Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a speech yesterday that the economy is “doing well and standing on its own”. He supported monetary to move towards a neutral stance. And that means “a gradual increase in nominal interest rates over the next handful of quarters.” However, later he clarified that there is still “some uncertainty” to whether US is “really at full employment”. If there is “not a risk of overheating then we have the possibility to be more patient.”

Bostic is taking a “wait and see” approach to the fourth hike in 2018 in December. That is, to several rate hikes in the coming quarters doesn’t mean rate hikes in every quarter. While it may sounds a bit confusing, his comments have been consistent. Bostic is one of those who are more cautiously on the outlook. In particular, just a few weeks ago, he vowed not to vote for anything that knowingly inverts yield curve.

On trade tensions, Bostic said “an uncertain outlook can cause firms to delay investments while they wait to see how the situation unfolds. Such a development could grow to have macroeconomic ramifications the longer the uncertainty remains.” But he also noted that a recent survey shows trade war fears have had “only a small negative effect on US business investment so far.”

There are some contrasting comments from Fed officials today.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that “with fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and financial conditions supportive of growth, the shorter-run neutral interest rate is likely to move up somewhat further, and it may well surpass the longer-run equilibrium rate for some period.” And to her, gradual interest rate hikes are likely to be appropriate.

On the other hand, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized that “you can’t just say, ‘unemployment is 3.9 percent, obviously we have to raise rates’; or, ‘growth is fast, obviously we have to raise rates.'” He noted that “I don’t think that feedback to inflation is very strong to be able to make that argument.”

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday, “It’s time to raise rates now when the economy can take it. Front-load it, get it done, and then we can judge how the economy is proceeding later, and if we have to do more, we’re going to do more.”

“The labor market is strong. The economy is doing so well,” he said. “This is the time to hit it if you think there’s going to be any kind of negative reaction, because the economy can take it.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Fed should hike by 50bps to 5.00-5.25%, and hold it at that level until well into 2024. “We must determine when inflation is irrevocably moving lower,” he wrote in an essay. “We’re not there yet.”

“That’s why I think we need to raise the federal funds rate to between 5-5.25% and leave it there well into 2024. This will allow tighter policy to filter through the economy and ultimately bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand into better balance and thus lower inflation.”

“If we are going to get inflation back in the range of our target, the breadth of inflation will have to narrow considerably,” Bostic wrote. “When inflation is no longer top of mind, our mission will largely be accomplished. We are clearly not there yet. But I—and the Committee—are committed to doing all we can to ensure that we get there as soon as possible.”