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Japan government: economy shows movements of picking up

    By
    ActionForex
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    In the latest Monthly Economic Report, Japan’s Cabinet Office upgraded economic assessment for the first time in 17 months. It said, “the Japanese economy shows movements of picking up recently as the severe situation due to the Novel Coronavirus is gradually easing.” Back in November, it said the economy “continues to show weakness in picking up”.

    Private consumption is “picking up”, dropping “while some weakness remains”. However, business investments “appears to be pausing for picking up”. Exports are “almost flat”. Industrial production continues to appear to be “pausing for picking up”. Corporate profits are “picking up”. Employment situations shows “picking up in some components”, comparing to November’s “shows steady movement”. Consumer prices continues to “show steady movements.

    Full release here.

    AUD/CAD in rebound, but no major bottoming yet

      By
      ActionForex
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      AUD/CAD is a pair worth watching today, after having sluggish response to RBA minutes. But Canada retail sales featured today could trigger some volatility. There is prospect of major bottoming at 0.8969 considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, it’s so far staying above 55 day EMA, which is a positive sign.

      However, AUD/CAD will need to firmly take out 0.9335 resistance to indicate completion of the fall from 0.9991 high. Other wise, another fall would remain mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 0.9087 minor support will bring deeper fall to retest 0.8969 low. Break will resume the fall from 0.9991 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8058 to 0.9991 at 0.8796.

      RBA minutes laid three options on QE, patient on rates

        By
        ActionForex
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        In the minutes of December 21 meeting, RBA reiterated that decision about the bond purchases program will be made in February. The criteria to consider include “progress towards the Board’s goals for employment and inflation, the actions of other central banks and the functioning of the Australian bond market.” Information include December CPI, December and January labor market data, and overall impact of Omicron.

        Three possible options were also discussed.

        • The first option was to reduce the pace of purchases from mid February with an expectation of a likely end point in May 2022. This option is consistent with November forecasts for employment and inflation.
        • The second option was to reduce the pace of purchases and review it again in May 2022. This option is stronger if progress was slower than expected.
        • The third option was to cease purchases altogether in mid February. In case of better-than-expected progress, the third option would become more appropriate.

        Regarding interest rate, “the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.” And, “this is likely to take some time and the Board is prepared to be patient.”

        Full minutes here.

        Joachim Nagel named as new Bundesbank president

          By
          ActionForex
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          German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said said today that he and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed Joachim Nagel as the new Bundesbank President. Nagel, a former Bundesbank board member, is expected to take over on January 1 from Jens Weidmann.

          Linder said on twitter, “In view of inflation risks, the importance of a stability-oriented monetary policy is growing. He is an experienced personality who ensures the continuity of #Bundesbank”.

          “Nagel can be trusted to continue the German Bundesbank tradition in the debates in the ECB,” Friedrich Heinemann, an expert at the ZEW economic research institute hailed. “He has extensive monetary policy and financial expertise, which is essential for today’s complex monetary policy decisions.”

          WTI oil dips below 70 as Omicron spreads quickly

            By
            ActionForex
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            Oil prices dip today on concern that the rapid spread of Omicron would push more countries back into restrictions, and hurt demand at least in the near future. That’s also in-line with overall risk-off sentiment in the markets.

            WTI’s recovery from 62.90 was choked off after hitting 73.66 and it’s back below 69. For now, unless there will be any disastrous development, we’re seeing price actions from 85.92 high as development into a sideway consolidation pattern, in form a a three-wave flat, or a five-wave triangle. The range should be set inside 61.90/85.92.

            In other words, we’re not expecting a break of 61.90 support even in case of further selloff. Break of 73.66 resistance will extend the rebound from 62.90. And even in this case, we’re not expecting a break of 85.92 high too.

            New Zealand goods exports rose 13% yoy in Nov, imports rose 37% yoy

              By
              ActionForex
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              New Zealand goods exports rose 13% yoy to NZD 5.9B in November. Goods imports rose 37% yoy to NZD 6.7B. Monthly trade balance was a deficit of NZD -864m, versus expectation of NZD -1867m.

              China led rises in monthly exports across all top destinations, up 13% yoy. Exports to Australia were up 21% yoy, to USA up 5.5% yoy, to EU up 8.6% yoy, to Japan up 38% yoy.

