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Gold and Silver edged higher in weak momentum

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    Both Gold and Silver edged higher yesterday but quickly lost momentum and retreated. At this point, Gold’s rebound from 1752.32 should still extend higher as long as 1784.78 support holds. We’re seeing fall form 1877.05 as complete in 1752.43. Above 1820.02 will target 61.8% retracement of 1877.05 to 1752.32 at 1829.40 first. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 1877.05 resistance.

    Silver’s picture is similar. Fall from 25.39 should have completed at 21.39 already. Rise from 21.39 is in favor to extend higher as long as 22.17 support holds. Break of 23.42 will target 61.8% retracement of 25.39 to 21.39 at 23.86 first. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 25.39 resistance.

    CHF/JPY to break through 125.48 to resume up trend

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      Selloff in Yen gathers momentum this week on the back of risk-on sentiment. Even CHF/JPY manages to accelerate to as high as 125.37. We’re seeing the correction from 125.48 has completed at 122.10 after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Immediate focus is now on this 125.48 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 117.51 to 125.48 from 122.10 at 127.02.

      The bigger question is whether there would be more upside acceleration after breaking through 125.48. The key channel is the long term channel resistance. Sustained break there could easily send CHF/JPY to 100% projection at 130.07. And that would be a strong signal of Yen weakness elsewhere. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will just keep the selling in Yen steady.

      Bitcoin could be heading back to 45560 support

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        We’re viewing Bitcoin’s price actions from 41908 spike low as a corrective pattern. Even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be see from 53299 support turned resistance to limit upside. Indeed, break of 45560 support will argue that fall from 68986 is resuming through 41908.

        Today’s fall has pushed Bitcoin back below 50k handle and 4 hour 55 EMA. We’ll now monitor if there is more downside acceleration to push it through 45560 to trigger the above bearish case.

        WTI oil extending rally, eyeing 77.2 projection level

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Oil prices follow broad based risk-on sentiments and jumped higher this week. Investors seem to be getting Omicron worries behind, as the health impacts of infection look much milder than feared.

          With the strong break of 55 day EMA, WTI’s pull back from 85.92 has likely completed at 62.90 already. Immediate focus is now on 100% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 77.22. Firm break there could bring upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 83.86.

          For now, we’re viewing the pattern from 85.92 has a sideway corrective pattern, with range set between 61.90 and 85.92. Hence, we’d not expecting a break of 85.92 any time soon. Instead, there should at least be one more falling leg to complete the pattern. Let’s see.

          Gold pressing 1814 resistance, but losing momentum

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            Immediate focus is now on 1814.06 resistance in Gold. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 1752.32, and solidify the case that fall from 1877.05 has completed. In this case, stronger rally should be seen towards 1877.05 key structural resistance next.

            However, note that Gold is already losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour 55 EMA. Rejection by 1814.06 will bring another falling leg to extend the pattern from 1814.06. But still, further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1784.78 support holds.

            S&P 500 surged to new record, heading to 5000 and above

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              S&P 500 rose 1.38% to new record at 4791.19 overnight. The development confirmed resumption of whole up trend from 202 low at 2191.86. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 4531.10 support holds. Next medium term target is 138.2% projection of 2191.86 to 3588.11 from 3233.94 at 5163.55, which is slightly above 5000 handle. That would be a key level for S&P 500 to overcome in the early part of next year.

              Meanwhile, to solidify the case of full return of risk-on sentiment, we’d like to see NASDAQ breaking through 16212.22 high and DOW through 36565.73.

              Japan industrial production surged record 7.2% mom in Nov

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Japan industrial production rose 7.2% mom in November, well above expectation of 4.8% mom. That’s the biggest gain on record, going to back to as early as 1978. Comparing to the same month of 2020, industrial production was up 5.4% yoy.

                Based on a poll of manufacturers, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects output to advance 1.6% in December and climb 5.0% in January.

                Also released, unemployment rate edged up to 2.8% in November, from October’s 2.7%.

                Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in Oct, 0.3% mom in Nov

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in October, matched expectations. Goods-producing sector rose 1.6% mom while services-producing sector rose 0.6% mom. 17 of 20 industrial sectors posted gains.

                  According to advance information, GDP increased 0.3% in November, led by accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, construction and the arts and entertainment sectors, while the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector offset some of the gains.

                  Full release here.

                  US durable goods orders rose 2.5% in Nov, ex-transport orders up 0.8%

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    US durable goods orders rose 2.5% mom to USD 268.3B in November, above expectation of 2.5% mom. That’s also the sixth increased of the last seven months.

                    Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.8% mom, above expectation of 0.6% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.0% mom. Transportation equipment rose 6.5% mom.

                    Full release here.

                    US PCE inflation rose to 5.7% yoy, core CPI to 4.7%, highest since 80s

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      US personal income rose 0.4% mom mama, or USD 90.4B in November, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.6% mom or USD 104.7B, also matched expectations.

                      Headline PCE price index accelerated to 5.7% yoy, up from 5.1% yoy, above expectation of 5.6% yoy. That’s the highest level since 1982. Core PCE price index accelerated to 4.7% yoy, up from 4.2% yoy, above expectation of 4.5% yoy. That’s the highest level since 1989.

                      Full release here.

