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Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in Jan, expecting 0.5% mom growth in Feb

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    ActionForex
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    Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in January, above expectation of 0.5% mom. That’s the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Yet, total economic activity remained about -3% below February 2020 level, before the pandemic. Good-producing industries were up 1.5% mom while services-producing industries were up 0.4% mom. 20 industrial sectors were nearly evenly split between expansions and contractions.

    Preliminary information suggests an approximate 0.5% increase in real GDP for February. Retail trade, construction, and real estate and rental and leasing all contributed to the growth, while manufacturing offset some of the increase.

    Full release here.

    US ADP jobs grew 517k, strongest since last Sep

      By
      ActionForex
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      US ADP employment grew 517k in March, below expectation of 550k. By company size, small businesses added 174k jobs, medium businesses added 188k, large businesses added 155k. By sector, goods-producing jobs grew 80k, service-providing grew 437k.

      “We saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Job growth in the service sector significantly outpaced its recent monthly average, led with notable increase by the leisure and hospitality industry. This sector has the most opportunity to improve as the economy continues to gradually reopen and the vaccine is made more widely available. We are continuing to keep a close watch on the hardest hit sectors but the groundwork is being laid for a further boost in the monthly pace of hiring in the months ahead.”

      Full release here.

      ECB Lagarde: We have exceptional circumstances to deal with at the moment

        By
        ActionForex
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        ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a Bloomberg TV interview, “we have exceptional circumstances to deal with at the moment and we have exceptional tools to use at the moment, and a battery of those. We will use them as and when needed in order to deliver on our mandate and deliver on our pledge to the economy.”

        “Given the exceptional situation that we are facing we are using maximum flexibility” with the EUR 1.85T PEPP purchases program, she added. The March 2022 deadline of the program was not “set in stone”, and policy makers will give “sufficient early notice to avoid the anxiety, the tantrum, or any of those movements” that have happened in the past.

        Overall, Lagarde said, “we have an economic situation overall which in this part of the world, Europe, is really marked by uncertainty. What monetary policy has to do and what the ECB has to do is to provide as much certainty as possible.”

        Eurozone CPI jumped to 1.3% yoy in Mar, but core CPI slowed to 0.9% yoy

          By
          ActionForex
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          Eurozone CPI jumped to 1.3% yoy in March, up from 0.9% yoy, above expectation of 0.9% yoy. However, CPI core dropped to 0.9% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy, missed expectation of 1.1% yoy.

          Energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (4.3%, compared with -1.7% in February), followed by services (1.3%, compared with 1.2% in February), food, alcohol & tobacco (1.1%, compared with 1.3% in February) and non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, compared with 1.0% in February).

          Full release here.

          UK Q4 GDP finalized at 1.3% qoq, contracted -9.8% in a 2020 as a whole

            By
            ActionForex
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            UK GDP growth was finalized 1.3% qoq in Q4, revised up from 1.0% qoq. The level of GDP was still -7.3% below it’s Q4, 2019 level, prior to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Over the year as a whole, GDP contracted -9.8% in 2020, slightly revised from first estimate of -9.9% decline. That is the largest annual fall in UK GDP on record.

            Full release here.

            France CPI jumped to 1.1% yoy in Mar, consumer spending flat in Feb

              By
              ActionForex
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              France CPI accelerated to 1.1% yoy in March, up from February’s 0.6% yoy. This increase in inflation should result from the acceleration in the service prices and from a marked rebound of those of the energy.

              Consumer spending was flat in February, below expectation of 1.3% mom rise. The increase in manufactured goods purchases (+3.4%) was offset by a drop in energy expenditure (-3.1%) and food consumption (-2.2%).

              New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -4.1, demand overshoot wanes

                By
                ActionForex
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                New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -4.1 in March, comparing to preliminary reading at 0, and down from February’s 7. Own Activity Outlook dropped to 16.6 (prelim. at 17.4), down from 21.3. Export intentions dropped to 4.5, down from 5.1. Investment intentions dropped to 11.9, down from 15.6. Employment intentions rose to 14.4, up from 10.6. Pricing intentions rose to 47.3, up from 46.2.

                ANZ said: “The March snap lockdowns make Business Outlook data a little harder to interpret. However, it is consistent with our view that as the demand overshoot wanes and the tourists are missed more and more, the economy will go largely sideways this year. The quicker cooling we now expect in the housing market plays into this theme as well. The vaccine rollout and the subsequent border re-opening will be game-changers, though it won’t be click-of-a-switch stuff. But there’s a path to the new normal, whatever precisely that looks like, and we’re on it. We’ll be keeping an eye on construction for possible bumps in the road.”

