UK retail sales rose 0.8% mom in Oct, ex-fuel sales grew 1.6% mom

    UK retail sales grew 0.8% mom in October, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-fuel sales jumped 1.6% mom, above expectation of 0.2% mom.

    However, over the three months to October, sales volumes dropped -2.3% when compared with the previous three months. Compared with the same period a year earlier, sales volumes over the last three months dropped -0.5%.

    Retail sales values, unadjusted for price changes, rose by 1.6% in October 2021, following an increase of 0.2% in September. Over the last three months to October 2021, the value of sales was up 3.3% on the same period a year earlier, reflecting an annual retail sales implied price deflator of 3.8%.

    Full release here.

    UK Gfk consumer confidence rose to -14 despite higher inflation

      UK GfK consumer confidence rose from -17 to -14 in November, better than expectation of -16. Expectation of personal financial situation over the next 12 months rose 1pt to 2. Expectation of general economic situation over the next 12 months rose 3 pts to -23.

      Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, comments:”Headline consumer sentiment has ticked upwards this month despite decade-high inflation, fears of higher prices and worries over rising interest rates, and as the deepening cost-of-living squeeze leaves UK household finances worse off this winter.

      Full release here.

      Japan CPI core rose 0.1% yoy in Oct, second month of rise

        Japan all-time CPI dropped from 0.2% yoy to 0.1% yoy in October. CPI core (all-item ex food) was unchanged at 0.1% yoy. CPI core-core (all-item ex food and energy), dropped further from -0.5% yoy to -0.7% yoy.

        The CPI core reading is now rising for the second straight month. Overall energy prices rose 11.3%. Gasoline prices surged at highest rate in over 13 years, up 21.4%, while kerosene also rose 25.9%. Accommodation fees gained 59.1%.

        Bot CPI core-core was negative for the seventh straight month, as weighed down by record -53.6% fall in mobile communications fees.

        Fed Bostic: Appropriate to normalize interest rate by summertime next year

          Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday, “right now, our projections suggest that by the summertime of next year, the number of jobs that we have in the economy will be pretty much where we were pre-pandemic.”

          “And at that point, I think it’s appropriate for us to try to normalize our interest rate policy,” he added.

          Fed Evans: Inflation is not hair on fire

            Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he wouldn’t describe inflation as “hair on fire”. But he admitted, high inflation is “gone on longer”, and things are “not quite as clean as I was hoping for”.

            Evans also tried to solidify the expectation that Fed won’t raise interesting rate before completing tapering. Also, there won’t be adjustment in the tapering pace, “state-contingent, we see a big change in the data.”

            US initial jobless claims dropped to 268k, continuing claims dropped to 2.08m

              US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 268 in the week ending November 13, above expectation of 260k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -6k to 253k. Both were the lowest since March 14, 2020.

              Continuing claims dropped -129k to 2080k, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -100k to 2157k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

              Full release here.

              OECD: France GDP to grow 6.8% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022

                OECD projects a strong 6.8% growth in France GDP in 2021, followed by 4.2% in 2022. Private consumption is forecast to grow 4.8% in 2021, and a further 6.8% in 2022. Unemployment is expected to drop to 7.8% this year and then 7.6% next. CPI is expected to be at 1.9% this year, then slow to 1.7% next.

                “France’s response to the COVID-19 crisis has been swift and effective, enabling it to emerge from the health crisis with jobs and household incomes well protected and its economic capacity largely preserved,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “A rigorous implementation of the government’s Recovery and Investment Plans will help to turn the rebound into lasting sustained growth, building a greener, more digital and more resilient economy.”

                Full release here.

                Panetta: ECB to develop digital euro prototype in 2023

                  ECB Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta said in a speech, “Over the next two years we will investigate the key issues related to the design and distribution of a digital euro”.

                  The digital euro will be designed to be an “efficient means of payment”, but also to “preserve financial stability”. He added, “we will need to strike a balance between maximising its appeal as a means of exchange and limiting its use as a form of investment.”

                  The Eurosystem High-Level Task Force on Central Bank Digital Currency is working to identify “use cases and design options”. After this phase, ECB will move on to examining “technological solutions. Panetta said, “we expect to narrow down the design-related decisions by the beginning of 2023 and develop a prototype in the following months.”

