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Australia goods exports rose to record 41.3B in Jun

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    Australia exports of goods rose 8% mom or AUD 2.9B to AUD 41.3B in June. Imports of goods rose 7% mom or AUD 2.1B to AUD 28.0B. Goods trade surplus widened to record AUD 13.3B, up slightly from AUD 12.5B. Exports to top five destinations rose, including China (8%), Japan (21%), South Korea (24%), Taiwan (9%), USA (7%).

    Head of International Statistics at the ABS Andrew Tomadini said: “June 2021 recorded a monthly export value above $40 billion. Exports increased 8 per cent to $41.3 billion, with significant increases in metalliferous ores, coal, non-monetary gold, and gas”.

    Full release here.

    Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 17 in Q2, but condition rose sharply to 32

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 19 to 17 in Q2. Current business condition rose from 20 to 32. Business conditions for the next 3 months rose from 28 to 36. Business conditions for the next 12 months rose from 31 to 33. Capex plans for the next 12 months rose from 34 to 37.

      Looking at some more details, trading conditions rose from 26 to 38. Profitability rose from 22 to 32. Employment rose from 13 to 23. Forward orders rose from 14 to 23. Stocks rose from 5 to 11. Exports also improved from -1 to 0.

      According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist “Business conditions were still in negative territory in Q3 2020, and now, three quarters later, they were at a record high, a testament to how rapid the recovery has been from last year’s recession”.

      “A pleasing aspect of the survey is how broad-based the strength in conditions and confidence was – whether you look by industry or by state they are all above average, and in many cases well above.”

      Full release here.

      Gold back below 1800, but staying in range

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        Gold drops notably again today, and it’s back below 1800 handle at the time of writing. Though down is still contained above 1791.45 support. Focus will remain on this support level. As long as 1791.45 support, rebound from 1750.49 is still in favor to resume. Break of 1833.91 will target 61.8% retracement of 1916.30 to 1750.49 at 1852.96.

        However, firm break of 1791.45 would likely resume the decline from 1916.30. Further break of 1750.49 would confirm this bearish case and target 1676.65 support again.

        Australia Westpac leading index dropped to 1.34, RBA to use flexibility in asset purchases

          By
          ActionForex
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          Australia Westpac leading index slowed from 1.68% to 1.34% in June. The index peaked at 5% back in November last year and then gradually fallen back. It’s still comfortably above zero and signals outlook for above trend growth. Still, Westpac expected -3.1% contraction in GDP in Q3 in New South Wales and -0.1% in Victoria due to renewed lockdowns.

          Westpac added that RBA would be advised of significant downward revisions for Q3 growth at the meeting on August 3. It said it’s an “appropriate time” for RBA to use the “flexibility” on asset purchases. At the least it could announce to defer the tapering from AUD 5B to AUD 4B a week, which is scheduled to start in September. Further, “a decision to immediately lift purchases to $6 billion per week would certainly send the right signal that the Bank is responsive to economic developments and is prepared to use its new flexible policy tool accordingly.”

          Full release here.

          Australia retail sales dropped -1.8% mom in Jun on return to restrictions

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            According to preliminary estimate, Australia retail sales dropped -1.8% mom or AUD -515.1m in June 2021. Comparing to June 2020, sales rose 2.9% yoy. Victoria (-3.5 per cent) led the state falls in June, with the impact of the state’s fourth lockdown more pronounced in June than May (-0.9 per cent). New South Wales (-2.0 per cent) and Queensland (-1.5 per cent) also fell due to stay-at-home restrictions and reduced interstate mobility.

            Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said: “June’s fall in turnover was due to the impact of coronavirus restrictions across multiple states. Victoria saw restrictions from the start of the month, which were gradually eased from the 11th of June.  New South Wales, in particular Greater Sydney, saw stay-at-home orders issued towards the end of the month.  Other states and territories saw interrupted trade due to mini-lockdowns, as well as reduced mobility between states with the tightening of border restrictions.”

            Full release here.

            Japan exports rose 48.6% yoy in Jun, 4th month of double-digit growth

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              Japan’s exports rose 48.6% yoy to JPY 7220B in June. That;s the fourth straight month of double-digit growth, even though it’s largely exaggerated by the pandemic plunge last year. By destination, exports to China jumped 27.7% yoy, led by demand for chip-making equipment, raw materials and plastic. Exports to US also rose 85.5% yoy, driven by cars, auto parts and motors. Imports rose 32.7% yoy to JPY 6837B. Trade surplus came in at JPY 383B.

              In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 2.4% mom to JPY 7040B. Imports rose 4.0% mom to JPY 7130B. Trade balance turned into deficit of JPY 0.09T, versus expectation of JPY 0.02T surplus.

