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Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 53.2 in Oct, record business optimism

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    ActionForex
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    Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.2 in October, up from September’s 51.5. Markit said there were renewed rises in output and new orders. Input prices and output charges rose at quickest rate in over 13 years. Business optimism accelerated to series-record high.

    Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “October PMI data pointed to a stronger expansion in the Japanese manufacturing sector at the start of the fourth quarter… Overall, the headline Manufacturing PMI was at its highest reading since April and the second-highest in the year to date…

    “Material shortages and delivery delays induced sharp rises in input prices, as average cost burdens rose at the sharpest pace since August 2008. This contributed to higher charges for clients in attempts to cover margins, with factory gate inflation quickening to a 13-year high..

    “Confidence about the outlook reached the highest level since the series began in July 2012, as hopes that the end of the pandemic would stimulate a broad market recovery gathered pace. This is broadly in line with the IHS Markit forecast for industrial production to grow 7.1% this year and 4.3% in 2022.”

    Full release here.

    Australia AiG manufacturing dropped to 50.4, but encouraged by rise in new orders

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      ActionForex
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      Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -0.8 to 50.4 in October. That’s the fourth consecutive month of decline and lowest reading since September 2020. Looking at some details, production dropped -5.3 to 47.8. Employment rose 0.9 to 48.0. New orders rose 6.3 to 58.3. Exports dropped -5.8 to 46.1. Input prices rose 3.7 to 81.8. Selling prices dropped -0.8 to 63.9. Average wages rose 10.8 to 63.7.

      Ai Group Chief Executive Innes Willox said: “Although restrictions began to be eased, vaccination rates rose and the country edged towards a living with COVID approach, the year-long run of improving manufacturing performance was put on hold in October…. Although October was nothing to write home about, manufacturers will be encouraged by the sharp lift in new orders received and by the further progress towards removing COVID restrictions.

      Full release here.

      US personal income dropped -1.0% mom in Sep, spending rose 0.6% mom

        By
        ActionForex
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        US personal income dropped -1.0% mom or USD 216.2B in September, much worse than expectation of 0.1% mom rise. Personal spending rose 0.6% mom or USD 93.4B, matched expectations. Headline PCE inflation accelerated to 4.4% yoy, below expectation of 4.7% yoy. Core PCE price index was unchanged at 3.6% yoy, below expectation of 3.7% yoy.

        Full release here.

        Canada GDP grew 0.4% mom in Aug, to be flat in Sep

          By
          ActionForex
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          Canada GDP rose 0.4% mom in August, below expectation of 0.7% mom. Overall 15 of 20 industrial sectors were up. Services-producing industries rose 0.6%. Goods-producing industries dropped -0.1% Preliminary information suggests that real GDP was essentially unchanged in September. Advance estimate points to an approximate 0.5% rise in real GDP in Q3.

          Full release here.

          Eurozone CPI surged to 4.1% yoy in Oct, highest since 2008

            By
            ActionForex
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            Eurozone CPI surged to 4.1% yoy in October, up from 3.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.7% yoy. That’s also the fastest pace since July 2008. CPI core rose to 2.1% yoy, up from 1.9% yoy, above expectation of 1.9% yoy.

            Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (23.5%, compared with 17.6% in September), followed by services (2.1%, compared with 1.7% in September), non-energy industrial goods (2.0%, compared with 2.1% in September) and food, alcohol & tobacco (2.0%, stable compared with September).

            Full release here.

            Eurozone GDP grew 2.2% qoq in Q3, EU up 2.1% qoq

              By
              ActionForex
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              Eurozone GDP grew 2.2% qoq in Q3, slightly above expectation of 2.1% qoq. EU GDP grew 2.1% qoq. Among the EU Member States for which data are available, Austria (+3.3%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by France (+3.0%) and Portugal (+2.9%). The lowest growth was recorded in Latvia (+0.3%) and GDP was stable in Lithuania (0.0%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

              Full release here.

