UK CPI jumped to 2.5% yoy in Jun, highest since Aug 2018

    UK CPI surged to 2.5% yoy in June, up from 2.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. That’s also the highest reading since August 2018. Core CPI also rose to 2.3% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 2.0% yoy. RPI rose to 3.9% yoy, up from 3.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy.

    Also released, PPI input came in at -0.1% mom, 9.1% yoy in June, versus expectation of 1.2% mom, 10.8% yoy. PPI output was at 0.4% mom, 0.6% yoy, versus expectation of 4.3% mom, 4.8% yoy. PPI core output was at 0.3% mom, 2.7% yoy, versus expectation of 0.3% mom, 3.2% yoy.

    BoC to continue tapering, EUR/CAD range bound

      BoC is generally expected to continue with tapering today, reducing weekly asset purchases from CAD 3B to CAD 2B. It’s also expected to maintain the projection that first rate hike would happen in H2 of 2022. The focuses would be on new economic projections, in particular, on whether inflation forecasts would be up graded significantly.

      Here are some previews on BoC:

      Canadian Dollar’s reaction to BoC’s tapering hasn’t been positive so far. Outlook in EUR/CAD is unclear. Bullish convergence in daily MACD argues that medium term momentum is diminishing. Yet, it failed to sustain above the 55 day EMA, despite rebounding to 1.4913. Also, price actions from 1.4580 are more corrective looking than not. So, we’d see if today’s BoC announce could finally trigger deeper fall back towards 1.4580.

      Fitch affirms US rating at AAA with negative outlook

        Fitch Ratings affirmed US Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “AAA” with a “negative” outlook. It said, the rating is “supported by structural strengths that include the size of the economy, high per capita income and a dynamic business environment.” It’s “debt tolerance” is considered “higher” than that of other AAA sovereigns.

        The negative outlook reflects “ongoing risks to the public finances and debt trajectory, notwithstanding the improvement in Fitch’s fiscal and debt projections since its last review”. Key variables including “real interest rates and fiscal deficits may not follow the expected path, potentially creating downside risk.”

        Full release here.

        Australia Westpac consumer sentiment rose to 108.8 despite NSW lockdown

          Australia Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment rose 1.5% to 108.8 in July, up from 107.2. Confidence has “held up overall” despite a sharp fall in New South Wales, as Victoria and Western Australia recorded strong “bounce-backs”.

          Westpac said RBA is not expected announce any change at August 3 meeting. The focus would mainly be on the Statement on Monetary Policy on August 6. RBA would have a few more weeks to assess the impact of the lockdown in Sydney.

          Full release here.

          RBNZ halts asset purchases, NZD/JPY jumps

            RBNZ surprised the markets as it announced to halt the additional asset purchases under the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program by July 23. Meanwhile, OCR was kept unchanged at 0.25%. and the Funding for Lending Program was maintained. The Committee agreed that “the level of monetary stimulus could now be reduced to minimise the risk of not meeting its mandate.”

            The central bank said the economy “remains robust” despite ongoing impact from international border restrictions. Aggregate economic activity is already “above its pre-COVID-19 level”. It expected “near-term spikes” in headline CPI in Q2 and Q3, reflecting “one-off” or “temporary” factors. In the absence of any further significant shocks, “more persistent consumer price inflation pressure is expected to build over time due to rising domestic capacity pressures and growing labour shortages”.

            New Zealand Dollar jumps broadly after the surprised move by RBNZ. NZD/JPY is back above 77 handle after hitting 75.95 last week. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 80.17 are seen as a correction to rise from 68.86 only. We’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 68.86 to 80.17 at 75.84 to complete the correction.

            Focus will now turn to whether current rebound could extend through 78.75 resistance to indicate that such correction has completed. In this case, stronger rise would be seen back to retest 80.17 high first.

            SNB Jordan: Negative rates and interventions remain necessary

              SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that changing the inflation target “does not seem to be the right solution for Switzerland.” He explained, “first, it is unclear to what extent inflation expectations would align easily with the new target, the benefits may be lower than expected”.

              “Unless the inflation target was increased by several percentage points, the policy space would be relatively small,” he added. “Under these circumstances, unconventional policy measures would remain important.”

              He also reiterated, “in order to fulfill our mandate of price stability we will continue to use unconventional policy measures like negative interest rates and foreign exchange market interventions where necessary.”

              ECB Centeno: Must be patient and tolerant with deviations with inflation

                ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said, “when we are reviewing the strategy, broadening the leeway of the allowable inflation trajectories, it is very important that the forward guidance is adapted to this new framework, otherwise it would lose credibility.” But he emphasized that “there is no overshooting logic or average inflation rate” in the new strategy.

                Centeno explained that the new 2% symmetric inflation target means “positive or negative deviations are equally undesirable”. It gives “greater room for maneuver than before.” “The strategy admits a temporary and moderate inflation values above 2% … We must be patient and tolerant with deviations that we would not tolerate previously,” he said.

