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Eurozone Q4 GDP growth finalized at 0.3% qoq, EU at 0.5% qoq

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    ActionForex
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    Eurozone Q4 GDP growth was finalized at 0.3% qoq while employment grew 0.5% qoq. For 2021 as a whole, GDP grew 5.3%. GDP was 0.2% above pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019.

    EU Q4 GDP growth was finalized at 0.4% qoq while employment grew 0.5% qoq. For 2021 as a whole, GDP grew 5.3%. GDP was 0.6% above pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019.

    GDP growth by Member State: Slovenia (+5.4%) recorded the highest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Malta (+2.3%), Spain and Hungary (both +2.0%). Decreases were observed in Ireland (-5.4%), Austria (-1.5%), Germany (-0.3%), Croatia, Latvia and Romania (all -0.1%).

    Full release here.

    BoJ Kuroda: Inappropriate to scale back stimulus while wage growth remains low

      By
      ActionForex
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      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that inflation expectations and wages growth in Japan are still low. Even if inflation exceeds the 2% target, “it’s inappropriate to deal with by scaling back stimulus or tightening monetary policy,” he said.

      “If crude oil and commodity prices drive up inflation while wage growth remains slow, that would hit households’ real income and corporate profits, and hurt the economy,” he said. “Such conditions won’t lead to sustainable achievement of 2% inflation.”

      Regarding global sanctions on Russia, Kuroda said, “the rouble and Russian government bond prices are falling sharply. We can’t rule out the possibility debt payment from Russia could be disrupted. The chance of Russia defaulting on its debt cannot be ruled out”.

      Australia NAB business confidence rose to 13, getting back on track

        By
        ActionForex
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        Australia NAB business confidence rose from 4 to 13 in February. Business conditions rose from 2 to 9. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 8 to 10. Profitability condition rose from 2 to 5. Employment condition rose from -1 to 8.

        “Overall, the February survey shows that the economy is quickly getting back on track as the Omicron wave recedes,” said said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “The outlook is fairly strong with supply disruptions and cost pressures now the major challenge facing businesses.”

        Full release here.

        Japan bank lending grew 0.4% yoy in Feb, slowest since 2012

          By
          ActionForex
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          Japan bank lending grew 0.4% yoy in February, below expectation of 0.6% yoy. That’s the slowest rate since May 2012. Lending by major banks dropped -1.3% yoy, biggest decline since August 2021. Regional banks’ lending rose 1.7% yoy, smallest increase in more than a decade.

          “We must keep an eye out on how developments in Ukraine could affect corporate funding through rising crude oil prices,” a BOJ official told a briefing.

          Also released, labor cash earnings rose 0.9% yoy in January, above expectation of 0.2% yoy. Current account surplus narrowed to JPY 0.19T in January, below expectation of JPY 0.33T.

          Eurozone Sentix dropped to -7, worst fall in expectations than pandemic

            By
            ActionForex
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            Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped sharply from 16.6 to -7.0 in March, well below expectation of 5.1. That;s also the lowest level since November 2020. Current Situation index dropped from 19.3 to 7.8, lowest since May 2021. Expectations index dropped from 14.0 to -20.8, lowest since August 2012.

            Sentix said: “The first economic indication after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has it all: The economy in Euroland collapses dramatically in the month of March! The assessment of the economic situation decreased by 11.5 points and the expectations decreased by 34.75 points, which is more than ever before in the history of sentix. Even the Corona pandemic or the banking crisis had not led to such a sharp drop in the future outlook!”

            Full release here.

             

            EUR/CAD and GBP/AUD extending free fall

              By
              ActionForex
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              Both Euro and Sterling are under heavy selling pressure today, against commodity currencies.

              EUR/CAD dives to as low as 1.3773 so far and there is no sign of bottoming. Current fall from 1.4633 is part of the down trend from 1.5991 and should target 100% projection of 1.5096 to 1.4162 from 1.4633 at 1.3699.

              Break of 1.3699, and sustained trading below medium term falling channel support, could prompt further downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 1.3122, which is close to key long term support at 1.3019 (2015 low). Meanwhile, in any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.4162 support turned resistances holds, in case of recovery.

              GBP/AUD also dives to as low as 1.7729 so far as all from 1.9218 accelerates. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.8385 minor resistance holds. Next target is 1.7412 low.

