ECB de Guindos: July rate hike is possible but not likely

    In an interview published on Sunday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reiterated that ECB decided to end asset purchases in Q3. “In my opinion, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t happen in July,” he said.

    As for rate hike, “it could be months, weeks or days” after ending the asset purchases. “July is possible, but that’s not to say it’s likely,” he added.

    After the first hike, “we are driven by data, not by markets. Markets can sometimes be wrong. Within the Governing Council we haven’t discussed any predetermined path for rate rises.”

    Full interview here.

    ECB Lane: Scale and timing of interest normalization are data-dependent

      ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a Bloomberg TV interview, “the story is not the issue about are we going to move away from -0.5% for the deposit rate. The big issue which we do need to still be data-dependent about is the scale and the timing of interest-rate normalization.”

      “In the near-term, yes, inflation is very high and that does carry its own risk of momentum,” Lane admitted. “On the other hand the high energy prices are eating into disposable incomes, it’s reducing consumption and the war has a scope – especially depending on how it goes – in terms of mapping into lower investment, lower consumption, confidence effects and extra pressure on energy.”

      US PCE price index rose to 6.6% yoy, but core PCE ticked down to 5.2% yoy

        US personal income rose 0.5% mom or USD 107.2B in March, slightly above expectation of 0.4% mom. Spending rose 1.1% mom or USD 185.0B, above expectation of 0.6% mom.

        Headline PCE price index accelerated from 6.3% yoy to 6.6% yoy, above expectation of 6.5% yoy. Excluding good and energy, PCE core price index ticked down from 5.3% yoy to 5.2% yoy, below expectation of 5.3% yoy. Energy prices increased 33.9% yoy while food prices rose 9.2% yoy.

        Full release here.

        Canada GDP grew 1.1% mom in Feb, to grow further in Mar

          Canada GDP grew strongly by 1.1% mom in February, above expectation of 0.8% mom. That’s the fastest monthly growth since March 2021, and the ninth consecutive monthly expansion. Services-producing industries grew 0.9% while goods-producing industries grew 1.5%. 16- of industrial sectors expanded. Advance information indicates that GDP increased 0.5% mom in March.

          Full release here.

          Eurozone CPI ticked up to 7.5% yoy in Apr, core CPI rose to 3.5% yoy

            Eurozone CPI ticked up from 7.4% yoy to 7.5% yoy in April, matched expectations. CPI core rose from 2.9% yoy to 3.5% yoy, above expectation of 3.1% yoy. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in April (38.0%, compared with 44.4% in March), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (6.4%, compared with 5.0% in March), non-energy industrial goods (3.8%, compared with 3.4% in March) and services (3.3%, compared with 2.7% in March).

            Full release here.

            Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q1, EU up 0.4% qoq

              Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q1, slightly below expectation of 0.3% qoq. Comparing with the same quarter a year ago, Eurozone GDP grew 5.0% yoy.

              EU GDP grew 0.4% qoq, 5.2% yoy. Among the Member States for which data are available for the first quarter 2022, Portugal (+2.6%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Austria (+2.5%) and Latvia (+2.1%). Declines were recorded in Sweden (-0.4%) and in Italy (-0.2%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

              Full release here.

              SNB Jordan: Swiss can withstand franc being stronger in nominal terms

                SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said two reasons have spoken against a rise in interest rate in reaction to inflation. “First, inflationary pressure is moderate here in Switzerland. Second, inflation is likely to return to the range compatible with price stability in the foreseeable future,” he said.

                SNB forecasts inflation to average 2.1% this year before declining in 2023 and 2024. “The monetary conditions are therefore appropriate at present,” Jordan said. “However, should there be signs of a strengthening and spread in inflationary pressure, we will not hesitate to take the necessary measures.”

                On Swiss Franc exchange rate, he said, it there had been “hardly any change in the real exchange rate” over the past few quarters. “We do not react mechanically to every instance of upward pressure,” he added. “If you have followed the Swiss franc closely over the past months, you will know that it has gradually appreciated and has at times even fallen below parity to the euro.”