                He also said the main cause of recent rise in inflation are “eminently temporary”. And, “it is expected that these factors, which will temporarily raise inflation in 2021, will not last and so our forecast for 2023 is 1.4%, significantly below 2%.”

                US CPI surged to 5.4% yoy in June, core CPI jumped to 4.5% yoy

                  US CPI rose 0.9% mom in June, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. That’s the largest monthly rise since June 2008. CPI core rose 0.9% mom, also above expectation of 0.5% mom.

                  Over the last 12 months, headline CPI accelerated to 5.4% yoy, up from 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.9% yoy. That’s the highest annual rate since August 2008. CPI core jumped to 4.5% yoy, up from 3.8% yoy, above expectation of 4.0% yoy.

                  Full release here.

                  Fed Bullard: The time is right to pull back emergency measures

                    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a WSJ interview, “I think with the economy growing at 7% and the pandemic coming under better and better control, I think the time is right to pull back emergency measures.”

                    But he added, “we do want to do it gently and carefully” on tapering asset purchases. “But I think we’re in a very good position to start a taper. I don’t need to get going tomorrow, but I think we’re—I think we’re in very good shape for this”.

                    Bullard also said recent fall in bond yields was a “bullish” development. He’s “comfortable with the idea that the economy will continue to grow very robustly through the second half of this year, and go through the first half of 2022, and all of 2022.”

                    ECB Lagarde: It’s now a simple, solid, symmetric 2% inflation target

                      In an FT interview, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the old inflation target of “below, but close to, two per cent” was “vaguely ambiguous and a little bit complex”.  The target with the new strategy was a “simple, solid, symmetric two per cent target”

                      The 2% target now is “solid because it gives us space to manoeuvre our monetary policy, it is a well-accepted measurement of price stability around the world and it limits the welfare cost of too high inflation.”

                      She added that the third “s” of symmetry is really important, because “we affirm very clearly that there may be deviations up or down… we know that it’s not going to be a straight two per cent linearly forever once we reach the target and we’ll recognise that it will oscillate around two per cent. ”

                      Lagarde also said ECB’s policy rebound will be especially forceful or persistent”, intending to signal that” we will not prematurely tighten”.

                      Full interview here.

                      China exports rose 32.2% yoy in June, imports rose 23.1% yoy, trade surplus widened to USD 51.5B

                        In USD terms, China’s total trade rose 34.2% yoy to USD 511.3B in June. Exports rose 32.2% yoy to USD 281.4B, versus expectation of 23.1% yoy. Imports rose 36.7% yoy to USD 229.9B, versus expectation of 30.0% yoy. Trade surplus widened to USD 51.5B, above expectation of USD 44.4B.

                        Year-to-June, total trade with EU rose 37.0% yoy to USD 388.2B. Exports to EU rose 35.9% yoy to USD 233.0B. Imports from EU rose 38.8% yoy to USD 155.2B. Trade surplus came in at USD 78B.

                        Year-to-June, total trade with US rose 45.7% yoy to USD 340.8B. Exports to US rose 42.6% yoy to 252.9B. Imports from US rose 55.5% yoy to USD 87.9B. Trade surplus came in at USD 165B.

                        Year-to-June, total trade with Australia rose 35.0% yoy to USD 107.4B. Exports to AU rose 30.0% yoy to 29.7B. Imports from AU rose 37.0% yoy to AUD 77.7B. Trade deficit came in at USD -48B.

                        Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 11, conditions dropped to 24

                          Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped from 20 to 11 in June. Business Conditions dropped from 36 to 24. Trading conditions dropped from 45 to 35. Profitability conditions dropped from 39 to 25. Employment conditions dropped from 25 to 17.

                          “After reaching a record high last month, business conditions pulled back in the month. The decline in conditions was broad-based across states but led by a significant decline in Victoria coming off the back of the lockdown that started in late May but was eased, in a series of steps, over June” said NAB.

                          “Confidence took a hit in the month with the survey undertaken in the week of the NSW lockdown and with some overlap to brief shutdowns in the smaller capitals. The threat of closing borders also appears to have weighed everywhere”.

                          Full release here.

                          Fed Williams: Clearly, right not, we have not achieved substantial further progress

                            New York Fed President John Williams said Fed has a “very clear market” that “substantial further progress” needed to be achieved before tapering asset purchases. “That’s where I’m focused, clearly, right now we have not achieved that,” he said.

                            “This is a time of very high uncertainty,” he noted, adding that “I’m not going to give a forecast of when the committee will come to a decision around changing the pace of asset purchases.” He preferred completing tapering before raising interest rates but “that’s way off in the future for me”.

