BoJ Kuroda: Baseline for economy and prices to gradually pick up

    BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the baseline forecast is for Japan’s economy and prices to gradually pick up as rising real household income underpins consumption. Nevertheless, the “economic and price conditions warrant maintaining our easy monetary policy.”

    He acknowledged that the market operation of an offer to buy unlimited amount of bonds on Monday successfully pushed 10-year JGB yield from near 0.25% to 0.22%. But he emphasized it’s a “last resort” and a “powerful means not used explicitly by other central banks.” “We don’t expect to conduct such operation frequently. We’ll do this as needed,” he added.

    Fed Bullard: We need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation

      St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC today, “we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. We’ve been surprised to the upside on inflation. This is a lot of inflation.”

      “Our credibility is on the line here and we do have to react to the data,” he added. “However, I do think we can do it in a way that’s organized and not disruptive to markets.” Bullard added that Fed should raise interest rate by a full percent point by July. “I think my position is a good one, and I’ll try to convince my colleagues that it’s a good one,” he said.

      Regarding the 7.5% consumer inflation rate in January, Bullard said, “my interpretation was not so much that report alone, but the last four reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy,”

      “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.”

      Fed George: We have got to get to neutral really fast

        In a WSJ interview, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that with inflation at at 7.5% in January, and the benchmark interest a rate near zero, Fed’s policy is “out of sync”. But she said it’s too soon to say if Fed should hike by 50bps in March. She also hasn’t form a view on how much interest rate has to go up this year.

        “What we have to do is be systematic,” George said. “It is always preferable to go gradual…Given where we are, the uncertainties around the pandemic effects and other things, I’d be hard-pressed to say we have got to get to neutral really fast.”

        “If we get to March and the data says we should be talking about that [a half-point rate increase], I’m sure that will be in play, but I’m not sure that is the answer, per se, to how we get there,” George added.

        She also dismissed the idea of holding an emergency FOMC meeting to raise interest rate. “I don’t know that I’d call the markets reacting to data an emergency here, because frankly, in my own forecast of looking where inflation was moving, the print was not a surprise,” she said.

        Nikkei lost -2.2% on risk aversion, heading back to 26k first

          Markets are generally staying in risk-off mode today as there is no sign of de-escalation in Russia-Ukraine situation. Nikkei tumbled sharply by -616.49 pts, or -2.23%, to close at 27079.59.

          Near term bearishness in Nikkei remains after rejection by 55 day EMA. The choppy decline from 30795.77 is in progress for retesting 26044.52 low. But, the major line of defense is at 38.2% retracement of 16358.9 to 30795.77 at 25280.61. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound.

          However, the rejection by 55 week EMA is also a medium term bearish sign, which argues that the fall from 30795.77, as a correction to the up trend from 16358.19, might last longer than originally expected. Indeed, sustained break of 25280.61 could send Nikkei further to the zone between 50% retracement at 23576.98 and 61.8% retracement at 21873.34 before bottoming.

          New Zealand BNZ services dropped to 45.9, lowest since Oct

            New Zealand BusinssNZ Performance of Services index dropped -3.9 to 45.9 in January. That was the lowest result since October 2021. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped sharply from 50.7 to 44.1. Employment ticked down from 49.1 to 48.1. New orders/businesses dropped deeply from 52.0 to 41.8. Stocks/inventories dropped from 51.0 to 47.6. Supplier deliveries also tumbled from 49.8 to 43.6.

            BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “the PSI can jag around quite a lot from month to month – upwards and downwards. However, it’s also worth pointing out that the long-term average of the PSI is 53.6, which is starting to feel some distance away. So much for the new traffic light system releasing the brakes on activity.”

            Full release here.

            ECB Rehn: Better to look beyond short-term inflation

              ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Saturday, “If we reacted strongly to inflation in the short term, we would probably cause economic growth to stop. It’s better to look beyond short-term inflation and look at what inflation is in 2023, 2024.” He expected inflation to be close to the 2% target in the coming years.

              “We will have time to react in the March meeting and in later meetings if it looks like the situation is markedly different than it now appears,” Rehn added.

              Another Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said, “the monetary policy stance remains expansionary, though the gradual normalization will continue at a pace consistent with the economic recovery and changes in the outlook for prices.”

              “I do not believe that the overall picture underlying this stance has changed significantly,” Visco said. Still, “in the short term, there has been an increase in the risk of consumer prices growing faster than expected and production activity growing more slowly.”

              Fed Daly prefers measured approach after March hike

                San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CBS on Sunday, “it is obvious that we need to pull some of the accommodation out of the economy”. However, “history tells us with Fed policy that abrupt and aggressive action can actually have a destabilizing effect on the very growth and price stability that we’re trying to achieve,” she warned.

