Eurozone retail sales rose 3.0% mom in Feb, EU rose 2.9% mom

    Eurozone retail sales rose 3.0% mom in February, well above expectation of 1.4% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 6.8% mom for non-food products and by 3.7% mom for automotive fuels, while it decreased by -1.1% mom for food, drinks and tobacco.

    EU retail sales rose 2.9% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in total retail trade were registered in Austria (+28.2%), Slovenia (+16.4%) and Italy (+8.4%). The largest decreases were observed in Malta (-1.5%), France and Hungary (both -1.2%).

    Full release here.

    Bitcoin back pressing 60k on strong open, aiming for new record

      Bitcoin gapped higher as the week starts, breaking through last week’s high and it’s back pressing 60k handle. Recent up trend is still in progress and bitcoin could break through record high at 60726 any time soon.

      Yet, we’d maintain that it has been losing upside momentum since February, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, current rise from 50320 is seen as the fifth leg of the terminal triangle that started 29283. Hence the break to new record high should be relatively brief, and a sizeable correction should follow.

      Nevertheless, in case of a pull back, break of 55555 support is needed to confirm short term topping first. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish and risk will stay on the upside.

      Fed Powell: H2 going to be very strong but risks are still out there

        In the CBS’ 60 Minutes aired on Sunday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “we feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly”. He added that the growth in H2 is “going to be very strong”.

        “There really are risks out there,” he added. “And the principal one just is that we will reopen too quickly, people will too quickly return to their old practices, and we’ll see another spike in cases.” But even in that case, any spike in cases wouldn’t be as disastrous as prior ones, thanks to vaccinations. The economy will still “move ahead more quickly to the extent we keep the spread of COVID under control.”

        The time to for the administration to reduce the budget deficit is “when the economy is strong and we’re fully recovered and people are working and taxes are rolling in,” he said. “The time to do that is not now.”

        ECB: Panetta: Waiting on inflation will even be more costly

          Fabio Panetta told Spanish newspaper El Pais in an interview published on Sunday, “the ECB has failed to reach its aim for too many years already.” And, “we cannot be satisfied with inflation at 1.2% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023. The argument that we could extend the horizon to meet the aim is not a convincing one.”

          “Waiting will be even more costly,” Panetta added. “It would make it more difficult to re-anchor inflation expectations and we would risk a permanent reduction of economic potential.”

          Fed Clarida: Most of early rise in inflation will revert by year-end

            Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a Bloomberg TV interview that there is a lot of “pent-demand” as well as “pent-up supply” in the economy. Both supply and demand will be in play as the year progresses. The “baseline expectation” is that most of the early rise in inflation this year will “revert by year-end”.

            “If inflation at the end of the year has not declined from where it is at the middle of the year might be ‘good evidence’ of inflation that is not transitory,” he added.

            Also, Clarida reiterated that “substantial progress is actual progress.” Fed will inform the public about the progresses “as we go through the year”. “We will have ample opportunities as data comes in to inform Fed observers on our progress”, he said.

            Canada employment grew 303k in Mar, unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%

              Canada employment grew 303k, or 1.6% mom in March, well above expectation of 90k. Full time employment rose 175k while part-time employment rose 128k. Employment was then within 1.5% of its prepandemic level in February 2020. Unemployment rate dropped sharply by -0.7% to 7.5%, below expectation of 8.0%. That’s also the lowest level since February 2020.

              Full release here.

              ECB Schnabel: It’s a economic disaster if EU pandemic recovery fund is delayed

                ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned in a Der Spiegel interview, “it would be an economic disaster for Europe if the disbursement of the funds were to be delayed indefinitely.” She referred to the EUR 750B EU pandemic response stimulus. The ratification of the measures is temporarily blocked in Germany. “If that were the case, Europe would have to think about alternative solutions, but that could take some time.”

                Regarding surging stocks and real-estate markets, Schnabel also warned, “the risks of a correction are increasing, especially if the economic recovery falls short of expectation.”

