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SECO downgrades Swiss 2021 GDP forecast to 3.2%

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    ActionForex
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    SECO downgraded Swiss GDP growth forecast to 3.2% in 2021, comparing to June forecast of 3.6%. Growth is projected to further accelerate to 3.4% in 2022. It added that “the economic recovery is set to continue as expected, though growth is initially less dynamic than forecast previously.” Nevertheless, “economic activity is likely to have exceeded pre-crisis levels during the summer.”

    SECO added, “highly exposed sectors such as international tourism are likely to emerge from the crisis more hesitantly”. But, “provided that severely restrictive measures such as business lockdowns are not imposed in the coming months, the economic recovery should continue uninterrupted.”

    Full release here.

    Japan exports grew 26.2% yoy in Aug, imports rose 44.7% yoy

      By
      ActionForex
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      Japan’s exports grew 26.2% yoy to JPY 6605B in August. That’s the sixth straight month of double-digit annual growth, as boosted by strong demand for chip-making equipment. By destination, exports to China, the largest trading partner, grew 12.6% yoy. Exports to Asia as a whole rose 26.1% yoy. Exports to the US rose 22.8% yoy. Exports to EU rose 29.9% yoy.

      Imports jumped 44.7% yoy to JPY 7241B, due to stronger demand for fuel and medical goods. Trade balance came in at JPY -635B deficit, the largest shortfall since December 2021.

      In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 0.8% mom to JPY 7104B. Imports rose 4.6% mom to JPY 7276B. Trade deficit came in at JPY -272B versus expectation of JPY 80B surplus.

      Full release here.

      Australia employment dropped -146.3k in Aug, people also dropping out of labor force

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        Australia employment dropped -146.3k in August, even worse than expectation of -70.0k. Full-time jobs dropped -68k while part-time jobs dropped -78.2k.

        Unemployment rate, on the other hand, dropped -0.1% to 4.6%, versus expectation 4.9%. But that’s due to a sharp fall in participation rate by -0.8% to 65.2%. Monthly hours worked dropped -66m hours or -3.7% mom.

        Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “The fall in the unemployment rate reflects a large fall in participation during the recent lockdowns, rather than a strengthening in labour market conditions.

        “Throughout the pandemic we have seen large falls in participation during lockdowns — a pattern repeated over the past few months. Beyond people losing their jobs, we have seen unemployed people drop out of the labour force, given how difficult it is to actively look for work and be available for work during lockdowns.

        Full release here.

        New Zealand GDP grew 2.8% qoq in Q2, well above expectation

          By
          ActionForex
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          New Zealand GDP grew 2.8% qoq in Q2, well above expectation of 1.2% qoq. Growth was led by service industries, which rose 2.8% qoq. Primary industries rose 5.0% qoq. Goods producing industries rose 1.3% qoq.

          “The June 2021 quarter experienced fewer COVID-19 restrictions than previous quarters affected by COVID-19. Many industries experienced activity at or above pre-COVID-19 levels, while some remained below,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said.

          Full release here.

          ECB Lane: Should emphasize persistence, not volume of asset purchases

            By
            ActionForex
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            ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a webinar, “it’s not a good idea to identify the monetary policy stance with the volume of asset purchases.” Instead, “the efficient approach is to emphasize persistence.”

            “We’re happy that our monetary accommodation is strengthening the underlying inflation dynamic and over time — this will continue to build. We have a coherent policy setting,” he added.

            BoJ Kuroda: Inflation will eventually reach 2% target, but not before 2023

              By
              ActionForex
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              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated in an online seminar, “Japan’s economy will recover as the impact of COVID-19 wane due to further progress in vaccinations.”

              “We expect that inflation rate will steadily go up and eventually reach 2% target, although not before 2023,” he said.

              He also pledged, “if necessary, we will further relax our monetary policy”.

              Canada CPI jumped to 4.1% yoy in Aug, highest since 2003

                By
                ActionForex
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                Canada CPI accelerated further from 3.7% yoy to 4.1% yoy in August, above expectation of 3.9% yoy. That’s also the fastest pace since March 2003. Statistics Canada said the increase mainly stems from an accumulation of recent price pressures and from lower price levels in 2020.

                Looking at some more details, CPI common rose from 1.7% yoy to 1.8% yoy, above expectation of 1.7% yoy. CPI median was unchanged at 2.6% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose from 3.1% yoy to 3.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.1% yoy.

