RBA minutes; Developments have brought forward liking timing of rate hike

    In the minutes of April 5 meeting, RBA said, inflation in Australia had “picked up” and a “further increase was expected” with measures of underlying inflation in the March quarter expected to be above 3%. Wages growth had “picked up” too but “had been below rates likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at the target.” These developments have “brought forward the likely timing of the first increase in interest rates. ”

    “Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available on both inflation and the evolution of labour costs. Consistent with its announced framework, the Board agreed that it would be appropriate to assess this evidence and other incoming information as it sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.”

    Full RBA minutes here.

    RBNZ Orr: It’s more about hiking sooner rather than more

      RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in an IMF event, “we’ve been acting reasonably aggressively to tighten monetary conditions. We’ve provided strong forward guidance that we expect to be doing more rate rises over coming quarters.”

      But he also noted, “that was more about doing it sooner rather than believing we have to do more,” he said. “It’s just getting on with it so people can understand what we are about.” Back in February, RBNZ projected that OCR would peak at 3.25% at the end of 2023.

      Raising rates too high and “you really run the risk of having a sharper than needed slowdown in economic activity,” he said. “On the other hand, if you go too slow its inflation expectations that will get away from us.”

      “At the moment, the balance of risks as far as the monetary policy committee is concerned is very much weighted to constraining those inflation expectations in the medium term,” he said. “We know the long-term cost of letting inflation expectations get away.”

      Fed Bullard wants rates above neutral in Q3

        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday, “we want to get to neutral expeditiously, I guess is the word of the day. I’ve even said we want to get above neutral as early as the third quarter and try to put further downward pressure on inflation at that point.”

        As for the May FOMC meeting, “more than 50 basis points is not my base case at this point,” he said. “I wouldn’t rule it out, but it is not my base case here.”

        Bullard also reiterated that he would like to see interest rate at 3.50% by the end of the year. “You can’t do it all at once, but I think it behooves us to get to that level by the end of the year,” he said.

        Fed Williams: Make sense to move expeditiously towards more-normal levels of rate

          New York Fed President John Williams told Bloomberg TV that a 50bps rate hike in May is a “reasonable option” because the “federal funds rate is very low”. He added, “we do need to move policy back to more neutral levels.”

          “We need to really focus on bringing inflation down to our 2% longer-run goal, and to do that over the next few years. So, that is the number-one focus, and I say that because the economy is strong,” Williams said. “So I do think from a monetary policy point of view, it does make sense for us to move expeditiously towards more-normal levels of the federal funds rate.”

          “I think the economy can withstand real interest rates at neutral or a bit above,” he said. “We’ve seen a dramatic, significant movement in yields and financial conditions over the past several months and that’s already positioning policy well to get supply and demand back into balance.”

          US retail sales rose 0.5% mom in Mar, ex-auto sales up 1.1% mom

            US retail sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 665.7B in March, slightly below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 1.1% mom, above expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-gasoline sales dropped -0.3% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 0.2% mom.

            Total sales for January through March period were up 12.9% yoy.

            Full release here.

            US initial claims rose to 185k, continuing claims dropped to 1.475m

              US initial jobless claims rose 18k to 185k in the week ending April 9, above expectation of 175k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 172k.

              Continuing claims dropped -48k to 1475k in the week ending April 2. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -30k to 1512k.

              Full release here.

              ECB press conference live stream

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                ECB to conclude asset purchases in Q3, keeps rates unchanged

                  ECB announced that the Asset Purchase Program “should be concluded in the third quarter. Monthly net purchases under the APP will continue to be EUR 40B in April, EUR 30B in May and EUR 20B in June. The calibration of net purchases for Q3 will be data-dependent and depend on the outlook.

                  Interest rates are held unchanged with main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate and deposit rate at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. Adjustments to rates will take place “some time” after ending the APP and will be “gradual”.

                  Full statement here.

                  ECB to turn more hawkish, EUR/CHF recovering

                    ECB is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today. But with inflation at a record high of 7.5%, the central bank is also expected to sing a more hawkish tune. There should be an announcement to put a firm end date to the asset purchase program. Interest rate hike will only come “some time” after ending the purchases.

                    There are talks that putting an end date to asset purchases in June would open up the possibility of a rate hike in September, followed by another in December. But President Christine Lagarde will certainly continue to sound non-committal, but emphasize the importance of graduality, optionality and flexibility for the policy path ahead.

