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WTI resumes up trend after brief consolidations, targeting 65.4

    By
    ActionForex
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    WTI oil resumes recent up trend after brief consolidation and hits as high as 62.70 so far in Asian session. It’s believed that restoration of US oil production after the deep freeze in Texas could take longer than expected. With possible pipeline freeze and work on examination oil infrastructure, resumption in output could take more than just days.

    Near term outlook in WTI will now stay bullish as long as 58.57 support holds. Next target is 65.43 key long term structure resistance.

    Australia goods exports dropped -9% mom in Jan, imports down -10% mom

      By
      ActionForex
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      Australia exports of goods dropped -9% mom to AUD 32.1B in January. The decline was led by 10% mom fall in export of metalliferous ores. Imports of goods also dropped -10% mom to AUD 23.4B, driven by -23% mom fall in road vehicles imports. Trades surplus narrowed slightly to AUD 8.75B, down from AUD 9.18B.

      “The decline in metalliferous ores was driven by a decline in the quantity of iron ore exported in January. Despite the decline, exports of Metalliferous ores are the second highest on record behind December 2020,” Head of International Statistics at the ABS, Andrew Tomadini said. “A drop in global car manufacturing is leading to supply shortages, with the imports of road vehicles from Japan and Thailand, Australia’s two largest road vehicle source countries, driving the decline in January imports”.

      Full release here.

      New Zealand retail sales dropped -2.7% qoq in Q4

        By
        ActionForex
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        New Zealand retail sales dropped -2.7% qoq in Q4, below expectation of -0.5% qoq. Ex-auto sales dropped -3.1% qoq, versus expectation of -0.6% qoq. That same after strong reboun dof 27.8% qoq in retail sales in Q3.

        Nevertheless, comparing to Q4 2019, total value of retail sales rose 4.9% yoy. Total volume of sales rose 4.8% yoy. 13 of the 16 regions showed higher sales values.

        Full release here.

        BoE Vlieghe: Interest rate may not go back to 4-5% level in my lifetime

          By
          ActionForex
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          BoE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe said yesterday, 1970s and 1980xs were the “unusual decades” when “interest rates were unusually high then”. Asked if interest rates might return to the levels of 4-5% before the financial crisis, he said “maybe not in my lifetime”.

          “It doesn’t mean that interest rates don’t go up from current levels. It just means that when they go up, they don’t go back to 4 or 5%”, he added.

          ECB Villeroy: We’re watching long rates closely

            By
            ActionForex
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            ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau echoed President Christine Lagarde’s comments regarding monitoring the developments in bond yields.

            “We are watching long rates closely as it is an important element of favorable financial conditions,” he told BFM Business TV. “Financing conditions remain very favorable — France is financing itself for 10 years at -0.1% tonight — but we will ensure they remain favorable.”

            Villeroy also said that there is no risk of overheating in the Eurozone economy. Also, there’s no risk of a lasting pick up of inflation.

            Lagarde: ECB closely monitoring evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields

              By
              ActionForex
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              In a speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank’s commitment to preserve favorable financing condition to support all sectors of the economy implies “looking at indicators along the whole transmission chain of our monetary policy – from risk-free rates to government borrowing costs to capital markets to bank lending for firms and households.”

              “Within the broad-based set of indicators that we monitor to assess whether financing conditions are still favourable, risk-free overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates and sovereign yields are particularly important”. Accordingly, she added, “the ECB is closely monitoring the evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields.”

              Full speech here.

              Bitcoin break 50k as correction starts, support expected between 46-49k

                By
                ActionForex
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                Bitcoin’s correction has finally started today, probably in reaction to Elon Musk that “BTC & ETH do seem high lol” over the weekend. The strong break of 52672 support and the near term channel confirms short term topping at 57529, on bearish divergence condition in H and 4H MACD.

                Nevertheless, we’re not expecting a much deeper pull back. Strong support would likely be seen between 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 49179) and 38.2% retracement of 29283 to 57529 at 46739 to contain downside. Though, the consolidation would continue for a while in the near term, before another record run.

                German Ifo business climate rose to 92.4, manufacturing at best since 2018

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Germany Ifo Business Climate rose to 92.4 in February, up from 90.3, above expectation of 90.5. Current Assessment index rose to 90.6, up from 89.2, above expectation of 88.9. Expectations index rose to 94.2, up from 91.5, above expectation of 91.9.

                  Looking at some details, manufacturing index rose from 9.1 to 16.1, highest since November 2018. Services rose from -4.4 to -2.2. Trade rose from -17.2 to -14.6. Construction rose from -4.9 to -3.6.

                  Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute, said “the German economy is proving robust despite the lockdown, especially thanks to strength in industry.”

                  Full release here.

                  A look at EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF and CHF/JPY as selloff in Swiss Franc intensifies

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    Swiss Franc’s broad based selloff intensifies in European session. EUIR/CHF break of 1.0890 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.0915 has completed. Firm break of 1.0915 will resume whole rebound from 1.0503 to 61.8% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0737 at 1.0992. That would put 1.1059 key resistance into focus.