                “What I would favor is moving in March and then watching, measuring, being very careful about what we see ahead of us — and then taking the next interest rate increase when it seems the best place to do that. And that could be in the next meeting or it could be a meeting away,” Daly said.

                NIESR forecasts 1.0% growth in UK GDP in Q1

                  NIESR forecast growth of 1.0% in UK GDP in Q1. It said that economic impact of Omicron was “far smaller than” previous two waves. The -0.2% fall in December GDP was also better than consensus forecasts, suggesting the “possibility of a positive reading in January.

                  “The economic impact of Omicron was far smaller than that of either of the two previous major waves of Covid-19: a mere 0.2 per cent fall in December was even stronger than consensus forecasts, but in line with NIESR’s January GDP tracker, suggesting the possibility of a positive reading in January. Unsurprisingly, retail and hospitality contributed the most to December’s fall, with the healthcare sector providing the largest positive contribution.” – Rory Macqueen Principal Economist, NIESR

                  Full release here.

                  DIHK downgrades Germany growth forecasts to 3.0% in 2022

                    Germany’s Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK)  lowed 2022 growth forecasts from 3.6% to 3.0%. That is, the economy will probably not reach the pre-crisis level until middle of the year.

                    “The economy is holding its breath. There is still a cautiously optimistic mood in the companies. However, many do not know how things will continue due to great uncertainty,” said DIHK Managing Director Martin Wansleben.

                    “In addition to the Corona crisis and delivery bottlenecks, the biggest stress factors are above all the sharp rise in energy and raw material prices and the shortage of skilled workers. In addition, there are further expected cost increases due to the transformation in climate protection. It is still an open question, especially for companies that are in international competition how such a compensation should work. Many fear a deterioration of their position on the world markets.”

                    Full release here.

                    UK GDP contracted -0.2% mom in Dec, up 1.0% qoq in Q4

                      UK GDP contracted -0.2% mom in December, better than expectation of -0.5% mom. Services output dropped -0.5% mom. Production rose 0.3% mom while construction rose 2.0% mom. Services and construction were both above pre-coronavirus levels, by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, but production remained -2.6% below.

                      Q4 GDP grew 1.0% qoq, slightly below expectation of 1.0% qoq. The level of GDP in Q4 remained below -0.4% below its pre-coronavirus level in Q4 2019. Nevertheless, monthly GDP was already at its pre-coronavirus level in February 2020.

                      Full GDP release here.

                      Also published, manufacturing production rose 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy in December versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.7% yoy. Industrial production rose 0.3% mom, 0.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 0.6% yoy. Goods trade surplus came in at GBP -12.4B, versus expectation of GBP -13.0B.

                      RBNZ survey: Another rate hike expected in Q1, 4-5 hikes in a year

                        In the latest Survey of Expectations of RBNZ, OCR expectations continued to rise in the short, medium and long term. OCR is expected to rise from current 0.75% to 1.05% by the end of Q1. Mean estimate for OCR for one year ahead was 2.11%, indicating four to five 25bps hikes. Mean two-year ahead OCR expectations were at 2.47%

                        One-year inflation expectations rose from 3.70% to 4.4%, highest since November 1900. Two-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.96% to 3.27%, highest since 1991. Five-year inflation expectations also rose slightly from 2.17% to 2.30%, highest since 20-17.

                        Full release here.

                        RBA Lowe: We have scope to wait and see

                          RBA Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary committee that it is “too early” to conclude that inflation is “sustainably in the target range”. He added, “in underlying terms, inflation has just reached the midpoint of the target band for the first time in over seven years”.

                          The board is “prepared to be patient” and “we have scope to wait and see how the data develop and how some of the uncertainties are resolved. Countries with higher inflation rates have less scope here.”

                          Full statement here.

                          Fed Bullard wants to be nimble on rates, but Daly and Barkin may not

                            St Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday’s inflation report “shows continued inflationary pressure in the US” and is “concerning for me and for the Fed.” He added, “you have got the highest inflation in 40 years and I think we are going to have to be far more nimble and far more reactive to data.”

                            “I’d like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1,” Bullard added. “I was already more hawkish but I have pulled up dramatically what I think the committee should do.”

                            However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a half-point rate hike “is not my preference. “”Markets have already priced in the withdrawal of accommodation, and that is them hearing what the Fed is clearly communicating.”

                            Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “I’m open to it conceptually”, regarding a half point hike. “Do I think there’s a screaming need to do it right now? I’d have to be convinced of that,” he added.

                            ECB Lagarde: We don’t want to choke off the recovery

                              ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that raising interest rates “would not solve any of the current problems.” Instead, “if we acted too hastily now, the recovery of our economies could be considerably weaker and jobs would be jeopardized.”

                              “The U.S. economy is overheated, whereas our economy is far from being that,” she said. “That’s why we can — and must — proceed more cautiously. We don’t want to choke off the recovery.”

