Sun, Dec 21, 2025 @ 10:06 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 371

Live Comments

Latest

OPEC: Oil demand recovery delayed in to H1 2022

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    In the monthly oil market report, OPEC revised down Q4 oil demand forecasts to average 99.70m bpd, down 110k bpd from last months’ projections. For 2022, Overall, global oil demand would rise by 5.96m bpd in the whole of 2021. Demand growth forecasts for 2022 was revised from 3.28m bpd to 4.1m bpd.

    It said the “increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fueled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year.” As a result, “second-half 2021 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the oil demand recovery into first-half 2022.”

    “The pace of recovery in oil demand is now assumed to be stronger and mostly taking place in 2022,” OPEC said. “As vaccination rates rise, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will firmly return to pre-COVID-19 levels.”

    Full report here.

    ECB Schnabel: Premature tightening would choke the recovery

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      In a speech, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said inflation in Eurozone is “likely to ease noticeably next year”. She warned that “a premature monetary policy tightening in response to a temporary rise in inflation would choke the recovery and be most harmful to those who are already suffering from the current spike in inflation.”

      Also she said, “there are good reasons to assume that the current constellation of fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area may finally chart the path out of the low interest rate environment.”

      Full speech here.

      BoE Hauser: Balance sheet will be structurally larger even after QE unwind

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        BoE Executive Director Andrew Hauser said in a speech, the central bank balance sheets will be “structurally larger”, comparing to the start of the millennium, even after current QE program unwind. Central will need to meet at “bigger share of the structurally higher demand for liquidity; and contemplate possible Central Bank Digital Currencies.”.

        Also, the balance sheets will be “more variable as lower global interest rates and a broader liquidity insurance toolkit mean balance sheets play a more active countercyclical role.”.

        Full speech here.

        Germany likely to have a noticeable jump in output in Q3

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Germany’s Economy Ministry said in its monthly report that “there will likely be a noticeable increase in economic output in the current third quarter.” Nevertheless, there were also signs of normalization of growth in Q4. Also, the spread of new variants of COVID-19 could cloud the outlook.

          GDP grew only 1.6% qoq in Q2, as constrained by shortage of semiconductor chips and other intermediate goods.

          Japan corporate goods price ticked down to 5.5% yoy, wholesale inflation will remain under upward pressure

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            Japan’s corporate goods price index slowed slightly to 5.5% yoy in August. But it was close to July’s 5.6% yoy, which was the highest reading since September 2008. Also, at 105.8, the index marked the highest level since 1982.

            Shigeru Shimizu, head of the BoJ’s price statistics division, said, “as the global economy continues to recover thanks to progress in vaccinations, domestic wholesale inflation will remain under upward pressure, though there’s uncertainty over the outlook due to a resurgence in infections.”

            NZIER revised up inflation forecast, NZD to remain elevated for coming years

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              In NZIER’s September survey, consensus forecast for 2021/22 GDP was revised down from 5.0% to 4.5%. But 2022/23 GDP forecast for 2022/23 was revised up from 3.7% to 4.5%. The revision likely reflects the impact of the current COVID-19 outbreak. GDP is forecast to grow 2.3% in 2023/24 (revised down from 2.6%), then pick up to 2.7% in 2024/25.

              Inflation forecasts were revised up sharply from 2.1% to 3.5% in 2021/22, up from 1.9% to 2.0% in 2022/23. It’s unchanged at 2.2% in 2023/24 and expected to be steady at 2.2% in 2024/25. NZIER said, “Capacity pressures continue to build up across the New Zealand economy, as acute labour shortages and COVID-related supply chain disruptions drive up cost pressures further. Solid demand has made it easier for businesses to pass these costs onto customers by raising prices.”

              The NZD outlook is mixed with trade-weighted index revised lower in the near term. However, NZIER said, “expectations are for the currency to remain elevated over the coming years,” as RBNZ rate hike expectations improved yield attractiveness.

