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Australia GDP contracted -1.9% qoq in Q3, back below pre-pandemic level

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    ActionForex
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    Australia GDP contracted -1.9% qoq in Q3, better than expectation of -2.7% qoq. Through the year, GDP was up 3.9%.

    Acting Head of National Accounts at the ABS, Sean Crick said: “Domestic demand drove the fall, with prolonged lockdowns across NSW, Victoria and the ACT resulting in a substantial decline in household spending.

    “The fall in domestic demand was only partly offset by growth in net trade and public sector expenditure. GDP in the September quarter 2021 was 0.2 per cent below the December quarter 2019 pre-pandemic level.”

    Full release here.

    Dollar rebounds as Fed will discuss wrapping up tapering sooner

      By
      ActionForex
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      Dollar rebounds strongly after surprising hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In a hearing with the Senate Banking Committee, he said, “At this point, the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are higher, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases … perhaps a few months sooner.’ He added, “I expect that we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting.”

      “The word transitory has different meanings for different people. To many it carries a sense of short-lived. We tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,” Powell said. “I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.”

      EUR/USD tumbles sharply on the news, after breaching 1.1373 resistance very briefly. Attention is now on whether selling would gather momentum to push it through 1.1182 to resume the larger down trend from 1.2348.

      US consumer confidence dropped to 109.5 in Nov

        By
        ActionForex
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        US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from 111.6 to 109.5 in November, below expectation of 110.8. Present Situation Index dropped from 145.5 to 142.5. Expectations Index dropped from 89.0 to 87.6.

        “Consumer confidence moderated in November, following a gain in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

        “Expectations about short-term growth prospects ticked up, but job and income prospects ticked down. Concerns about rising prices—and, to a lesser degree, the Delta variant—were the primary drivers of the slight decline in confidence. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances over the next six months decreased.

        “The Conference Board expects this to be a good holiday season for retailers and confidence levels suggest the economic expansion will continue into early 2022. However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and a potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”

        Full release here.

        BoE Mann: Premature to even talk about timing of rate hike

          By
          ActionForex
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          BoE policy maker Catherine Mann said in an online event, “there’s still a lot of information to come in, especially with regard to omicron, so it is premature to even talk about timing (of rate hike), much less how much.”

          “It’s a particular question mark here as to whether or not that (Omicron) is going to reduce consumer confidence and leave us again in a situation of somewhat of a slacker demand for spending than we might have thought going forward,” she noted.

          Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in Sep, to grow further 0.8% in Oct

            By
            ActionForex
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            Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in September, matched expectations. Overall 12 of 20 industrial sectors were up. Growth in services-producing industrials (+0.4%) more than offsetting a decline in goods-producing industries (-0.6%).

            Preliminary information indicates that real GDP rebounded in October, up 0.8% with increases in most sectors.

            Full release here.

            Eurozone CPI surged to record 4.9% yoy in Nov, core CPI rose to 2.6% yoy

              By
              ActionForex
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              Eurozone CPI accelerated to 4.9% yoy in November, up from 4.1% yoy, well above expectation of 4.4% yoy. That’s the highest level on record in the 25 years of the series’s history. CPI core accelerated to 2.6% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 2.3% yoy.

              Looking at the main components of inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate (27.4%, compared with 23.7% in October), followed by services (2.7%, compared with 2.1% in October), non-energy industrial goods (2.4%, compared with 2.0% in October) and food, alcohol & tobacco (2.2%, compared with 1.9% in October).

              Full release here.

              Swiss KOF dropped to 108.5, a step further back to long term average

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                ActionForex
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                Swiss KOF economic barometer dropped to 108.5 in November, down from 110.2, below expectation of 109.0.

                KOF said: “The KOF economic barometer moves one step further towards its long-​term average shortly before the end of the year. The high-​flying of the barometer, which was observed in the middle of the year, is being cushioned by a further corrective movement. However, the barometer remains above its long-​term average. The prospects for the Swiss economy remain positive, given that economic activity is not impaired by a recurring spread of the virus.”

                Full release here.

