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Eurozone CPI finalized at 4.1% yoy in Oct, EU at 4.4%

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    ActionForex
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    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 4.1% yoy in October, up from September’s 3.4%. The highest contribution came from energy (+2.21%), followed by services (+0.86%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.55%) and food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.43%).

    EU CPI was finalized at 4.4%, up from September’s 3.6% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (1.4%), Portugal (1.8%), Finland and Greece (both 2.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania (8.2%), Estonia (6.8%) and Hungary (6.6%). Compared with September, annual inflation rose in all twenty-seven Member States.

    Full release here.

    Australia wage price index rose 0.6% qoq in Q3, back to pre-pandemic pattern

      By
      ActionForex
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      Australia wage price index rose 0.6% qoq 2.2% yoy in Q3. Private sector rose 0.6% qoq, 2.4% yoy. Public sector rose 0.5% qoq, 1.7% yoy. The three largest states were the main contributors to growth, New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. The most significant industries to contribute to growth this quarter were the Professional, scientific and technical services, Health care and social assistance and Construction industries.

      Michelle Marquardt, Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, said: “This release of WPI shows the return of a more regular September quarter pattern of wage growth, following the labour market disruptions through 2020 and 2021.

      “Wage and salary reviews around the end of the financial year, scheduled enterprise agreements and annual award rises all contributed to growth. Pockets of wage pressure continued to build for skilled construction-related, technical and business services roles, leading to larger ad hoc rises as businesses looked to retain experienced staff and attract new staff.”

      Full release here.

      Japan exports growth slowed to 9.4% yoy on fall in car shipments

        By
        ActionForex
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        Japan exports rose 9.4% yoy to JPY 7.18B in October. That was the slowest expansion since a decline in February. By region, exports to China rose 9.5% yoy, slowed from 10.3% yoy in the prior month, on -46.8% yoy fall in car shipments. Exports to US grew just 0.4% yoy, also weighed down by -46.4% yoy fall in car exports. Imports rose 26.7% yoy to JPY 7.25B. Trade balance came at as JPY -0.07B deficit

        In seasonally adjusted terms exports rose 2.7% mom to JPY 6.93B while imports rose 0.3% mom to JPY 7.38B. Trade deficit came in at JPY -0.44B.

        Also from Japan, machine orders rose 0.0% mom in September, versus expectation of 1.8% mom.

        Fed Daly: Ready to act as we get clearer signal

          By
          ActionForex
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          San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly urged patience in assess the economic development before acting on interest rates. “Reacting in response to things that aren’t likely to last will move us farther from — not closer to — our goals,” she said.

          “Over the next several quarters, as tapering occurs, we will watch how the economy does and see whether inflation eases and workers come back.”

          “As we get a clearer signal, we will be ready to act accordingly, continuing to provide or remove support as needed to ensure the economy settles at a sustainable place.”

          BoC Schembri: Rate to stay at ELB until excess capacity is absorbed

            By
            ActionForex
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            BoC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said yesterday, “Our assessment of labour market conditions and underlying capacity and inflationary pressures is now more difficult. Consequently, more uncertainty exists around the timing of when the output gap will close and inflation will return sustainably to our 2-per-cent target.”

            “We’ll keep the policy rate at the effective lower bound [0.25%] until excess capacity is absorbed … that excess capacity includes all the groups of employees that aren’t fully employed at this juncture,” Schembri said in response to a question after the speech.

            “Now of course, one has to take into account that there’s going to be some natural friction in the labour market, people are going to move between jobs, so we’re not saying that there has to be zero unemployment,” he added.

            Bullard: Fed should tack in a more hawkish direction

              By
              ActionForex
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              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Fed should “tack in a more hawkish direction” over the next few meetings. He warned, “if inflation happens to go away we are in great shape for that. If inflation doesn’t go away as quickly as many are currently anticipating it is going to be up to (Fed) to keep inflation under control.”

              He added that if Fed increase the pace of tapering to USD 30B per month, that would open the door for a rate hike at the end of Q1. He has penciled in two hikes for next year and agreed with markets’ assessment. Also, he’s open to the idea of raising interest rate before tapering completes.

              US retail sales rose 1.7% mom in Oct, ex-auto sales up 1.7% mom

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                US retail sales rose 1.7% mom in to USD 638.2B in October, above expectation of 1.2% mom. Total sales for the August through October period were up 15.4% from the same period a year ago.