                  Full speech here.

                  NZD/USD recovers mildly, but outlook stays bearish

                    NZD/USD recovers mildly today but overall outlook is unchanged. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.7079 minor resistance holds. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.6804 is complete with three waves up to 0.7217. In other words, larger decline from 0.7463 is not over.

                    Fall from 0.7271 should target 0.6858 support next. Firm break there will solidify this bearish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 0.7463 through 0.6804 low, to 38.2% retracement of 0.5467 to 0.7463 at 0.6701.

                    RBNZ survey: Four rate hikes over next seven meetings

                      In the latest RBNZ survey for Q4, 2-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.27% to 2.96%, highest since June 2011. 5-year inflation inflation expectation rose from 2.03 to 2.17%, highest since September 2017.

                      Currently, the OCR is standing at 0.50%, after a rate hike of 25bps in October 6. Survey respondents expect Oct. to rise further to 0.75% by the end of the current quarter. Mean estimate for OCR one year ahead was 1.53%, translating to four 25bps hike over the next seven RBNZ meetings. Two year-head expectations stands at 1.83%, with more respondents expecting OCR to be either at 1.50% or 2.0)% by the end of September 2023.

                      Full release here.

                      CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY resume corrective decline

                        Following the pullback in US stocks overnight, Yen crosses are trading generally lower. In particular, CAD/JPY resumed the decline from 93.00 by breaking through 90.40 temporary low. Judging from the development in Yen pairs elsewhere, there is prospect of deeper decline even if such fall is still a corrective more.

                        For now, further decline is expected in CAD/JPY as long as 91.58 minor resistance holds. 38.2% retracement of 84.65 to 93.00 at 89.81 might provide some initial support. But firm break there will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 87.83.

                        Development in AUD/JPY is slightly more bearish, as 55 day EMA and 38.2% retracement of 77.88 to 86.24 at 83.04 are both taken out. Fall from 86.24 has just resumed. Deeper decline is expected as long as 84.14 resistance holds, for 61.8% retracement at 81.07 and possibly below.

                        Fed Evans: Going to take us until the middle of next year to complete tapering

                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a virtual conference, “we learned back in 2013 that tapering these asset purchases was preferable for financial market functioning; that if we did a sudden stop on our purchases that wasn’t well received. It’s going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that”.

                          “It’s going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that; we are going to be mindful of inflation; we’re going to be looking to see how much additional accommodation is boosting inflation; if indeed that is the case, we’ll be thinking about when the right time to start raising rates will be,” he added.

                          US oil inventories dropped -2.1m barrels, WTI extending consolidation

                            US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -2.1m barrels in the week ending November 12, versus expectation of 1m rise. At 433.0m barrels, oil inventories are about -7% below the five year average for this time of year.

                            Gasoline inventories dropped -0.7m barrels. Distillate inventories dropped -0.8m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -0.2m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -8.9m barrels.

                            WTI crude oil has little reaction to the data. It’s still extending the consolidation pattern from 85.92 short term top. For now, we’d continue to expect strong support from 78.54 to contain downside to bring rebound. This level is slightly above 55 day EMA at 78.47.

                            Medium term up trend should resume sooner or later and the real test is from 61.8% projection of 33.50 to 77.16 from 61.90 at 88.88. However, firm break of 78.54 will turn near term outlook bearish for deeper pull back into 61.90/77.16 support zone.

                            ECB Schnabel: Monetary policymakers need to focus on the entire range of possible outcomes

                              ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech, “inflation will remain higher for longer than previously anticipated”. In will “decline over the course of next year”, but, “uncertainty has increased around the pace and extent of the slowdown”.

                              “In such situations of elevated uncertainty, monetary policymakers need to focus on the entire range of possible outcomes to ensure that they will be able to deliver on their mandate,” she added.

                              “On the one hand, this means avoiding the mistake of a premature tightening of monetary policy in response to a temporary and possibly short-lived inflation spike. ”

                              “On the other hand, it means keeping a watchful eye on the upside risks to inflation that financial markets currently anticipate and retain optionality to be able to act if needed, so as to maintain trust in our determination to defend price stability in a symmetric way and prevent a deanchoring of inflation expectations in both directions.”

