ECB Makhlouf: The era of negative rates is reaching its conclusion

    ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said today, ECB has reached the point “act”. And, “the balance of advantage has tilted decisively towards the need for further action, albeit not necessarily at a similar pace to that of other central banks”.

    “Our objective is for inflation to be at 2% over the medium term – levels are significantly above that now, and it is time for the Council to move to end net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme next month or in July,” he said.

    Makhlouf added, it’s “realistic to expect that the first move in the ECB’s interest rates will happen soon after net asset purchases end and that rates are likely to be in positive territory by early next year.” But he didn’t specify when the rate hike would occurs.

    “The era of negative rates is reaching its conclusion,” he said.

    BoE Ramsden: I don’t think we’ve gone far enough yet on bank rate

      BoE Deputy Governor Governor Dave Ramsden told Bloomberg that stronger than expected job market could push inflation further higher from current 7% to 10% before year end. “Given what we know about the UK labor market, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out to be a bit tighter,” he said. “I think there are upside risks on inflation the medium term.”

      “Certainly on the basis of my current assessment of prospects, we’re not there yet in terms of how far monetary policy has to tighten,” he said. “I’m still very, very supportive of the forward guidance that there may well need to be further tightening in the coming months.”

      June “will be a chance to take stock — in this extraordinary period we really are learning things everyday,” he said. “I don’t think we’ve gone far enough yet on bank rate, but I do think that what we’ve already done is having an impact.”

      UK GDP contracted -0.1% mom in Mar, up 0.8% qoq in Q1

        UK GDP contracted -0.1% mom in March, worse than expectation of 0.1% mom growth. That came after no growth in February (revised down from 0.1%). For the month, services dropped -0.2%. Production dropped -0.2%. Construction grew 1.7%. Monthly GDP is still 1.2% above pre-coronavirus levels, with services 1.5% above, construction 3.7% above and production -1.6% below.

        For Q1, GDP grew 0.8% qoq, below expectation of 1.0% qoq. Services rose 0.4% qoq. Production rose 1.2% qoq. Construction rose 3.8% qoq. Quarterly GDP was 0.7% above pre-coronavirus level.

        Also released, manufacturing production came in at -0.2% mom, 1.9% yoy in March, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 2.3% yoy. Industrial production was at -0.2% mom, 0.7% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 0.4% yoy. Goods trade deficit widened to GBP -23.9B, versus expectation of GBP -18.5B.

        BoJ: Necessary to continue with current powerful monetary easing

          In the Summary of Opinions of the April 27-28 meeting, BoJ noted that “as Japan is a commodity importer, the rise in commodity prices leads to an outflow of income from Japan and thus exerts downward pressure on the economy.” And, “it is necessary for the Bank to continue with the current powerful monetary easing and thereby firmly support the economy”

          One opinion noted that “one reason for the yen’s recent depreciation is that economic conditions in Japan have been different from those in the United States and Europe, and it is not appropriate that the Bank change its policy with the aim of controlling foreign exchange rates.”

          “With a view to clarifying the Bank’s stance to date of not accepting the long-term interest rate exceeding 0.25 percent and to avoiding a situation where daily operations are unnecessarily factored in by the market, it is appropriate for the Bank to announce in advance that it will conduct fixed-rate purchase operations at 0.25 percent every business day, unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted. ”

          Full Summary of Opinions here.

          Fed Bullard: We can proceed on a plan of 50bps per meeting

            In a Yahoo Finance interview, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that a 75bps rate hike is “not my base case”, and he gave a nod to the 50bps per meeting plan.

            “We’ve got a good plan in place and the committee is, based on public comments anyway from my colleagues, has coalesced around a plan of 50 basis points per meeting. So I think we can proceed on that,” he said.

            Bullard added that whether there would be 50bps hike at each of the upcoming meeting, to bring interest rate to 3.5% by year end, would be data-dependent. “It’s possible inflation could moderate a lot. It’s possible the real economy could take twists and turns. And so I don’t think we want to be promising today what we’re going to do in December,” he said.

            Full interview here.

            Fed Bostic: We are going to get our policy rate certainly to a neutral space

              Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday, “we are going to get our policy rate certainly to a neutral space where we are no longer providing accommodation. If inflation stays at high levels or levels that are too high — by too high, it’s really not moving back towards our 2% target — then I am going to be supporting moving more.”

              “We moved our policy rate 25 basis points and the 30 year (mortgage) moved 2 percentage points. That is tremendous responsiveness,” Bostic also noted. “The moves that we have seen in rates and in yields are a sign that the markets still believe the Fed has credibility. They have said what we are going to do and they have priced in us doing them … That is an important dimension in the marketplace.”

