Swiss KOF rose to 117.8, highest since 2020, rapid recovery ahead

    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 117.8 in March, up from 102.7, well above expectation of 104.3. The index is now “as high as it was last in summer 2010”, signal a “rapid economic recovery for the coming months”.

    KOF said the improvement is “largely due to the indicators from the Swiss manufacturing industry”. The other groups of indicators, both for domestic and foreign demand, all signal a positive development, albeit significantly weaker.

    Full release here.

    AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY following yields higher, to retest recent highs

      Yen crosses are generally following treasury yields higher today. While USD/JPY is extending recent up trend and is set to take on 110 handle, some attention would also be on commodity Yen crosses.

      AUD/JPY’s corrective pull back from 85.43 should have completed at 82.27 already, with strong break of 4 hour 55 EMA. Retest of 85.34 could be seen as the current rebound extends. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, at the first attempt. Price actions from 85.43 could be a near term corrective pattern with at least one more down leg. But even in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 73.13 to 85.43 at 80.73 to contain downside. Sustained break of 85.43 would resume whole up trend form 59.89.

      NZD/JPY’s picture is similar. Corrective pull back from 79.12 should have completed at 75.61. Stronger rebound could be seen back to retest 79.19/12 resistance. Yet, the corrective pattern might still extend with another falling leg, to take on 38.2% retracement of 68.86 to 79.12 at 75.20, before completion. Though, firm break of 79.12 will resume larger up trend form 59.49.

      US yields jumped again on vaccination optimism

        US long term treasury yields jumped again overnight, with 10-year yield closed up 0.061 at 1.721, 30-year yield gained 0.057 to 2.424. Sentiments were positive on vaccine rollouts and return-to-normal in the US. President Joe Biden announced that the “vast, vast majority of adults”, 90%, will be eligible for coronavirus vaccine by April 19. Participating pharmacies will also more than double to 40k.

        10-year yield’s strong rally yesterday suggests that 1.585 near term support was defended well after last week’s retreat. While upside momentum diminished as seen in daily MACD, there is no sign of a change in up trend yet. Current rally is still on track to 2% handle, which is close t 1.971 resistance and 55 month EMA.

        BoJ Kuroda: Absolutely not that case of exiting ultra-loose policy

          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated in an interview with the Japan Daily, the central bank had “absolutely no play” to stop ETF purchases, or unload its holdings. “We will continue to buy ETFs flexibly and in a nimble fashion, so it’s absolutely not the case that we are exiting ultra-loose monetary policy”, he added.

          Separately from Japan, retail sales dropped -1.6% yoy in February, better than expectation of -2.8% yoy. That’s still the third straight month of annual decline. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.9%, better than expectation of a rise to 3.0%.

          Gold breaking down, heading back to 1676 support

            Gold drops notably in early US session and it’s now heading back to 1700 handle. Current development argues that corrective recovery from 1676.65 has completed at 1755.29, ahead of 1764.31 support turned resistance. It’s also held well below falling 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. Corrective fall from 2075.18 is likely still in progress.

            Break of 1676.65 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1617.67. We’ll look for bottoming signals again there.

            Bitcoin jumps as Visa accepts USDC for settlement, a new high ahead

              Bitcoin gaps up as the week opened and surges to as high as 57454 so far. it’s lifted by news of Visa Inc’s move to allow use of the cryptocurrency USD Coin (USDC) to settle transactions on its payment network. While the USDC is a stablecoin pegged directly to US Dollar, Visa is on track to acceptance of digital currencies.

              “We see increasing demand from consumers across the world to be able to access, hold and use digital currencies and we’re seeing demand from our clients to be able to build products that provide that access for consumers,” Cuy Sheffield, head of crypto at Visa, said.

              Bitcoin’s correction from 60726 record could have completed with three waves down to 50320. Further rise is now in favor as long as 54841 support holds, for a new high. But we’d note that loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Hence, the upside break cold be brief and marginal.

              EUR/GBP downside breakout, is GBP/CHF following?

                Sterling rises broadly in early part of European session, with downside breakout in EUR/GBP. The break of 0.8537 support confirms resumption of the fall from 0.9291, as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499 high. Deeper decline would now be seen towards 0.8276 key long term support level.

                One focus is now 1.2985 short term top in GBP/CHF. Decisive break there will resume the whole medium term rise from 1.1102. In the case, next target will be 161.8% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.3555. Upside acceleration in GBP/CHF could help push EUR/GPB through above mentioned 0.8276 key support level. We’ll see how it goes.