                    Here are some previews on ECB:

                    EUR/CHF’s reaction to ECB decision and press conference is worth some attention. So far, the decline from 1.0400 is not impulsive looking. The cross has also started to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. A break above 1.0204 minor resistance today will suggest that such pull back is finished. More importantly, in this case, rebound from 0.9970 is likely ready to resume through 1.0400. That, if happens, could give Euro a helping hand elsewhere.

                    Australia employment rose 17.9k in Mar, unemployment rate unchanged at 4%

                      Australia employment grew 17.9k in March, below expectation of 30.0k. Full-time jobs rose 20.5k while part-time jobs dropped -2.7k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0%, above expectation of 3.9%. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.4%. Monthly hours worked dropped -0.6% mom.

                      Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “With employment increasing by 18,000 people and unemployment falling by 12,000, the unemployment rate decreased slightly in March, though remained at 4.0 per cent in rounded terms.

                      “4.0 per cent is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in the monthly survey. Lower rates were seen in the series before November 1974, when the survey was quarterly.”

                      Full release here.

                      New Zealand BNZ manufacturing rose to 53.8

                        New Zealand BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose slightly from 53.6 to 53.8 in March. Production dropped from 51.7 to 50.9. Employment rose from 52.0 to 52.4. New orders rose from 58.6 to 61.0. Finished stocks rose from 50.2 to 53.5. Deliveries dropped from 53.1 to 51.9.

                        BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated that “Omicron’s impact may not be as harsh as the first 2020 COVID lockdown or last year’s Delta lockdown, but it’s there. Production has struggled, with the index slipping to 50.9 in March and a bit further below its long-term average.”

                        Full release here.

                        Fed Waller: It’s a good time to do aggressive actions

                          Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a CNBC interview that preferred a “front-loading approach” on tightening. So, “a 50-basis-point hike in May would be consistent with that, and possibly more in June and July.”

                          “I think we’re going to deal with inflation. We’ve laid out our plans,” he said. “We’re in a position where the economy’s strong, so this is a good time to do aggressive actions because the economy can take it.”

                          “I think we want to get above neutral certainly by the latter half of the year, and we need to get closer to neutral as soon as possible,” Waller added.

                          BoC Macklem: Impact of invasion of Ukraine likely to be small

                            In the post meeting press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said, the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on Canadian economic is “likely to be small” for two reasons. Firstly, “our economic links to Ukraine and Russia are very limited”. Secondly, “while the war has reduced global growth overall, it has increased the demand and prices for commodities we produce and export, such as oil, potash and wheat.”

                            He also said Canadians should expect interest rates to “continue to rise toward more normal settings”. BoC estimates the neutral interest rate to be “between 2% and 3%”. After today’s rate hike, policy rate at 1% is “still well below neutral” and “below the pre-pandemic policy rate of 1.75%”.

                            Full press conference statement here.

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                            BoC hikes by 50bps, starts QT, maintains tightening bias

                              BoC raises overnight rate by 50bps to 1.00% as widely expected. The Bank Rate and deposit rate are increased to 1.25% and 1.00% respectively. Additionally, BoC announced to end the asset reinvestment phase and starts quantitative tightening, effect April 25.

                              BoC also maintains tightening bias, and said, “with the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further.” The timing and pace of further rate hikes will be guided by ongoing assessment of the economy.

                              In the Monetary Policy Report, BoC projects the Canadian economy to growth by 4.25% in 2022, then slow to 3.25% in 2023 and then 2.25% in 2024. CPI inflation is projected to average almost 6% in H1 2022, and remain “well above the control range through this year”. CPI is then expected to ease to 2.25% in H2 of 2023, and return to 2% target in 2024. But “there is an increasing risk that expectation s of elevated inflation could become entrenched.

                              Full statement here.

                              US PPI rose 1.4% mom, 11.2% yoy in Mar, record 12-month increase

                                US PPI for final demand rose 1.4% mom in March, above expectation of 1.1% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI accelerated to 11.2% yoy, up from 10.2% yoy, above expectation of 10.5% yoy. That’s also the largest increase since the 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

                                PPI for final demand goods rose 2.3% mom while PPI for final demand services rose 0.9% mom. PPI final demand less goods, energy and trade services rose 0.9% mom, fastest since January 2021. For the 12 months, PPI for final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 7.0% yoy.

                                Full release here.

