Fed Bostic: 50bps hike in March not my preferred action

    Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said, 50bps hike in March was “not my preferred policy action.” He added, “I had three rate increases in mind. March is looking like the right time” to get that started. From there, however, “we are not on any set progression.”

    “We are going to need to be thinking very carefully about how things are going, how the economy responds to our first moves,” Bostic said. “We are not set on any particular trajectory. The data will tell us what is happening.”

    Fed Daly: We definitely are poised for a March increase

      San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said “we definitely are poised for a March increase.” But she added, “after that, I want to see what the data brings us … let’s get through Omicron, let’s look at this and let’s see.”

      “If the economy progresses like I see it progressing, then it is clear that it can stand on its own two feet, that we do not need to be providing the same level of extraordinary … accommodation that we provided during the pandemic and have provided for the last two years,” Daly said.

      Fed George: Appropriate to move earlier on the balance sheet

        Kansas City Fed President Esther George said Fed’s policy normalization approach could be more aggressive on balance sheet reduction, rather than faster rate hikes.

        “What we do on the balance sheet is likely to affect the path of policy rates and vice versa,” George said during an event “For example, if we took more aggressive action on lowering, pulling down that balance sheet, it might allow for fewer interest rate increases.”

        He added that raising short-term interest rate while maintaining a large balance sheet “could flatten the yield curve”, and lead to “reach-for-yield behavior from long-duration investors.”

        “All in all, it could be appropriate to move earlier on the balance sheet relative to the last tightening cycle,” she said.

        AUD/NZD resumes rally as RBA awaited, some previews

          AUD/NZD rises sharply today as markets await RBA rate decision in the upcoming Asian session. Given the surprise drop in unemployment and strong inflation data, RBA is likely to just wrap up the QE program, rather than winding it down to end in May. That would also give the central bank some flexibility to raise interest rate to combat inflation. The question is how RBA would shape market expectation on the timing of the rate hike, or leave it to the Statement on Monetary Policy to be released later in the week. There is prospect of more upside in Aussie in crosses in RBA delivers something more hawkish than expected.

          AUD/NZD’s is now extending the whole rise from 1.0278. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.0278 to 1.0610 from 1.0314 at 1.0851. A bullish scenario is that corrective fall from 1.1042 has completed with three waves at 1.0278 and rise from 0.9992 is ready to resume. The reaction to 1.0944 resistance will reveal if it’s the case. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0654 support holds, in case of retreat.

          Suggested readings on RBA:

           

          Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4, EU up 0.4% qoq

            Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 0.4% qoq. EU GDP grew 0.4% qoq. The 2021 annual growth was at 5.2% based on first estimation for both Eurozone and EU.

            Among the EU Member States for which data are available, Spain (+2.0%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+1.6%) and Sweden (+1.4%). Declines were recorded in Austria (-2.2%), Germany (-0.7%) and in Latvia (-0.1%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

            Full release here.

            China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.1, straining under the triple pressures

              China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.9 to 49.1 in January. That’s the worst reading in 23 months. Also, the index slumped into negative territory for the fourth time since February 2020.

              Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “From December to January, the resurgence of Covid-19 in several regions including Xi’an and Beijing forced local governments to tighten epidemic control measures, which restricted production, transportation and sales of manufactured goods. It became more evident that China’s economy is straining under the triple pressures of contracting demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations.”

              Full release here.

              Japan industrial production dropped -1.0% mom in Dec, expected to rebound in Jan and Feb

                Japan industrial production dropped -1.0% mom in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to grow 5.2% in January and 2.2% in February.

                Retail sales grew 1.4% yoy in December, below expectation of 2.7% yoy. That’s nonetheless the third straight month of increase for sales, lifted by demand for general merchandise and food and beverages.

                Fed Bostic comfortable with 50bps or if data support

                  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an FT interview that “every option is on the table” for every FOMC meeting. “If the data say that things have evolved in a way that a 50 basis point move is required or be appropriate, then I’m going to lean into that . . . If moving in successive meetings makes sense, I’ll be comfortable with that,” he said.

                  “The reduction of accommodation should translate into tighter financial markets,” Bostic said. “The developments that we’ve seen on that front are comforting in the sense that markets are still functioning the way they’re supposed to, and they are responding to conditions in ways that are rational and appropriate.” He also supports starting the runoff of the USD 9T balance sheet “as quickly as” possible without impairing market functioning.

                  “Our policy path is not a constriction path. It’s a less accommodative path,” he said. “If we do the three [rate hikes] that I have in mind, that’ll still leave our policy in a very accommodative space. “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of constraint on growth as we remove these emergency actions.”

                  US PCE price index rose to 5.8% yoy, core PCE rose to 4.9% yoy

                    US personal income rose 0.3% mom, or USD 70.7B in December, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Spending dropped -0.6% mom, or USD -95.2B, matched expectations.

                    PCE price index accelerated slightly from 5.7% yoy to 5.8% yoy, below expectation of 6.1% yoy. Core PCE price index jumped from 4.7% yoy to 4.9% yoy, above expectation of 4.8% yoy.

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone economic sentiment indicator dropped to 112.7, EU down to 111.6

                      Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 113.8 to 112.7 in January. Industry confidence dropped from 14.6 to 13.9. Services confidence dropped from 10.9 to 9.1. Consumer confidence dropped from -8.4 to -8.5. Retail trade confidence rose from 1.1 to 3.8. Construction confidence dropped from 10.1 to 8.1. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 113.5 to 113.3.

                      EU ESI dropped from 113.0 to 111.6. EEI dropped from 113.6 to 113.1. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI rose in Germany (+0.8) and Spain (+0.6) while it worsened in Italy (-6.1), Poland (-4.2), France (-2.8) and the Netherlands (-1.3).

