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Australia CPI surged to 3.5% yoy in Q4, trimmed mean CPI at 7-yr high

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    ActionForex
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    Australia CPI rose 1.3% qoq, 3.5% yoy in Q4, well above expectation of 1.0% qoq, 3.2% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 1.0% qoq, 2.6% yoy, also above expectation of 0.7% qoq, 2.4% yoy. The 2.6% yoy rise was the highest since June 2014.

    Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Michelle Marquardt, said the most significant price rises in the December quarter were new dwellings (+4.2%) and automotive fuel (+6.6%).

    Marquardt said: “Annual trimmed mean inflation is the highest since 2014, reflecting the broad-based nature of price increases, particularly for goods.”

    Full release here.

    BoJ Kuroda keeps an eye on inflation risks while maintaining ultra-easy policy

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      ActionForex
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      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today, “the BOJ will continue its ultra-easy policy so improvements in corporate profits and the economy prop up wages and gradually accelerate consumer inflation.”

      “We remain vigilant to the risk prices may shoot up before wages begin to rise, or how (rising raw material costs) could hurt smaller firms. We must keep an eye out on these risks, while maintaining our current easy monetary policy,” Kuroda said.

      Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, “it’s desirable to create an environment in which companies can pass on rising costs and raise wages, so that increasing consumption spurs economic growth and inflation.”

      US PMI composite tumbled to 50.8, 18-month low

        By
        ActionForex
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        US PMI Manufacturing dropped from 57.7 to 55.0 in January, a 15-month low. PMI Services dropped from 57.6 to 50.9, an 18-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 57.0 to 50.8, also an 18-month low.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Soaring virus cases have brought the US economy to a near standstill at the start of the year, with businesses disrupted by worsening supply chain delays and staff shortages, with new restrictions to control the spread of Omicron adding to firms’ headwinds.

        “However, output has been affected by Omicron much more than demand, with robust growth of new business inflows hinting that growth will pick up again once restrictions are relaxed. Furthermore, although supply chain delays continued to prove a persistent drag on the pace of economic growth, linked to port congestion and shipping shortages, the overall rate of supply chain deterioration has eased compared to that seen throughout much of the second half of last year. This has in turn helped lift manufacturing optimism about the year ahead to the highest for over a year, and has also helped bring the rate of raw material price inflation down sharply. Thus, despite the survey signalling a disappointing start to the year, there are some encouraging signals for the near-term outlook ”

        Full release here.

        Ethereum heading to 2k, Bitcoin to 30k

          By
          ActionForex
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          The massacre of cryptocurrencies continues today as Ethereum resumes recent steep fall and hit as low as 2198.70 so far. The fall from 4863.75 is still in progress to 161.8% projection 4863.75 to 3439.00 from 4126.20 at 1820.95, which is below 2000 and above 1715.62 low. Considering deeply oversold condition in daily RSI, some support should be seen below 2000 to bring an overdue rebound. But in any case, break of 2927.20 support turned resistance is needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, risk will still stay on the downside.

          Bitcoin also drops to as low as 33019 so far. Daily RSI is deeply oversold while BTC is close to 29261 support. There should be signs of bottoming ahead. But still, break of 39636 support turned resistance is needed to indicate bottoming, or risk will stay heavily on the downside. The more bearish scenario is not favored yet, but bitcoin could extend the down trend from 68986 to 100% projection at 25023 if it couldn’t defend 30k handle.

          Sterling on verge of breakdown: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF

            By
            ActionForex
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            Sterling is on the verge of breaking down as risk-off sentiment intensifies into European session. EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8377 resistance now suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 0.8304 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of a key long term support level 0.8276 (2019 low). It’s way too early say that EUR/GBP is staging a bullish trend reversal. But at least, there is room for more rise back to 55 day EMA (now at 0.8423).

            GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3748 accelerates down today. Break of 1.3489 support, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 1.3504) will indicate that rebound from 1.358 has completed at 1.3748. That would also argue that whole decline from 1.4248 is not complete. Or at least, GBP/USD could extend lower to have a retest on 1.3158 low.

            GBP/CHF is also accelerating downwards. Fall from 1.2606 is seen as a falling leg in the whole pattern from 1.3070. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2427 support turned resistance holds. GBP/CHF should be heading to 1.2134 support and beyond.

            Bundesbank: Germany inflation to remain extraordinarily high at 2022 beginning

              By
              ActionForex
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              Bundesbank said in the monthly report that Germany’s real GDP grew by 2.7% in 2021, not enough to compensate the -4.50% contraction in 2020. It added, “setbacks caused by the pandemic and bottlenecks on the supply side dampened the recovery in the past year.”

