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Australia NAB business conditions rose to 14, employment turned positive

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    ActionForex
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    Australia NAB Business Conditions rose to 14 in December, up from 7. That’s the fourth consecutive month of improvement, and highest level since late 2018. Looking at some details, Employment improved notably from -4 to 9, first positive reading since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Trading conditions rose from 15 to 20, but profitability dropped from 13 to 11.

    Business Confidence dropped to 4 in December, down from 13, as confidence pulled back in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, partly reflecting the outbreak in Sydney through December.

    Full release here.

    ECB Villeroy: Monetary policy also about quality of transmission

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      ActionForex
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      ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said yesterday, “ensuring favorable financing conditions are the conditions for the full transmission of this accommodative monetary stance”.

      “Monetary policy is not only about quantities, it is also about the quality of its transmission. And it is not limited to one single indicator or one automatic rule like yield curve control, it incorporates judgment and discretion,” he added.

      Villeroy also reiterated that ECB remains committed to the inflation target of below, but close to 2%. “Our goal is and remains inflation.”

      Separately, Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, some downward risks from the fourth quarter could still continue in the first quarter.” Recovery in Eurozone is still uncertain and uneven.

      US consumer confidence rose to 89.3, COVID-19 still the major suppressor

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        ActionForex
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        US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose to 89.3 in December, up from 87.1, above expectation of 88.9. Present Situation Index dropped from 87.2 to 84.4. Expectations Index rose from 87.0 to 92.5.

        “Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions weakened further in January, with COVID-19 still the major suppressor,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

        “Consumers’ expectations for the economy and jobs, however, advanced further, suggesting that consumers foresee conditions improving in the not-too-distant future. In addition, the percent of consumers who said they intend to purchase a home in the next six months improved, suggesting that the pace of home sales should remain robust in early 2021.”

        Full release here.

        IMF upgrades 2021 global growth forecast to 5.5% on vaccine hopes

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          ActionForex
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          In the World Economic Outlook Update, IMF warned, “although recent vaccine approvals have raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic later this year, renewed waves and new variants of the virus pose concerns for the outlook.”

          Still, 2021 global growth forecasts was revised up by 0.3% to 5.5%, “reflecting expectations of a vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year and additional policy support in a few large economies.” Global GDP is expected grow another 4.2% 2022.

          Full report here.

          NZD/USD resumes rebound from 0.7096, targeting 0.7314 high

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            ActionForex
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            NZD/USD’s rebound from 0.7095 resumes today after some brief consolidations. The support from 4 hour 55 EMA is seen as a near term bullish sign. Current development argues that the corrective fall from 0.7314 has completed. And larger rally is possibly ready to resume.

            Further rise is now expected to retest 0.7314 high first. Break will extend the up trend from 0.5469 to 100% projection of 0.5920 to 0.6797 from 0.6589 at 0.7466. Though, break of 0.7166 minor support will extend the correction from 0.7314 with another fall, probably to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7055) before completion.

            PBoC Yi: Increasing macro leverage ratio and non-performing loans are two risks

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              ActionForex
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              China’s PBOC Governor Yi Gang said in the virtual meeting of the World Economic Forum, “monetary policy will continue to prop up the economy, but at the same time we will watch for the risks. We will keep a delicate balance between supporting economic recovery, at the same time preventing risk.”

              “One risk is the macro leverage ratio of China increased somewhat last year, the second risk is non-performing loans that are growing, and we also look at external risks, which is look at the capital flow situation,” he added.

              Yi also pledged to “ensure our policies are consistent and stable”, and the central bank “will not exit from supporting policy prematurely.”

              Germany manufacturers’ export expectations improved on Brexit and US clarity

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                ActionForex
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                Germany’s Ifo Export Expectations in manufacturing rose 1.9 pts to 6.0 in January, hitting the highest level since October. “Clarity on Brexit and the US presidency, a robust industrial economy, and the start of vaccination campaigns worldwide led to cautious optimism in the German export sector,” said Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute.

                “Manufacturers of computers and electrical equipment expect to see major increases in exports. Companies in mechanical engineering and the chemical industry are also confident about their future exports. Expectations among food and beverage manufacturers also saw a marked recovery. They currently assume their export business will hold steady. The international market is still difficult for Germany’s clothing industry. Furniture manufacturers also expect their international sales to decline.”

                Full release here.

                Bitcoin rejected by 4H 55 EMA, extending triangle pattern with last leg

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                  ActionForex
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                  Bitcoin rebounded to as high as 34899 but was rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA and reversed. Break of 31741 minor support suggests that such rebound is completed. Corrective pattern from 41964 should be still in progress. It’s now likely a five-wave defending triangle pattern, in the last leg.

