BoC Macklem: High inflation is transitory but not short-lived

    BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in in TV interview over the weekend that current high inflation will be “transitory but not short-lived”.

    I think transitory, to economists, means sort of not permanent,” he said. “I think to a lot of people, transitory means it’s going to be over quickly. … I don’t know exactly what the right word is, but it’s probably something like, ‘transitory but not short-lived.'”

    Macklem pointed to the latest economic projections, which indicated that inflation would rise further from current 18-year high of 4.4% to 5%, then gradually drop back to 2% by the end of next year. And that’s what he meant by “transitory but not short-lived”.

    BoJ opinions: Important to persistently continue with extremely accommodative monetary policy

      In the Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s October 27-28 meeting, it’s noted that because of low inflation, it’s important to persistently continue with extremely accommodative monetary policy even when pent-up demand increases.” Also, BoJ should “persistently continue with the current monetary easing” so that “a rise in corporate profits leads to wage increases and the virtuous cycle from income to spending intensifies.”

      To “alleviate the effects of deterioration in the terms of trade”, it’s necessary to improve economic activity and raise inflation expectations so that “firms can smoothly pass on the rise in raw material prices to domestic selling prices.” It’s important to “improve the output gap” so that “the pass-through of price rises will be promoted..

      Yen’s depreciation reflected “differences in inflation rates and monetary policy stances among economies.” It’s important to consider the impact of rise in international commodity prices and Yen’s depreciation. But, it is necessary to keep in mind that their effects on each economic entity are uneven depending on industry and size.

      Full Summary of Opinions here.

      US NFP grew 531k in Oct, unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%

        US non-farm payroll employment grew 531k in October, better than expectation of 425k. Prior month’s figure was also revised sharply higher from 194k to 312k. Thus far this year, monthly job growth averaged 582k. Total non-farm employment was still -4.2m, or -2.8% from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

        Unemployment rate dropped from 4.8% to 4.6%, below expectation of 4.7%. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, matched expectations.

        Full release here.

        Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in Sep, EU down -0.2% mom

          Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in September, versus expectation of 0.2% mom. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.5% for non-food products, while it rose for food, drinks and tobacco by 0.7% and for automotive fuels by 1.1%.

          EU retail sales dropped -0.2% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Germany (-2.5%), Finland (-1.9%) and the Netherlands (-1.2%). The highest increases were observed in Estonia (+7.1%), Slovakia (+2.9%) and Luxembourg (+2.3%).

          Full release here.

          Dollar index awaits NFP to guide range breakout

            US non-farm payroll employment is again a major focus. Markets are expecting 425k job growth in October. Unemployment rate is expected to tick down by 0.1% to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.4% mom.

            Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing employment rose from 50.2 to 52.0. But ISM services employment dropped from 53.0 to 51.6. ADP private jobs grew 571k, rose slightly from prior month’s 523k. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims continued to trend down, notably, from 344k to 285k.

            All in all, today’s NFP will likely be a solid one, affirming Fed’s tapering plan. The main question ahead is whether wage growth would continue in a strong trend, the pushes up inflation, and force Fed for an earlier hike. Strong wage growth could push Dollar index out of the near term range.

            Dollar index is now  sitting in range below 94.56 short term top. The support from 55 day EMA is a bullish sign. Yet, it will have to break through key long term fibonacci resistance at 94.46 (38.2% retracement of 102.99 to 89.20) decisively to confirm medium term bullishness. In the case, we’d probably seen upside acceleration ahead to 61.8% retracement at 97.72. However, break of 93.27 support will suggest rejection by 94.46, and turn near term outlook bearish for deeper pull back.

            RBA SoMP: Inflation forecasts upgraded across horizon

              As seen in RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy, 2021 year-average GDP growth forecasts was downgraded from 4.75% to 4.25%. 2022 GDP year-average GDP growth forecast was left unchanged at 5%. 2023 year-average growth forecast was upgraded from 2.75% to 3%.

              Headline CPI inflation forecasts were raised across the horizon, with 2021 year-end increased from 2.5% to 3.25%, 2022 year-end increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, 2023 year-end increased from 2.25% to 2.5%. Trimmed mean inflation forecasts were also raised, with 2021 year-end increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, 2022 year-end from 1.75% to 2.25%, 2023 year-end from 2.25% to 2.5%.

              2021 year-end unemployment rate forecast was lowered from 5% to 4.75%. 2022 year-end and 2023 year-end unemployment rate forecast was left unchanged at 4.25% and 4% respectively.