                    GBP/CHF also hits as high as 1.2625 so far, with eyes on near term channel resistance (now at 1.2645). Decisive break there will indicate further upside acceleration for 100% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.2840. Strong break there will raise affirm the case that rise from 1.1102 is an impulsive move that’s starting a long term up trend.

                    Development in CHF/JPY could help gauge the intensity of Swiss Franc’s coming moving. While it retreated after hitting 118.59 long term resistance, outlook stays bullish with 116.20 support intact. However, firm break of 116.20 will confirm rejection by 118.59 and turn near term outlook bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 114.70) and possibly below. . That could give additional pressure to the Swiss Franc elsewhere.

                      

                    Bitcoin kept well inside near term channel, 58843 next

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      The unstoppable Bitcoin staged another impressive rally last Friday and took out our perceived resistance zone around 53618/54629 without any hesitation. Though, we’re still skeptical on the sustainability of its momentum. Firstly, bearish divergence condition seems to be building up in hourly MACD. Secondly, there appears to be some resistance around mid-point of the near term channel.

                      Nevertheless, current up trend is not under any threat as long as channel support (now at 52671) holds. 100% projection of 37232 to 48263 from 47812 at 58843 is the next target. Firm break there could indeed bring upside re-acceleration for 161.8% projection at 65660.

                      NZD/USD resumes up trend, long term resistance at 0.75

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        NZD/USD’s up trend resumes by breaking through 0.7314 resistance today and hits as high as 0.7337 so far. From a near term perspective, current rise from 0.5469 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6589 to 0.7314 from 0.7156 at 0.7604 next.

                        However, a key cluster resistance at 0.7557, 61.8% retracement of 0.8835 (2014 high) to 0.5469 (2020 low) at 0.7549, comes just before above mentioned 0.7604 projection target. Additionally, RBNZ statement poses a slight risk to the Kiwi, in the sense that it may want to talk down the strong exchange rate.

                        So we’d pay close attention to the momentum of next move. But in any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.7156 support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

                        S&P upgrades New Zealand rating back to AA+/AAA

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          S&P raised New Zealand’s foreign and local currency government debt rating by a notch to AA+ and AAA, up from AA and AA+ respectively. The ratings are back to a level last seen in 2009. A “stable” outlook was attached to the new ratings.

                          “New Zealand is recovering quicker than most advanced economies after the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent government lockdown delivered a severe economic and fiscal shock to the country,” S&P said. “While downside risks persist, such as another outbreak, we expect New Zealand’s fiscal indicators to recover during the next few years.”

                          “This provides us with better clarity over the extent of the pandemic’s damage to the government’s balance sheet,” it said in a statement,” it said, “We now believe that the government’s credit metrics can withstand potential damage from negative shocks to the economy, including a possible weakening of the real estate market”.

                           

                          Fitch affirms Australia rating at AAA with negative outlook

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Fitch Ratings affirmed Australia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at “AAA” with a negative outlook. The rating reflects the country’s “strong institutions and effective policy framework, which supported nearly three decades of economic growth prior to the coronavirus pandemic and helped limit the severity of the current shock”

                            But the negative outlook reflects “uncertainty around the medium-term debt trajectory following the significant rise in public debt/GDP caused by the response to the pandemic.”

                            Fitch estimated that GDP contracted by -2.8% in 2020, versus “AAA” median of -3.8%. Economy is forecast to growth 3.8% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022. It expects closure of international borders to persist until late-2021, which “dampened inward migration”. Trade tension with China “have not had a significant macroeconomic effect”, but remains a medium term risk.

                            Full release here.

                            Canada retail sales dropped -3.4% mom in Dec, down in 9 out of 11 subsectors

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Canada retail sales dropped -3.4% mom to CAD 53.4B in December, below expectation of -2.5% mom. That’s also the worst decline since last April. Ex-auto sales dropped -4.1% mom, below expectation of -2.4% mom.

                              Sales were down in 9 out of 11 subsectors, representing 83.6% of retail sales. Also, sales were down in every province for the first time since April.

                              Full release here.

                              BoE Vlieghe: No further stimulus required if economy evolves as Feb central projections

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                BoE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe said in a speech that “if the economy evolves broadly in line with our February central projection, then in my view it is likely that no further monetary stimulus is required… we will just complete the already announced QE programme”.

                                Though also, “given how low I think the neutral rate of interest is, there is no hurry at all to remove stimulus”, he added. “My preferred path for policy would be to keep the current monetary stimulus in place until well into 2023 or 2024, long enough to judge whether economic slack has indeed been eliminated fully, and inflation has returned to target sustainably, rather than being pushed up by temporary factors.”

                                Full speech here.

                                AUD/CAD resumes up trend, 1.0115 as next near term target

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  AUD/CAD surges to high as 0.9910 so far today and the break of 0.9898 resistance finally confirms resumption of rise from 0.9247. Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.9936 minor support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.9247 to 0.9898 from 0.9713 at 1.0115.

