Tue, Dec 16, 2025 @ 15:13 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 413

Live Comments

Latest

Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to 13.1, expectations building on accelerated vaccination

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 13.1 in April, up from 5, well above expectation of 6.7. That’s also the highest level since August 2018. Current situation index rose from -19.3 to -6.5, highest since February 2020. Expectations index rose from 32.5 to 34.8, an all-time high.

    Sentix said: “Investors are building their expectations on accelerated vaccination success across the EU. The economic recovery process is supported by a massive expansion of fiscal policy. Investors even expect the fiscal impulse to expand. Since at the same time there are no signs of a significant departure from the expansive monetary policy of the central banks, the applied inflationary pressure remains high. Significant inflationary risks are in place for the coming months.”

    Germany overall investor confidence index rose from 11.9 to 20.0, highest since August 2018. Current situation index rose from -9.5 to 4.5, highest since January 2020. Expectations index rose from 35.8 to 36.8.

    USA overall index rose from 25.5 to 38.6, new record and 12th increase in a row. Current situation index rose from 9.0 to 30.0, highest since February 2020. Expectations index rose from 43.3 to 47.5, a record high.

    Global overall index rose to 20.5 to 26.8, highest since February 2018. Current situation index rose from 5.5 to 16.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations index rose from 36.5 to 37.7, record high.

    Full release here.

    RBA stands pat, recovery well under way but price pressures subdued

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      RBA kept monetary policy settings unchanged as widely expected, including cash rate and 3-year yield target at 0.10%. Also, parameters of the Term Funding Facility and asset purchases are maintained.

      The central bank reiterated that recovery in Australia is “well under way and is stronger than had been expected”. Recovery is “expected to continue, with above-trend growth this year and next”. But wage and price pressures are “subdued” and are expected to “remain so for some time”. Underlying inflation is expected to “remain below 2 per cent over the next few years”.

      It also kept the pledge to ” maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals are achieved”. Conditions for a rate hike is not expected to be met “until 2024 at the earliest”.

      Full statement here.

      S&P 500, DOW hit new record as up trend continue

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        US stocks surged sharply overnight, with S&P 500 and DOW closing at new record highs. S&P 500 rose 1.44% or 58.04 to 4077.91. It’s now close to 61.8% projection of 2191.86 to 3588.11 from 3233.94 at 4096.82. Based on current momentum, this projection is more likely to be taken out decisively than not. In that case, sustained trading above 4096.82 will confirm strong underlying medium term momentum, and pave the way to 100% projection at 4630.19. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 3853.50 support holds.

        DOW has already taken out equivalent level, 61.8% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 32932.93. S&P 500’s reaction to 4096.82 would help double confirm DOW’s medium term upside momentum. We’re looking at 100% projection at 37129.47 as next target. In any case, DOW will stay bullish as long as 32071.41 support holds.

        China Caixin PMI services rose to 54.3, economy continued to recover

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          China Caixin PMI Services rose to 54.3 in March, up from 51.5, above expectation of 51.7. Markit noted that business activity and sales both rose at quicker rates. Employment returned to growth. Business confidence also hit highest for over a decade amid hopes of post pandemic recovery. PMI composite also picked up to 53.1, from February’s 51.7.

          Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the economy continued to recover from the epidemic…. The recovery in manufacturing slowed for the fourth straight month, whereas for services, it expanded at a much faster pace… More attention still needs to be paid to inflation going forward. Input costs and output prices in the services and manufacturing sectors have been rising for several months, reflecting growing inflationary pressure. This has restricted the room for future policy changes and is not conducive to a sustained economic recovery in the post-epidemic period.”

          Full release here.

          Fed Mester: We’ll see a very strong second half of the year

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a CNBC interview that “we’ll see a very strong second half of the year”. However, ” we are still far from our policy goals,” referring Fed’s dual mandate.

            The March non-farm payrolls report was a “great” one. But Mester added, “we need more of them coming our way.” “I think we need to be very deliberately patient in our approach to monetary policy.”

            Mester was not concerned with this year’s rise in treasury yields. “I think the higher bond yields are quite understandable in the context of the improvement in the economic outlook. The increase has been an orderly increase,” she said. “So I’m not concerned at this point with the rise in yields. I don’t think there’s anything for the Fed to react to.”

            US ISM services rose to 63.7, corresponds to 5.1% annualized GDP growth

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              US ISM Services jumped to 63.7 in March, up from 55.3, above expectation of 58.5. Looking at some details, business activity/production rose 13.9 pts to 69.4. New orders rose 15.3 pts to 67.2. Employment rose 4.5 pts to 57.2. Prices rose 2.2 pts to 74.0.

              ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI® for March (63.7 percent) corresponds to a 5.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

              Full release here.

              CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD lost some momentum after last week’s moves

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                CAD/JPY lost momentum after after hitting 88.28 last week. But overall, outlook remains bullish as long as 86.05 support holds. Current up trend from 73.80 is likely reversing the down trend from 106.48. 91.62 long term resistance is the next upside target. Sustained break there will confirm long term bullishness.

                EUR/CAD also lost downside momentum after hitting 1.4737 last week. But overall, outlook stays bearishness with 1.4972 resistance intact. Focus is now on 161.8% projection of 1.5978 to 1.5313 from 1.5783 at 1.4707. Sustained break there will pave the way towards 1.4263 key support level. However, as current decline from 1.5991 could be just a leg inside the long term sideway pattern from 1.6103. We’d look for more signs of bottoming as it approaches 1.4623.

                GBP rises against EUR and CHF in quiet trading

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Sterling surges broadly in quiet holiday trading today, in particular against other European majors. GBP/CHF resumes recent up trend by breaking through last week’s high of 1.3059. Rise from 1.1683 is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 1.1102. Next target is 1.3310 medium term resistance, and then 161.8% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.3555. Break of 1.2998 minor support will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2769 support holds.

                  EUR/GBP also accelerates downward to as low as 0.8470 so far. Current fall from 0.9291 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.8276 support next. We’d look for bottoming signal as it approaches this support. However, firm break there will carry larger bearish implications, and could pave the way to 100% projection of 0.9499 to 0.8670 from 0.9291 at 0.7950 in the medium term. Above 0.8532 will bring some consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8644 resistance holds.

                   

                  US NFP rose 916 in Mar, unemployment rate dropped to 6.0%

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    US non-farm payroll employment rose 916k in March, well above expectation of 633k. Unemployment rate dropped to 6.0%, below expectation of 6.1%. Labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.5%. Average hourly earnings, however, dropped -0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom.

                    Full release here.

                    US ISM manufacturing rose to 64.7, highest since 1983

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 64.7 in March, up from 60.8, above expectation of 61.0. That’s also the highest level since December 1983. Looking at some details, new orders rose 3.2 to 68.0. Production rose 4.9 to 68.1. Employment rose 5.2 to 59.6. Prices dropped -0.4 to 85.6.

                      ISM: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for March (64.7 percent) corresponds to a 6.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                      Full release here.

                      US initial jobless claims rose to 719k, continuing claims at 3.8m

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US initial jobless claims rose 61k to 719k in the week ending March 27, above expectation of 678k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -10.5k to 719k.

                        Continuing claims dropped -46k to 3794k in the week ending March 20. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -147k to 3979k.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB Lane: 2021 rise in inflation just the unwinding of 2020 disinflationary forces

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          ECB chief economist Philip Lane said in a blog post that “the volatility of inflation during 2020-2021 can be largely attributed to the nature of the pandemic shock”. Increase in inflation in 2021 can be “best interpreted as the unwinding of disinflationary forces that took hold in 2020” only.

                          Medium term inflation outlook “remains subdued, amid “weak demand and substantial slack in labour and product market”. Against this background, Lane said, “ensuring favourable financing conditions is fundamental to restoring inflation momentum and guiding the formation of inflation expectations”

                          “Offsetting the negative pandemic shock to the inflation outlook is only the first stage of the monetary policy challenge,” he added. Even after the disinflationary pressures are offset, ” we will have to ensure that the monetary policy stance delivers the timely and robust convergence to our inflation aim.”.

                          Full blog post here.

                          UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.9 in Mar, signs of spring appeared

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.9 in March, up from February’s 55.1. That’s the highest level in 121 months since February 2011. Business optimism rose to seven-year high. But supply-chain disruption and inflationary pressures built.

                            Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit: “Signs of Spring have appeared in the UK manufacturing sector, with the PMI hitting its highest level in a decade… Weak export sales and supply-chain issues are likely to remain constraints on growth moving forward, however… Demand outstripping supply to such a wide extent is meanwhile driving up prices… The longer these inflationary and supply-chain worries persist, the greater the potential to curb the strength of the upturn as the economy unlocks in the coming weeks and months.”

                            Full release here.

                            Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 62.5 in Mar, improvement broad based across the region

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 62.5 in March, up from February’s 57.9. Manufacturing economy “performed extremely strongly”, with “operating conditions improving to the greatest degree in nearly 24 years of data collection.”

                              Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing rose to 66.6, a record high. The Netherlands rose to 64.7, record high. Australia rose to 63.4, 39-month high. Italy rose to 59.8, 252-month high. France rose to 59.3, 246-month high. Ireland rose to 57.1, 8-month high. Spain rose to 56.9, 171-month high. Even Greece rose to 51.8, 13-month high.