                Full release here.

                Japan industrial production dropped -2.1% mom in Feb, more contraction expected in Mar

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Japan industrial production dropped -2.1% mom in February, worse than expectation of -1.3% mom. In addition to pandemic restrictions, production was disrupted by the 7.3-earthquake off the coast of eastern Japan on February 13.

                  Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expected output to drop another -1.9% mom in March, followed by 9.3% mom rebound in April. But the actual figure could be worse as the impact of the March 19 fire at a Renesas Electronics chip-making plant was not reflected in the forecasts yet.

                  China PMI manufacturing rose to 51.9, PMI non-manufacturing rose to 56.3

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    China official PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.9 in March, up from 50.6, above expectation of 51.0. That’s also the highest level in 2021. 17 of the 21 industries saw expansion in the month. New order index rose 2.1 pts to 53.6. New export orders rose 2.4 pts to 51.1. PMI Non-Manufacturing jumped to 56.3, up from 51.4, above expectation of 52.6. PMI Composite rose to 55.3, up from 51.6.

                    “After the Lunar New Year, the recovery of production accelerated, and the manufacturing industry rebounded significantly in March,” said Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS. “As the results of pandemic controls being consolidated, consumer demand continues to be released, and the service industry accelerated its recovery.”

                    Fed officials optimistic on strong recovery ahead

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Some Fed official expressed their optimism over the economic recovery ahead. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “we could see a burst of activity and performance coming into the summer which could lead us to see even more robust recovery.” He’s upbeat about the economy, as “a million jobs a month could become the standard through the summer.”

                      Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he’s “bullish” on the economy this year. “People just have a lot of money in their pockets,” he said. The money will be spent as people are comfortable to go out again. that would help fuel growth into 2022 and 2023 too.

                      New York Fed President John Williams said he’s “optimism about the overall economy”, as “we’re making great strides on the vaccination program”. Also, “we have a lot of positives going forward.”

                      Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles said he’s “one of the biggest optimist” on the economy. Yet, “we shouldn’t jump the gun. Let’s wait until we see those outcomes,” he added. “And clearly the performance of the macro economy, and the performance of monetary policy, not just over the last decade but really even 15, 20 years, would argue that that leads to superior outcomes.”

                      US consumer confidence rose to 109.7, highest in a year

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped to 109.7 in March, up from 90.4, well above expectation of 96.0. That’s the highest level since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. Present Situation Index rose form 89.6 to 110.0. Expectations index rose from 90.9 to 109.6.

                        Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their short-term outlook improved significantly, an indication that economic growth is likely to strengthen further in the coming months. Consumers’ renewed optimism boosted their purchasing intentions for homes, autos and several big-ticket items. However, concerns of inflation in the short-term rose, most likely due to rising prices at the pump, and may temper spending intentions in the months ahead.”

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone economic sentiment jumped to 101, back above long-term average

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) jumped to 101 in March, up from 93.4, above expectation of 96. It’s now slightly above its long-term average since the pandemic began. Employment Expectations Indicator jumped 6.8 pts to 97.7. Looking at some more details, industrial confidence rose form -3.1 to 2.0, turned positive. Services confidence rose form -17.0 to -9.3. Consumer confidence rose from -14.8 to -10.8. Retail trade confidence rose from -1.1 to -12.2. Construction confidence rose from -7.5 to -2.7.

                          EU ESI rose 6.9 pts to 100.0, back at long-term average. Amongst the largest EU economies, Germany stood out with the largest monthly improvement of its ESI on record (+7.9) and is currently the only of the ‘big-6’ countries where sentiment returned to above its long-term average. The monthly increases in sentiment in the other big countries were nevertheless very significant, too: Spain (+6.2), France (+5.4), Italy (+4.9), the Netherlands (+4.4), Poland (+3.3).

                          Full release here.

                          Swiss KOF rose to 117.8, highest since 2020, rapid recovery ahead

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 117.8 in March, up from 102.7, well above expectation of 104.3. The index is now “as high as it was last in summer 2010”, signal a “rapid economic recovery for the coming months”.

                            KOF said the improvement is “largely due to the indicators from the Swiss manufacturing industry”. The other groups of indicators, both for domestic and foreign demand, all signal a positive development, albeit significantly weaker.

                            Full release here.

                            AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY following yields higher, to retest recent highs

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Yen crosses are generally following treasury yields higher today. While USD/JPY is extending recent up trend and is set to take on 110 handle, some attention would also be on commodity Yen crosses.