                  Bitcoin should now have another take on 30k handle, and will likely overcome it for a while. Ideally, it should breach lower trend line (now at 28541) briefly and complete the triangle pattern there and rebound. We’ll see how it goes.

                  UK unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in Nov, claimant count rose only 7k in Dec

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                    ActionForex
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                    In the three months to November, UK unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, below expectation of 5.1%. That was 1.2% higher than a year ago, and 0.6% higher than the previous quarter. 5% was also the highest level since early 2016.

                    Though, totally hours worked showed continued signs of recovery, up 89m, or 10%, to 979.9m hours. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 3.6% 3moy, versus expectation of 3.0% 3moy. Average earnings including bonus rose 3.6% 3moy, also above expectation of 2.8% 3moy.

                    UK claimant count rose just 7k in December, must lower than expectation of 47.5k. Still, at 2.6m, the total is 113.2%, or 1.4m, above March 2020’s level.

                    Full release here.

                     

                    South Korea GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q4, supported by strong exports

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                      ActionForex
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                      South Korea’s GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 0.7% qoq. Momentum of the recovered was dampened, comparing to Q3’s 2.1% qoq, by second wave of coronavirus pandemic. Though, strong exports, which grew at 26-month high of 12.6% yoy in December, offset some weakness in private consumption. For the whole year, GDP contraction was limited to just -1%.

                      Analysts are also expecting a solid year for South Korea in 2021. Vaccination roll-outs to be started in February should reduce the need for restrictions and stimulate local demand. Return of global growth and 5G deployment would also support exports from Q2 onwards. Economists are expectation around 3% GDP growth this year.

                      BoJ minutes: Developments in FX and other markets continued to warrant attention

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                        ActionForex
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                        Minutes of BoJ’s December 17-18 meeting showed some discussions on the topic of exchange rates. Some members noted that “U.S. dollar continued to depreciate moderately against the yen as part of its depreciation trend against a wide range of currencies, and that developments in the foreign exchange and other financial markets continued to warrant attention.”

                        One of these members added “recent improvement in market sentiment had been partly driven by expectations for vaccines” and the member was closely monitoring stocks market developments. One member noted ” future developments in the U.S. credit market warranted attention, since market participants had been actively conducting risk-taking activities.”

                        On policy, “members agreed that the Bank would closely monitor the impact of COVID-19 and not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.” Most members shared the view that, “as for policy rates, it would expect short- and long-term interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels.”

                        Full minutes here.

                        US 10 year yield dived on stimulus concern, heading back to channel support

                          By
                          ActionForex
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                          US 10-year yield dropped sharply overnight as concerns surfaced over the passage of President Joe Biden’s USD 1.9T pandemic relief proposal in Congress. Senate majority Leader Chuck Schumer would try to push through some measures in early February. But a comprehensive deal may be four to six weeks away. But he admitted, “will it be easy in the Senate? No”.

                          Democrats only have slim 50-50 control in the Senate thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. Opposition to the bill was voiced by some moderate Republicans and some Democrats.

                          10-year yield closed down -0.051 to 1.040. The rejection by near term channel resistance is now clear. TNX will likely pull back to wards channel support, which is close to 55 day EMA at 0.9581. Nevertheless, there is no threat to the up trend yet as long as the channel holds. Another rise towards 1.266 resistance is still in favor at a later stage.

                          ECB Lane: Standard Poole analysis calls for a two-sided and flexible PEPP approach

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                            ActionForex
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                            ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a speech there is “considerable uncertainty about pandemic dynamics. Recent intensification in some countries represents a “significant downside risk” and requires “prolongation of various fiscal support measures”.

                            But, “the launch of vaccination campaigns is a milestone in the eventual resolution of the pandemic health crisis, even if there is only cloudy visibility of the calendar towards sufficient immunity to enable the restoration of normal economic activity,” he added.

                            Under these conditions, standard Poole analysis calls for a “two-sided and flexible approach” to the total scale of PEPP. “If favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full. Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.”

                            Full speech here.

                            ECB Lagarde and Panetta discussed climate-related monetary policy

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                              ActionForex
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                              ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank was creating a team of around 10 staff, reporting directly to her, to set the agenda on climate-related topics. “Climate change can create short-term volatility in output and inflation through extreme weather events, and if left unaddressed can have long-lasting effects on growth and inflation,” Lagarde noted.

                              Executive Board member Fabio Panetta also said, ECB has already taken steps on contributing to environmental policies in the implementation of monetary policy. For example, “sustainable finance instruments – the sustainability-linked bonds – among the collateral that can be used in refinancing operations” were included.