                France CPI surged to 2.8% yoy, household consumption dropped -0.4% mom

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  France CPI surged to 2.8% yoy in November, following 2.6% yoy in October. HICP inflation also jumped to 3.4% yoy, up from 3.2% yoy. That’s also the highest level since 2008.

                  “This inflation for us today is temporary, it is linked to strong demand, itself linked to a recovery that is much stronger than we anticipated,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

                  Household consumption expenditure on goods in volume dropped -0.4% mom in October, versus expectation of 0.3% mom rise. Consumption remained below 01.8% below its pre-crisis level in Q4 2019. The contraction was mainly due to a sharp drop in consumption of manufactured goods (-1.8%). It is partially offset by the recovery in consumption of food (+0.7%) and energy (+1.0%).

                  Also released, GDP was finalized at 3.0% qoq in Q3, unrevised.

                  China PMI manufacturing rose to 50.1, non-manufacturing dropped to 52.3

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    China official PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 50.1 in November, above expectation of 49.6. PMI Non-Manufacturing dropped from 52.4 to 52.3, below expectation of 53.0. PMI Composite rose from 50.8 to 52.2.

                    “A series of policy measures to ensure energy supply and stabilize market prices have borne some fruits. The tight supply of electricity eased while prices of some raw materials dropped significantly in November,” said Zhao Qinghe, a senior NBS statistician.

                    Japan industrial production rose 1.1% mom in Oct, more growth expected in Nov and Dec

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Japan industrial production rose 1.1% mom in October, below expectation of 1.8% mom. That’s nonetheless the first rise in four months.

                      The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines stood at 90.5 against the 2015 base of 100. The index of industrial shipments increased 2.0% to 88.3 while that of inventories was up 0.8% at 98.9.

                      The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects industrial production to grow 9.0% mom in November and then 2.1% mom in December.

                      Unemployment rate dropped from 2.8% to 2.7% in October, better than expectation of 2.8%.

                      New Zealand ANZ business confidence finalized at -16.4 in Nov

                        By
                        ActionForex
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                        New Zealand ANZ business confidence was finalized at -16.4 in November, down from October’s -13.4. Own activity outlook dropped from 21.7 to 15.0. Looking at some more details, export intentions rose from 8.6 to 9.5. Investment intentions rose from1 3.8 to 16.3. Employment intentions rose from 10.9 to 15.8. Cost expectations rose from 87.2 to 88.7. Pricing intentions rose from 65.5 to 66.5. Inflation expectations rose from 3.45% to 4.24%.

                        ANZ said. “It’s an uncertain time for the New Zealand economy…. the global COVID situation has taken a turn as well with the uncertain implications of the new Omicron variant. Costs are rising and firms aren’t confident they’ll be able to maintain their profit margins. But in the bigger picture, demand is solid with jobs plentiful, Auckland is nearly out of lockdown, and there’s a plan to reopen the border, as long as the new variant doesn’t turn out to be a game changer…. it’s a mixed bag, yes, but overall things are still ticking along pretty well. Here’s hoping COVID doesn’t throw a curve ball.”

                        Full release here.

                        Fed Powell: Emergence of Omicron poses downside risks to economy

                          By
                          ActionForex
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                          In the prepared remarks for a Senate Committee hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said , “the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty for inflation.”

                          “Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people’s willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions,” he added.

                          Powell also reiterated, inflation is expected to “move down significantly over the next year as supply and demand imbalances abate.” However, “it now appears that factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year.” Also, “with the rapid improvement in the labor market, slack is diminishing, and wages are rising at a brisk pace.”

                          Full remarks here.

                          ECB de Guindos: Economic situation marked by a high degree of uncertainty

                            By
                            ActionForex
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                            Vice-President Luis de Guindos said in Madrid today, “economic situation is marked by a high degree of uncertainty with “outbreaks of infections” and “appearance of new variants.” He warned that potential withdrawal of policy support measures has to be taken very carefully. It’s important for monetary policy keep all options open.

                            De Guindos reiterated that factors behind inflation are of “transitory nature. And he expects inflation to start falling next year.