                Ifo: Eurozone economy to contract slightly by -0.4% in Q1, then recovers from Q2 onwards

                  Germany’s Ifo institute said short term perspectives for Eurozone economy are “highly uncertain”. On the one hand, “the start of the vaccination campaigns gives some reason for optimism”. But on the other hand, “from the beginning of March onwards the pandemic situation has started to worsen almost everywhere with a reappraisal of the containment measures in some countries.”

                  Overall, Ifo expected that these negatives will have “only a transitory effect of the economy”. Eurozone GDP is expected to contract slightly by -0.4% qoq in Q1, then to recover from Q2 onwards, by 1.5% qoq, and then 2.2% qoq in Q3.

                  Full report here.

                  BoJ opinions: Important to firmly continue with pandemic policy responses

                    In the Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s March 18-19 meeting, it’s said, “for the time being, it is important for the Bank to firmly continue with policy responses to the impact of COVID-19. The Bank should continue to provide support for financing, mainly of firms, and ensure stability in financial markets.”

                    BoJ’s policy actions decided at the meeting “have ensured the sustainability and nimbleness of policy measures that are necessary to achieve the price stability target”. And, it’s “desirable” for the framework to continue to be the basic guideline for “a few years to come”.

                    Long-term interest rates were allowed to move in a wider range of plus and minus 0.25%. “This flexibility is desirable since it prevents arbitrageurs and speculators who had lost their profit opportunities from exiting the bond market and helps maintain the price stabilization function in the market.”

                    The revision on ETFS purchases were made “to conduct purchases more effectively”. It’s necessary to “avoid a misunderstanding that the Bank has adopted a less accommodative stance on monetary policy.

                    The “inflation-overshooting commitment” implies that monetary easing will be continued for a “long period”. As a “deflationary risk” is a “matter of concern at present”, the commitment shows BoJ’s “strong stance that it will not head toward an exit easily.”

                    Full summary of opinions here.

                    ECB Lane: There is clear risk of self-fulfilling adverse dynamics

                      ECB chief economist Philip Lane said in a speech over the weekend, “there is a clear risk of self-fulfilling adverse dynamics taking hold through which uncertain economic prospects induce households, firms and governments to hold back on expenditure plans, leading to a decline in overall demand that validates the loss in confidence about the future.”

                      The risk is “compounded by the danger of real financial amplification channels by which lenders (banks or bond investors) become reluctant to lend and borrowers (households, firms or governments) become reluctant to take on debt because they fear that lower growth prospects would be amplified by declining creditworthiness and a tighter credit supply.”

                      Hence, “it is essential that the ECB acts as a stabilising force and boost confidence by committing to the preservation of favourable financing conditions.” The commitment is delivered through the “full set of monetary policy instruments, including low policy rate and forward guidance, the APP asset purchase program, the PEPP pandemic emergency purchase program, the calibration of the TLTRO III, and the collatural policies.

                      Full speech here.

                      US person income dropped -7.1% in Feb, spending down -1.0%

                        US personal income dropped -7.1% in February, or USD -1517B, close to expectation of -7.2%. Spending dropped -1.0%, or USD -149B, below expectation of -0.8%.

                        Headline PCE price index accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.4% yoy, matched expectation of 1.6% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed to 1.4% yoy, down from 1.5% yoy, missed expectation of 1.5% yoy.

                        Full release here.

                        Germany Ifo business climate rose to 96.6, highest since Jun 2019

                          Germany Ifo Business Climate rose to 96.6 in March, up from 92.7, above expectation of 93.0. That’s also the highest level since June 2019. Current Assessment index rose to 93.0, up from 90.6, above expectation of 92.4. Expectations index also rose to 100.4, up from 94.2, above expectation of 95.0.

                          By sector, manufacturing rose from 16.4 to 24.1, highest since November 2010. Service rose from -2.2 to 6.5. Trade rose from -14.6 to -1.4. Construction rose from -2.8 to 2.3.

                          Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute, said: “Companies were clearly more satisfied with their current business situation. Optimism about the coming months has also returned. Despite the rising rate of infections, the German economy is entering the spring with confidence.”

                          Full release here.

                          UK retail sales rose 2.1% mom in Feb, down -6.3% in the past three months

                            UK retail sales rose 2.1% mom in February, after the steep -8.2% fall seen in the previously month. Annually, sales was down by -3.7% yoy. In the three month so February, sales dropped -6.3% 3mo3m, with strong decline in both clothing stores and other non-food stores.