                Separately, Vice President Luis De Guindos said he saw the risk of “negative feedback loop between companies, banks and sovereigns.” He warned that withdrawal of stimulus must be “careful”.

                Australia AiG services rose to 58.7 in Mar, highest since Jun 2018

                  Australia Performance of Services Index rose 2.9 pts to 58.7 in March. That’s the highest monthly result since June 2018. All five services sectors indicated “strong rates of recovery”. Four activity indicators – sales, new orders, stocks and deliveries – showed “robust recovery”. However, Employment index indicated “stably or mildly decreasing employment”.

                  Ai Group Chief Executive, Innes Willox, said: “While areas of vulnerability clearly remain, the strong lift in new orders is an encouraging sign that the services sector as a whole is well positioned to work through the winding down of fiscal stimulus in the next few months.”

                  Full release here.

                  Fed Daly still see real pockets of weakness and concern

                    San Francisco President Mary Daly she’s “bullish on the rebound” of the economy. Yet, “we have a long way to go before the job is complete.” She expects a small pick-up in inflation this year. But like many other Fed officials, she expected the pick-up to be transitory.

                    On monetary policy, she said, “we said substantial further progress, we have to see it, we don’t have to expect it, we have to see it”, before considering stimulus exit. For now, “you still see real pockets of weakness, real pockets of concern.”

                    Fed Powell: Upward price pressure will be temporary

                      Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an IMF event, ” there will be upward pressure on prices which may be passed along to consumers in the form of price increases”. But he added, “we think that that will be temporary.” He also noted that inflation has been low for more than two decades, and that fed into a psychology of low inflation expectations.

                      “If inflation were unexpectedly, counter to our expectations, to move meaningfully above levels where we are comfortable – and in particular inflation expectations… if we see them moving persistently and materially above levels we are comfortable with, then we would react to that,” he said.

                      Gold completing double bottom pattern, more upside ahead?

                        Gold’s breach of 1755.29 resistance today argues that it could be completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1676.65, 1677.69). Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1765.07) should confirm short term bottoming at 1676.65. That should also be the first sign that correction from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down.

                        In this bullish case, Gold should rise further to 38.2% retracement of 2075.18 to 1676.65 at 1828.88 first. Break there will target channel resistance at 1887.56. However, failure to sustain above 1755.29 will retain bearishness, for extending the correction from 2075.18 through 1676.65 at a later stage.

                        US initial jobless claims rose to 744k, continuing claims down to 3.73m

                          US initial jobless claims rose 16k to 744k in the week ending April 3, well above expectation of 650k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 723.75k.

                          Continuing claims dropped -16k to 3734k, lowest level since March 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -105.75k to 3862k.

                          Full release here.

                          ECB accounts: Conducting PEPP purchase at a significantly higher pace in Q2 was proportionate

                            In the accounts of March ECB monetary policy meeting, it’s noted that the decision to conduct PEPP purchases at a “significantly higher pace” during Q2 was “proportionate in the light of the ECB’s mandate, balancing increased optimism about the medium-term outlook against the considerable uncertainty that still prevailed in the shorter term.”

                            The decisions would “send a strong signal that the Governing Council wanted to lean against the tightening of financing conditions”. Yet, it was remarked that the Governing Council needed to “avoid giving the impression of being overly focused on sovereign yields or reacting mechanically to a set of indicators of financing conditions.”

                            Overall, there was “wide agreement” in the council that purchase pace needed to “take into account a joint assessment of the favourability of current financing conditions and the inflation outlook”. The council would undertake a “quarterly” joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook in order to determine the pace of purchases needed to keep financing conditions favourable.

                            Full accounts here.

                            Eurozone PPI at 0.5% mom, 1.5% yoy in Feb

                              Eurozone PPI came in at 0.5% mom, 1.5% yoy in February, versus expectation of 0.6% mom, 1.4% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 1.2% for intermediate goods, by 0.3% in the energy sector and for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.2% for durable consumer goods and by 0.1% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.6%.

