New York Fed President John Williams said, “we’re still quite a ways off from maintaining the substantial further progress we’re really looking for in terms of adjustments to our asset purchase program.” And, “I just don’t think the time is now to take any action.”
“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options we may have in the future,” Williams added.
Williams was “very positive” about the economic look. “I expect the economy will adapt to the rapid recovery and we’re going to see very good jobs growth and expect to see really strong GDP growth this year and seeing good growth next year,” he said.
























Dollar index rebounded ahead of NFP, eyeing 90.90 resistance
US non-farm payroll employment is once again a major focus today. Markets are expecting 621k job growth in May. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 6.1% to 5.9%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.2% mom.
Looking at related data, ADP private jobs grew a massive 978k in the month. More importantly, growth was quite evenly distribution among small, mid, and large companies. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped sharply from 612k to 428k. However, ISM manufacturing employment dropped notably from 55.1 to 50.9. ISM services employment also dropped from 58.8 to 55.3. There is still room for disappointment considering the relatively high expectations on the NFP numbers.
Dollar staged a strong and broad based rebound overnight. The Dollar index look set to start the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 89.20. Yet, we’d need to see firm break of 90.90 resistance, as well as sustained trading above 55 day EMA to confirm. In that case, stronger rise should follow towards 93.43 resistance in the next few months. However, failure to do so would keep near term outlook bearish for at least another take on 89.20 low.