              Imports from all tot partners were also up, with China up 45% yoy, EU up 38% yoy, Australia up 28%, USA up 43%, Japan up 7.9% yoy.

              Full release here.

              BoJ Kuroda: Too early to consider normalizing policy

                By
                ActionForex
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                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today, “there’s quite a distance from the 2% inflation target. It is still too early now to consider normalizing policy.” “Unlike the Western countries, inflation is extremely low and inflation expectations remain very low,” he added. “We’re in a phase to patiently continue large-scale monetary easing.”

                BoJ’s balance sheet has grown the equivalent of 135% of GDO . But Kuroda said “I don’t think expansion of the BoJ’s assets will affect our ability to keep monetary policy and financial system stable.” Though, he added it’s important for the government market confidence on the country’s fiscal health in the medium- to long-term.

                Eurozone CPI finalized at 4.9% in Nov, EU at 5.2%

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Eurozone CPI was finalized at 4.9% yoy in November, up from October’s 4.1%. The highest contribution came from energy (+2.57%), followed by services (+1.16%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.64%) and food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.49%).

                  EU CPI was finalized at 5.2%, up from October’s 4.4%. The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (2.4%), Portugal (2.6%) and France (3.4%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania (9.3%), Estonia (8.6%) and Hungary (7.5%). Compared with October, annual inflation remained stable in one Member State and rose in twenty-six.

                  Full release here.

                  BoE Pill: More rate hikes to come if inflation persists

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Asked on CNBC television if there would be “a lot more rate hikes to come,” if inflation remained at its current level, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill replied, “well I think that’s true.”

                    He added, “underlying, more domestically generated inflation here in the UK, probably centered around wage pressures in a tightening labour market, are going to prove more persistent through time.”

                    Germany Ifo business climate dropped to 94.7 in Dec, sentiment clouded over for Christmas

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped from 96.6 to 94.7 in December, below expectation of 95.4. Current Assessment index dropped from 99.0 to 96.9, below expectation of 97.5. Expectations index dropped from 94.2 to 92.6, below expectation of 93.3. Looking at some more details, manufacturing rose from 16.7 to 17.3. Services dropped from 11.6 to 4.5. Trade dropped from 2.7 to -4.1. Construction dropped from 11.7 to 7.4.

                      Ifo said: “Sentiment at German companies has clouded over for Christmas. The deteriorating pandemic situation is hitting consumer-related service providers and retailers hard. The ifo Business Climate Index fell from 96.6 points  in November to 94.7 points in December. Companies assessed their current business situation as less positive. Pessimism regarding the first half of 2022 also increased. The German economy isn’t getting any presents this year.”

                      Full release here.

                      UK retail sales rose 1.4% mom in Nov, ex-fuel sales rose 1.1% mom

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        UK retail sales rose 1.4% mom in November, above expectation of 0.8% mom. Sales were 7.2% higher than their pre-coronavirus February 2020 levels. Ex-automotive fuel sales rose 1.1% mom. For the 12 month period, headline sales rose 4.7% yoy while ex-automotive fuel sales rose 2.7% yoy.

                        Over the three months to November 2021, however, sales fell by -0.6% when compared with the previous three months.

                        Full release here.

                        BoJ keeps interest rates unchanged, scales back emergency funding

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Under the yield curve control, BoJ kept short-term policy interest rate unchanged at -0.10%, and 10-year JGB target at around 0% without upper limit to purchases. It will continue to buy ETFs and J-REITs with upper limits of JPY 12T and JPY 180B respectively on annual paces.

                          The Special Program to Support Financing in Response to the Novel Coronavirus is extended in part by six months until the end of September 2022. The additional purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds will be complete at the end of March 2022 as scheduled with outstanding amounts gradually drop back to pre-pandemic levels.

                          BoJ said, “Japan’s economy is projected to continue growing at a pace, albeit slower, above its potential growth rate.” Core CPI is “likely to increase moderately in positive territory in the short run,” and “projected to increase gradually as a trend”.

