US PCE rose to 3.6% yoy, core PCE jumped to 3.1% yoy

    US personal income dropped -13.1% mom, or USD 3.21T in April, slightly better than expectation of -14.0% mom. Personal spending rose 0.5% mom, or USD 80.3B, below expectation of 0.6% mom.

    Headline PCE price index accelerated to 3.6% yoy, up from 2.4% yoy, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. Core PCE price index also jumped to 3.1% yoy, up from 1.9% yoy, above expectation of 3.0% yoy.

    Full release here.

    Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 114.5, close to Dec 2017 peak

      Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose strongly to 114.5 in May, up from 110.5, above expectation of 112.1. The index scored markedly above its long-term average and pre-pandemic level. It was close to December 2017 peak. Employment Expectations Indicator rose 2.9 pts to 110.1.

      Eurozone industry confidence rose from 10.9 to 11.5. Services confidence rose from 2.2 to 11.3. Consumer confidence rose from -8.1 to -5.1. Retail trade confidence rose from -3.0 to 0.4. Construction confidence rose from 3.0 to 4.9.

      EU ESI rose 4 pts to 113.9. The ESI is well above its long-term average, and rose markedly in all of the six largest EU economies, mostly so in Italy (+11.0), followed by Poland (+5.1), France (+5.0), the Netherlands (+3.2), Germany (+2.8) and Spain (+2.3).

      Full release here.

      Swiss KOF rose to 143.2, very positive economic outlook for mid 2021

        Swiss KOF economic barometer rose to 143.2 in May, up from 136.4. KOF said, “the outlook for the Swiss economy for the middle of 2021 can be regarded as very positive, provided that the containment of the virus continues to progress.”

        KOF added: “The sharp increase is driven by bundles of indicators from the manufacturing sector and foreign demand. An additional positive signal is sent by indicators for accommodation and food service activities followed by indicators for the other services sector. By contrast, slight negative impulses are sent by private consumption.”

        Full release here.

        France household consumption dropped -8.3% mom in Apr

          France household consumption expenditure dropped -8.3% mom in April. The decline was mainly due to manufactured goods purchases (–18.9%), during the third lockdown. Energy expenditure dropped slightly by -0.6%. Food consumption dropped -0.2%. Spending was -9.5% below its average level in Q4, 2019.

          Also released, CPI came in at 0.3% mom, 1.8% yoy in May, matched expectations. GDP dropped slightly by -0.1% qoq in Q1. It stood -4.7% below prepandemic level in Q4 2019.

          ECB Schnabel: Rising yields a natural development at a turning point

            ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said, “rising yields are a natural development at a turning point in the recovery – investors become more optimistic, inflation expectations rise and, as a result, nominal yields go up.” “This is precisely what we would expect and what we want to see,” she said. Also, “financing conditions remain favorable.”

            “We always have to be willing to reduce or increase asset purchases in line with our promise to keep euro area financing conditions favorable,” she added. “The recovery still depends on continued policy support. A premature withdrawal of either fiscal or monetary support would be a great mistake,”

            “It’s likely that when the PEPP ends, we will not have reached our (inflation target),” Schnabel said. “In that case, we will continue to run a highly accommodative monetary policy also after the PEPP.”

            BoJ’s asset holdings reached 1.3 times of nominal GDP in fiscal 2020

              According to BoJ’s data, total assets held surged to JPY 715T in fiscal 2020, on the central bank’s massive purchases. It was 1.3 times the nominal GDP of Japan, at JPY 536T in the same fiscal year.

              Of the assets, JGBs totaled JPY 532T, up 9.5% from a year earlier. Loans to financial institutions jumped 2.3 times to JPY 126T. ETS rose 20.7% to JPY 36T.

              Separately, it’s reported that BoJ would extend the pandemic relief program by another six months, at its June 17-18 meeting.

              Released from Japan, unemployment rate edged higher to 2.8% in April, up from 2.5%, above expectation of 2.7%. Tokyo CPI core dropped -2.0% yoy in May, unchanged from April’s reading.