              Full SoMP here.

              Australia AiG services rose to 47.6 in Oct, third month in contraction

                Australia AiG Performance of Services rose 1.9 pts to 47.6 in October, marking a third month in contraction. Sales rose 13.8 to 55.2. Employment rose 4.8 to 56.8. New orders dropped -1.0 to 38.8. supplier deliveries dropped -7.5 to 39.5. Finished stocks dropped -13.7 to 39.8. Capacity utilization dropped -1.7 to 74.5. Input prices rose 9.1 to 73.6. Selling prices rose 7.8 to 61.7. Average wages rose 9.1 to 68.3.

                Ai Group Chief Executive, Innes Willox, said: “The Australian services sector reported mixed fortunes in October… Across the services sector, sales and employment were higher in October while new orders were discouragingly low. A more robust recovery was inhibited by lingering activity restrictions, barriers to interstate movement and the same disruptions to the supply of inputs that are being felt in other parts of the economy… Services companies reported further strong rises in input prices and wages with selling prices also rising although not by enough to prevent additional pressure on margins.”

                Full release here.

                US initial jobless claims dropped to 269, continuing claims down to 2.1m

                  US initial jobless claims dropped -14k to 269k in the week ending October 30, better than expectation of 277k. That’s the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -15k to 285k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                  Continuing claims dropped -134k to 2105k in the week ending October 23, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -156k to 2357k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                  Full release here.

                  BoE stands pat, but sees it’s necessary to hike in coming months

                    BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% by 7-2 vote today. Known hawks Dave Rasmden and Michael Saunders voted for a hike to 0.25%. The MPC also voted by 6-3 to continue with government bond purchase with GBP 875B. Catherine Mann, Dave Rasmden and Michael Saunders voted to cut bond purchases by GBP 20B.

                    In the forward guidance, BoE said if incoming data, particularly on the labor market, are inline withe central projections in the Monetary Policy Report, it will be “necessary over coming months to increase Bank Rate in order to return CPI inflation sustainably to the 2% target.”

                    Full statement here.

                    Eurozone PPI rose 2.7% mom , 16.0% yoy in Sep, well above expectations

                      Eurozone PPI rose 2.7% mom, 16.0 yoy in September, above expectation of 1.9% mom, 15.2% yoy. For the month, Industrial producer prices, increased by 7.7% in the energy sector, by 1.0% for intermediate goods, by 0.5% for capital goods, by 0.4% for durable consumer goods and by 0.3% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.6%.

                      EU PPI rose 2.7% mom, 16.2% yoy. The industrial producer prices increased in all Member States, with the highest monthly increases being registered in Ireland (+23.2%), Denmark (+8.4%) and Greece (+5.8%).

                      Full release here.

                      UK PMI construction rose to 54.6 in Oct, worst supply crunch may have passed

                        UK PMI Construction rose to 54.6 in October, up from 52.6, slightly above expectation of 54.0. Construction recovery accelerated from September’s eight-month low. House building regained its place as the best-performing category. But severe shortages of staff and materials continued.

                        Tim Moore, Director at IHS Markit said:

                        “UK construction companies achieved a faster expansion of output volumes in October, despite headwinds from severe supply constraints and escalating costs…. “However, the volatile price and supply environment added to business uncertainty and continued to impede contract negotiations… There were widespread reports that shortages of materials and staff had disrupted work on site, while rising fuel and energy prices added to pressure on costs.

                        “Nonetheless, the worst phase of the supply crunch may have passed, as the number of construction firms citing supplier delays fell to 54% in October, down from 63% in September. Similarly, reports of rising purchasing costs continued to recede from the record highs seen this summer.”

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 54.2, still consistent with 0.5% quarterly GDP growth

                          Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 54.6 in October, down from September’s 56.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.2, down from September’s 56.2. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI composite rose to 2-month high at 62.5. Spain dropped to 6-month low at 56.2. France dropped to 6-month low at 54.7. Italy dropped to 6-month low at 54.2. Germany dropped to 8-month low at 52.0.

                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                          “Eurozone growth has slowed sharply at the start of the fourth quarter, with manufacturing hamstrung by supply constraints and services losing momentum as the rebound from lockdowns fades.

                          “Despite the slowdown, the rate of expansion remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of 0.5%, but there’s a worrying lack of clarity on the direction of travel in coming months.

                          “With supply shortages getting worse rather than better in October, manufacturing growth is likely to remain subdued for some time to come. That would leave the economy reliant on the service sector to drive growth, and there are already signs that rising virus case numbers are dampening activity in many service sector businesses, notably – but by no means exclusively – in Germany.