              Also, the corrective three-wave structure of the rise from 1.7412 to 1.9218 suggests that down trend from 2.0840 (2020 high) might be ready to resume. Break of 1.7412 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 2.0840 to 1.7412 from 1.9218 at 1.7099 first. It’s a bit early to conclude. But firm break of 1.7099 could prompt further downside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.5790, which is close to long term support at 1.5693 (2016 low).

              Gold gaps up and hits 2000, to target 2074 high first

                By
                ActionForex
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                Gold gaps up as the week open and hit as high as 2000.73 so far. The break of 1974.32 resistance confirms resumption of rally from 1682.60. Further rally is expected as long as 1923.09 minor support holds, to retest 2074.84 high.

                With current upside acceleration, it’s getting more likely that Gold is resuming long term up trend. Break of 2074.84 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 2074.84 from 1682.60 at 2247.86.

                WTI oil hits 130, on track towards 147 record high

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Oil prices surge gap up the week and surge to highest level since 2008. Both the US and its European allies are, responding to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request, considering to ban Russian oil imports for its continuous assault and invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Iran nuclear deal continued to drag on.

                  WTI crude oil breached 130 level and hit as high as 131.82 so far. For now, break of 108.50 support is needed to indicate short term topping, even in case of deep retreat. Further rise is expected to 161.8% projection 33.50 to 85.92 from 62.90 at 147.71. That’s close to the historical high made in July 2008 at 147.27.

                  Australia AiG services rose to 60 in Feb, grew strongly

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Australia AiG Performance of Services Index rose 3.8 pts to 60.0 in February. Looking at some details, sales rose 9.7 pts to 68.6. Employment dropped -2.0 to 54.7. New orders rose 3.2 to 61.1. Supplier deliveries rose 7.6 to 59.0. Input prices dropped -0.1 to 66.0. Selling prices dropped -1.9 to 60.3. Average wages dropped -1.0 to 55.9.

                    Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group, said: “Australian service sector businesses grew strongly in February with sales, employment and new orders all adding to the gains in the December-January period. Prices of inputs and wages were up but not as dramatically as in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Selling prices remained at a level that suggests a capacity to recover a proportion of cost increases in the market.”

                    Full release here.

                    US NFP employment rose 678k in Feb, but wage growth flat

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      US non-farm payroll employment rose 678k in February, above expectation of 438k. Employment was still down -2.1m, or -1.4% from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Job growth was widespread over the month, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction.

                      Unemployment rate dropped from 4.0% to 3.8%, better than expectation of 3.9%. That’s still above pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. Number of unemployed edged down to 6.3m, above pre-pandemic level of 5.7m. Labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.3%.

                      Wage growth was a disappointment, however, with average hourly earning rose 0.0% mom, well below expectation of 0.6% mom.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% mom in Jan, EU up 0.6% mom

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Eurozone retail sales rose only 0.2% mom in January, well below expectation of 1.5% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 0.2% for non-food products, remained unchanged for food, drinks and tobacco, and fell by -1.3% for automotive fuels.

                        EU retail sales rose 0.6% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Poland (+5.9%), Luxembourg (+4.2%) and Denmark (+3.7%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovenia (-4.6%), Portugal (-2.8%), and Lithuania (-2.5%).

                        Full release here.

                        UK PMI construction rose to 59.1, input cost inflation eased

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          UK PMI Construction rose from 56.3 to 59.1 in February, above expectation of 57.4. Markit said growth was led by marked and accelerated rise in housing activity. Input cost inflation dipped to 11-month low. Business confidence eased to softest since January 2021.

                          Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit:

                          “UK construction companies achieved a faster expansion in output volumes in February as the economy recovered from the recent wave of COVID-19 infections related to the Omicron variant. House building had the strongest showing, as signalled by the fastest rise in residential work for eight months.

                          “Despite continued volatility in price and supply conditions, the overall rate of new order growth accelerated from January to reach the fastest since last August as client confidence improved in line with economic activity as Plan B restrictions were fully lifted.

                          “Nonetheless, widespread reports of shortages of materials and labour continued to plague the UK construction sector, while rising input costs placed further strain on businesses. It appears that the peak of price pressures has passed as the rate of input cost inflation eased for the sixth month in a row to reach the softest since last March. At the same time, reports of supplier delays were considerably lower than those seen in the middle of last year. Yet, price and supply constraints weighed on overall business confidence, which eased to the softest in just over a year.”

                          Full release here.