                Also, SNB had “quite deliberately” allowed appreciation of the Franc. “This means that our economy can withstand the franc being stronger in nominal terms,” Jordan said. “The higher prices abroad and the nominally stronger Swiss franc roughly balance one another out.”

                Germany GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q1, Ukraine war weighs on short-term development

                  Germany GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q1, matched expectations. On the same quarter a year earlier, GDP grew 3.7% yoy. The growth was mainly due to higher capital formation, whereas the balance of exports and imports had a downward effect on economic growth. The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have had a growing impact on the short-term economic development since late February.

                  Full release here.

                  Swiss KOF economic barometer rose to 101.7, contrast between corona easing and war

                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer improved from 99.7 to 101.7 in April, above expectation of 99.3. It’s back above long-term average of 100 after dipping below that level in March. Outlook for the Swiss economy is therefore rather favorable in the short term.

                    KOF said, accommodation and food service activities and the other services sector are responsible for the rise. On the other hand, indicators for foreign demand are currently the strongest drag.

                    It added, “this contrast highlights the tension between Corona easing and international burdens, especially the Ukraine war.”

                    Full release here.

                    Also from Swiss, retail sales dropped -6.6% yoy in March, below expectation of 13.3% yoy rise.

                    France GDP stagnated in Q1 with sharp decline in household consumption

                      France GDP stagnated with 0.0% qoq growth in Q1, below expectation of 0.3% qoq. Households’ consumption expenditure sharply decreased (-1.3% after +0.6%) while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slightly decelerated (+0.2% after +0.3%). Finally, internal demand excluding inventory changes contributed to -0.6 points to GDP growth, after +0.5 points in the previous quarter.

                      Full GDP release here.

                      Also from France, consumer spending dropped -1.3% mom in March, worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. CPI accelerated from 5.1% yoy to 5.4% yoy in April, above expectation of 5.1% yoy.

                      US initial jobless claims dropped to 180k, continuing claims down to 1.408m

                        US initial jobless claims dropped -5k to 180k in the week ending April 23, slightly above expectation of 178k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 180k.

                        Continuing claims dropped -1k to 1408k in the week ending April 16. That’s the lowest level since February 7, 1970, when it was 1397k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -24.5k to 1455k, lowest since March 14, 1970 when it was 1435k.

                        Full release here.

                        US GDP dropped -1.4% annualized in Q1, first contraction since Q2 2020

                          US GDP unexpectedly contracted -1.4% annualized in Q1, much worse than expectation of 1.1% growth. That’s also the first contraction reading since Q2 2020.

                          The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased.

                          Full release here.

                          Yuan extends down trend, USD/CNH pressing important resistance

                            Offshore Chinese Yuan’s decline resumes today with USD/CNH hitting as high as 6.637 so far. Earlier this week, PBoC announced to cut the foreign exchange reserve ratio by 100bps from 9% to 8%. That was aimed providing liquidity to stabilize exchange rate. But so far the impact was very brief.

                            Capital was seen flowing out of China in accelerated manner since march, due to divergence in policies with other major central bank. Russia invasion of Ukraine, and the risk of tough spread of tough Shanghai like lockdowns added additional uncertainty.

                            Nevertheless, technically, USD/CNH is now at an important resistance of 38.2% retracement of 7.1961 (2020 high) to 6.3057 (2022 low) at 6.6458. Strong resistance could be seen at the current level to cap upside. Break of 6.544 support would indicate short term topping. However, sustained break of 6.6458 would be a significant development, which could push USD/CNH further to 61.8% retracement at 6.8560.

                            ECB de Guindos: Russia invasion casts a dark shadow over Europe

                              In remarks to a Committee of the European Parliament, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said, Russian invasion of Ukraine has “cast a dark shadow over” Europe, as a human tragedy and affecting the economy. Economic activity is expected to continue to growth this year, “albeit at a slower pace than was expected “. The war has “amplified the impact on consumer energy prices”.