                              EU PPI came in at 0.7% mom, 1.6% yoy. For the month, the highest increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Greece and Luxembourg (both +2.8%), Belgium (+2.4%) and Lithuania (+2.0%), while the only decreases were observed in Ireland, (-9.7%), Spain (-1.5%) and Portugal (-0.5%).

                              Full release here.

                              UK PMI construction rose to 61.7 in Mar, highest since 2014

                                UK PMI Construction rose to 61.7 in March, up sharply from 53.3, well above expectation of 55.0. That’s the strongest reading since September 2014. Markit also said there was robust growth in all major categories of construction activity. Rise in commercial work was fastest for six-and-a-half years. Job creation also accelerated to 27-month high.

                                Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “March data revealed a surge in UK construction output as the recovery broadened out from house building to commercial work and civil engineering… Improving confidence among clients in the commercial segment was a key driver of growth.. The increasingly optimistic UK economic outlook has created a halo effect on construction demand and the perceived viability of new projects.”

                                Full release here.

                                New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -8.4, stresses and strains starting to show

                                  New Zealand ANZ Business confidence dropped to -8.4 in April, down from -4.1. Own activity outlook dropped slightly to 16.4, down from 16.6. Looking at more details, export intensions rose from 4.5 to 6.6. Investment intentions rose form 11.9 to 12.4. Cost expectations rose from 73.3 to 75.1. Employment intentions dropped slightly from 14.4 to 14.1. Profit expectations dropped notably from -0.6 to -4.3.

                                  ANZ said: “The stresses and strains in the New Zealand economy are starting to show…. rising costs are an economy-wide issue…. It’s inflationary, but not growth-friendly, so the RBNZ will look through it as long as it appears transitory.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Fed Evans: We have to be patient and bolder on inflation

                                    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “we are going to have to go months and months into the higher inflation experience before I’m going to even have an opinion on whether or not this is sustainable or not, and that’s going to be uncomfortable.”

                                    “We really have to be patient and be willing to be bolder than most conservative central bankers would choose to be if we are going to actually get inflation expectations to move up in a sustainable fashion,” he added.

                                    Fed Brainard: Our policy guidance is premised on outcomes, not outlook

                                      Fed Governor Lael Brainard told CNBC that “our monetary policy forward guidance is premised on outcomes not the outlook” Hence, “it is going to be some time before both employment and inflation have achieved the kinds of outcomes that are in that forward guidance.”

                                      She acknowledged that the latest economic forecast is “considerably better outcomes both on growth as well as on employment and inflation.” But she reiterated, “that’s an outlook. We’re going to have to actually see that in the data. When you look at the data, we are still far from our maximum employment goal.”

                                      Brainard also said it’s “really important to recognize” the rise in inflation is “transitory”. “And following those transitory pressures associated with reopening, it’s more likely that the entrenched dynamics that we’ve seen for well over a decade will take over.”

                                      Fed minutes: Some time until substantial further progress made

                                        Minutes of March 16-17 FOMC meeting reiterated the assessment that it will take “some time” until “substantial further progress” is made towards Fed’s targets. The asset purchases will continue “at least at the current pace” until then. Also, if there would be any changes in the QE program, they would be communicated to the public “well in advance of time”.

                                        “Participants noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized and that, consistent with the Committee’s outcome-based guidance, asset purchases would continue at least at the current pace until then,” the minutes said.

                                        Additionally, “a number of participants highlighted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases.”

                                        “The timing of such communications would depend on the evolution of the economy and the pace of progress toward the Committee’s goals.”

                                        Full minutes here.

                                        US oil inventories dropped -3.5m barrels, WTI staying in range

                                          US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -3.5m barrels in the week ending April 2, versus expectation of -2.0m. At 498.3m barrels, oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 4.0m barrels. Distillate inventories rose 1.5m barrels. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.3m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose 2.3m barrels.

                                          WTI is staying in sideway pattern from 57.31 and outlook is unchanged. With 62.22 resistance intact, the correction from 67.83 could still extend lower. Break of 57.31 will target 38.2% retracement of 33.50 to 67.83 at 54.71. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 62.22 will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 67.83. high.