              BoJ Masayoshi: Inflation sluggish and powerful easing necessary

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya Masayoshi said speech, an uptrend in private consumption is expected to “become evident” as the impact of COVID-19 wanes gradually and employee income increases”. The “virtuous cycle” in the “corporate sector” will spread to the “household sector”, and “intensifying the cycle in the overall economy.” Nevertheless, the baseline scenario entails “high uncertainties” with risks “skewed to the downside” on the spread of variants. But activity could improve more than expected as vaccine rollout accelerates.

                Masayoshi also said that it will “take time” to achieve price stability target of 2% inflation. He added, “while the inflation rate has risen clearly of late in the United States and other countries, it has been sluggish in Japan.” Giver this, “it is necessary for the Bank to persistently continue to conduct powerful monetary easing with a view to achieving the price stability target.”

                Full speech here.

                 

                US building permits dropped to 1.598m in June, housing starts rose to 1.643m

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  US building permits dropped -5.1% mom to 1.598m annualized rate in June, below expectation of 1.690m. It’s nonetheless 23.3% above June 2020 rate of 1.296m.

                  Housing starts rose 6.3% mom to 1.643m annualized rate, above expectation of 1.590m. It’s also 29.1% above June 2020 level of 1.273m.

                  Full release here.

                  NZD/USD downside breakout, heading to 0.68 handle

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    NZD/USD finally follows other commodity currencies and breaks out to the downside today. Overall risk-off sentiments overwhelm speculations of RBNZ rate hike. Technically, fall from 0.7463 is seen as a correction to whole up trend from 0.5467. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7104 resistance holds. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7463 to 0.6942 from 0.7315 at 0.6794.

                    For now, we’d look for strong support around 38.2% retracement of 0.5467 to 0.7463 at 0.6701 to complete the correction. But we’ll keep monitoring downside momentum, as well as development in the risk markets closely, to reassess the outlook.

                    Eurozone current account surplus at EUR 12B in May

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Eurozone current account recorded EUR 12B surplus in May, down from April’s EUR 22B. In the 12 months to May, current account surplus amounted to EUR 310B (2.7% of Eurozone GDP), up from EUR 228B (2.0%) one year earlier.

                      In the financial account, Eurozone residents’ net acquisition of non-euro area portfolio investment securities totalled EUR 950B, in the 12 months to May. Non-residents’ net acquisitions of Eurozone area portfolio investment securities totalled EUR 187B.

                      Full release here.

                      US 10-year yield dropped to 1.18 on delta variant worries

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        As worries over the impact of delta variant grew, US stocks and treasury yields tumbled sharply overnight. Markets appeared to be pricing out some of the more optimistic growth scenarios for the quarters ahead. Instead, investors turned cautious as restrictions could still come back, which is happening in some countries like Australia already, even though the economy is more adapted to it after more than a year of “drills”.

                        10-year yield closed down -0.119 at 1.181, breaking 1.2 handle for the first time since February. The strong break of 38.2% retracement of 0.504 to 1.765 at 1.28 was a surprise to us, which indicates rather pessimistic developments too. The fall from 1.765 would now be targeting 61.8% retracement at 0.9857, which is close to 1% handle. We’d expect strong support from there to finish the correction, as we’re just back to reality.

                        RBA Minutes: Conditions for rate hike won’t be met until 2024

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          In the minutes of July 5 meeting, RBA reiterated that the “central scenario implied that the conditions for an increase in the cash rate would not be met until 2024”. However, “fast-than expected” recovery over the course of 2021 had “widened the range of alternative plausible scenarios for the economic outlook”, and thus, “the cash rate over the period to November 2024”. Hence, it decided to retain April 2024 bond as the target bond, rather than extending the horizon to November 2024 bonds.

                          On the decision on the size of weekly bond purchases, it noted that “the economic outcomes had been materially better than earlier expected and the outlook had improved”. And, “in light of these improvements and the agreed decision-making framework, members decided to adjust the weekly purchases from $5 billion to $4 billion and agreed to review the rate of purchases at the November 2021 meeting.”

                          Full minutes here.

                          DOW breaks 55 day EMA, heading back to 33271 support

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            DOW’s sharp fall in early trading pushed through 55 day EMA, as well as medium term channel support. The development firstly confirms rejection by 35091.56 high. Secondly, it suggests that corrective pattern from 35091 has started the third leg. Deeper decline would now be seen back to 33271.93 support. Reaction from there would be crucial in determining the medium term outlook.