                              The surge in energy prices is “reducing demand and raising production costs” while the war is “weighing heavily on business and consumer confidence and has created new bottlenecks.” These developments point to slower growth in the period ahead.

                              Prices increased will “most likely remain high over the coming months”. Medium term inflation expectations indicates inflation ares around the 2% target. But, ” inflation expectations have been rising in recent months though and initial signs of above-target revisions in those measures warrant close monitoring.”

                              He reiterated that the APP will be concluded in Q3 and changes to interest rates will follow “some time after” the end of the net purchases, and will be “gradual”.

                              Full remarks here.

                              BoJ stands pat, maintains dovish bias

                                BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, by 8-1 vote, with dove Goushi Kataoka dissented again. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%, without upper limit on JGB purchases. BoJ also clarified that it will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 0.25% every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations.

                                The central bank also reiterated that it will “expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner.”

                                It also pledged that it “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; it also expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels.”

                                In the new economic projections, GDP is forecast to grow:

                                • 2.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised down from 3.8%)
                                • 1.9% in fiscal 2023 (revised up from 1.1%)
                                • 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

                                CPI (all items less fresh food) is expected to be at:

                                • 1.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised up from 1.1%).
                                • 1.1% in fiscal 2023 (unchanged).
                                • 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

                                Full statement here.

                                Full Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

                                New Zealand ANZ business confidence ticked down to -42 in Apr

                                  New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped slightly from -41.9 to -42.0 in April. Own activity outlook rose from 3.3 to 8.0. Export intentions rose from 7.9 to 9.5. Investment intentions dropped from 5.2 to 3.1. Employment intentions dropped from 12.3 to 9.4. Cost expectations dropped from 95.9 to 95.5. Inflation expectations rose further from 5.51 to 5.92.

                                  ANZ said: “With plenty of wage and other cost inflation in the pipeline, it’ll be some time before the RBNZ can conclude that they’re getting ahead of the inflation game. We continue to expect another 50bp hike in May, and steady 25bp increases thereafter taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  NZ goods exports rose 17% yoy in Mar, imports rose 25% yoy

                                    New Zealand goods exports rose 17% yoy to NZD 6.7B in March. Goods imports rose 25% yoy to NZD 7.1B. Trade balance was a deficit of NZD -392m, versus expectation of NZD -648m.

                                    As a result of the monthly deficit in March 2022, the annual goods trade deficit has further widened to reach NZD -9.1B for the March 2022 year.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Germany economy ministry cut 2022 GDP growth forecast sharply to 2.2%

                                      Germany’s economy ministry cuts 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, down from January’s projection of 3.6%. Nevertheless, 2023 GDP growth forecast is upgraded slightly from 2.3% to 2.5%. It expects Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulted sanctions and higher energy prices will weigh on output.

                                      Inflation is forecast to be at 6.1% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, on rising energy prices and consumer prices.

                                      US trade deficit widened to USD 125.3B in Mar

                                        US goods exports rose USD 11.4B over the month to USD 169.3B in March. Goods imports rose USD 30.3B to USD 294.6B. Trade deficit came in at USD -125.3B, versus expectation of USD -105.0B.

                                        Wholesale inventories rose2.3% mom to USD 837.7B. Retail inventories rose 2.0% mom to USD 684.3B.

                                        Full release here.

                                        GBP/CAD extending down trend towards 2016 low

                                          GBP/CAD’s down trend continues this week on broad based selloff in Sterling, while Canadian Dollar has been relatively resilient. Current decline should target 161.8% projection of 1.7623 to 1.6636 from 1.7375 at 1.5778. This lies inside key long term support zone between 1.5746 (2016 low) and 1.5875 (2019 low).

                                          The question is whether such 1.5746/5875 support zone would hold. If not, that would firstly mark the resume of the down trend from 2.0971 (2015 high). More importantly, that would also raise the chance of resumption of down trend from 2.5471 (2002 high) through 1.4831 (2010 low).