                          “Ongoing supply shortages meanwhile suggest that high price pressures will persist into next year, but as yet there are no signs of persistent strong wage growth, which would be the bigger concern for the longer-term inflation outlook.”

                          Full release here.

                          GBP/CHF extending near term fall as BoE awaited

                            Today’s BoE meeting is, as new BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill described, “live” and “finely balanced”. There is a thin majority of economists expecting no change. But market pricing suggests that a hike is not really a surprise. But in either case, the new economic projections, as well as voting would more likely be the things that move markets.

                            Here are some previews:

                            Sterling is generally soft ahead of BoE’ rate decision. GBP/CHF broke through 1.2467 support this week and resumed the whole decline from 1.3070. For now the structure of the fall suggests that it’s corrective in nature. Hence, even in case of deeper decline, we’d expect strong support from 1.2259 to contain downside and bring rebound.

                            Nevertheless, while break of 1.2541 minor resistance will bring recovery, break of 1.2759 resistance is needed to signal a near term bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at best.

                            BoJ Kuroda: YCC to continue even after the pandemic

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said his met with new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida today, and discussed Japan, global economies and financial markets .

                              Kuroda said he explained BoJ’s monetary policy to Kishida, and reiterated the aim to achieve 2% inflation target. When asked about Fed’s tapering, he explained that BoJ is in different situation from western central banks.

                              Also, Kuroda said that yield curve control will continue even after the pandemic is contained.

                              Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in Sep, down a record -4.4% qoq in Q3

                                Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom, 1.7% yoy in September. For the quarter, sales dropped a record -4.4% qoq.

                                Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics said: “The Delta outbreak from late June led to protracted lockdowns in many mainland jurisdictions, with the restrictions causing many retailers to close their physical stores throughout the September quarter. This resulted in the largest quarterly fall in national sales volumes ever recorded.”

                                Full release here.

                                Also released, goods and services exports dropped -6% mom to AUD 44.97B in September. Goods and services imports dropped -2% mom to AUD 32.73B. Trade surplus came in at AUD 12.24B, versus expectation of AUD 12.22B.

                                NASDAQ cleared one projection hurdle, targets 16582 next

                                  US stocks surged to new record highs overnight despite Fed’s tapering announcement. NASDAQ’s break of 61.8% projection of 13002.52 to 15403.43 from 14181.69 at 15665.44 is a sign that it’s in another acceleration phase. For now near term outlook will stay bullish as long as this week’s low at 15470.74 holds. Next target will be 100% projection at 16582.59.

                                  Fed chair Powell press conference live stream

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                                    Fed reduces net monthly treasury purchases by 10B, MBS by 5B, to lower at same pace ahead

                                      FOMC decided to start reducing monthly net asset purchase by USD 10B for treasury securities and USD 5B for MBS. That is, Fed will increase holdings of treasury securities by only USD 70B and MBS by USD 35B per month. Additionally, Fed will further lower net purchases of treasury securities to USD 60B and MBS to USD 30B per month in December.

                                      Fed expects “similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month” depending on the economic outlook.

                                      Also, Fed keeps federal funds rate target unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected.

                                      The decisions were unanimous.

                                      Full statement here.

                                      US oil inventories rose 3.3m barrels, WTI staying in sideway consolidation

                                        US commercial crude oil inventories rose 3.3m barrels in the week ending October 29, above expectation of 1.9m. At 434.1m barrels, oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -1.5m barrels. Distillate rose 2.2m barrels. Propane/propylene rose 0.4m barrels. Commercial petroleum inventories rose 0.6m barrels.

                                        WTI crude oil is staying in consolidation from 85.92 for the moment. Such consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 81.04 support holds. Break of 85.92 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 33.50 to 77.16 from 61.90 at 88.88. However, break of 81.04 will bring deeper correction to 55 day EMA (now at 77.12) before up trend resumption.

                                        US ISM services rose to 66.7 in Oct, corresponds to 6.1% annualized GDP growth

                                          US ISM Services PMI rose to 66.7 in October, up from 61.9, well above expectation of 62.0. Business activity/production rose from 62.3 to 69.8. New orders rose from 63.5 to 69.7. Employment dropped from 53.0 to 51.6. Supplier delivers rose from 68.8 to 75.5. Prices rose from 77.5 to 82.9.

                                          ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for October (66.7 percent) corresponds to a 6.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                          Full release here.