                              AUD/JPY’s corrective pull back from 85.43 should have completed at 82.27 already, with strong break of 4 hour 55 EMA. Retest of 85.34 could be seen as the current rebound extends. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, at the first attempt. Price actions from 85.43 could be a near term corrective pattern with at least one more down leg. But even in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 73.13 to 85.43 at 80.73 to contain downside. Sustained break of 85.43 would resume whole up trend form 59.89.

                              NZD/JPY’s picture is similar. Corrective pull back from 79.12 should have completed at 75.61. Stronger rebound could be seen back to retest 79.19/12 resistance. Yet, the corrective pattern might still extend with another falling leg, to take on 38.2% retracement of 68.86 to 79.12 at 75.20, before completion. Though, firm break of 79.12 will resume larger up trend form 59.49.

                              US yields jumped again on vaccination optimism

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                US long term treasury yields jumped again overnight, with 10-year yield closed up 0.061 at 1.721, 30-year yield gained 0.057 to 2.424. Sentiments were positive on vaccine rollouts and return-to-normal in the US. President Joe Biden announced that the “vast, vast majority of adults”, 90%, will be eligible for coronavirus vaccine by April 19. Participating pharmacies will also more than double to 40k.

                                10-year yield’s strong rally yesterday suggests that 1.585 near term support was defended well after last week’s retreat. While upside momentum diminished as seen in daily MACD, there is no sign of a change in up trend yet. Current rally is still on track to 2% handle, which is close t 1.971 resistance and 55 month EMA.

                                BoJ Kuroda: Absolutely not that case of exiting ultra-loose policy

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated in an interview with the Japan Daily, the central bank had “absolutely no play” to stop ETF purchases, or unload its holdings. “We will continue to buy ETFs flexibly and in a nimble fashion, so it’s absolutely not the case that we are exiting ultra-loose monetary policy”, he added.

                                  Separately from Japan, retail sales dropped -1.6% yoy in February, better than expectation of -2.8% yoy. That’s still the third straight month of annual decline. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.9%, better than expectation of a rise to 3.0%.

                                  Gold breaking down, heading back to 1676 support

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Gold drops notably in early US session and it’s now heading back to 1700 handle. Current development argues that corrective recovery from 1676.65 has completed at 1755.29, ahead of 1764.31 support turned resistance. It’s also held well below falling 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. Corrective fall from 2075.18 is likely still in progress.

                                    Break of 1676.65 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1617.67. We’ll look for bottoming signals again there.

                                    Bitcoin jumps as Visa accepts USDC for settlement, a new high ahead

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Bitcoin gaps up as the week opened and surges to as high as 57454 so far. it’s lifted by news of Visa Inc’s move to allow use of the cryptocurrency USD Coin (USDC) to settle transactions on its payment network. While the USDC is a stablecoin pegged directly to US Dollar, Visa is on track to acceptance of digital currencies.

                                      “We see increasing demand from consumers across the world to be able to access, hold and use digital currencies and we’re seeing demand from our clients to be able to build products that provide that access for consumers,” Cuy Sheffield, head of crypto at Visa, said.

                                      Bitcoin’s correction from 60726 record could have completed with three waves down to 50320. Further rise is now in favor as long as 54841 support holds, for a new high. But we’d note that loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Hence, the upside break cold be brief and marginal.

                                      EUR/GBP downside breakout, is GBP/CHF following?

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Sterling rises broadly in early part of European session, with downside breakout in EUR/GBP. The break of 0.8537 support confirms resumption of the fall from 0.9291, as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499 high. Deeper decline would now be seen towards 0.8276 key long term support level.

                                        One focus is now 1.2985 short term top in GBP/CHF. Decisive break there will resume the whole medium term rise from 1.1102. In the case, next target will be 161.8% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.3555. Upside acceleration in GBP/CHF could help push EUR/GPB through above mentioned 0.8276 key support level. We’ll see how it goes.

                                        Ifo: Eurozone economy to contract slightly by -0.4% in Q1, then recovers from Q2 onwards

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Germany’s Ifo institute said short term perspectives for Eurozone economy are “highly uncertain”. On the one hand, “the start of the vaccination campaigns gives some reason for optimism”. But on the other hand, “from the beginning of March onwards the pandemic situation has started to worsen almost everywhere with a reappraisal of the containment measures in some countries.”

                                          Overall, Ifo expected that these negatives will have “only a transitory effect of the economy”. Eurozone GDP is expected to contract slightly by -0.4% qoq in Q1, then to recover from Q2 onwards, by 1.5% qoq, and then 2.2% qoq in Q3.

                                          Full report here.

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