              Germany GDP grew 1.8% qoq in Q3, below expectations

                By
                ActionForex
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                Germany GDP grew only 1.8% qoq in Q3, below expectation of 2.2% qoq. Overall GDP was still -1.1% lower (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) than in the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the coronavirus crisis began.

                Full release here.

                Swiss KOF dropped slightly to 110.7, almost unchanged overall movement

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped slightly from 111.0 to 110.7 in October, better than expectation of 108.0. KOF said: “Indicator bundles of the food and beverage industry have improved clearly and are contrasted by declines in indicator bundles of manufacturing, the economic sector other services, foreign demand and the financial and insurance services, resulting in an almost unchanged overall movement.”

                  Full release here.

                  France GDP grew 3.0% qoq in Q3, almost back to pre-crisis level

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    France GDP rose 3.0% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 2.4% qoq. GDP has almost returned to pre-crisis level, just -0.1% below Q4 2019 level.

                    Final internal demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+3.3 points, after +1.5 points in Q2): in particular, households’ consumption expenditure accelerated very strongly (+5.0% after +1.3%), and contributed for +2.5 points to GDP growth this quarter. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was almost stable (-0.1% after +2.5% in the previous quarter).

                    Exports accelerated this quarter (+2.3% after +1.2% in the previous quarter) while imports were stable (–0.1% after +1.7%). Foreign trade remained largely below its pre-crisis level, but its contribution to GDP growth was positive this quarter: +0.6 points, after –0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative this quarter (–0.9 points after +0.0 points in the previous quarter).

                    Full release here.

                    Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in Sep, vary by state

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in September, much better than expectation of 0.2% mom. That’s the first monthly growth since May. For the 12-month, sales rose 1.7% yoy.

                      “Retail turnover continues to vary by state, based on whether restrictions were imposed, removed or extended. Queensland sales rose to their highest level ever, up 5.2 per cent, with no lockdowns in September,” Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics said.

                      “New South Wales also experienced a rise of 2.3 per cent despite having lockdowns, as some restrictions were eased or lifted. However, turnover for New South Wales remains 11.9 per cent lower than May 2021, the month before the most recent lockdown began.”

                      Full release here.

                      Also released, PPI came in at 1.1% qoq, 2.9% qoq in Q3, versus expectation of 0.6% qoq, 3.2% yoy. Price sector credit rose 0.6% mom in September, matched expectations.

                      Japan industrial production dropped -5.4% mom in Sep, but expected to bounce back strongly ahead

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Japan industrial production dropped sharply by -5.4% mom in September, much worse than expectation of -2.4% mom. The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines dropped for the third straight month to 89.5, against the 2015 100 base of 100.

                        But looking ahead, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said output would bounce back by 6.4% in October, and then 5.7% in November, based on a poll of manufacturers. An official said, “output may have hit bottom in September since economic activities have been returning to normal in countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia since late September, and a recovery is expected, mainly in the auto industry.”

                        Also released, unemployment was unchanged at 2.8% in September, matched expectations. Housing starts rose 4.3% yoy, versus expectation of 7.5% yoy. Consumer confidence dropped to 39.2, below expectation of 40.4. In October, Tokyo CPI core was unchanged at 0.10% yoy, below expectation of 0.3% yoy.

                        US GDP grew 2.0% annualized in Q3, missed expectations

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          US GDP grew 2.0% annualized in Q3, below expectation of 2.6%. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

                          Full release here.

                          US initial jobless claims dropped to 281k, continuing claims down to 2.24m

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -10k to 281k in the week ending October 23, slightly better than expectation of 289k. That’s the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -21k to 299k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                            Continuing claims dropped -237k to 2243k in the week ending October 16, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -142k to 2513k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB Lagarde press conference live stream

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                              ActionForex
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                              ECB stands pat, continues PEPP with moderately lower pace

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                ECB kept monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. The interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The forward guidance is maintained.

                                That is, “the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.”

                                PEPP purchases will continue with a total envelop of EUR 1850B, until at least end of March 2022. The pace of net asset purchases will remain “moderately lower” than in Q2 and Q3. APP purchases will continue at a monthly pace of EUR 20B too.

