RBNZ ketp OCR unchanged at 1.75%, can move up or down after considerable period

    RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% at widely expected.It reiterated to “ensure the OCR is at an expansionary level for a considerable period.” Bias is neutral as it’s “well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary.”

    NZD/USD stays pressured after the release, partly also due to Dollar strength. NZD/USD is preassure 0.6779 key support level and there is no sign of bottoming so far.

    Full statement below.

    Statement by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr:

    Tena koutou katoa, welcome all.

    The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain at 1.75 percent for now. However, we are well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary.

    Our outlook for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the May Monetary Policy Statement, remains intact. Employment is around its sustainable level and consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of our target, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy for some time to come.

    Global economic growth is expected to support demand for our products and services. Global inflationary pressure is also expected to be higher but remain modest. This outlook has been tempered slightly by trade tensions in some major economies. Ongoing volatility in some emerging market economies continues.

    Domestically, ongoing spending and investment, by both households and government, is expected to support growth. However, the recent weaker GDP outturn implies marginally more spare capacity in the economy than we anticipated. The Government’s projected spending impulse is also slightly lower and later than anticipated.

    CPI inflation is likely to increase in the near term due to higher fuel prices. Beyond that, inflation is expected to gradually rise to our 2 percent annual target, resulting from capacity pressures.

    The best contribution we can make to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation, is to ensure the OCR is at an expansionary level for a considerable period.

    Meitaki, thanks.

    SNB keeps sight deposit rate at -0.75%, pandemic to be back under control in foreseeable future

      SNB kept sight deposits rate unchanged at -0.75%. Also, “in light of the highly valued Swiss franc, the SNB remains willing to intervene more strongly in the foreign exchange market”.

      In the baseline scenario, SNB expects the pandemic to be “brought back under control in the foreseeable future”. Global recovery should therefore “regain momentum in the course of next year”. But production capacity will be “unfertilized for some time” and inflation will remain modest in most countries.

      For Swiss, SNB expects GDP to contract by around -3% this year. GDP will then grow 2.5% to 3.0% for 2021, but recovery remains “incomplete”. Conditional inflation forecast through the end of 2021 is revised slightly lower, “primarily due to the renewed deterioration in the economic situation as a result of the second wave of the pandemic”. Overall inflation would be at -0.7% in 2020, 0.0% in 2021, and 0.2% in 2022.

      Full statement here.

      Fed Rosengren sees yellow lights in inflation, Kashkari sees bond flashing yellow too

        Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren warned that tight labor market could push the economy towards unexpected inflation and other problems. He argued that Fed should continuing rate hikes “until monetary policy becomes mildly restrictive.”

        And he emphasized that “the further we get from full employment the further risk there is.” Also, he added “pushing the economy too hard risks inflationary concerns or financial-stability risks”. Either of these outcomes “might necessitate a more forceful monetary policy response.”

        While there are no “alarm going off” for now, he said “there are a bunch of yellow lights”. these include commercial housing estate boom that could push prices beyond what market demand could sustain.

        On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari saw “flashing yellow” signals in the bond market, which suggested there is no need for any more rate hikes for now. He said “the bond market is saying, ‘hey we’re not so sure that the U.S. economic growth is going to be very strong in the future years,’ so that’s a nervousness for me.”

        Kashkari added yield curve is “a measure of giving us feedback as to are we running accommodative monetary policy or contractionary monetary policy, and I don’t see any reason yet that we should be moving interest rates up and tapping the brakes.”

        SNB keeps policy rate at -0.75%, upgrades inflation forecasts

          SNB keeps policy rate and interest on sight deposits at -0.75% as widely expected. The central bank said “it remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.”

          New conditional inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were revised higher. This is “‘primarily due to the rise in oil prices and the weaker Swiss franc”. But, “looking beyond the two-year horizon, the inflation forecast is virtually unchanged compared with December”. The forecasts now stands at 0.2% for 2021, 0.4% for 2022 and 0.5% for 2023.

          SNB expects the GDP growth of 2.5-3.0% for 2021. Activity is likely to return to its pre-crisis level in the second half of the year. But production capacity will remain underutilized for some time yet.

          Full statement here.

          ISM manufacturing dropped to 49.1, weak orders, production, employment, and supply problems

            ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped -1.0 from 50.1 to 49.1, above expectation of 44.3. Looking at some details, new orders plunged -7.6 from 49.8 to 42.2. Production dropped -2.6 from 50.3 to 47.7. Employment dropped -3.1 from 46.9 to 34.8. Supplier deliveries was the main component that kept headline PMI down slightly, up 7.7 from 65.0 to 57.3.

            It should be noted that supplier deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed. That is, a reading of above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The high reading was primarily a production of coronavirus related supply problems.

            ISM also said: “Comments from the panel were negative regarding the near-term outlook, with sentiment clearly impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and energy market volatility… “The coronavirus pandemic and shocks in global energy markets have impacted all manufacturing sectors.”.

            Full release here.

            BoJ Kuroda: Free trade is important, protectionism won’t spread globally

              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said ahead of G20 finance head meeting:-

              • “There is a solid understanding among the global community that free trade is important”
              • “I don’t think protectionism will spread globally”

              Now, let’s see how many “like minded” people are there in the meeting.

              EU Katainen: US auto tariffs probe very difficult to understand

                European Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen respond to the Trump’s intention to impose new tariffs on automobile imports. Katainen criticized that would be “against the WTO” and “it’s very difficult to imagine it to create any sort of threat to national security. He reiterated that “it’s very difficult to understand”.

                But he also noted that “we have now just heard what has been said and there is a long journey to the practice … We don’t expect this to further complicate the issue. We just have to find a solution that is fair.”