                            Sustained break of 33271.93 would complete a double top reversal pattern. DOW would then be corrective the up trend from 26143.77 at least. Deeper fall would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 26143.77 to 35091.56 at 31673.50. We’ll see how DOW respond to 33271.93 support next.

                            BoE Haskel: Risk management considerations lean against pre emptive tightening

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said in a speech, “in the immediate term, the risk of a pre emptive monetary tightening curtailing the recovery continues to outweigh the risk of a temporary period of above target inflation. For the foreseeable future, in my view, tight policy isn’t the right policy.”

                              He also noted “two headwinds” over the coming months, the “highly transmissible Delta variant” and a “tightening of the fiscal stance”. “Against this backdrop, risk management considerations lean against a pre emptive tightening of monetary policy until we can be more sure the economy is recovering in a manner consistent with the sustained achievement of the inflation target,” he said.

                              Full speech here.

                              Bundesbank: German economic rose strongly in Q2, to be even stronger in Q3

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Bundesbank said in the latest monthly report, “the German economic output increased strongly again in the second quarter of 2021.”

                                “Provided that there are no significant setbacks with a view to the pandemic and the supply bottlenecks in the industry at least gradually decrease, the overall economic expansion rate is likely to be even stronger in the summer quarter,” it added.

                                Real GDP could finally reach pre-pandemic level again in Q3.

                                Full release here.

                                A look at EUR/CAD and AUD/CAD as Canadian Dollar dives

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Canadian Dollar tumbles broadly today as dragged by risk off sentiments, as well as the fall in oil price. WTI is pressing 70 handle after OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to boost production by 400k barrels a day, reversing some of the pandemic production cuts.

                                  EUR/CAD surges to as high as 1.5041 today as rebound from 1.4580 resumes and accelerates. Current development now suggest that whole pattern from 1.5991 has completed at 1.4580 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Next focus is 38.2% retracement of 1.5991 to 1.4580 at 1.5119. Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.5452 and above.

                                  As for AUD/CAD, focus is now on 0.9394 resistance. Firm break there and sustained trading above 55 day EMA confirm short term bottoming at 0.9245. That would also argue that correction form 0.9991 has completed after drawing support from 0.9247 key support level. Stronger rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9991 to 0.9245 at 0.9530, and then 61.8% retracement at 0.9706.

                                  AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY downside breakouts on risk aversion

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY break out to the downside on risk aversion in Asian markets. AUD/JPY’s fall from 85.78 resumed and hits as low as as 80.98 so far. Rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA is a near term bearish sign and outlook will stay bearish as long as 82.80 resistance.

                                    Immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 73.12 to 85.78 at 80.94, which is close to medium term channel support. Sustained break there will argue that the fall from 85.78 is indeed corrective whole up trend from 59.85. Deeper fall could then be seen back to 73.12/78.44 support next next.

                                    CAD/JPY also breaks through 87.08 support to resume the whole decline from 91.16. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 88.69 resistance holds. Current fall would target 38.2% retracement of 77.91 to 91.16 at 86.09. Reaction from there would unveil whether it’s correcting the rise from 77.91, or the whole up trend from 73.80.

                                    Hong Kong HSI gaps down after US warned of business risks

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Asian markets are trading broadly lower as led by Hong Kong HSI, which is down nearly -1.6% at the time of writing. In a late move last week, the US administration published a nine-page Hong Kong Business Advisory, jointly by the departments of State, Treasury, Commerce and Homeland Security. The document warned US firms of encountering a number of risks posed by China’s national security law in the city.

                                      Today’s gap down in HSI suggests that corrective rebound from 26861.87 could have completed at 28218.52 already. The failure to even touch 55 day EMA is a near term bearish sign. The index could at least have another test on 26782.61 key medium term resistance turned support. Such development to cap gains in other Asian markets, and give Yen additional support.

                                      US retail sales rose 0.6% in Jun, ex-auto sales rose 1.3%

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 621.3B in June, much better than expectation of -0.6% mom decline. Ex-auto sales rose 1.3% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.4% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 1.1% mom.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Eurozone exports rose 31.9% yoy in May, imports rose 35.2% yoy

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          In May, Eurozone exports rose 31.9% yoy to EUR 188.2B. Imports rose 35.2% yoy to EUR 180.7B. As a result Eurozone recorded a EUR 7.5B surplus in trade in goods. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 45.4% yoy to EUR 181.5B.

                                          In seasonally adjusted terms Eurozone exports dropped -1.5% mom to EUR 195.1B. imports rose 07% mom to EUR 185.8B. Trade surplus narrowed to EUR 9.4B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose to EUR 183.7B.

                                          Full release here.

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