                              “Inflation may turn out to be higher than we projected in December,” Lagarde said. “We will analyze that in March, and then take it from there.” She also noted that inflation would exceed 2% target in medium term only if wages were to “significantly and persistently” break that level. “We are not seeing that at the moment at all,” she said. “In most euro-area countries, including Germany, wage demands are very moderate.”

                              US CPI rose to 7.5% yoy, core CPI to 6.0% yoy, highest since 1982

                                Over the month, US CPI rose 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom. CPI core rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom.

                                Over the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 7.0% yoy to 7.5% yoy, above expectation of 7.3% yoy. That’s the highest level since February 1982. CPI core jumped from 5.5% yoy to 6.0% yoy, above expectation of 5.9% yoy. That’s the highest level since August 1982.

                                Energy index rose 27.0% yoy while food index rose 7.0% yoy.

                                Full release here.

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 223k

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 223k in the week ending February 5, better than expectation of 230k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -2k to 253k.

                                  Continuing claims was unchanged at 1621k in the week ending January 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 16.5k to 1645k.

                                  Full release here.

                                  ECB Lane: Hold-steady approach reinforced if bottlenecks are primarily external in nature

                                    ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a blog post, “in terms of inflation dynamics, the relative price dislocations associated with bottlenecks are intrinsically short-term rather than permanent in nature.” Further, “initial increases in relative prices of categories that experienced high demand and/or low supply can be expected to level off or even reverse.”

                                    Additionally, “it should be acknowledged that bottlenecks are not the only factor influencing the overall inflation environment, with a comprehensive monetary policy assessment taking into account a wide range of factors.”

                                    “Since bottlenecks will eventually be resolved, price pressures should abate and inflation return to its trend without a need for a significant adjustment in monetary policy.”

                                    “The logic underpinning a hold-steady approach to monetary policy is reinforced if the bottlenecks are primarily external in nature, caused by global disruptions in supply or a surge in global demand”.

                                    Full blog post here.

                                    ECB de Guindos: Inflation to decline in the course of this year

                                      ECB Vice President  Luis de Guindos said in a speech, “inflation is likely to remain elevated for longer than previously expected, but to decline in the course of this year.”

                                      “That is the central case, but there are upside risks to that outlook,” he added. “Inflation could turn out to be higher if price pressures feed through into higher-than-anticipated wage rises, or if the economy returns to full capacity more quickly than foreseen.

                                      “Some other central banks have either already raised rates or indicated that they will soon do so,” he said. “In making comparisons, it’s worth remembering that the euro area is at a different stage of the economic cycle, just as it was when the pandemic started. So it’s natural that central banks around the globe won’t necessarily start raising rates at the same time.”

                                      Full speech here.

                                      EU downgrades 2022 Eurozone GDP forecasts, upgrades inflation

                                        In the Winter 2022 interim forecasts, EU downgrades 2022 Eurozone GDP growth forecasts from 4.3% to 4.0%. Nevertheless, 2023 GDP growth forecast was upgraded from 2.4% to 2.7%. Eurozone 2022 HICP inflation forecast was raised from 2.2% to 3.5%. 2023 HICP inflation forecast was also upgraded from 1.4% to 1.7%.

                                        Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People said: “The EU economy has now regained all the ground it lost during the height of the crisis, thanks to successful vaccination campaigns and coordinated economic policy support. Unemployment has reached a record low. These are major achievements. As the pandemic is still ongoing, our immediate challenge is to keep the recovery well on track. The significant rise in inflation and energy prices, along with supply chain and labour market bottlenecks, are holding back growth. Looking ahead, however, we expect to switch back into high gear later this year as some of these bottlenecks ease. The EU’s fundamentals remain strong and will be boosted further as countries start to put their Recovery and Resilience Plans into full effect.”

                                        Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy said: “Multiple headwinds have chilled Europe’s economy this winter: the swift spread of Omicron, a further rise in inflation driven by soaring energy prices and persistent supply-chain disruptions. With these headwinds expected to fade progressively, we project growth to pick up speed again already this spring. Price pressures are likely to remain strong until the summer, after which inflation is projected to decline as growth in energy prices moderates and supply bottlenecks ease. However, uncertainty and risks remain high.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ Kuroda: No chance to debate stimulus exit in my term

                                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was quoted by Mainichi newspaper saying that “as long as our current price projection lives, there’s no chance we will debate” stimulus exit before his term ends in April 2023. “We’re not engaging in any debate of an exit. Doing so is inappropriate given Japan’s price developments,” he added.

                                          “Japan’s economic recovery is slower than that of the United States and European countries, and (consumer) inflation is just 0.5%,” Kuroda said. “As such, there’s no need to scale back monetary stimulus or shift toward policy tightening. Doing so is unlikely,”

                                          The change of consumer inflation accelerating sharply was “very small” and “the key would be wage growth”.