                          The course of COVID-19 continues to warrant attention”. There are “high uncertainties over whether the resumption of economic activity can progress smoothly”. Attentions should also be paid to risk that “effects of supply-side constraints seen in some areas will be amplified or prolonged.”

                          Full statement here.

                          UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped to -14, slightly depressed end of year

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped from -14 to -15 in December. Personal financial situation over the next 12 months dropped from 2 to 1. General economic situation over the next 12 months dropped from -23 to -24. Major purchase index also dropped from -3 to -6.

                            Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says: “News about the Omicron variant could not have arrived at a worse time for festive celebrations… We end 2021 on a slightly depressed note and it looks like it will be a bleak midwinter for UK consumer confidence possibly with new COVID curbs and little likelihood of any real uplift in the first months of 2022.”

                            Full release here.

                            New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -23.2, inflation expectations rose further

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped further to -23.2 in December, down from November’s -16.4. Own activity outlook dropped from 15.0 to 11.8. Export intentions dropped from 9.5 to 8.8. Investment intentions dropped from 16.3 to 11.4. Employment intentions dropped from 15.8 to 10.5. Pricing intentions dropped from 66.5 to 63.6. Inflation expectations rose further from 4.24% to 4.42%.

                              ANZ said: “Unfortunately the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over 2022 is not a great deal smaller, nor fluffier… Labour shortages and cost pressures rank high in firms’ list of concerns, and freight disruptions are getting worse… But having trouble meeting demand is probably a better problem to have than not having enough demand.

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims rose back to 204k, continuing claims dropped to 1.85m

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                US initial jobless claims rose 18k to 206k in the week ending December 11, above expectation of 192k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -16k to 204k, lowest level since November 15, 1969.

                                Continuing claims dropped -154k to 1845k in the week ending December 4, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -66k to 1963k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                                Full release here.

                                ECB press conference live stream

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
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                                  ECB to end net PEPP purchases in March, temporarily raise APP purchases in Q2 and Q3

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    ECB announced to “discontinue”net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022. Reinvestment horizon for PEPP will be extended until at least the end of 2024.

                                    Monthly net asset purchases under the original asset purchase programme (APP) will be doubled to EUR 40B in Q2, then slow to EUR 30B in Q3, and back to EUR 20B in Q4 for “as long as necessary”.

                                    Meanwhile, main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate and deposit facility rate were held unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25%, and -0.50% respectively. Forward guidance is maintained that there will be a “transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.”

                                    Full statement here.

                                    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY solidifying near term reversal after BoE hike

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Sterling rises sharply after surprised BoE rate hike. GBP/USD’s break of 1.3351 support turned resistance confirms short term bottoming at 1.3158. More importantly, it’s the first sign that corrective fall from 1.4248 has completed at 1.3158 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (1.3453) will affirm this bullish case.

                                      Similarly, GBP/JPY’s break of 152.35 support turned resistance argues that correction from 158.19 has completed at 148.94, after defending 148.93 support. Further rise would be seen to 154.70 resistance. Break there will pave the way to retest 158.19 high.

                                      BoE hikes to 0.25%, some modest tightening still needed

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        BoE decided to raise the Bank Rate by 0.15 bps to 0.25%, with 8-1 vote. Silvana Tenreyro was the only MPC member voted for no change. The MPC also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of government bond purchases at GBP 875B, and corporate bond purchases at GBP 20B.

                                        The central bank said it will review developments, including the impact of Omicron, in the February Monetary Policy Report, with focus on medium term prospects for inflation. There are “two-sided risks around inflation outlook in the medium term”. But, “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary to meet the 2% inflation target sustainably”.

                                        Full statement here.

                                        UK PMI composite dropped to 53.2, hit once again by COVID-19

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          UK PMI Manufacturing dropped from 58.1 to 57.6 in December, matched expectations. PMI Services dropped sharply from 58.5 to 53.2, well below expectation of 57.5, a 10-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 57.6 to 53.2, also a 10-month low.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The flash PMI data show the UK economy being hit once again by COVID-19, with growth slowing sharply at the end of the year led by a steep drop in spending on services by households. Some brighter news came through from manufacturing, where an easing of supply chain delays helped lift production growth, but more importantly also helped take some upward pressure off prices to hint at a peaking of inflation.”

                                          Full release here.

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