                Full release here.

                Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% mom in Jul, EU up 1.4% mom

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% mom in July, above expectation of 0.5% mom. For the month, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.5%, capital goods by 2.7%, durable consumer goods by 0.6% and intermediate goods by 0.4%, while production of energy fell by 0.6%.

                  EU industrial production rose 1.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+7.8%), Belgium (+5.0%) and Portugal (+3.5%). The largest decreases were observed in Lithuania (-2.0%), Slovenia (-1.8%) and Croatia (-1.6%).

                  Full release here.

                  Ifo: Germany inflation to hit 3% this year, fall back to 2-2.5% next

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Ifo said inflation in Germany could hit as high as 3% this year. That could be explained by “accelerated increase in prices over the course of 2021” in apparent in energy, food, and some service industries.

                    Inflation is expected to slow to 2.0-2.5% next year. But Head of Forecasts Timo Wollmershäuser said: “At the beginning of 2022, the special factors that have been driving inflation will peter out: it will be a year since the reduction in VAT was reversed and energy prices reached their pre-crisis levels,”

                    Separately, ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, “ECB is monitoring the inflation performance closely but we are not seeing any second-round impacts.”

                    UK CPI surged from 2% to 3.2% yoy in Aug, largest monthly leap on record

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      UK CPI surged to 3.2% yoy in August, up from 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. That sharp 1.2% jump in CPI was the highest leap recorded, but ONS said “this is likely to be a temporary change. CPI core rose to 3.1% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. RPI also rose to 4.8% yoy, up from 3.8% yoy, above expectation of 4.6% yoy.

                      Also released, PPI input came in at 0.4% mom, 11.0% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 10.3% yoy. PPI output was at 0.7% mom, 5.9% yoy, versus expectation of 0.4% mom, 5.4% yoy. PPI core output was at 1.0% mom, 5.4% yoy.

                      Full CPI release here.

                      China retail sales grew only 2.8% yoy in Aug, way below expectation

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        China retail sales growth slowed sharply to 2.8% yoy in August , down from July’s 8.5% yoy, well below expectation of 7.1% yoy. China industrial production growth slowed further to 5.3% yoy, below expectation of 5.8% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 8.9% ytd yoy, below expectation of 9.1%.

                        In a released, the National Bureau of Statistics said, “generally speaking, in August, the national economy maintained the trend of recovery. However, we must be aware that the international environment is still complicated and severe. At home, it has been felt that the sporadic outbreak of COVID-19 and natural disasters such as floods had caused impact on the economy, and the foundation for the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated”.

                        OECD downgrades Australia growth forecast, urges broad RBA review

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          In the latest Economy Survey of Australia, OECD downgraded the country’s GDP growth to 4.0% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, from May’s forecast of 5.1% and 3.4% respectively. It said the upcoming post-restriction recovery may be “more gradual than in past episodes”, as it will “occur in an environment of higher virus transmission”. COVID-19 outbreaks in other states than New South Wales and Victoria, could deepen the economic shock. “Any ratcheting up of tensions with China could further weaken trade activity.”

                          OECD also pointed out that underlying inflation has undershot RBA’s target band for an extended period of time. It suggested that RBA should “conduct a monetary policy framework review that is broad in scope, transparent and involves consultation with a wide variety of relevant stakeholders.”

                          In response, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, “it’s something I will give consideration to in terms of looking at the RBA, looking at the monetary policy settings and learning from the experience through the pandemic. The RBA has performed very well through this crisis, its policy response has been in sync and coordinated with the government’s fiscal response.”

                          OECD press release, blog post, and report.

                          Australia Westpac consumer sentiment rose to 106.2, strong resilient despite lockdown

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Australia Westpac-MI consumer sentiment rose 2.0% to 106.2 in September. The index remained comfortably above the levels five years prior to the pandemic. Confidence in New South Wales rose 5.3% while Victoria was steady at 104.1, despite extended lockdown in both states. Queensland jumped 8.4% to 111.6. Overall, the data indicates strong resilience of consumer sentiment and positives reactions to vaccination progresses.

                            Westpac added that given that RBA has already defer the next review of the asset purchase program to February, it’s highly unlikely that there will be any policy changes before that meeting. Nevertheless, it added, “with the US Federal Reserve likely to have begun its tapering program by then and the economy likely to be bouncing back as high vaccination levels see easing restrictions, we expect the Board to further taper its bond purchases in February.”