              Overall, prices was at an above-average rate of 3.2% in 2021. The factors driving up inflation are “also having an effect into the new year.” Bundesbank added, “the rate at the beginning of 2022 is likely to remain extraordinarily high….In addition, due to the significant rise in market quotations for natural gas, the corresponding end customer tariffs will be raised significantly.”

              Full release here.

              UK PMIs: Consumer facing businesses hit hard, but others encouragingly robust

                By
                ActionForex
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                UK PMI manufacturing dropped form 57.9 to 56.9 in January, below expectation of 57.9. PMI Services ticked down from 53.6 to 53.3, well below expectation of 55.0. PMI Composite dropped from 53.6 to 53.4. All three indexes were at their 11-month low.

                Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “A resilient rate of economic growth in the UK during January masks wide variations across different sectors. Consumer-facing businesses have been hit hard by Omicron and manufactures have reported a further worrying weakening of order book growth, but other business sectors have remained encouragingly robust.”

                Full release here.

                Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 11-mth low at 52.4

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose from 58.0 to 59.0 in January, above expectation of 57.5, a 5-month high. PMI Services dropped from 53.1 to 51.2, below expectation of 52.2, 1 9-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 53.3 to 52.4, a 11-month low.

                  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The Omicron wave has led to yet another steep drop in spending on many consumer-facing services at the start of the year, with tourism, travel and recreation especially hard hit. However, so far the overall impact on the wider economy appears relatively muted, and most encouraging is the further easing of manufacturing supply chain delays despite the renewed virus wave. Not only has the alleviating supply crunch helped factories boost production, but cost pressures in manufacturing have also moderated.

                  Full release here.

                  Germany PMI composite jumped to 54.3, surprisingly resilient performance

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Germany PMI Manufacturing rose from 57.4 to 60.5 in January, above expectation of 57.0, a 5-month high. PMI Services also rose from 48.7 to 52.2, above expectation of 48.0. PMI Composite rose form 49.9 to 54.3, a 4-month high.

                    Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director, at IHS Markit said: “January’s flash PMI numbers came in comfortably above consensus to show a surprisingly resilient performance from the German economy at the start of the year… Manufacturing is expected to stage a recovery in 2022 as supply bottlenecks ease… January’s services numbers, showing activity recovering slightly after the decline at the end of last year, were another positive surprise… Still, rising costs remain a concern for businesses, with the survey data showing that input prices are continuing to rise sharply and on multiple fronts.”

                    Full release here.

                    France PMI composite dropped to 52.7, a 9-month low

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      France PMI Manufacturing ticked down from 55.6 to 55.5 in January, matched expectations. PMI Services dropped notably from 57.0 to 53.1, below expectation of 55.3, a 9-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 55.8 to 52.7, a 9-month low too.

                      Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: “Given the surging number of daily COVID-19 cases we’ve seen in France, it’s no surprise to see softer PMI numbers in January…. Supply chain issues continue to impact the economy, particularly manufacturers, but we do appear to have seen the worst as delivery times lengthened to a far weaker extent than seen during much of 2021. That being said, the inflationary side effects remain in play and are being exacerbated by rising staff costs and energy prices.”

                      Full release here.

                      Japan PMI manufacturing ticked up to 54.6, services tumbled to 46.6

                        By
                        ActionForex
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                        Japan PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 54.3 to 54.6 in January, below expectation of 55.0. PMI Services dropped sharply from 52.1 to 46.6. PMI Composite also dropped from 52.5 to 48.8.

                        Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Flash PMI data indicated that activity at Japanese private sector businesses dipped into contraction territory for the first time in four months at the start of 2022. The pace of decline was modest, and led by the sharpest fall in services activity since August, while manufacturers commented on a slight quickening in output growth.”

                        Full release here.

                        Australia PMI composite dropped to 45.3, slipped from strong recovery to contraction

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Australia PMI Manufacturing dropped from 57.7 to 55.3 in January. PMI Services tumbled sharply from 55.1 to 45.0. PMI Composite also dropped from 54.9 to 45.3, first contraction follow three months of growth. All are at their 5-month low.

                          Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said: “The Australian economy had slipped from a state of strong recovery in end-2021 to being affected by the surge in COVID-19 infections at the start of 2022… Supply issues meanwhile remained prevalent… This had led to input price inflation worsening Employment levels were unchanged.”

                          Full release here.

                          ECB Rehn: Economic data to remain good despite Omicron

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said over the weekend, “personally, I expect the economic data to remain relatively good despite being affected by the Omicron variant.” He added that rate hikes in 2023 would be a logical step if there are no new economic shocks.

                            He added upward pressure on inflation will subside over the course of the year. Inflation is expected to hover around ECB’s target of 2% in the next two years.