                                Full statement here.

                                Eurozone economic sentiment indicator rose to 118.6, EU ESI rose to 117.6

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 118.6 in October, up from 117.8, above expectation of 116.9. Employment Expectations Indicator rose from 113.4 to 114.5. Industrial confidence rose from 14.1 to 14.2. Services confidence rose from 15.2 to 18.2. Consumer confidence dropped from -4.0 to -4.8. Retail trade confidence rose from 1.4 to 2.0. Construction confidence rose from 7.5 to 8.9.

                                  EU ESI rose from 116.6 to 117.6. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI rose in Spain (+2.5), France (+2.1), Italy (+1.8), Poland (+1.5) and the Netherlands (+1.4), while it weakened slightly in Germany (-0.5).

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoJ Kuroda: Yen’s recent weakening is definitely positive

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    In the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “the yen’s recent weakening, as a whole, is definitely positive for Japan’s economy. It’s good for exports and lifts the yen-based profits firms earn overseas. It more than offsets the negative impact from rising import costs.”

                                    “At present, currency rates are moving in line with fundamentals,” he said. “I therefore see no problems with the moves”. He added, “there’s no pre-set norm on the desirable level of real, effective exchange rates. I won’t comment on specific levels.”

                                    “In the long run, if growth accelerates and the output gap turns positive, we’ll likely see inflation accelerate and heighten inflation expectations,” Kuroda said. “Under current conditions, there are more merits than demerits in maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy.”

                                    ECB to stand pat, some previews

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      ECB is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today. The central bank might shed some light on asset purchases after the end of the emergency program PEPP next March. But the details on what to follow will only be revealed at the December meeting, together with new economic projections. There are some expectations that the flexibility of the original APP would be increased, but this is far from being certain.

                                      There are also speculations of an earlier rate hike, with market pricing it to happen by 2022 year end. But President Christine Lagarde would likely talk down such expectations. Instead, ECB would just reiterate that the policy rates would “remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon and judges that realized progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilizing at 2% over the medium term”.

                                      Some previews on ECB:

                                      Markets expect earlier RBA rate hike as it let yield surge

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Australian bond yields surge sharply today after RBA skipped the asset purchases to defend the 0.10% April 2024 yield target. Yield on April 2024 AGS more than doubled to above 0.5%. Meanwhile, 3-year AGS yield extended recent rally and accelerated to as high as 1.19%.

                                        The development prompted speculations that RBA would change its forward guidance to indicate that conditions for rate hike could come earlier than 2024. Westpac said it now confirm its expectation that RBA hike would come in February 2023. CBA is expecting a November 2022 hike while ANZ is forecasting a hike in H2 of 2023.

                                        Separately, RBA Deputy Governor Guy DeBelle told the Senate today, “the monetary policy settings we have in place, as do other central banks around the world, are looking to generate a little higher inflation than we have seen over the last five, six years, as well generate more jobs.” Nevertheless, he added, “a little bit more inflation is welcome, a lot more inflation isn’t.”

                                        BoJ stands pat, downgrades 2021 GDP and CPI forecasts

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged today as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.1%. 10-year yield target is maintained at around 0%, with JGB purchases without upper limit. It also reiterated that BoJ will continue with QQE with YCC “as long as it is necessary” for maintaining inflation at 2% target in a stable manner. It will also continue expanding the monetary base core CPI exceeds 2% and stays above in a stable manner.

                                          Economic projections comparing to July forecast:

                                          • Fiscal 2021 GDP growth downgraded from 3.8% to 3.4%.
                                          • Fiscal 2022 GDP growth upgraded from 2.7% to 2.9%.
                                          • Fiscal 2023 GDP growth unchanged at 1.3%.
                                          • Fiscal 2021 CPI core downgraded from 0.6% to 0.0%.
                                          • Fiscal 2022 CPI core unchanged at 0.9%.
                                          • Fiscal 2023 CPI core unchanged at 1.0%.

                                          Full statement here.

                                          Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.

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