              Full release here.

              New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -6.8, showing resilience

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                In the preliminary September read, New Zealand ANZ Business confidence rose to -6.8, up from August’s -14.2. Own Activity outlook dropped to 18.2, down from 19.2. Looking at some more details, export intentions dropped from 7.4 to 5.7. Investment intentions dropped from 14.4 to 12.2. Employment intentions dropped from 17.0 to 14.7. Inflation expectations ticked lower from 3.05 to 2.97.

                ANZ said the report showed “resilience” despite lockdown in Auckland, with most forward-looking activity indicators holding up well. ANZ said, “We examined a split between Auckland and the rest of the country but the differences were very small.”

                “Overall, the preliminary ANZ Business Outlook results suggest that firms can see light at the end of the tunnel, even in Auckland. We can do this, it said”.

                Full release here.

                Fed Harker: I’d like to start tapering soon to buy ourselves option

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in a Nikkei interview that he’d like to start tapering asset purchases. He sees “elevated risk” of inflation running higher.

                  He said, “my baseline forecast is still to have inflation around 4% this year, ending this year, and then starting to fall back to 2% over the years 2022 and 2023. However, I do see elevated risk that inflation could run higher”.

                  “I’d like to start the taper process soon, so that we can finish the tapering process, so if we need to increase the policy rate, we have the room to do that. And I think we need to buy ourselves that option,” he added.

                  SNB Zurbruegg: Negative interest rates still needed due to the situation globally

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    SNB Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said in a Sonntagszeitung interview over the weekend, “at the moment we need the negative interest rates due to the situation globally.” He warned, “if we were to hike interest rates now, the franc would appreciation markedly, economic growth would slow and joblessness would increase.” He also noted that the pickup in inflation in Switzerland is “temporary”. In the medium term, “we expect it to stay low,” he said.

                    President Thomas Jordan remains on leave on medical grounds and there is no return date yet. Zurbregg said finding a successor for Jordan “isn’t a topic”. “Thomas Jordan will take up his post again.”

                     

                    NIESR expects UK GDP growth to pick up to 0.7% in Aug and 0.8% in Sep

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Despite weaker than expected 0.1% monthly GDP growth in UK, NIESR expects growth to pic up in August to 0.7%, followed by 0.8% in September. That would lead to overall 1.6% growth in Q3. It added that however, there are “notable downside risks” to a consumption led recovery, including the re-emergence of Covid-19 and the response of household and business spending to the end of the furlough scheme and the planned reduction in Universal Credit.

                      “GDP growth of under 0.1 per cent in July would have been negative had it not been for the reopening of an oil field previously closed for temporary maintenance. There was also relatively good news for the arts and recreation sector, thanks to the lifting of restrictions on 19th July, but clearly the boost to GDP from reopening had slowed by the summer. The Delta variant and supply issues – some but not all of which are linked to Covid-19 – have also provided headwinds to growth in the third quarter but there remains potential for ‘catch-up’ in transport, hospitality and arts, which remained between 7 and 19 per cent below their February 2020 levels.” Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting.

                      Full release here.

                      US PPI rose 0.7% mom 8.3% yoy in Aug, record 12-month rise

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US PPI for final demand rose 0.7% mom in August, above expectation of 0.6% mom. For the 12 months ended in August, PPI rose 8.3% yoy, accelerated from 7.8%, matched expectations. That’s the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in 2010.

                        PPI for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% mom. For the 12 months, PPI rose 6.3% yoy, also the largest advance since the data was first calculated in 2014.

                        Full release here.

                        Canada employment grew 90.2k in Aug, unemployment rate dropped to 7.1%

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Canada Employment grew 90.2k in August, well above expectation of 67.2k. That’s the third consecutive monthly rise. Also, employment is within -0.8% of pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Job growth were concentrated in full-time work, which rose 69k. Unemployment rate dropped to 7.1%, down from 7.5%, better than expectation of 7.4%, lowest since February 2020 too.