                                German economists warn of GDP contraction and record inflation in case of Russian energy ban

                                  In the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany’s government advisors warned of a contraction in the economy next year in case of a full halt in Russian natural gas imports. Inflation could also be pushed further the post-war record.

                                  In the baseline scenarios, GDP is estimated to grow 2.7% in 2022 (revised down from fall report’s 4.8%), and 3.1% in 2023 (revised up from 1.9%). Inflation is forecast to hit 6.1% in 2022, highest number in 40 years, then slow to 2.8% in 2023.

                                  However, in case of a Russian energy supply stop, GDP would growth only 1.9% in 2022, and then contract -2.2% in 2023. Inflation will rise further to 7.3% in 2022, a record-high in post-war Germany, then slow to 5% in 2023.

                                  “If gas supplies were to be cut off, the German economy would undergo a sharp recession. In terms of economic policy, it would then be important to support marketable production structures without halting structural change. This change will accelerate for gas-intensive industries even without a boycott, as dependence on Russian supplies, which have been available at favorable prices up to now, is to be overcome quickly anyway,”Stefan Kooths, vice president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said.

                                  “Policymakers should be careful not to provide poorly targeted transfers to cushion high energy prices. If such support schemes are handed out on a wide front, it will further drive up inflation and undermine the important signaling effect of higher energy prices. This in turn exacerbates the problems of low-income households and increases overall economic costs.”

                                  Full release here.

                                   

                                  BoJ Kuroda to underpin recovery by patiently sustaining current powerful monetary easing

                                    BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech today that the economy was expected to pick up on improvement in consumption and robust overseas demand. “The outlook, however, remains highly uncertain due to the impact of the pandemic, as well as developments regarding Ukraine and the impact on commodity prices,” he warned.

                                    Additionally, “recent rising inflation, driven by higher import costs, weighs on Japan’s economy by reducing households’ real income and corporate profits,” Kuroda said. “BOJ will underpin economy’s recovery from pandemic by patiently sustaining current powerful monetary easing.”

                                     

                                    Fed Bullard: Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough

                                      St Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an FT interview, there’s “a bit of a fantasy” in current policy in centrals banks to think thank inflation could be brought down by moving interest rate to neutral.

                                      “Neutral is not putting downward pressure on inflation. It’s just ceasing to put upward pressure on inflation,” he said. “We have to put downward pressure on the component of inflation that we think is persistent.”

                                      “Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough it doesn’t look like, because while some of the inflation may moderate naturally . . . there will be a component of it which won’t,” he added.

                                      Bullard also warned that this week’s CPI report just ” underscores the urgency that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to get moving.”

                                      “If markets and households get the idea that the Fed’s not going to do the right thing and not going to keep inflation under control, then you have to gain credibility by actually doing things that show them that you are serious,” he said.

                                      UK CPI jumped to 7% in Mar, highest since 1992

                                        UK CPI rose 1.1% mom in March, above expectation of 0.7% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 6.2% yoy to 7.0% yoy, above expectation of 6.7% yoy. That’s the highest rate in the historic modeeled series since March 1992, when it stood at 7.1% yoy. RPI rose 1.0% mom, 9.0% yoy, versus expectation of 0.9% mom, 8.8% yoy.

                                        Also released, PPI input came in at 5.2% mom, 19.2% yoy, above expectation of 0.5% mom, 13.4% yoy. PPI output rose 2.0% mom, 11.9% yoy, above expectation of 0.7% mom, 10.2% yoy. CCPI output core rose 2.0% mom, 12.0% yoy, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 10.6% yoy.

                                        Full CPI release here.

                                        BoC to hike 50bps, a look at EUR/CAD

                                          BoC is widely expected to raise interest rate by 50bps to 1.00% today, to curb inflation which was already at a 30-year high. That would be the first half a percentage point hike since May 2000. The tightening cycle will continue for sure, with some expecting to overnight rate hit 2.50% level by the end of the year. Another point to note is BoC would probably start the plan to unwind its balance sheet, and the pace will be closely watched.

                                          Here are some previews:

                                          Canadian Dollar is one of the stronger ones for the month, but rally stalled, following the pull back in oil prices. EUR/CAD’s recovery from 1.3586 temporary low might have completed at 1.3763, after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. 1.3586 low will be back in focus today. Break there will extend larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.5096 to 1.4162 from 1.4633 at 1.3122. Meanwhile, break of 1.3763 will extend the recovery. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3977 resistance holds.