                              Full speech here.

                              Canada CPI accelerated to 4.7% yoy in Oct, highest since 2003

                                Canada CPI accelerated to 4.7% yoy in October, up from September’s 4.4% yoy, matched expectations. That’s the highest reading since February 2003. Excluding energy, CPI rose 3.3% yoy, unchanged from September’s reading. On a monthly basis CPI rose 0.7% mom, largest gains since June 2020.

                                CPI common was unchanged at 1.8% yoy, below expectation of 1.9% yoy. CPI median rose to 2.9% yoy, up from 2.8% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed slowed to 3.3% yoy, down from 3.4% yoy, below expectation of 3.4% yoy.

                                Full release here.

                                UK CPI surged to 4.2% yoy in Oct, highest since 2011

                                  UK CPI surged to 4.2% yoy in October, up from 3.1% yoy, above expectation of 3.8% yoy. That’s the highest level in nearly 10 years since November 2011. Core CPI also jumped to 3.4% yoy, up from 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 3.0% yoy. RPI also accelerated to 6.0% yoy, up from 4.9% yoy, above expectation of 5.6% yoy.

                                  PPI input came in at 1.4% mom, 13.0% yoy, versus expectation of 1.1% mom, 11.6% yoy. PPI output was at 1.1% mom, 8.0% yoy, versus expectation of of 0.7% mom, 6.8% yoy. PPI core output was at 0.8% mom, 6.5% yoy, matched expectations.

                                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 4.1% yoy in Oct, EU at 4.4%

                                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 4.1% yoy in October, up from September’s 3.4%. The highest contribution came from energy (+2.21%), followed by services (+0.86%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.55%) and food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.43%).

                                    EU CPI was finalized at 4.4%, up from September’s 3.6% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (1.4%), Portugal (1.8%), Finland and Greece (both 2.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania (8.2%), Estonia (6.8%) and Hungary (6.6%). Compared with September, annual inflation rose in all twenty-seven Member States.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Australia wage price index rose 0.6% qoq in Q3, back to pre-pandemic pattern

                                      Australia wage price index rose 0.6% qoq 2.2% yoy in Q3. Private sector rose 0.6% qoq, 2.4% yoy. Public sector rose 0.5% qoq, 1.7% yoy. The three largest states were the main contributors to growth, New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. The most significant industries to contribute to growth this quarter were the Professional, scientific and technical services, Health care and social assistance and Construction industries.

                                      Michelle Marquardt, Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, said: “This release of WPI shows the return of a more regular September quarter pattern of wage growth, following the labour market disruptions through 2020 and 2021.

                                      “Wage and salary reviews around the end of the financial year, scheduled enterprise agreements and annual award rises all contributed to growth. Pockets of wage pressure continued to build for skilled construction-related, technical and business services roles, leading to larger ad hoc rises as businesses looked to retain experienced staff and attract new staff.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Japan exports growth slowed to 9.4% yoy on fall in car shipments

                                        Japan exports rose 9.4% yoy to JPY 7.18B in October. That was the slowest expansion since a decline in February. By region, exports to China rose 9.5% yoy, slowed from 10.3% yoy in the prior month, on -46.8% yoy fall in car shipments. Exports to US grew just 0.4% yoy, also weighed down by -46.4% yoy fall in car exports. Imports rose 26.7% yoy to JPY 7.25B. Trade balance came at as JPY -0.07B deficit

                                        In seasonally adjusted terms exports rose 2.7% mom to JPY 6.93B while imports rose 0.3% mom to JPY 7.38B. Trade deficit came in at JPY -0.44B.

                                        Also from Japan, machine orders rose 0.0% mom in September, versus expectation of 1.8% mom.

                                        Fed Daly: Ready to act as we get clearer signal

                                          San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly urged patience in assess the economic development before acting on interest rates. “Reacting in response to things that aren’t likely to last will move us farther from — not closer to — our goals,” she said.

                                          “Over the next several quarters, as tapering occurs, we will watch how the economy does and see whether inflation eases and workers come back.”

                                          “As we get a clearer signal, we will be ready to act accordingly, continuing to provide or remove support as needed to ensure the economy settles at a sustainable place.”