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US Jobless Claims Rise to 209K, but Continuing Claims Ease
US initial jobless claims rose from a revised 200K to 209K in week ending August 8, above 202K consensus, adding another mildly softer signal. Increase was 9K on week, while four-week moving average held unchanged at 199K, suggesting latest rise is noticeable but not yet evidence of a sharp deterioration in layoffs.
Continuing claims moved in opposite direction. Insured unemployment fell from a revised 1.799M to 1.777M in week ending August 1, while four-week average declined from a revised 1.79075M to 1.7855M. Insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%. That suggests labor market is not weakening uniformly: new claims picked up, but those already unemployed were not becoming more numerous.
Initial claims above expectations fit broader evidence that labor conditions have softened, but stable four-week claims and lower continuing claims argue against reading one week as a clear acceleration in job losses.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | 209K | 202K | 200K |
| Initial Claims 4-Week Average | 199K | — | 199K |
| Continuing Claims | 1.777M | — | 1.799M |
| Continuing Claims 4-Week Average | 1.7855M | — | 1.79075M |
| Insured Unemployment Rate | 1.2% | — | 1.2% |
Key Takeaways
- Initial jobless claims rose from revised 200K to 209K, above 202K consensus, providing another mildly softer labor-market signal.
- Four-week average of initial claims was unchanged at 199K, indicating latest increase has not yet developed into a sustained rise in layoffs.
- Continuing claims fell from revised 1.799M to 1.777M, while their four-week average declined to 1.7855M.
- Insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%.
- Overall report is mixed rather than decisively weak: new claims increased, but continuing claims and their trend improved.
US PPI Slows to 4.7% Y/Y as July Prices Come in Flat
US producer inflation came in softer than expected at headline level in July, reinforcing evidence that price pressures from first oil shock are fading. PPI improved from a revised -0.1% to 0.0% m/m, below 0.2% consensus. Annual rate slowed sharply from 5.5% to 4.7%, undershooting 4.9% expected. Weakness was concentrated in goods, where prices fell -0.7% m/m, while final-demand services rose 0.2% and construction prices jumped 2.2%.
Goods breakdown was particularly soft. Energy prices fell -3.1% m/m and food declined -0.9%, while goods excluding food and energy rose just 0.1%. Services were firmer but uneven: trade services slipped -0.1% and transportation and warehousing fell -1.8%, while other services rose 0.6%. One caution came from Fed’s preferred underlying producer-price gauge excluding food, energy and trade services, which accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4% m/m, even as annual rate eased from 5.0% to 4.7%.
Overall, release strengthens case that headline pipeline inflation is cooling, but it is not an entirely dovish report. Falling energy prices did much of work at goods level, while underlying monthly measure accelerated. Combined with this week’s softer CPI, data further reduce immediate need for another Fed hike, but policymakers will be reluctant to declare victory before August figures capture latest rebound in oil prices.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| PPI y/y | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| Final Demand Goods m/m | -0.7% | — | -1.4% |
| Final Demand Services m/m | 0.2% | — | 0.5% |
| Final Demand Construction m/m | 2.2% | — | — |
| Food m/m | -0.9% | — | -0.5% |
| Energy m/m | -3.1% | — | -6.5% |
| Goods ex Food & Energy m/m | 0.1% | — | 0.2% |
| Trade Services m/m | -0.1% | — | 1.4% |
| Transportation & Warehousing m/m | -1.8% | — | -0.5% |
| Other Services m/m | 0.6% | — | 0.2% |
| PPI ex Food, Energy & Trade m/m | 0.4% | — | 0.1% |
| PPI ex Food, Energy & Trade y/y | 4.7% | — | 5.0% |
Key Takeaways
- US PPI came in softer than expected in July, moving from -0.1% to 0.0% m/m versus 0.2% expected, while annual rate slowed from 5.5% to 4.7%.
- Goods prices were main drag, falling 0.7% m/m, led by a 3.1% drop in energy and 0.9% decline in food.
- Services were firmer at 0.2% m/m, while construction prices rose 2.2%.
- Underlying picture was less dovish than headline: PPI excluding food, energy and trade services accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4% m/m, even as annual rate eased to 4.7%.
- Trade services fell 0.1% and transportation and warehousing dropped 1.8%, offsetting some strength in other services.
- Release supports case for a September Fed hold, but August PPI will be more important for judging whether renewed oil strength feeds back into broader producer costs.
Eurozone Industrial Production Stalls in June as Capital Goods Weigh
Eurozone industrial production lost momentum in June, slowing from 0.3% to 0.0% m/m, while EU output eased from 0.3% to 0.2%. On annual basis, production was only 0.1% higher y/y in Eurozone and 0.6% higher in EU, underscoring that industrial recovery remains subdued despite recent improvement in survey indicators. Headline Eurozone reading also fell slightly short of expectations for a 0.1% monthly increase.
Breakdown showed considerable divergence across sectors. In Eurozone, intermediate goods fell -0.8% m/m and capital goods dropped -1.4%, offsetting gains of 1.5% in energy, 0.3% in durable consumer goods and a strong 3.0% rise in non-durable consumer goods. EU showed similar pattern, with intermediate goods down -0.7% and capital goods down -0.9%, while energy rose 1.0%, durable consumer goods 0.9% and non-durables 2.5%. At country level, Denmark led gains at 5.4%, followed by Croatia at 5.2%, while Luxembourg posted a sharp 10.7% decline.
Overall, June figures suggest Europe’s industrial sector is stabilizing rather than entering a convincing rebound. Weakness in capital and intermediate goods is particularly notable because it points to continued softness in investment- and production-chain demand, even as consumer-related categories performed better. That contrasts with stronger July PMI readings and suggests hard data are still lagging improvement in business surveys, leaving ECB with a mixed growth backdrop rather than clear evidence of either renewed industrial weakness or broad-based acceleration.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone Industrial Production m/m | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Eurozone Intermediate Goods m/m | -0.8% | — | -0.2% |
| Eurozone Energy m/m | 1.5% | — | 2.6% |
| Eurozone Capital Goods m/m | -1.4% | — | 0.5% |
| Eurozone Durable Consumer Goods m/m | 0.3% | — | -1.3% |
| Eurozone Non-Durable Consumer Goods m/m | 3.0% | — | 3.3% |
Key Takeaways
- Eurozone industrial production slowed from 0.3% to 0.0% m/m in June, slightly missing expectations for 0.1% growth.
- EU production also lost momentum, easing from 0.3% to 0.2% m/m.
- Annual growth remained weak, at just 0.1% in Eurozone and 0.6% across EU.
- Eurozone breakdown was uneven: capital goods fell -1.4% and intermediate goods dropped -0.8%, while energy rose 1.5%.
- Non-durable consumer goods were strongest category, rising 3.0% m/m, while durable consumer goods gained 0.3%.
- June data suggest industry is stabilizing rather than entering a convincing recovery, with hard production data still lagging recent improvement in Eurozone PMI surveys.