                            Separately, Governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau “obviously, we must monitor closely the latest COVID developments, and the new Omicron strain”. But he also noted, “the economic effects of the successive waves have proven so far to be less and less damaging, and this one shouldn’t presumably change the economic outlook too much.”

                            Eurozone economic sentiment rose dropped to 117.5, EU dropped to 116.5

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 118.6 to 117.5 in November. Industry confidence dropped from 14.2 to 14.1. Services confidence rose from 18.0 to 18.3. Consumer confidence dropped from -4.8 to -6.8. Retail trade confidence rose from 1.9 to 3.7. Construction confidence rose from 8.6 to 9.0. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 113.9 to 115.6, highest since January 2018.

                              EU ESI dropped from 117.6 to 116.5. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 114.2 to 115.6, highest since January 2018. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI rose in France (+3.0), Italy (+0.9) and Poland (+0.5). By contrast, confidence worsened in Spain (-2.6), the Netherlands (-2.1) and Germany (-1.7).

                              Full release here.

                              ECB Schnabel: November will prove to be the inflation peak

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said “November will prove to be the peak” of inflation. She added, “We predict inflation will fall back below 2%” target.

                                “I can very well understand that many people have worries,” she told Germany’s ZDF national television broadcaster in a live interview. “We must understand that this has to do with an extraordinary economic situation”, repeating the factors including base effects and rise in energy costs and raw materials prices.

                                RBNZ Ha: Omicron doesn’t change economic outlook, just reinforces downside risks

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  In a WSJ interview, RBNZ chief economic Yuong Ha said the central bank would have raised interest rate even if Omicron was know before the meeting last week.

                                  He said New Zealand is now “transitioning into a new Covid protection framework” and people are “getting used to the idea of living with Covid”. Hence, Omicron doesn’t change the outlook. “It probably just reinforces the downside risks we saw in the projections,” he said.

                                  RBNZ will be in a better place to assess Omicron’s economic impact at next meeting in February. “If Omicron turns out to be a massive game changer, that might be kind of like August where we just took a pause,” Ha said.

                                  ECB Panetta: Intervening on inflation now creates more damage than benefit

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said the current inflation in Eurozone is bad but also temporary. It’s driven by supply chain disruptions and energy prices which are “bound to be overcome”. He would be among the first in favor to intervene if inflation are becoming more permanent.

                                    But he added, “the central bank is not intervening because if it did, it would create more damage than benefit. It’s like an illness, not all medicines are good for all illnesses.”

                                    ECB Lagarde: We are all better equipped to respond to Omicron

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      ECB President Christine Lagarde said over the weekend that there is an “obvious concern” about the Eurozone economic recovery with the new Omicron variant. But she added, “I believe we have learnt a lot”.

                                      “We now know our enemy and what measures to take. We are all better equipped to respond to a risk of a fifth wave or the Omicron variant”, she said to Italian broadcaster RAI.

                                      “The crisis taught us this virus knows no boundaries. Therefore we will not be protected until we are all vaccinated”, Lagarde said.

                                      BoE Pill: Ground has now been prepared for policy action

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        In a speech, BoE chief economist Huw Pill said “the ground has now been prepared for policy action” with QE reaching its “natural end” next month. Incoming data supports the conclusion that “recovery is continuing” supply disruptions “create inflationary pressures”, and “labour market is tight”.

                                        These developments were “sufficient” for Pill to support the MPC’s November steer, “should the incoming data continue to be consistent with the projections published in the committee’s latest Monetary Policy Report, it will be necessary over coming months to increase Bank Rate for the inflation target is to be achieved in a sustainable manner.”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        WTI oil in free fall, can 71 fibo support hold?

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          WTI crude oil is in free fall today, together with other risk markets. At this point, the decline from 85.92 is seen as a correction to rise from 61.90 only. Hence, we’d start to look for bottoming signal around 61.8% retracement of 61.90 to 85.92 at 71.07. This is slightly lower than medium term trend line at around 71.5.

                                          However, in any case, break of 80.04 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor. Indeed, sustained break of 71.07 fibonacci level will argue that WTI is already correcting the long term up trend. In such case, even deeper fall would be seen towards 61.90 key structural support.

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