                            Full release here.

                            Fed Evans: It might be 2024 before raising interest rate

                              Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “I suspect that it might be 2024 before we actually raise the interest rate target.” “Inflation is going to be the real test for whether or not it’s time to lift off.” A burst of inflation for six months is “not nearly enough,” he added. “Patience is something we are going to have to grapple with, probably”. “We should be comfortable with a sustainable 2.5% inflation rate for a year; I don’t really get nervous until it starts creeping up to 3%, and even then, I’d like to know how that’s how that’s being achieved,” Evans said.

                              Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said there will be a “spike” in inflation this year, and “the numbers are hard to doubt”. But, “I do think you’ll see a return closer to normal next year, and then we’ll go from there. … You’re not going to see extended fiscal stimulus next year, you are not going to see these supply chain disruptions next year, and so some of the things that will be driving prices this year just won’t be in the mix next year.”

                              Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “we are always on the lookout for runaway inflation, but right now we are just not seeing it.”

                              EU von der Leyen: We’re at the start of third wave of pandemic

                                At a press conference after a virtual summit of EU leaders, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “we are at the start of the third wave in Europe, and in many European member states, infections are on the rise again, mostly due to the variant B117.” The situation “highlights the importance of a fast and speedy vaccination” on which EU leaders agreed.

                                She added that the delivery of vaccines for Q2 is promising, and, “we are on track to achieve our goal, that this summer we want to have 70% of the adult population in the European Union vaccinated.”

                                Separately, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said, “if a high percentage of the population is vaccinated and immunized in the summer, this will have a very positive impact and lead to a second half of the year in which there could be a very strong rebound in activity.”

                                US initial jobless claims dropped to 684k, continuing claims down to 3.9m

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped -97k to 684k in the week ending March 20. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -13k to 736k.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -264k to 3870 in the week ending March 13. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -137k to 4121k.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Fed Powell: 2021 going to be strong than previously though on a combination of better developments

                                    In an NPR radio interview, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said 2021 going to be stronger than previously thought, because of a “combination of better developments” including vaccines and fiscal stimulus.

                                    “As we make substantial further progress towards our goals we will gradually roll back” the asset purchase program. He emphasized, the “process will take place with the greatest transparency.” And that would only happen “when the economy is all but fully recovered.”

                                    On other topics, Powell said, “level of debt today is not unsustainable, no question of US being able to service its debt right now.” “Climate change is an important issue we will be dealing with for a long time with significant economic implications.”

                                    Full interview here.

                                    SNB keeps policy rate at -0.75%, upgrades inflation forecasts

                                      SNB keeps policy rate and interest on sight deposits at -0.75% as widely expected. The central bank said “it remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.”

                                      New conditional inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were revised higher. This is “‘primarily due to the rise in oil prices and the weaker Swiss franc”. But, “looking beyond the two-year horizon, the inflation forecast is virtually unchanged compared with December”. The forecasts now stands at 0.2% for 2021, 0.4% for 2022 and 0.5% for 2023.

                                      SNB expects the GDP growth of 2.5-3.0% for 2021. Activity is likely to return to its pre-crisis level in the second half of the year. But production capacity will remain underutilized for some time yet.

                                      Full statement here.

                                      Germany Gfk consumer climate rose to -6.2, just a flash in the pan

                                        Germany Gfk Consumer Climate for April improved to -6.2, up from -12.7, above expectation of -11.8. For March, economic expectations rose from 8.0 to 17.7. Income expectations rose from 6.5 to 22.3. Propensity to buy also rose from 7.4 to 12.3.

                                        Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert: “The hard lockdown will severely damage consumer confidence and the current improvement will remain a flash in the pan. A sustained recovery in consumer confidence will continue to be a long time coming — which means difficult times ahead for retailers and manufacturers.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoE Haldane: When recovery comes, it will come fast and large

                                          Asked by in ITV’s Robert Peston Show on whether the UK will have the fastest recovery for a century, BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane said, “yes, as it was the sharpest recession to begin with”.

                                          Haldane explained that people are “desperate to get their lives back, desperate to get out spending and socializing and working.” .

                                          About GBP 150B has been saved over the past year, mostly by higher income house holds. “If some of those savings do get spent, even a small amount of them, we’re talking abut a pretty rip roaring recovery.”

                                          “When it comes, it will come fast, and it will be large.”

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