NIESR said retail and hospitality would contribute significantly to UK growth in May. It forecasts monthly GDP growth of 1.5% in May and 0.9% in June. But it also warned that “Postponing the last step of re-opening may delay the recovery in arts and recreation by a few weeks but, if it helps avoid a third wave of infections, it could contribute to sustained recovery in the second half of the year.”

“Like March, April was a month of rapid growth in services output, as anticipated, driven by the re-opening of non-essential retail, outdoor hospitality and near-full attendance in schools. May will follow a similar pattern, as further restrictions are lifted, as will June if the final step of the roadmap goes to plan. But falls in construction and production, which were less affected by the 2021 lockdown, remind us that our focus should now be on the prospects for the economy in the second half of the year, after temporary re-opening effects have ceased to provide strong monthly increases.” Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting.

Full release here.

UK GDP grew 2.3% mom in April, slightly below expectation of 2.4% mom. That’s still the fastest monthly growth since July 2020, as pandemic restrictions eased. Services grew solidly by 3.4% mom. But production dropped -1.3% mom, first fall since January. Construction also contracted by -2.0% mom. Overall, GDP remains -3.7% below pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, but was 1.2% above initial recovery peak in October 2020.

Full release here.

Also released, industrial production came in at -1.3% mom, 27.5% yoy in April, versus expectation of 1.2% mom, 30.2% yoy. Manufacturing production came in at -0.3% mom, 39.7% yoy, versus expectation of 1.5% mom, 42.0% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -11.0B.