                            Full release here.

                            Gold breaks above 1800, finished correction?

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Gold’s break of 1803.61 resistance suggests that correction from 1833.79 has completed at 1779.44. 38.2% retracement of 1682.60 to 1833.79 was well defended, maintaining near term bullishness. Further rise is now in favor to retest 1832.47/1833.79 resistance zone. Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed too. Further rally would then be seen to 1916.30 resistance for confirmation.

                              Canada manufacturing sales dropped -1.5% mom in July

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Canada manufacturing sales dropped -1.5% mom to CAD 59.6b in July, worse than expectation of -1.0% mom. Sales were down in 12 of 21 industries, led by the wood product (-21.8%), aerospace product and parts (-19.0%), miscellaneous (-12.1%) and petroleum and coal product (-2.3%) industries.

                                The declines were partially offset by higher sales in the motor vehicles (+13.5%), primary metal (+3.9%) and motor vehicle parts (+7.6%) industries.

                                Full release here.

                                US core CPI slowed for the second month to 4.0% yoy in Aug, missed expectations

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  US headline CPI rose 0.3% mom, in August, below expectation of 0.4% mom. CPI core rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the 12 months, headline CPI slowed to 5.3% yoy, down from 5.4% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core slowed to 4.0% yoy, down from 4.3% yoy, missed expected of 4.2% yoy. That’s indeed the second straight month of decline in core CPI.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Bundesbank Weidmann: A gradual approach makes sense in digital Euro

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said a “gradual approach” might make sense in digital Euro given the risks involved. “That means a digital euro with a specific set of features and the option to add further functionalities later,” he added.

                                    In particular, he warned that in times of crises, consumers could rush to covert bank deposits to central bank money. That would destabilize the financial system.

                                    UK unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, employment rate rose to 75.2%

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      UK unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.7% to 4.6% in the three months to July. That’s still 0.6% higher than pre-pandemic level. Employment rate rose to 75.2% but remains -1.3% below pre-pandemic level. Average earnings including bonus rose 8.3% 3moy, below expectation of 8.6%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.8% 3moy, also below expectation of 7.3%. Claimant count dropped -58.6k in August, versus expectation of -71.7k.

                                      Full release here.

                                      RBA Lowe explains tapering asset purchases while extending the program

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        In a speech, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said, “n the economy, our central message is that the Delta outbreak has delayed – but not derailed – the recovery of the Australian economy”. While the outbreak is a “significant setback”, there is a “clear path out of the current difficulties”.

                                        Lowe provided some explanations to the decision to taper weekly asset purchases to AUD 4B, but extend the program till February next year. Firstly, give the delay in recovery, “we considered it appropriate that we delay any consideration of a further taper in our bond purchases until next year.” Continuing the with purchases will also “provide some additional insurance against downside scenarios.”

                                        Secondly, fiscal policy is considered the “more effective policy instrument in responding to the Delta outbreak.” Public balance sheet can be used to “offset the hit to private incomes during the lockdown”. But monetary policy “works mainly on the demand side and the effects on income are felt with a lag”.

                                        Thirdly, “by continuing to purchase government bonds at the rate of $4 billion a week we will be adding to the support provided to the economy during the recovery phase.”

                                        Lowe also reiterated that the condition for lifting interest rate will “not be met before 2024”. A “tighter labor market” is needed to meet the condition, with wages growing by “at least 3 per cent”, comparing to the 1.7% yoy rate in Q2.

                                        Full speech here.

                                        Australia NAB business confidence rose to -5, resilience and well positioned to rebound

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Australia NAB business confidence rose slightly from -7 to -5 in August. Business conditions improved from 10 to 14. Looking at some details, trading condition rose from 12 to 19. Profitability condition rose from 5 to 15. Employment condition, however, dropped from 11 to 9.

                                          NAB said, “while the sustained lockdowns now in place will cause a large hit to activity in the quarter, the resilience seen in the August survey results suggest that the supports in place, and lingering momentum from earlier in the year, are continuing to support the economy”.

                                          “There are also signs that progress on the vaccine rollout and growing certainty that lockdowns will end in coming months are providing a reason for optimism. The economy remains well positioned to rebound once restrictions are eased.”

                                          Full release here.

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