                      Full release here.

                      Germany GDP contracted -0.7% qoq in Q4, still -1.5% lower than pre-pandemic level

                        Germany GDP dropped -0.7% qoq in Q4, worse than expectation of -0.2% qoq. GDP was still -1.5% lower than pre-pandemic level in Q4, 2021. For whole of 2021, GDP grew 2.8%.

                        Destatis said, “after economic output grew again in the summer despite increasing supply and material bottlenecks, the recovery of the German economy was halted by the fourth corona wave and renewed tightening of corona protection measures at the end of the year.”

                        “Private consumption in particular decreased in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter, while government consumer spending increased. Construction investments fell compared to the third quarter of 2021.”

                        Full release here.

                        Swiss KOF economic barometer rose to 107.8, various subgroups developing unevenly

                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose from 107.2 to 107.8 in January, above expectation of 106.0. KOF said the “various subgroups of the barometer are developing unevenly.”

                          Outlook has improved for consumer spending and for financial and insurance service providers. The outlook also tends to brighten for the accommodation and food service activities. However, in the goods production sector (manufacturing and construction), indicators for almost all sub-​aspects of business activity are weakening, especially for profit development, production activity and capacity utilisation.

                          Full release here.

                          France GDP grew 0.7% in Q4, up 7% in 2021

                            France GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 0.5% qoq. On average over 2021, GDP increased by 7.0% after -8.0% in 2020. GDP was 0.9% above pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019. But the average level of GDP in 2021 was still -1.6% below its average level in 2019.

                            Looking at some details, final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed to +0.5 points. In particular, the growth rate of household consumption expenditure (+0.4%) was similar to that of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.5%). Contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter at -0.2 points. contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.4%).

                            Full release here.

                            Bitcoin trading sideway, risk still on the downside

                              Bitcoin stabilized after hitting 33000 and turned sideway. But risk is still staying heavily on the downside with 39636 support turned resistance intact. Current down trend from 68986 could extend with another falling leg, towards 29261 support, which is close to 30k psychological level too. We’d look for bottoming signal around there.

                              Meanwhile, on the upside, firm break of 39639 will argue that bitcoin has bottomed earlier than expected and bring rebound back towards 55 day EMA (now at 44839). Failure to defend 30k handle will indicate that the larger down trend is still in force for 100% projection of 68986 to 41908 from 52101 at 25023.

                              Gold breaks 1800, more downside ahead with Silver

                                Gold is now back below 1800 handle as fall from 1853.70 extends. The development further affirms the case that rebound from 1752.32 has completed with three waves up to 1853.70. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1821.93 minor resistance holds. Current fall from 1853.70 is see as part of the pattern from 1877.05, which is a down leg inside the medium term range pattern from 1676.65. Break of 1782.48 support will add further credence to this case, and would set the stage for deeper decline through 1752.32 low to 100% projection of 1877.05 to 1752.32 from 1853.70 at 1728.97 eventually.

                                 

                                Silver’s development is also inline with gold. Rebound from 21.39 should have completed with three waves up to 84.69. Deeper decline is expected as long as 23.55 minor resistance holds, to 21.93 support first. Such fall from 24.69 is seen as a leg inside the medium term falling wedge pattern from 30.07. Break of 24.69 would send silver through 21.39 low, to 50% retracement of 11.67 to 30.7 at 20.87 next.

                                IMF: BoJ’s commitment to prolonged monetary accommodation appropriate

                                  IMF said in a report that BoJ’s commitment to maintaining prolonged monetary accommodation remains “appropriate”. It expects that a “prolonged period of monetary policy accommodation, flexible fiscal policy, and inclusive growth-oriented reforms will be required to durably lift inflation expectations and inflation to the target.”

                                  Further measures could be considered for making monetary support “more sustainable”. On option could be to “steepen the yield curve by shifting the yield target from the 10-year to a shorter maturity”. This could help “mitigate the impact of prolonged monetary accommodation on financial institutions’ profitability”. If underlying inflation momentum remains weak, “cutting the policy rate should be the first option”.

                                  Full report here.

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 260k, matched expectations

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped -30k to 260k in the week ending January 22, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 15k to 247k.

                                    Continuing claims rose 51k to 1675k in the week ending January 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -11k to 1652k, lowest since August 18, 1973.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US durable goods orders dropped -0.9% mom in Dec, led by transportation equipment

                                      US durable goods orders dropped -0.9% mom, or USD -2.4B to USD 267.6B in December, worse than expectation of -0.5%. Ex-transport orders rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.1%. Transportation equipment dropped USD -3.3B, or -3.9% mom to USD -80.1B.

                                      Full release here.

                                      US GDP grew 6.9% annualized in Q4, well above expectations

                                        US GDP grew at 6.9% annualized rate in Q4, faster than Q3’s 2.3%, well above expectation of 5.6%. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

                                        For 2021 as a whole, real GDP grew 5.8% The increase in real GDP in 2021 reflected increases in all major subcomponents, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports increased.

                                        Full release here.

                                        EUR/USD downside breakout, how bearish is the long term outlook?

                                          EUR/USD finally breaks out to the downside and falls to the lowest level since June 2020. Near term outlook is staying bearish and next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1185 from 1.1482 at 1.1035.

                                          The biggest question is indeed in the long term picture. As seen in the monthly chart, an interpretation is that price actions from 1.0339 (2017 low) are a three wave consolidation pattern that has completed at 1.2348, after double rejections by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516. If that’s the case, a break through 1.0339 low would be eventually be seen.

                                          Of course, it’s still a bit early to tell if the above bearish case is true. And that is unlikely to be revealed soon, at least not by first half of the year. But it’s something that is worth noting.