              US CPI slowed to 8.3% yoy, core CPI down to 6.2% yoy, but food index surged

                US headline CPI rose 0.3% mom in April, above expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Food index rose 0.9% mom. Energy index declined -2.8% mom.

                Over the 12-month period, headline CPI slowed from 8.5% yoy to 8.3% yoy, but beat expectation of 8.1% yoy. CPI core slowed from 6.5% yoy to 6.2% yoy, also beat expectation of 6.0% yoy. Food index rose 9.4% yoy, highest since April 1981. Energy index rose 30.3% yoy.

                Full release here.

                ECB Lagarde: First hike could come only few weeks after early Q3

                  ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated in a speech that the asset purchases could end “early” in Q3, and interest rate hikes could start “only a few weeks” after that.

                  “We will end net purchases under the asset purchase programme. Judging by the incoming data, my expectation is that they should be concluded early in the third quarter,” she said.

                  “The first rate hike, informed by the ECB’s forward guidance on the interest rates, will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases,” she reiterated.

                  “We have not yet precisely defined the notion of ‘some time’, but I have been very clear that this could mean a period of only a few weeks. After the first rate hike, the normalisation process will be gradual,” she added..

                  Full speech here.

                  ECB Muller: We may get to positive rate by end of the year

                    ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller said the central bank could already outline its interest rate expectations for the coming months at the June meeting. He added that the first step is to end asset purchases in early July, but “we could even discuss if we should end purchases a few weeks earlier.”

                    “The real issue is interest rate increases and we shouldn’t have much of a delay there either,” Müller added. “The recent data confirm that the monetary policy stance is not appropriate given where inflation is and given inflation expectations.”

                    “Even if we go by 25 basis point increments, we may get to a positive rate by the end of the year. For the time being, 25 basis points would be an appropriate increment.”

                    Separately, another Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau told France Inter radio today, “I think that from this summer onwards, the ECB will gradually raise its interest rates.” The Ukraine war provided a “negative shock” for the French economy. He added, “inflation is the principal concern of companies and citizens.”

                    Gold extending decline towards 1817

                      Gold’s near term decline resumed overnight and broke through 1850.18 support. Near term outlook now stays bearish as long as 1909.57 resistance holds. Next target is 100% projection of 2070.06 to 1889.79 from 1998.23 at 1817.86. The whole fall from 2070.06 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 2074.84 (2020 high). Firm break of 1817.86 could prompt more downside acceleration towards 1682.60 to finally finish the pattern.

                      Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 90.4 in May, lowest since Aug 2020

                        Australia Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index dropped from 95.8 to 90.4 in May. That’s the lowest level since August 2020. The reading was also -8.4% below the average seen in 2019. The -5.6% decline was the largest since the -6.9% fall in June 2016.

                        Looking at some details, family finances for the next 12 months dropped from 105.1 to 93.3. Economic conditions for the next 12 months dropped from 95.9 to 90.4. Unemployment expectations rose from 99.2 to 109.6.

                        Westpac said two “stunning developments are clearly unnerving consumers”. Firstly, headline inflation surged above 5% for the first time since 2007. Secondly, RBA raised interest rate for the first time since 2010.

                        Regarding RBA policies, Westpac said “having now begun its tightening cycle the Board is almost certain to follow up the move in May with a further move in June”. It added, “the need to avoid an over-shoot later in the cycle is why, despite this disturbing tumble in Consumer Sentiment, we believe the prudent approach in June would be to lift rates by 40bps rather than the 25 bps that is currently favoured by most analysts.

                        Full release here.

                        Fed Mester: Do more upfront rather than waiting

                          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters, “I would need to see monthly numbers coming down in a compelling way before I would want to conclude we could now rest” on raising interest rates.

                          “The risks to inflation are skewed to the upside and the cost of allowing that inflation to continue is high,” she said, an argument for the Fed “doing more upfront rather than waiting.”

                          “I don’t think it (inflation) will get back to 2% next year. But it will be well on its way, in the range of two and half percent but moving in the right direction,” she said. “And given where the economy is and all the factors affecting inflation that are outside of our realm, that is acceptable to me.”

                          Fed Waller: Front-load it, get it done

                            Fed Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday, “It’s time to raise rates now when the economy can take it. Front-load it, get it done, and then we can judge how the economy is proceeding later, and if we have to do more, we’re going to do more.”

                            “The labor market is strong. The economy is doing so well,” he said. “This is the time to hit it if you think there’s going to be any kind of negative reaction, because the economy can take it.”

