NIESR forecasts 2% mom UK GDP in April, and 4.7% qoq growth in Q2. This is likely to be driven by the retail and hospitality sectors. For the full year 2021, it expects 5.7% growth, driven by strong consumer spending.
“A contraction of 1.5 per cent is in line with our forecast for the first quarter of the year, underlining the extent to which the economy has adapted to deal with the latest national lockdown. This has provided a better start to 2021 than anticipated at the beginning of the year and we expect it to contribute to a strong rebound in the second quarter as the economy opens up, consistent with our year-on-year growth forecast of 5.7 per cent in 2021. As expected with many children returning to school, the education sector provided a large contribution to growth in March. There were also significant contributions from the retail sector, from construction and from testing and vaccination programmes in the health and social care sector.” Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
















Fed Clarida: It’s important that pressures to inflation be transitory
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said he expected inflation to “return to – or perhaps run somewhat above – our 2% longer-run goal in 2022 and 2023”. That would actually fit under the new policy framework. Though, he admitted that he was “surprised by higher-than-expected inflation data released today”. Still, “it’s important that pressures to inflation be transitory”.
Clarida also said that “the near-term outlook for the labor market appears to be more uncertain than the outlook for economic activity.” He added, “What this necessary rebalancing of labor supply and demand means for wage and price dynamics will depend importantly on the pace of recovery in labor force participation as well as the extent to which there are post-pandemic mismatches between labor demand and supply in specific sectors of the economy and how long any such imbalances persist.”