Fed Daly: Might need to start crafting a plan on rate hike

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “if we didn’t have higher inflation readings, you might let the economy go a little bit more to see if we can get through COVID and have those individuals come back.”

    However, “right now, we’re dealing with inflation that’s above our target and inconsistent in its current readings with our longer run views on price stability,” she added. “We have to deal with that.”

    Fed might need to start dialing down some of the extra policy accommodation and “start crafting a plan to, at least, you know, think about raising the interest rate,” she said.

    Fed Bostic: Finishing tapering before end of Q1 is in our interest

      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that with robust growth, an improving job market and inflation more than twice Fed target, having tapering finished “some time before the end of the first quarter” would be “in our interest”.

      Bostic also referred to OECD’s projection that inflation in the US could be above 4% for the year of 2022. He said, “if it is at that kind of level, I think there is going to be a good case to be made that we should be pulling forward more interest-rate increases and perhaps do even more than the one I have penciled in.”

      US initial jobless claims rose to 222k, continuing claims dropped to 1.96m

        US initial jobless claims rose 28k to 222k in the week ending November 27, better than expectation of 250k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -12k to 239k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

        Continuing claims dropped -107k to 1956k in the week ending November 20, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -36k to 2084k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

        Full release here.

        Eurozone PPI at 5.4% mom, 21.9% yoy in October, well above expectations

          Eurozone PPI came in at 5.4% mom, 21.9% yoy in October, well above expectation of 3.2% mom, 19.0% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 16.8% mom in the energy sector, by 1.4% mom for intermediate goods, by 0.5% mom for durable and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% mom for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.8% mom.

          EU PPI rose 5.0% mom, 21.7% yoy. The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (+11.2%), Italy (+9.4%) and Romania (+8.6%), while the only decreases were observed in Estonia (-2.1%), Luxembourg (-0.3%) and Sweden (-0.2%).

          Full release here.

          Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% in Oct, EU unchanged at 6.7%

            Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% in October, down from 7.4%, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%.

            Eurostat estimates that 14.312 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.045 million in Eurozone, were unemployed in October 2021.

            Full release here.

            Australia trade surplus narrowed to AUD 11.22B in Oct

              Australia exports of goods and services dropped -3% mom to AUD 43.05B in October, driven by falls in iron ore prices. Goods and services imports dropped -3% mom to AUD 31.83B, by fall in imports of capital goods. Trade surplus narrowed to AUD 11.22B, slightly higher than expectation of AUD 11.00B.

              Retail sales rose 4.9% mom, 5.9% yoy to AUD 31.13B.

              BoJ Suzuki: Effective and sustainable monetary easing to persistently continue

                BoJ board member Hitoshi Suzuki said in a speech, “to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, the Bank is expected — even after COVID-19 subsides — to persistently continue with further effective and sustainable monetary easing”.

                However, it’s also necessary to “pay attention to the possibility that credit costs will increase due to a delay in economic recovery at home and abroad”. Also, “downward pressure on financial institutions’ core profitability is likely to persist as a trend even after COVID-19 subsides”.

                “My view is that the Bank should pay due attention to the fact that side effects of monetary easing will accumulate over time,” he added. “The Bank will continue to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner so as to fulfill the two missions of achieving price stability and ensuring the stability of the financial system.”

                Fed Mester very open to consider faster tapering

                  Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg TV, “making the taper faster is definitely buying insurance and optionality so that if inflation doesn’t move back down significantly next year we’re in a position to be able hike if we have to.”

                  She said that recent data “have come in supportive of that case, so I’m very open to considering a faster pace of tapering.”

                  “Right now, with the inflation data the way it is and with the job market as strong as it is, I do think that we have to be in a position that if we need to raise rates a couple of times next year we’re able to do that,” said Mester.

                  Fed Williams: To complete tapering earlier is a decisive to grapple with

                    New York Fed President John Williams said in an FT interview that Omicron “adds a lot of uncertainty to the outlook”. It will “will continue that excess demand in the areas that don’t have capacity, and will stall the recovery in the areas where we actually have the capacity.” That would mean a “somewhat slower rebound overall” and “increase those inflationary pressures, in those areas that are in high demand.”

                    As for monetary policy, “the question is: Would it make sense to end those purchases somewhat earlier, by maybe a few months, given how strong the economy is?” he said. “That’s a decision, discussion, I expect we’ll have to grapple with.”