                          Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom in Jan

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom to AUD 32.49B in January. Comparing to the same month a year ago, sales rose 6.4% yoy.

                            “The emergence of the Omicron variant and rising COVID-19 case numbers, combined with an absence of mandated lockdowns has resulted in a range of different consumer behaviours. We have seen the type of spending previously associated with lockdowns occurring simultaneously with those associated with the easing of lockdown conditions,” Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, Ben James said.

                            “This had led to variations across the industries with Food retailing recording a rise in sales consistent with previous COVID-19 outbreaks as consumers exercise caution amidst surging case numbers. However, the absence of lockdowns meant that other discretionary industries which would usually see a fall during the pandemic have recorded mixed results.”

                            Full release here.

                            New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence dropped to record low

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              New Zealand ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence dropped -16 pts to 81.7 in February, hitting a record low since data began in 2004. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.6% while house price inflation expectations eased from 5.3% to 4.8%.

                              ANZ said: “This month’s data looks grim, but there are undoubtedly some temporary impacts in there. Time will tell what the other side looks like, but we do know that Omicron is fast and furious, and will blow through relatively quickly.

                              Full release here.

                              Fed Williams: Higher oil prices not a stagflation issue

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                New York Fed President John Williams said the higher oil prices stemming from Russia invasion of Ukraine may act like a “tax” on American consumers. But, “the economy is coming into this with a lot of forward momentum. It’s definitely not a stagflation issue.”

                                Williams expect inflation to come down later this year but stays “well above” 2% target. He emphasized Fed has the “ability to adjust interest rates higher if inflation ends up being much more persistent or staying much higher than we expect or want”.

                                BoC Macklem not fulling out a 50bps hike if needed

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech yesterday, “tighter monetary policy is necessary to lower the parts of inflation that are driven by domestic demand. And that is critical to bringing price increases back in line with our 2% inflation target.”

                                  BoC will also be considering when to move to quantitative tightening, or QT. “The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target,” he added.

                                  In the Q&A session, Macklem said, there is certainly considerable space to raise interest rates over the course of the year”. “If we have to move more quickly, we are prepared to do that,” he added. “I am not going to rule out a 50-basis-point move in the future.”

                                  Full speech here.

                                  US ISM services dropped to 56.5 in Feb, employment dropped to 48.5

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    US ISM Services PMI dropped from 59.9 to 56.5 in February, well below expectation of 60.5. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped -4.8 to 55.1. New orders dropped -5.6 to 48.5. Employment dropped -3.8 to 48.5. Prices rose 0.8 to 83.1.

                                    ISM said: The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (56.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 215k, better than expectation

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -18k to 215k in the week ending February 25, better than expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -5k to 230.5k.

                                      Continuing claims rose 2k to 1476k in the week ending February 19. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -36k to 1540k, lowest since April 4, 1970.

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB accounts: Main risk is tightening monetary policy too late

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        In the accounts of February ECB meeting, it was argued that monetary policy in the current environment was to “ensure that inflation expectations remained firmly anchored ” and to “avoid the risk of the prevailing high inflation becoming entrenched.”

                                        “Caution was expressed about basing the Governing Council’s assessment on wage data which were only available with a lag.  In this environment, the main risk was no longer of tightening monetary policy too early but too late,” the accounts noted.

                                        It’s also argued that “an earlier monetary policy normalisation would reduce the risk of abrupt tightening later on, which could potentially be associated with high economic and social costs.”

                                        “In the light of the increased uncertainty and the heightened upside risks to the inflation outlook, the general view prevailed that the Governing Council should convey its increased alertness and should monitor incoming information carefully, in particular regarding second-round effects.”

                                        Full accounts here.

                                        Eurozone PPI at 5.2% mom, 30.6% yoy in Jan

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Eurozone PPI rose 5.2% mom, 30.6% yoy in January, above expectation of 3.0% mom, 26.9% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 11.6% in the energy sector, by 2.7% for intermediate goods, by 2.2% for durable consumer goods, by 1.6% for non-durable consumer goods and by 1.5% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 2.2%.

                                          EU PPI rose 4.9% mom, 30.3% yoy. The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Romania (+12.0%), Belgium (+10.2%) and Slovakia (+8.7%). Decreases were observed in Ireland (-11.4%), Sweden (-0.7%), Luxembourg (-0.3%), and Finland (-0.2%).

                                          Full release here.

                                           

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