                                  Major focus is indeed on 1.0241 long term resistance down the road. We’re seeing the corrective decline from 1.0784 (2012 high) as completed with three waves down to 0.8058 (2020 low). Rise from 0.8058 could indeed be the third leg of the pattern from 0.7149 (2008 low). A strong break of 1.0231 will raise the chance of further break of 1.0784 in medium term.

                                  UK PMI composite rose to 49.8, welcome signs of steadying

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 54.9 in February, up from 54.1, above expectation of 54.0. PMI Services rose to 49.7, up from 39.5, above expectation of 40.5. PMI Composite rose to 49.8, up from 41.2.

                                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The UK economy showed welcome signs of steadying in February after the severe slump seen in January… In contrast, the manufacturing sector’s performance worsened amid escalating Brexit-related export losses and supply chain disruptions…

                                    “More encouragingly, although the data hint at a renewed contraction of the economy in the first quarter, business expectations for the year ahead improved to the highest for almost seven years, suggesting the economy is poised for recovery. Confidence continued to be lifted by hopes that the vaccine roll-out will allow virus related restrictions to ease, outweighing concerns among many other firms of the potential further damaging impact of Brexit-related trading issues.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone PMI manufacturing rose to 57.7 a 36-mth high, services dropped slightly to 44.7

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose to 57.7 in February, up from 54.8, well above expectation of 54.4. That’s also the highest level in 36 months. PMI Services dropped to 44.7, down from 45.4, slightly above expectation of 44.5. PMI Composite rose to 48.1, up from 47.8.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                      “Ongoing COVID-19 lockdown measures dealt a further blow to the eurozone’s service sector in February, adding to the likelihood of GDP falling again in the first quarter. However, the impact was alleviated by a strengthening upturn in manufacturing, hinting at a far milder economic downturn than suffered in the first half of last year. Factory output grew at one of the strongest rates seen over the past three years, thanks to another impressive performance by German producers and signs of strengthening production trends across the rest of the region.

                                      “Vaccine developments have meanwhile helped business confidence to revive, with firms across the eurozone becoming increasingly upbeat about recovery prospects. Assuming vaccine roll-outs can boost service sector growth alongside a sustained strong manufacturing sector, the second half of the year should see a robust recovery take hold.

                                      “One concern is the further intensification of supply shortages, which have pushed raw material prices higher. Supply delays have risen to near-record levels, leading to near-decade high producer input cost inflation. At the moment, weak consumer demand – notably for services – is limiting overall price pressures, but it seems likely that inflation will pick up in coming months.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Germany PMI manufacturing surged to 3-yr high at 60.6, services dropped to 45.9

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Germany PMI Manufacturing surged to 60.6, up from 57.1, well above expectation of 56.5. That’s also the highest level in 36 months. PMI services, dropped to 45.9, down from 46.7, slightly below expectation of 46.5. PMI Composite rose to 51.3, up from 50.8, a 2-month high.

                                        Phil Smith, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “February’s flash PMI results point to ongoing resilience in the German economy midway through the opening quarter, despite the country remaining under strict lockdown measures. Ongoing weakness in services, where large parts of the sector remain either closed or disrupted by virus containment measures, continues to be counterbalanced by strong, export-driven growth across manufacturing.

                                        “It was encouraging to see manufacturing regain momentum in February after a slight setback in growth at the start of the year. Furthermore, the strong performance comes amid a backdrop of increasing supply-side pressures, with February’s survey showing record reports of delivery delays and sharply rising input prices. Manufacturers seem to be weathering the storm so far, but there is the potential for some near-term disruption should the situation worsen and firms find themselves short of raw materials and components.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        France PMI manufacturing surged to 3-yr high at 55, but services dropped to 43.6

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          France PMI Manufacturing jumped to 55.0 in February, up from 51.6, well above expectation of 51.0. That’s also the highest reading in 3 years. PMI Services, however, dropped to 43.6, down from 47,3, well below expectation of 47.0. PMI Composite dropped further to 45.2, down from 47.7, a 3-month low.

                                          Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: “The latest PMI data suggested that the French private sector is continuing to struggle amid the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. However, downturns in activity and new orders were confined to the service sector in February, where some businesses remain temporarily closed due to current activity restrictions. Meanwhile, there were signs that manufacturers are taking steps towards a recovery, with new orders increasing at the quickest rate for two-and-a-half years and output expanding solidly.

                                          “Another bright spot in the latest data was the increase in employment for both sub-sectors. The second successive monthly rise at services firms is particularly promising given the ongoing decline in activity and suggests that firms are looking past the current climate and focusing on future growth. This was further illustrated by the strongest expectations regarding future activity since July 2018.

                                          “The pandemic did, however, continue to cause issues on the supply-side, with input shortages driving another sharp rise in cost burdens and delivery delays. Moreover, firms were again unable to pass on higher prices to their clients. Instead, output charges were cut further, and again acted as a squeeze on profit margins.”

                                          Full release here.

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