                     

                    US ISM manufacturing ticked up to 61.1, corresponds to 5.1% annualized GDP growth

                      US ISM Manufacturing Index rose slightly from 60.8 to 61.1 in November, above expectation of 61.0. Looking at some details, new orders rose from 59.8 to 61.5. Production rose from 59.3 to 61.5. Employment rose from 52.0 to 53.3. Supplier deliveries dropped from 75.6 to 72.2. Prices dropped from 85.7 to 82.4.

                      ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI for November (61.1 percent) corresponds to a 5.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis”.

                      Full release here.

                      US ADP jobs grew 534k in Dec, recovery continued to power through its challenges

                        US ADP private employment grew 534k in December, slightly above expectation of 525k. By company size, small businesses job grew 115k, medium businesses grew 142k, large businesses grew 277. By sector, goods-producing jobs grew 110k, service-providing jobs grew 424k.

                        “The labor market recovery continued to power through its challenges last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year. Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year. It’s too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.”

                        Full release here.

                        UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.1 in Nov, but industry in a vulnerable position

                          UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.1 in November, up from October’s 57.8, hitting a 3-month high. Markit said output growth edged higher as domestic order intakes rose. New export business fell for the third straight month.

                          Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, said: “The current mix of supply-side constraints, cost increases, skill shortages and rising demand for labour will add to the expectations of an imminent rate increase by the central bank, but the survey highlights how the subdued rate of manufacturing growth and export decline leaves industry in a vulnerable position to any new headwinds, not least the Omicron variant.”

                          Full release here.

                          Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.4 in Nov, strong headline reading masks tough business conditions

                            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.4 in November, slightly up from October’s 58.3. Markit said stocks of purchases rose at strongest rate on record as firmed built safety buffers. Output price inflation hit fresh record while supplier performance deteriorated rapidly once again.

                            Looking as some member states, Italy PMI manufacturing rose to record high at 62.8. Others, except France at 55.9 (3-month high), dropped, but readings remained high, including the Netherlands at 60.7 (9-month low), Ireland at 59.9 (8-month low), Greece at 58.8 (2-month low), Austria at 58.1 (10-month low), Germany at 57.4 (10-month low), and Spain at 57.1 (8-month low).

                            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                            “A strong headline PMI reading masks just how tough business conditions are for manufacturers at the moment. Although demand remains strong, as witnessed by a further solid improvement in new order inflows, supply chains continue to deteriorate at a worrying rate. Shortages of inputs have restricted production growth so far in the fourth quarter to the weakest seen over the past year and a half…

                            “… Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infection rates cast a darkening cloud over the near-term outlook, threatening to further disrupt supply chains while at the same time diverting spending from consumer services to consumer goods again, therefore worsening the imbalance of supply and demand.”

                            Full release here.

                            Germany PMI manufacturing finalized at 57.4 in Nov, Another month of constrained manufacturing production

                              Germany PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 57.4 in November, down from October’s 57.8. Markit noted that input shortages held back output and, to a lesser extent, new orders. Rising energy costs helped drive new record increase in output prices. Business expectations improved for the first time in five months.

                              Phil Smith, Associate Economics Director at IHS Markit, said:

                              “November data signalled another month of constrained manufacturing production levels across Germany, as firms continued to have difficulty sourcing critical inputs and keeping up with demand. The survey’s output index did at least steady in November after being in free fall in recent months, possibly helped by fewer supply delays and firms’ recent efforts to accumulate greater safety stocks.

                              “However, the supply situation will likely need to improve a lot more before we see any real take-off in manufacturing production.

                              “While manufacturing output remains subdued, the opposite is true of factory gate prices which continue to sky-rocket, with November seeing the rate of charge inflation hitting to a new survey-high.

                              “Manufacturing expectations in November withstood the continued surge in prices, and even the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, to move to a three-month high. The emergence of the Omicron variant poses more uncertainties, however, including a risk of fresh supply-chain disruption.”

                              Full release here.

                              France PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.9 in Nov, tentative signs of stabilization

                                France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 55.9 in November, up from October’s 53.6. That’s the first increase since May. Markit noted that output volumes were broadly unchanged during the month. Demand improved, but remained subdued amid supply-related constraints. Output price inflation reached new high.

                                Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Tentative signs of stabilisation were seen in the French Manufacturing PMI during November, with the growth slowdown seen since post-pandemic growth peaked back in May finally coming to a halt. The headline PMI posted its first increase for six months as trends improved in output, new orders and employment.