                      US initial jobless claims unchanged at 205k, matched expectations

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 205k in the week ending December 17, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3k to 206k.

                        Continuing claims dropped -8k to 1859k in the week ending December 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -49k to 1920k. Both are the lowest since March 14, 2020.

                        Full release here.

                        Silver extending recovery, Gold back above 1800

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Silver’s recovery continues today even though momentum remains a bit weak. A short term bottom should be formed at 21.39 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That came after defending 21.41 support. Further rise should be seen as long as 22.17 minor support holds, to 55 day EMA (now at 23.18). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed as a five-wave descending triangle. However, break of 22.17 support will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 21.39.

                          Gold also strengthens mildly today and is back above 1800 handle. But it’s still limited below 1814.06 temporary top. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1781.99 minor support holds. Break of 1814.06 will resume the rebound from 1752.32 short term bottom towards 1877.05 resistance. Firm break there will also raise that chance that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed. However, break of 1781.99 will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 1732.52.

                          Japan raises fiscal 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Japan’s government slashed the current fiscal 2021 real GDP growth forecast from 3.7%, down from 2.6% as estimated in July. However, for fiscal 2022 starting April, real GDP growth forecast was upgraded from 2.2% to 3.2%. That would be the fastest growth rate since fiscal 2020 with GDP hitting a record JPY 556.8T.

                            “The economy has shown signs of picking up, so we must ensure the current positive momentum moves to sustainable economic recovery,” a Cabinet Office official told reporters. “We have not yet reached autonomous growth but we’re making steady progress to generate a virtuous cycle of growth and wealth distribution.”

                            US consumer confidence rose to 115.8, expectations jumped

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 111.9 to 115.8 in December, above expectation of 111.1. Present Situation Index dropped from 144.4 to 144.1. Expectations Index rose from 90.2 to 96.9.

                              “Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index dipped slightly but remains very high, suggesting the economy has maintained its momentum in the final month of 2021. Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased.”

                              “Meanwhile, concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year high last month as did concerns about COVID-19, despite reports of continued price increases and the emergence of the Omicron variant. Looking ahead to 2022, both confidence and consumer spending will continue to face headwinds from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic.”

                              Full release here.

                              US Q3 GDP growth finalized at 2.3% annualized

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                US Q3 GDP growth rate was finalized at 2.3% annualized, revised up from 2.1%. The update primarily reflects upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

                                Full release here.

                                ECB Schnabel: A weak Q4 to spillover to beginning of next year

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview, “in general, I think the recovery continues”. But due to new wave of infections, “we are seeing headwinds in the short term”. ECB is looking at a “weaker fourth quarter” which is “likely to spill over to the beginning of next year”. But she expected “a strong rebound thereafter”. So, “we see the recovery as being delayed rather than derailed.”

                                  She added that the factors that pushed up inflation are “likely to either reverse or at least become less pronounced over the coming year”, including supply bottlenecks, energy prices and base effects. Inflation is going to “decline over the course of next year”, but ECB is “less certain about how fast and how strong the decline will be”.

                                  Schnabel also said ECB is taking a “step-by-step approach to normalization” of monetary policy”. The pace can be adjusted to the incoming data. And, “we need to retain optionality to make sure that we sustainably reach our 2% target.”

                                  Full interview here.

                                  UK GDP growth finalized at 1.1% qoq in Q3

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    UK Q3 GDP growth was finalized at 1.1% qoq, revised down from first estimate of 1.3% increased. The level of GDP remained -1.5% below pre-coronavirus level in Q4 2019. Net borrowing position with the rest of the world lowered to -4.3% of GDP from Q2’s -2.4%.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoJ minutes: members discussed impact of Yen’s depreciation

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      In the minutes of October 27-28 meeting, BoJ said “yen had depreciated somewhat significantly against both the U.S. dollar and the euro, mainly due to rises in U.S. and European interest rates”. Members have discussed the impact of the yen’s depreciation.

                                      Some members said, “the depreciation had positively affected Japan’s economy as a whole through an increase in profits from business conducted overseas and a rise in stock prices, although its effect of pushing up exports had declined.”

                                      One member said, “the effect of the depreciation on each economic entity was uneven, depending on industry and size”. Another member noted, “while prices had increased recently, triggered mainly by the yen’s depreciation, it was unlikely at present that heightened inflationary pressure would reduce the economic welfare of Japan as a whole.”

                                      Full minutes here.

                                       

                                      Australia Westpac leading index rose to -0.2%, Omicron not derailing recovery

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        The six month annualized growth rate in Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose from -0.5% to -0.2% in November. The index has been in negative territory for three consecutive months, partly reflecting the lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria. Nevertheless, reopening rebounds should eventually lift growth back above trend.

                                        Westpac said both itself and the RBA “currently believe that Omicron will not derail the recovery although the next month will determine the extent of the delay and uncertainty.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Canada retail sales rose 1.6% mom in Oct, to rise further 1.2% in Nov

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Canada retail sales rose 1.6% mom to CAD 57.6B in October, above expectation of 1.2% mom. Growth was led by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.2%), as new car dealer sales (+2.8%) rebounded. Sales increased in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 59.9% of retail trade. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 1.5% mom.

                                          According to advance estimate, retail sales rose 1.2% mom in November.

                                          Full release here.

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