              Fed Kaplan: Wise to talk about moderating QE sooner rather than later

                Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC, “sooner rather than later I think it would be wise to start talking about moderating some of these purchases that we put in place during the crisis.”

                “I think maybe the efficacy of these versus the side effects, I think that balance is changing as we’re emerging from the crisis and making progress,” he said.

                “Coming out of this pandemic, I think we’ve got some paradigm shifts,” he said. “There’s no textbook for this. You don’t want to be so preemptive that you choke off the recovery. On the other hand, you don’t want to be so late that you’re behind the curve.”

                US durable goods orders dropped -1.3% in Apr, first decline in a year

                  US durable goods orders dropped -1.3% mom to USD 246.2B in April, worse than expectation of 0.8% mom rise. That’s the first contraction since eleven consecutive monthly growth. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.0% mom, above expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-defense orders were virtually unchanged. Transportation equipment dropped -6.7m to USD 68.9B.

                  Full release here.

                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 404k, lowest since Mar 2020

                    US initial jobless claims dropped -38k to 406k in the week ending May 22, better than expectation of 430k. That’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020 (at 256k). Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -46k to 459k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                    Continuing claims dropped -96k to 3642k in the week ending May 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -2.75k to 3675k.

                    Full release here.

                     

                    US GDP grew 6.4% annualized in Q1, unrevised

                      According to second estimate, US GDP grew 6.4% annualized in Q1, unrevised. Upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to exports and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.

                      Full release here.

                      BoE Vlieghe: Probably take until Q1 to see when a rate hike is appropriate

                        BoE policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said in a speech that, his central scenario for the economy sees “somewhat more slack” that the MPC’s central projection. He worried that “the transition out of furlough does involve a modest rise in the unemployment rate”. But even in that case, “the first rise in Bank Rate is likely to become appropriate only well into next year, with some modest further tightening thereafter.”

                        On the upside, “the transition out of furlough happen more smoothly” with unemployment at or at little below current levels by year end, and with associated signs of upward inflation and wage pressure beyond the temporary and base effect. Then, “a somewhat earlier rise in Bank Rate would be appropriate”.

                        Still, “It would probably take until the first quarter of next year to have a clear view of the post-furlough unemployment and wage dynamics, so a rise in Bank Rate could be appropriate soon after, along a slightly steeper path than in my central case.”

                        Full speech here.

                        Germany Gfk consumer sentiment rose to -7, leaving the third wave more and more behind

                          Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for June improved to -7.0, up from -8.6, but missed expectation of -5.3. Economic expectations jumped sharply from 7.3 to 41.1 in May, hitting the highest level in more than three years. Income expectations surged from 9.3 to 19.5. Propensity to buy, however, dropped from 17.3 to 10.0.

                          Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert comments on the subject: “We are leaving the third wave more and more behind us, the incidence values have been decreasing significantly for several weeks. And we are also making great progress when it comes to vaccination. As a result, loosening of restrictions and a reversal of the strict lockdown are possible. This primarily fuels economic optimism and creates a mood of economic optimism at the moment.”

                          Full release here.

                          USTR Tai briefed China on its worker-centered trade policy and raised issues of concerns

                            US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held the first phone call in the Biden era. USTR said during their “candid exchange”, Tai “discussed the guiding principles of the Biden-Harris Administration’s worker-centered trade policy and her ongoing review of the U.S.-China trade relationship, while also raising issues of concern.”

                            On the Chinese side, it said that both parties had a “candid, pragmatic and constructive” conversation. But no details were revealed on any developments on trade and tariffs.

                            RBNZ Orr in position to start normalizing monetary policy this time next year

                              RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said at a parliamentary committee meeting, “in our projections, conditional to the economic outlook continuing to unfold as anticipated, about this time next year if not further on we see ourselves in a positive position of being able to start to normalize monetary conditions towards somewhat neutral position.”