                          Full release here.

                          UK GDP grew just 0.1% mom in Jul, -2.1% below pre-pandemic level

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            UK GDP grew just 0.1% mom in July, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Overall, the economy remains -2.1% below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. For the month, production output grew 1.2% mom while manufacturing was flat services was broadly flat, and construction was down -1.6% mom. Output in consumer-facing services dropped -0.3% mom, first decline since January

                            Also released good trade deficit widened slightly to GBP -12.7B in July, worse than expectation of GBP -10.9B

                            Full GDP released here.

                            BoC Macklem: Transition to reinvestment phase will be gradual, proceed in measured steps

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech yesterday, “as the recovery progresses, we are moving closer to a time when continuing to add stimulus through QE will no longer be necessary.” But, “we are not there yet,” he added. “Timing is a monetary policy decision that will depend on economic developments.”

                              BoC is still adding stimulus with the CAD 2B per week QE purchases. Macklem said, “when we get to the reinvestment phase, we will adjust the level of our bond purchases to maintain the Bank’s total holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly stable”. The transition to the reinvestment phase will be “gradual” and will “proceed in measured steps”. The timing of changes will be guided by the “evolving assessment of the outlook”.

                              Also, the change in purchase pace is “distinct” to the decision on raising interest rates. “It is reasonable to expect that when we reach the reinvestment phase, we will remain there for a period of time, at least until we raise the policy interest rate,” he said.

                              Full speech here.

                              Fed Bowman looking at very robust growth and tapering this year

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said yesterday, “even though some of the recent data may have been less strong than we expected, we are still looking at very robust economic growth.”

                                “If the data comes in as I expect that it will, it will likely be appropriate for us to begin the process of scaling back our asset purchases this year,” she added.

                                “It is important not to take too much signal from a single data point as we might have seen last week from the labor market,” Bowman said.

                                ECB upgrades 2021 GDP forecasts to 5.0%, inflation to 2.2%

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  In the new economic projections ECB raised 2021 growth forecasts from 4.6% to 5.0%. For 2022, GDP growth is downgraded slightly form 4.7% to 4.6%. 2021 GDP growth was forecast was kept unchanged at 2.1%.

                                  Inflation forecast was revised slightly up, from 1.9% to 2.2% in 2021, from 1.5% to 1.7% in 2022, and from 1.4% to 1.5% in 2023.

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 310k, pandemic low

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped -35k to 310k in the week ending September 4, better than expectation of 343k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped 16.75k to 339.5k. Both were the lowest level since March 14, 2020.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -22k to 2783k in the week ending August 28, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -29k to 2840k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                                    Full release here.

                                    ECB President Lagarde press conference live stream

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -
                                      YouTube

                                      By loading the video, you agree to YouTube’s privacy policy.
                                      Learn more

                                      Load video

                                      ECB: Favorable financing conditions can be maintained with moderate lower pace of PEPP

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        ECB kept the envelope of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) unchanged at EUR 1850B, and will continue purchases until at least the end of March 2022. Nevertheless, the Governing Council now “judges that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP than in the previous two quarters.” ECB will now “purchase flexibly” according to market conditions, over time, across assets classes and among jurisdictions.

                                        Also, ECB kept main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate and deposit rate unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25%, and -0.50% respectively. Forward guidance is maintained, which imply a transitory period of overshoot. The regular asset purchase program will also continue at a monthly pace of EUR 20B.

                                        Full statement here.

                                        Fed Bostic: Recent weaker data suggests a chance for some play on tapering

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Atlanta President Raphael Bostic “as strong as the data was coming in the early part of the summer, I was really very much leaning into advocating for an earlier start than what many may have expected”.

                                          However, “the weaker data that we’ve seen more recently suggests to me that maybe there’s a chance for some play on this, but I still think that sometime this year is going to be appropriate” to taper.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2025 All rights reserved.