                            ECB Kazimir: The new policy objective is clear and simple

                              In a series of tweets, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said that the new inflation target of the strategic review was an “evolution that was necessary, we were looking for”. He added, “the redesign will enhance our abilities to guard & deliver on the primary objective – to maintain price stability in the euro area.”

                              “Low inflation has become entrenched over the past few years and our revamped strategy says that we will not allow this to happen in the future,” he said. “To achieve that also means, that inflation may sometimes moderately and temporarily be above 2 percent.”

                              “The policy objective is clear and simple. This clarity will strengthen our toolbox and enhance anchoring of inflation expectations as desired.

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                              ECB de Guindos: We will discuss new forward guidance next week

                                ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an event today, “next week we will discuss new forward guidance that includes new definition of price stability.”

                                “The formulation of the forward guidance has to be modified to include the new definition of price stability”, he added.

                                The comment was inline with Preisdent Christine Lagarde that there will be “some interesting variations and changes” in the upcoming July 22 meeting.

                                Fed Barkin: Employment-to-population ratio to rise to north of 59% before tapering

                                  Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told WSJ that labor market recovery doesn’t warrant tapering the asset purchase program yet. He said, “if the labor market can clear relatively quickly, then maybe it can happen sooner, but if it takes longer for the labor market to reopen, it goes a little later.”

                                  Specifically, the “employment-to-population” ratio would be important to determine whether Fed could dial back the massive stimulus it’s providing to the economy. The ratio tumbled from pre-pandemic 61.1 in February 2020 to as low as 51.3% last April. It then gradually climbed back to 58% this June. Barkin said it should be something just north of 59% before he’d consider tapering.

                                  Also he talked down the threat of inflation as it could “cool more than expected once the economic reopening process is complete.”

                                  Gold at a near term juncture after rebound stalls at 55 D EMA

                                    Gold is now at a near term juncture as rebound from 1750.49 halted after hitting 55 day EMA (now at 1813.31). It’s unsure whether the fall from 1916.30 has completed yet. But overall, such decline is still as just a falling leg inside the corrective pattern from 2074.84 high.

                                    In case of another fall, we’d continue to expect strong support from 1676.65 to contain downside. The level is close to long term fibonacci support of 1046.27 (2015 low) to 2074.84 at 1681.62. Meanwhile, break of 1818.13 and sustained trading above the 55 day EMA will be an early signal that the correction has completed. Stronger rise should be seen back to 1916.30 structural resistance next.

                                    ECB Villeroy: There is no point in putting predetermined threshold or duration on inflation overshoot

                                      ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the new 2% symmetric inflation target is a “significant change”. But, “there is no point putting in rules with such-and-such predetermined threshold or duration” on inflation overshoot.

                                      “In the hypothesis that we stop net purchases under the pandemic emergency purchases program next March, our monetary policy will remain very accommodative for as long as necessary, thanks to our quartet of unconventional tools. There is no doubt about that,” Villeroy added.

                                      Yannis Stournaras said that the new strategy will leave ECB better prepared for further crisis. Ignazio Visco noted ECB is not adopting average inflation target like that Fed, which suggests a period of catch-up in inflation.

                                      ECB Lagarde expects some interesting variations and changes in Jul meeting

                                        ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg that there will at “some interesting variations and changes” in the upcoming July 22 meeting. “It’s going to be an important meeting,” she added. “Given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment, forward guidance will certainly be revisited.”

                                        The immediate task for the Governing Council to align the statement and forward guidance with the result of the strategic review. “We’re going to look at the circumstances, we’re going to look at what forward guidance we need to revisit, we’re going to look at the calibration of all the tools we are using to make sure that it is aligned with our new strategy,” she said.

                                        Regarding the PEPP program, she expected it to continue until “at least” March 2022, then followed by a “transition into a new format”, without elaboration. She emphasized, “we need to be very flexible and not start creating the anticipation that the exit is in the next few weeks, months.”

                                        NIESR expects 0.9% UK GDP growth in June, 1.9% in Q3

                                          NIESR said UK’s 0.8% GDP growth in May “disappointed”. It expected GDP growth of 0.9% in June, and 4.8% in Q2 overall. Nevertheless, “with catch-up potential still evident in hospitality, transport, business support and the arts, we forecast growth of 1.9 per cent in the third quarter, still notably above historical trend growth rates.” But, “much will depend on the roll-out and efficacy of the vaccines in the context of the Delta variant.”

                                          “Like April, May’s GDP growth was faster than usual but almost entirely driven by the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, with the hospitality sector accounting for 0.7 percentage points of May’s 0.8 per cent growth. Underlying growth is moderate outside the sectors being unlocked, with supply constraints contributing to the continuing recent stagnation in manufacturing. It remains to be seen whether the lifting of further restrictions in July contributes to a continuation of strong growth in the third quarter or – if cases of Covid-19 continue to rise – increased caution among consumers and even another national lockdown.”

                                          Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

                                          Full release here.