                Ex-auto sales rose 1.7% mom, above expectation of 1.2% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 1.5% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 1.4% mom.

                Full release here.

                Eurozone GDP grew 2.2% qoq in Q3, EU rose 2.1% qoq

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  According to flash estimate, Eurozone GDP grew 2.2% qoq in Q3, 3.7% yoy. Employment grew 0.9% qoq, 2.0% yoy.

                  EU GDP grew 2.1% qoq, 3.9% yoy. Employment grew 0.9% qoq, 2.1% yoy.

                  Full release here.

                  UK unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, employment rate rose to 75.4%

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    UK unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in the three months to September, down from 4.5%, better than expectation of 4.5%. Employment rate rose 0.4% to 75.4%, “driven by a record high net flow from unemployment to employment”. Payrolled employment rose 160k.

                    Wage growth disappointed, however, with average earnings excluding bonus up 4.9% 3moy versus expectation of 6.0%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.8% 3moy, versus expectation of 7.0%. in October, claimant count dropped -14.9k.

                    Full release here.

                    EUR/CAD downside breakout on broad Euro weakness

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      EUR/CAD’s down trend finally resumed this week, following broad based selloff in Euro, and hit as low as 1.4211 so far. Current fall is part of the down trend from 1.5991. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5783 to 1.4580 from 1.5096 at 1.3893. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.4661 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

                      Also, it should be noted that 1.4263 key support (2020 low) is now taken out by the cross. Fall from 1.5991 would extend through 1.3782 support before bottoming. Yet, we’re not seeing a strong bearish scenarios for pushing through 1.3019 yet. We’ll see how the downside momentum develops in the medium term.

                      RBA Lowe: Still plausible that rate won’t be raised before 2024

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        In a speech, RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated, “the latest data and forecasts do not warrant an increase in the cash rate in 2022.” Also, it’s “still plausible that the first increase in the cash rate will not be before 2024” even if underlying inflation hits 2.5%.

                        He said, the central scenario is that underlying inflation will reach “middle of the target by the end of 2023”. That would be the first time in nearly seven years that inflation is at the mid-point. And, “this, by itself, does not warrant an increase in the cash rate.”

                        For rate hike, RBA would like to see inflation “well within the 2–3 per cent range”, and, ” have a reasonable degree of confidence that it will not fall back again”. The “trajectory” is important, “with a slow drift up in underlying inflation having different policy implications to a sharp rise.”

                        Another important consideration will be developments in the labor market. wages growth is used as one of the “guideposts” and “it is likely that wages will need to be growing at 3 point something per cent to sustain inflation around the middle of the target band.”

                        Full speech here.

                        Fed Barkin: It’s helpful to have a few months to evaluate

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said yesterday that it’s helpful to have “a few more months” to evaluate to see “where reality is in this economy, and if the need to act is there”. He added that “we’re not going to hesitate” to accelerate tapering to get ahead of inflation is needed”.

                          But, “I personally think it’s very helpful for us to have a few more months to evaluate, is inflation going to come back to more normal levels? Is the labor market going to open up as people spend through some of this savings?”

                          US Empire State manufacturing rose to 30.9, employees and price paid surged

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions jumped to 30.9 in November, up from 19.8, above expectation of 20.2. 43% of respondents reported improved conditions while 12% reported worsened conditions.

                            New orders rose 5 pts to 28.8. Shipment jumped 19 pts to 28.2. Delivery times dropped -5.8 to 38.0. Number of employees jumped 9 pts to 26.0, a record high. Average workweek also jumped 8 pts to 23.1. Price paid rose 4 pts to 83.0. Price paid rose 7 pts to 50.8, a record high.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB Lagarde: Conditions for rate hike very unlikely to be satisfied next year

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              In a European Parliament committee hearing, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “growth momentum is moderating to some extent owing to supply bottlenecks and the rise in energy prices.” Consumer spending is “solid”, but shortages of materials, equipment and labour are “weighing on manufacturing production, weakening the near-term outlook.” “Although the duration of supply constraints is uncertain, they are likely to persist for several months and gradually ease only during 2022,” she added.