                                “That said, beyond this positive direction change, the latest data continued to show intense supply-related constraints impeding manufacturing production, denting order book volumes and adding further pressure on margins. As a result, output prices were raised to the greatest extent since this data were first published back in 2002. While demand conditions have slowed, anecdotal evidence has thus far suggested this to be a symptom on component shortages, causing firms to postpone and cancel orders until supplies improve. We’re not seeing much evidence that higher prices are a factor in causing demand to soften, which means elevated rates of inflation may not prove so transitory as many anticipate.”

                                Full release here.

                                BoJ Adachi: Concern over spread of a new variant is increasing

                                  BoJ board member Seiji Adachi said in a speech, the number of new coronavirus case in Japan is seeing “great improvement”, with weekly average decline to a “considerable extent recently”. However, “the situation warrants careful attention, as concern over the spread of a new variant is increasing at the moment.”

                                  He added BoJ will “closely monitor the impact of COVID-19 and will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary, with a view to supporting firms’ ability to sustain their businesses”,

                                  “If the number of COVID- 19 cases resurges and it once again becomes inevitable to have public health measures in place, for example, it could become necessary to support corporate financing.”

                                  “The role of the COVID-19 Special Operations largely depends on developments relative to the pandemic, so it is necessary to assess such developments and their impact on corporate financing when deliberating on the next steps.”

                                  Full speech here.

                                  S&P 500 tumbled on hawkish Powell, pressing 55 D EMA

                                    US stocks dropped sharply overnight following surprisingly hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In short, he said that “the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown”. More importantly, Fed is “going to have a conversation at our next meeting about accelerating the taper and ending our asset purchases a few months early”.

                                    More on Fed: Hawkish Powell Expects Fed to End QE Tapering a Few Months Earlier than Previously Anticipated

                                    S&P 500 dropped -1.90% to close at 4567.0 and it’s now pressing 55 day EMA (now at 4564.0). Sustained break there will align the outlook with DOW, and indicates that 4743.83 is a medium term top.

                                    In this case, SPX could have already started a correction to whole up trend from 3233.94. Deeper decline could then be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 3233.94 to 4743.83 at 4167.05. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 4743.83 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

                                    China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.9, recovery not solid

                                      China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.6 to 49.9 in November, below expectation of 50.5. Caixin added that output rose for the first time in four months as power supply issues unwound. But total new orders fell slightly. Inflationary pressures eased markedly.

                                      Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the manufacturing sector remained stable overall in November. Increased downward pressure and easing inflationary pressure were prominent features of the economic situation…. After the shortage of power was alleviated, the supply side began to recover. But due to weak demand, the supply recovery was limited, and the foundation of the recovery was not solid.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 54.5 in Nov

                                        Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 54.5 in November, up from October’s 53.2. That’s the best reading since January 2018, and the 10th consecutive month of overall growth. Markit noted that output and new orders rose at faster rates. There was sharp rise in cost burdens amid sustained supply chain disruption. Businesses reported strong optimism regarding future output.

                                        Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Anecdotal evidence indicated supply chain disruption continued to hinder activity within the sector. Firms recorded a sustained and marked deterioration in lead times in November. Moreover, material shortages and logistical disruptions contributed to a rapid rise in average cost burdens, as input prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2008.

                                        “Beyond the immediate future, Japanese manufacturers remained confident that output would rise over the coming 12 months. Firms were hopeful that an end to the COVID-19 pandemic would accelerate the launch and mass production of new products, amid a broad-based boost to demand in both domestic and international markets. This is in line with the IHS Markit forecast of a 5.3% rise in industrial production in 2022.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Australia AiG manufacturing rose to 54.8, grew more decisively

                                          Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index rose 4.4 pts to 54.8 in November. Looking at some details, production rose 4.7 to 52.5. Employment rose 2.0 to 50.0. New orders rose 1.0 to 59.3. Supplier deliveries rose 12.2 to 53.4. Input prices dropped -3.5 to 78.3. Selling prices rose 4.2 to 68.1. Average wages dropped -1.3 to 62.4.

                                          Ai Group Chief Executive Innes Willox said: “The Australian manufacturing industry grew more decisively in November after a few flat months during which the south-east corner of the country was held back by the delta outbreaks and associated activity restrictions and while the states and territories tightened barriers to the movement of people.”

                                          Full release here.