                              Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Although centred on Germany… the improving trend is broad based across the region as factories benefit from rising domestic demand and resurgent export growth…. Driving the upturn has been a marked improvement in business confidence in recent months, with expectations of growth in the year ahead running at record highs in February and March.”

                              Full release here.

                              Australia exports dropped -1% mom in Feb, imports rose 5%

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Australia goods and services exports dropped -1% mom to AUD 38.93B in February. Goods and services imports rose 5% mom to AUD 31.40B. Trade surplus came in at AUD 7.53B, down form January’s AUD 9.62B, below expectation of AUD 9.40B.

                                Retail sales dropped -0.8% mom in February, revised up from preliminary reading of -1.1% mom.

                                Australia AiG manufacturing rose to 59.9 in Mar, highest since 2018

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 59.9 in March, up from 58.8. That’s the highest level since March 2018, and indicates a sixth consecutive month of strong recovery. Looking at some details, production dropped -8.6 to 57.2. Employment rose 8.2 to 66.0. New orders rose 3.6 to 63.5. Exports dropped -2.8 to 51.3. Input prices dropped -2.8 to 71.3. Selling prices rose 8.5 to 59.7.

                                  Ai Group Chief Executive Innes Willox said: “The strong recovery in Australian manufacturing gathered further pace in March with growth across the full range of sectors. Production and sales continued to expand despite pulling back from very rapid rates of growth in February. Employment growth surged with manufacturers’ confidence boosted by buoyant levels of new orders. The machinery & equipment sector benefitted from higher demand from across the industrial, mining and agricultural sectors while the metal products and building equipment sectors supplied into healthy levels of residential construction and infrastructure activity.

                                  “Some growing pains are evident with deliveries of inputs not keeping up with sales of finished products and with reports of skill shortages becoming more widespread. The challenge over the next couple of months will be to maintain momentum as fiscal support is wound back further and while COVID-19 remains a threat.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.6, growing inflationary pressure

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    China Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.6 in March, down from 50.9, missed expectation of 51.0. Markit noted that production increased again amid further uptick in sales. Export orders rose for the first time in three months. Inflationary pressures also picked up.

                                    Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to recover in March, but the momentum of both supply and demand weakened. Overseas demand largely improved. The sector remained under employment pressure. Manufacturing enterprises were still confident that the economy will continue to recover and that the pandemic will be brought under control, with the gauge for future output expectations exceeding the long-term average.

                                    “We should pay attention to inflation in future as the gauges for input and output prices have been rising for several months. The growing inflationary pressure limits the room for future policies and is not a good thing for sustaining an economic recovery in the postepidemic period.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Japan Tankan large manufacturing index rose to 5 in Q1, highest since Q3 2019

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose to 5 in Q1, up from -10, above expectation of 0. That’s also the highest level since Q3 2019. Non-Manufacturing Index rose to -1, up from -5, above expectation of -5. Large Manufacturing Outlook rose to 4, up from -8, matched expectations. Non-Manufacturing Outlook rose to -1, up from -6, above expectation of -2. All industry Capex rose 3.0%, above expectation of 1.4%.

                                      Also released, PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.7 in March, up from February’s 51.4. Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The Japanese manufacturing sector continued to gather some positive momentum at the end of the first quarter of 2021… Beyond the immediate future, Japanese manufacturers were confident that output would continue to rise over the coming 12 months… Currently, IHS Markit estimates that industrial production in Japan will grow 7.7% in 2021, yet this does not fully recover the output lost in 2020.”

                                      US oil inventory dropped -0.9m barrels, WTI struggles to extend rebound

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -0.9m barrels in the week ending March 26, versus expectation of -1.3m. At 501.8m barrels, oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -1.7m barrels. Distillate rose 2.5m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -2.0m barrels. Commercial petroleum inventories dropped -1.3m barrels.

                                        WTI crude oil is still struggling in established range above 57.31. While it’s drawing some support from 55 day EMA, it’s struggling to extend the rebound form 57.31. Focus is now on 62.22 resistance. Firm break there will indicate completion of the correction from 67.83, and bring retest of this high.

                                        Nevertheless, sustained break of the 55 day EMA will indicate that WTI is in a medium term correction. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 33.50 to 67.83 at 54.71 at least, before the correction completes..

                                        Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in Jan, expecting 0.5% mom growth in Feb

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in January, above expectation of 0.5% mom. That’s the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Yet, total economic activity remained about -3% below February 2020 level, before the pandemic. Good-producing industries were up 1.5% mom while services-producing industries were up 0.4% mom. 20 industrial sectors were nearly evenly split between expansions and contractions.

                                          Preliminary information suggests an approximate 0.5% increase in real GDP for February. Retail trade, construction, and real estate and rental and leasing all contributed to the growth, while manufacturing offset some of the increase.

                                          Full release here.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2025 All rights reserved.