                            ECB Nagel: Delaying monetary policy turnaround is a risky strategy

                              ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said today, “as inflation in the euro area continues to run high, we need to act.” He expects the asset purchases to end in June and “will advocate a first step normalizing ECB interest rates in July.”

                              Nagel warned that risk of acting too late on inflation is “increasing notably”. “Delaying a monetary-policy turnaround is a risky strategy,” he said. “The more inflationary pressures spread, the greater the need for a very strong and abrupt interest rate hike.”

                              Fed Mester supports 50bps hikes at next couple FOMC meetings

                                Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said, she supports 50bps rate hikes at the next couple FOMC meetings. She also expects interest rate to go above 2.5% to bring inflation down.

                                “We need to get monetary policy in a more neutral and then we have to evaluate how much is needed to move that inflation needle down. It’s going to be challenging… because there’s things going down on the supply and demand sides,” she said.

                                “It may very well be that the unemployment rate will have to move up a little bit, we may get another quarter of negative or slow growth, but that’s going to have to happen if we want to get inflation down,” she told Yahoo Finance. “I don’t think what are planning to do with monetary policy, at least in my base case, is going to push the economy into a downturn that’s sort of a sustained downturn.”

                                Fed Williams: To move expeditiously in bringing rate back to more normal levels this year

                                  In a speech, New York Fed President John Williams said he expects the FOMC to “move expeditiously in bringing the federal funds rate back to more normal levels this year”. The ongoing pandemic and Ukraine war “bring a tremendous amount of complexity and uncertainty”. Fed will “need to be  data dependent and adjust our policy actions as circumstances warrant.”.

                                  For 2022, Williams expects core inflation to be nearly 4%, before falling to around 2.50% next year, then further decline to close to 2% long-run goal in 2024. He also expects GDP growth to be around 2% in 2022 while unemployment rate to remain around its current low level.

                                  Full speech here.

                                  Germany ZEW rose to -34.3 in May, deterioration still assumed, just slower

                                    Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment improved from -41 to -34.3 in May, above expectation of -42.5. Germany Current Situation index, however, dropped from -30.8 to -36.5, slightly below expectation of -35.0. Eurozone Economic Sentiment rose from -43.0 to -29.5, above expectation of -41.0. Eurozone Current Situation index dropped -6.5 pts to -35.0.

                                    ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach: “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased moderately this month but still remains at a relatively low level. Compared to last month, the outlook for the economic situation in Germany is thus slightly less pessimistic. The experts still assume that it will continue to deteriorate, but at a lower pace than expected before.

                                    “The strong restrictions in China to fight against new Covid-19 infections lead to a strong reduction in the assessment of the current economic situation in China. This is a heavy weight on the future development of the German economy.

                                    “With regard to the ECB’s monetary policy stance there is a large majority of experts expecting an increase in interest rates during the next six months. Accordingly they expect a decline of inflation rates from their very high current level.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoJ Kuroda: Retail level CBDC is an option

                                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in an online seminar that the central bank has not decided on central bank digital currency (CBDC) yet. But he noted it could be an option for securing a seamless and safe infrastructure.

                                      “CBDC is not the only way, so a national discussion is needed as to how to achieve this goal,” Kuroda said, adding, “retail level CBDC is an option.”

                                      BoJ started the second phase of the CBDC experiments in April. The process will last for around a year.

                                      NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY extending correction on risk aversion

                                        NZD/JPY dived lower this week as risk aversion dominated the markets. It is now extending the fall from 87.33 top towards 100% projection of 87.33 to 83.28 from 84.81 at 80.76. Such decline is currently still seen as a correction only. Hence, strong support is expected from 80.76 to contain downside to bring rebound. But break of 84.81 resistance is still needed to confirm completion of the fall, otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

                                        Similarly, AUD/JPY is also extending the fall from 95.73 and should target 100% projection of 95.73 to 90.41 from 94.00 at 88.68. Strong support is expected from this level to complete the correction. But break of 94.00 resistance is needed to confirmation completion of the correction, or risk will stay on the downside. too.

                                        Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 10 in Apr, conditions rose to 20

                                          Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 16 to 10 in April. Business conditions rose from 15 to 20. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 23 to 27. Profitability conditions rose from 12 to 22. Employment conditions were unchanged at 10.

                                          NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “Price growth eased somewhat in the April survey after hitting record rates in March, but remained high when looking at the history of the survey, supporting our expectation that inflation will remain elevated in Q2 and likely Q3.

                                          “Still, the strong business conditions including trading conditions and profitability show that the economy is faring quite well and so far, demand is holding up in the face of higher inflation.”

                                          Full release here.