                              Additionally, “the ECB has to protect its balance sheet from the financial risks caused by climate change that are not correctly priced by the markets,” Panetta added. “By performing its own analysis of these risks on the basis of rigorous methodologies, the ECB can contribute to the accurate valuation of these climate-related risks and promote awareness among investors, thereby helping to combat climate change. These issues are currently being considered as part of our monetary policy strategy review.

                              German Ifo business climate dropped to 90.1, second wave brought recovery to a halt

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Germany Ifo business climate dropped to 90.1 in January, down from 92.2, below expectation of 92.0. Current assessment index dropped to 89.2, down from 91.3, missed expectation of 90.7. Expectations index dropped to 91.1, down from 93.0, below expectation of 93.2.

                                Looking at the sectors, manufacturing index dropped from 9.1. to 8.8, first decline after eight straight rises. Services dropped from -0.4 to -4.4. Trade nose-dived sharply from 0.3 to -17.2, steepest fall since April 2020. Construction dropped from -0.8 to -5.1.

                                Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute: “The second wave of coronavirus has brought the recovery of the German economy to a halt for now.”

                                Full release here.

                                BoJ Kuroda: Most important policy now is to avoid unemployment and corporate failures

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at a WEF virtual meeting “”the resurgence of COVID-19 and the state of emergency declaration by the government just a few weeks ago would tend to dampen economic recovery” of Japan. “In this kind of situation, the most important policy is to … avoid unemployment and corporate failures and so forth,” he added.

                                  The government has “already implemented huge amount of fiscal support”. At the same time, BoJ provided liquidity to the banking sector and tried to “stabilize the financial markets”. Both policies have been “fairly successful in stabilizing the markets, avoiding corporate failures, maintaining employment”.

                                  But, “we have to overcome, contain this pandemic”, through vaccination and creation of immunity. That is the “challenge still faced by Japan”.

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                                  Gold struggles in range after recovery capped by 55 D EMA

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
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                                    Gold’s rebound from 1810.07 lost momentum at 1874.88, after hitting 55 day EMA. But subsequent retreat is kept above 1832.40 minor support holds. The corrective rise could still extend higher. Above 1874.88 will target 61.8% retracement of 1959.16 to 1810.07 at 1902.20. But upside should be limited there. .

                                    Overall, we’re seeing fall from 1959.16 as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 2075.18. Hence, another decline is expected after current recovery from 1810.07 completes. Break of 1832.40 will likely send gold through 1810.07 to 1764.31 support and below.

                                    Bitcoin completed three wave correction, eye EMA resistance for confirmation

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Bitcoin’s correction from 41964 extended to as low as 28989 but quickly rebounded back above 30k handle. It’s now even trading above 33k. The development argues that such correction might have completed with a three wave structure, with bullish convergence condition in hourly MACD.

                                      Focus is now on 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 34334). Sustained break there will affirm this bullish view and bring stronger rise back to 40000/41964 resistance zone. However, break of 31741 minor support will extend the correction with another fall through 28989.0 before completion.

                                      AUD/NZD in correction downwards, but no change in bullish trend

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        AUD/NZD formed a short term top at 1.0840 on overbought condition and turn into corrective fall. While some more downside is likely in the cross, we’re not expecting a complete reversal in fortune. Downside of pull back should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0415 to 1.0840 at 1.0678, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0688). Above 1.0788 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.0840 resistance first.

                                        However, firm break of 1.0678 would bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.0577. Overall, the depth of the correction could eventually determine how far the rise from 1.0415 would extend to.

                                        Australia goods exports jumped 16% in Dec, imports dropped -9%

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          According to preliminary data, Australia’s export of goods rose 16% mom to AUD 34.9B. Imports of goods dropped -9% mom to AUD 26.0B. There was a goods trade surplus of AUD 9.0B.

                                          Exports to China jumped 21% to AUD 2312m, to Japan rose 24% to AUD 864m, to US rose 58% to AUSD 678m, to India rose 35% to AUD 339m, to South Korea dropped -14% to AUD 317m.

                                          Imports from China dropped -7% to AUD 641m, from US dropped -33% to AUD 1274m, from Germany dropped -10% to AUD 127m, from Japan rose 6% to 95m, from Thailand rose 8% to AUD 101m.

                                          “Imports have fallen following a November spike to be more in line with recent history”, said ABS Head of International Statistics, Katie Hutt, “while exports of metalliferous ores and cereals are the strongest in history, resulting in the fourth highest goods trade surplus on record”.

                                          Full release here.

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