocks staged a strong rebound overnight after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that tightening could slow ahead. After yesterday’s 75bps hike, federal funds rate is now at 2.25-2.50%, close to the 2.5% neutral rate.

                      “While another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting, that is a decision that will depend on the data we get between now and then,” Powell said. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.”

                      “As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation,” he also noted.

                      DOW rose 436 pts or 1.37% to close at 31799. Rebound from 29653.29 is resuming and the break above 55 day EMA again is a positive signal. Further rally is now in favor, as long as 31534.08 minor support holds, towards 33272.34 resistance. Firm break there will add to the case that whole corrective fall from 36952.65 has completed.

                      Fed chair Jerome Powell press conference live stream

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                        ActionForex
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                        Fed hikes 75bps, spending and production softened

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          FOMC raises federal funds rate target by 75 bps to 2.25-2.50% as widely expected. The decision was by unanimous vote.

                          In the accompanying statement, Fed said that recent indicators of spending and production have “softened”. But job gains have been “robust”. Inflation remains “elevated”. Russia’s war against Ukraine are “creating additional upward pressure on inflation” and are “weighing on global economic activity”.

                          Fed pledged to “continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook” and be “be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals”.

                          Full statement here.

                          US goods exports rose 2.5% mom, imports dropped -0.5% mom

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US exports of goods rose 2.5% mom or USD 4.4B to USD 181.5B in June. Imports of goods dropped -0.5% mom or USD -1.5B to to USD 279.7B. Good trade deficit came in at USD -98.2B, smaller than expectation of USD -103.2B.

                            Wholesale inventories rose 1.9% mom, 25.6% yoy to USD 896.0B. Retail inventories rose 2.0% mom, 19.9% yoy to USD 723.0B.

                            Full release here.

                            US durable goods orders rose 1.9% mom, ex-transport orders up 0.3% mom

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              US durable goods orders rose 1.9% mom to USD 272.6B in June, much better than expectation of -0.5% mom decline. Ex-transport orders rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.4% mom. Transportation equipment rose 5.4% mom to USD 92.7B.

                              Full release here.

                              Germany Gfk consumer sentiment hit another rock bottom at -30.6

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for August dropped from -27.7 to -30.6, below expectation of -28.2. That’s another record low since the start of the series in 1991. In July, economic expectations dropped from -11.7 to -18.2. Income expectations dropped from -33.5 to -45.7. Propensity to buy dropped from -13.7 to -14.5.

                                “In addition to concerns about disrupted supply chains, the war in Ukraine and soaring energy and food prices, there are now worries about sufficient gas supplies for businesses and households next winter. This is currently causing consumer sentiment to hit rock bottom,” explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert. “Especially as a tight supply of natural gas is likely to add to the pressure on energy prices and thus inflation.”

                                Full release here.

                                Fed to hike another 75bps again, some previews

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.75% today, for the second time in a row, to bring the federal funds rate target rate to 2.25-2.50%. More tightening is expected afterwards, as most FOMC members believed that interest rates have enter into “restrictive” region to curb inflation, which is already at multi-decade high.

                                  The questions are on the pace of tightening beyond the neutral range, its impact on economic activity, and risks of recession as a result. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be grilled for these questions. But a concrete answer is unlikely for now. The next rate-setting meeting on September 21 is nearly two months away. Two sets of prices, jobs and activity data will be published during the time, and before the new economic projections. The situation is so uncertain for Powell to tell the markets anything meaningful.

                                  Here are some previews on Fed:

                                  As for market reaction, a major focus is on 10-year yield. It’s so far still sitting comfortably above a key support zone of 2.709 and 38.2% retracement of 1.343 to 3.483 at 2.665. There is prospect of a rebound to flatten the yield curve of 2-year (3.053%) to 10-year (2.787%). But a firm break below 2.709 could signal a flush into bonds, which could send 10-year yield towards 50% at 2.413, and below. That will threaten the curve of 3-month (2.507) to 10-year yield, which will be a big warning.

                                  Australia CPI surged to record 6.1% yoy, but below expectations

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Australia CPI rose 1.8% qoq in Q2, blow expectation of 1.9% qoq. For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 5.1% yoy to 6.1% yoy, below expectation of 6.3% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI came in at 1.5% qoq, 4.9% yoy, versus expectation of 1.5% qoq, 4.7% yoy.

                                    The quarterly increase was the second highest since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), following on from a 2.1% increase in Q1. The annual rise was the highest since the introduction of GST.

                                    “Annual trimmed mean inflation was the highest since the series commenced in 2003 and annual goods inflation was the highest since 1987, as the impacts of supply disruptions, rising shipping costs and other global and domestic inflationary factors flowed through the economy,” said Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Michelle Marquardt.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US consumer confidence dropped to 95.7, inflation and rate hikes continue posing strong headwinds

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from 98.4 to 95.7 in July, below expectation of 96.3. Present Situation Index dropped from 147.2 to 141.3. Expectations Index dropped from 65.8 to 65.3.

                                      “Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers.”

                                      “As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July. Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      EUR/CHF downside breakout on gas crunch worries

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Euro is knocked down by renewed concerns over Russia gas supply cut to EU countries. That came after Russia said yesterday that it would cut gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 to Germany, to just 20% of normal capacity, down from current 40%.

                                        EUR/CHF finally resumes recent down trend through 0.9804 low. Outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9948 resistance holds. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650.

                                        Japan government: Economy is picking up moderately

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
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                                          In the latest monthly report, Japan’s Cabinet office upgraded its assessment slightly, and noted that “the Japanese economy is picking up moderately.” That compared to showing signs of picking up in previous report.

                                          But the report also warned of the downside risks from “fluctuations in the financial and capital markets amid global monetary tightening.”

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