                              Lagarde also reiterated that the upswing in inflation is driven by three primary forces, energy prices, demand outpacing constrained supply, and reversal effect of German VAT cut. “The latter factor will fall out of the inflation calculation from January 2022 but the other two may last longer.” “As a result, we still see inflation moderating in the next year, but it will take longer to decline than originally expected,” she said.

                              On monetary policy, she said the conditions for rate hike are “very unlikely to be satisfied next year”. Intentions on further calibration of bond purchases will be announced in December. But “even after the expected end of the pandemic emergency, it will still be important that monetary policy – including the appropriate calibration of asset purchases – supports the recovery throughout the euro area and the sustainable return of inflation to our target of two per cent.”

                              Full introductory statement here.

                              Eurozone exports rose 10.0% yoy in Sep, imports rose 21.6% yoy

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world rose 10.0% yoy to EUR 209.3B in September. Imports rose 21.6% yoy to EUR 202.0B. As a result, Eurozone recorded a EUR 7.3B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 16.4% yoy to EUR 191.5B.

                                In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports dropped -0.4% mom to EUR 201.4B. Imports rose 1.5% mom to EUR 195.3%. Trade surplus narrowed to EUR 6.1B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose EUR 0.8B to EUR 182.9B.

                                Full release here.

                                China industrial production rose 3.5% yoy in Oct, retail sales up 4.9% yoy

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  China industrial production rose 3.5% yoy in October, above expectation of 3.0% yoy. Retail sales rose 4.9% yoy, versus expectation of 3.8% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 6.1% ytd yoy, versus expectation of 6.2%.

                                  “The national economy was generally stable and maintained the trend of recovery,” the NBS said in a statement. “However, we must be aware that the international environment is still complicated and severe with many unstable and uncertain factors.”

                                  BoJ Kuroda: Recovery mechanism maintained, inflation to hit 1% mid 2022

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    In a speech with business leaders, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that CPI is likely to “increase moderately in positive territory for the time being”, reflecting rise in energy prices. Thereafter, “it is projected to increase gradually to about 1 percent as the output gap turns positive around the middle of next year.”

                                    He noted that economic recovery in Japan has been “somewhat slower than initially expected”. Nevertheless “the mechanism for economic recovery has been maintained.”

                                    Real GDP is expected to recovery to pre-pandemic level in the first half of 2022. Thereafter, “as the resumption of economic activity progresses while public health is being protected, Japan’s economy is expected to follow a growth path that outpaces its potential growth rate, supported by relatively high growth in overseas economies and accommodative financial conditions.”

                                    Full speech here.

                                    Japan GDP contracted -0.8% qoq, -3.0% annualized in Q3

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Japan GDP contracted -0.8% qoq in Q3, much worse than expectation of -0.2% qoq. In annualized term, GDP dropped -3.0% qoq, much worse than expectation of -0.8%.

                                      Capital expenditure dropped -0.8% qoq, versus expectation of -0.6% qoq. External demand rose 0.1% qoq, versus expectation of 0.0% qoq. Private consumption dropped -1.1% qoq, versus expectation of -0.5% qoq. GDP price index dropped -1.1%, slightly better than expectation of -1.2%.

                                      Economy minister Daishiro Yamagiwa said pace of pickup in the economy is weakening and policy support is needed. He also warned of downside risks from the global supply constraints. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to reveal a stimulus package “worth several tens of trillion yen” later this week on November 19.

                                      Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.2% mom in Sep, EU down -0.5% mom

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.2% mom in September, better than expectation of -0.5% mom. Production of capital goods fell by -0.7%, intermediate goods by -0.2%, while production of energy remained stable, durable consumer goods rose by 0.5% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.0%.

                                        EU industrial production dropped -0.5% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases were registered in Denmark (-5.0%), Czechia (-3.2%) and Austria (-3.0%). The highest increases were observed in Estonia (+5.3%), Lithuania (+4.3%) and Belgium (+3.7%).

                                        Full release here.

                                        New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing rose to 54.3, recovery from a large hard hit

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 51.6 to 54.3 in October. Looking at some details, production rose from 49.8 to 54.0. Employment dropped from 54.2 to 52.1. New orders dropped from 54.1 to 53.9. Finished stocks rose from 50.2 to 54.9. Deliveries rose from 47.9 to 59.9.

                                          BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated that “even though October’s reading is above average, we’d classify it more in the realm of some recovery from a large hit rather than an indication of outright strength.”

                                          Full release here.

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