                            Canada retail sales rose 0.7% mom in Nov, to drop -2.1% mom in Dec

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Canada retail sales rose 0.7% mom to CAD 58.1B in November, below expectation of 1.0% mom. The increase was led by higher sales at gasoline stations (+4.9%), building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+3.0%) and food and beverage stores (+1.0%).

                              Sales increased in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 63.8% of retail trade. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers—increased 0.5%.

                              According to advance estimate, sales decreased -2.1% mom in December.

                              Full release here.

                              UK retail sales dropped -3.7% mom in Dec, well below expectations

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                UK retail sales dropped sharply by -3.7% mom in December, much worse than expectation of -0.6% mom decline. Overall retail sales volume was still 2.6% higher than their pre-coronavirus February 2020 levels. For the year, sales volume dropped -0.9% yoy, below expectation of 4.2% yoy. Between 2020 and 2021, volume of retail sales rose by 5.1%, which is the strongest since 2004.

                                Full release here.

                                Bitcoin breaks 40k, Ethereum breaks 3k, as selloff resumes

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Bitcoin breaks down through 39636 temporary support today, after another rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA. Down trend from 68986 resumes and should now target 61.8% projection of 68986 to 41908 from 52101 at 35366. For now, such decline is seen as part of a long term range pattern between 29261 and 68986 only. Hence, momentum to start to diminish below 35366, and a bottom should be formed above 29261 low. Nevertheless, break of 44448 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming, or risk will stay heavily on the downside.

                                   

                                  Ethereum also resumes recent fall from 4863.75 by breaking through 2927.20 today. Next target is 100% projection of 4863.75 to 3439.00 from 4126.20 at 2701.45, which is close to 2647.30 support. Downside momentum should start to diminish below this level. The question is where between 1715.62/2647.30 would ethereum forms a bottom. But in any case, break of 3411.05 is needed to indicate bottoming first, or risk will stay heavily on the downside. The fall from 4863.75 could eventually extend to 161.8% projection at 1820.95, which is close at 1715.62 low, become finishing.

                                   

                                  Japan CPI core unchanged at 0.5% yoy in Dec

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Japan CPI core (all item ex-food) was unchanged at 0.5% yoy in December, below expectation of 0.6% yoy. But that’s still the second increase in a row, and the fastest pace in nearly two years. All item CPI accelerated from 0.6% yoy to 0.8% yoy. All item ex-food, ex-energy CPI dropped from -0.6% yoy to -0.7% yoy.

                                    In the minutes of December BoJ meeting, a board member said, “we’re seeing signs of change in the price-setting behavior of Japanese firms, which had been said to be cautious about raising prices for fear of seeing sales volume fall,.”

                                    Another member noted, “it’s unlikely Japan will see wages rise as sharply as in the United States. But there’s a significant chance both economic growth and inflation could overshoot expectations,”

                                    Earlier this week, BoJ raised 2022 and 2023 core CPI projection. But it also indicated there is no rush to change the ultra-loose monetary policy.

                                    New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI rose to 53.7, return to growth

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 51.2 to 53.7 in December. Looking at some details, Production rose from 53.0 to 56.3. Employment rose from 48.5 to 52.0. New orders rose from 55.4 to 57.5. Finished stocks rose from 48.7 to 52.0. Deliveries rose from 43.9 to 50.0.

                                      BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated that “in the final quarter of 2021 the PMI averaged 53.2, indicating a return to positive manufacturing GDP growth after a sharp negative in the prior quarter.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      US jobless claims rose sharply by 55k to 286k

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        US initial jobless claims rose sharply by 55k to 286k in the week ending January 15, well above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 20k to 231k.

                                        Continuing claims rose 84k to 1635k in the week ending January 8. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -55k to 1664k, lowest since April 27, 2019.

                                        Full release here.

                                        ECB accounts: Higher for longer inflation scenario cannot be ruled out

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          In the accounts of ECB’s December 15-16 meeting, Governing Council members concurred that the “recent and projected near-term increase in inflation was driven largely by temporary factors that were expected to ease in the course of 2022. ” However, it was also “cautioned” that a “‘higher for longer’ inflation scenario could not be ruled out.”

                                          Thus, ECB should “communicate clearly that it was ready to act if price pressures proved to be more persistent and inflation failed to fall below the target as quickly as the baseline projections foresaw.” On the other hand, concerns were also expressed about “premature scaling back of monetary stimulus and asset purchases.”

                                          A “large majority” of members agreed with the policy changes, including scaling back the pace of PEPP purchases in Q1, extend the PEPP reinvestment horizon until at changes end of 2024, increase APP net purchases temporarily.

                                          But some couldn’t support the overall package on some reservations on “recalibration of APP purchases and the extension of the minimum PEPP reinvestment period, as well as the statement about flexibility in future asset purchases beyond the confines of the specific circumstances of the present pandemic.”

                                          Full meeting accounts here.

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