                              As for the NZD 100B Large Scale Asset Purchase program, it will continue at the current rate through to June 2022. Any changes to the purchases will be driven by market functioning.

                              Fed Quarles: Could be important to discuss tapering at upcoming meetings

                                Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles said in a speech that, “a significant portion of that recent boost to inflation will be transitory”, and it “will not interfere with the rapid growth driving progress toward the Fed’s maximum-employment goal.” He expected “strong recovery will keep rolling forward”. Nevertheless, “uneven global recovery” and “supply bottlenecks” are two “potential headwinds” for the economy.

                                Quarles added that, “if my expectations about economic growth, employment, and inflation over the coming months are borne out, however, and especially if they come in stronger than I expect, then, as noted in the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, it will become important for the FOMC to begin discussing our plans to adjust the pace of asset purchases at upcoming meetings.”

                                However, “the time for discussing a change in the federal funds rate remains in the future. The guidance for the federal funds rate commits to maintain the current rate until labor market conditions are consistent with our goal of maximum employment and inflation not only has reached 2 percent, but also is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”

                                Full speech here.

                                US oil inventories dropped -1.7m barrels, WTI retreating

                                  US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -1.7m barrels in the week ending May 21, versus expectation of -1.0m barrels. At 484.3m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -1.7m barrels. Distillate dropped -3.0m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -0.4m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -7.7m barrels.

                                  WTI crude dropped to 61.51 last week, but drew support from 55 day EMA and rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, WTI lost momentum ahead just ahead of 66.98/67.83 resistance zone. Consolidation pattern from 67.83 could still extend with another falling leg. Break of 61.51 will target 57.31 support and below. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 33.80 to 67.83 at 54.83. Nevertheless, break of 67.83 will resume larger up trend for 70 handle next.

                                  Japan: Economy shows weakness in some components further

                                    Japan’s Cabinet Office said in the monthly economic assessment that the economy “shows weakness in some components further”. Private consumption shows “weakness further recently, especially in service spending.”.

                                    Nevertheless, other assessments were largely unchanged. Business investment is “picking up”. Exports continue to “increase moderately”. Industrial production ins “picking up” Corporate profits are “picking up as a whole”. Employment situation shows “steady movement in some components”. Consumer prices are flat.

                                    Provisional translation summary here.

                                    Gold breaks 1900, heading to retest 2075 high

                                      Gold’s up rally continues this week and breaks above 1900 handle, hitting as high as 1907 so far today. The correction from 2075.18 should have completed with three waves down to 1676.65 already. Further rise is now expected to 1959.16 resistance first. Break will further affirm this bullish case and target a test on 2075.18 high. Break of 1845.31 resistance turned support is needed to indicate short term topping, or outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

                                      Tentatively, we’re viewing current rally has resuming the long term up trend from 1046.37 (2015 low). Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 2075.18 from 1676.65 at 2242.12.

                                      ECB Panetta: Discussion about phasing out PEPP is clearly premature

                                        ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said today that “The conditions that we see today do not justify reducing the pace of purchases, and a discussion about phasing out the PEPP is still clearly premature.”

                                        “In fact, we are now seeing a further undesirable increase in yields after the rise we observed earlier in the year,” he added

                                        Also, “we are far from the point where we can see self-sustained growth,” Panetta said. “A premature withdrawal of policy support would risk suffocating the recovery.”

                                        Fed Daly: We’re talking about talking about tapering only

                                          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBAC that “we haven’t seen substantial further progress just yet. We’re still looking for substantial further progress.”

                                          “What we’ve seen is some really bright spots, some very encouraging news. It gives me hope, and I am bullish for the future. But it’s too early to say that the job is done,” she added.

                                          Also, “we’re talking about talking about tapering, and that is what you want out of us. You want to be long-viewed here,” she said. “But I want to make sure that everyone knows it’s not about doing anything new. Right now, policy is in a very good place. Policy is supporting the American people.”