                Trump: China attacking farmers “loyal to me”

                  Trump attacks China for attacking farmers, ranchers and industrial works “because of their loyalty to me”.  Civilians loyal to a leader? Sounds like it’s word out of the mouth of a dictator in an authoritarian country!

                  From Oxford dictionary – Patriot: A person who vigorously supports their country and is prepared to defend it against enemies or detractors.

                  Patriots are loyal to their country, not a person. A democratically elected president has to be loyal to the citizens. Not the reverse.

                   

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                  Kuroda: BoJ takes a strong stance on continuing with monetary easing

                    BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech that the economy is “still on its way to recovery from the pandemic and has been under downward pressure from the income side due to rising commodity prices”. In this situation, “monetary tightening is not at all a suitable measure”.

                    He added that the top priority is to “persistently continue with the current aggressive monetary easing centered on yield curve control”. And, unlike other central banks, BoJ has noted faced the “the trade-off between economic stability and price stability”. Hence, it’s “certainly possible for the Bank to continue stimulating aggregate demand from the financial side.”

                    He concluded that BoJ “will take a strong stance on continuing with monetary easing, in that it will provide a macroeconomic environment where wages are likely to increase so that the rise in inflation expectations and changes in the tolerance of price rises — which have started to be seen recently — will lead to sustained inflation.”

                    Full speech here.

                    Fitch affirms US rating at AAA with negative outlook

                      Fitch Ratings affirmed US Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “AAA” with a “negative” outlook. It said, the rating is “supported by structural strengths that include the size of the economy, high per capita income and a dynamic business environment.” It’s “debt tolerance” is considered “higher” than that of other AAA sovereigns.

                      The negative outlook reflects “ongoing risks to the public finances and debt trajectory, notwithstanding the improvement in Fitch’s fiscal and debt projections since its last review”. Key variables including “real interest rates and fiscal deficits may not follow the expected path, potentially creating downside risk.”

                      Full release here.

                      BoE Tenreyro: Impact from higher energy prices to fade quickly, growth moderation to continue

                        BoE MPC member Silvana Tenreyro said in a speech that since August MPC forecast, there was “large upside news for near-term inflation from energy prices” which should “fade quickly”. But there was also a “moderation in recent GDP growth”, which looks set to “continue as we enter winter months. Higher energy prices may “reduce households real incomes and depress sentiment”, with additional risks from the prevalence of Covid, and falls in income for any furloughed workers who move out of employment.

                        Overall, she judged that the balance of the news is “unlikely to have a large effect on the amount of tightening required over the next few years”. The August forecast was “conditioned on market expectations of a gently rising path for Bank Rate, gradually unwinding the relatively small amount of monetary policy stimulus added since the onset of Covid”. The precise policy path will partly depends on how risks evolved.

                        She added, “my votes on any future policy changes will depend on incoming data and my assessment of the economy at the relevant MPC meetings”.

                        Full speech here.

                        Canada employment grew 53.7k, unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%

                          Canada employment grew 53.7k in September, above expectation of 40.2k. For whole of Q3, employment rose 111k, or 0.6%, similar to 0.7% in Q2. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%, down from 5.7% and beat expectation of 5.7%.

                          Full release here.

                          Germany and China signed pacts to deepen financial sector cooperation

                            Germany and China pledged to deepening cooperation in the finance sector and fight trade protectionism during Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s two-day visit to Beijing. And three pacts are signed, including agreements with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and China’s Securities Regulatory Commission.

                            Ahead of today’s meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Scholz said “it is important that, contrary to recent trends that we can observe elsewhere, we are seeing progress in our cooperation”. And, “we have a lot of common interests in financial matters, and then we need to bring different perspectives together. I believe that is the very important task of this financial dialogue.”

                            Fed Williams: Monetary policy is where it should be

                              New York Fed President John Williams said in a Reuters interview that he’s comfortable with the current interest rate level. He described the current federal funds rate, at 2.25-2.50%, as being “around my view of what neutral interest rates are”. And “monetary policy is where it should be”.

                              He noted that a shift in economic outlook is needed for Fed to resume the rate hike cycle. Nevertheless, he added “I don’t think that it would take a big change, but it would be a different outlook either for growth or inflation”.

                              Regarding balance sheet reduction, Williams noted it could end when bank reserves hit “maybe $1 trillion of reserves or somewhat more than that”. That’s only around USD 600B below current levels. He added, the figure is “a guess today of the amount of reserves that will be held in the system in the future – but again we are learning and will get a finer touch on that.”

                              ECB’s Villeroy: Battle Against Inflation Not Over

                                ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that ECB’s mission to bring inflation back towards 2% by between end-2024 and end-2025 would only be considered successful when underlying inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is under control.

                                Villeroy emphasized that the ECB would not give up prematurely, saying, “Although we have completed most of our rate-hiking journey, we may possibly still have a little way to go.”

                                He added that since it takes an estimated one to two years for rate hikes to impact inflation, the 3.5 percentage points in increases implemented by ECB since July would have a “fairly powerful impact” in the future.

                                Italy worries temporarily eased. DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ gained but show mixed picture

                                  US stocks rebounded broadly overnight as Italy worries eased temporarily. The turning point was anti-establishment Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio’s willingness to find someone other than eurosceptic Paolo Savona as economy minister. Savona was vetoed by President Sergio Mattarella who emphasized that “the adhesion to the euro is a choice of fundamental importance”. For now, Savona is seen as a sticky point. Senior Five Star lawmaker Laura Castelli was quoted saying “it’s astounding that Paolo Savona, a person of great culture and political awareness, has not yet decided to take a step back.”

                                  The political turmoil is far from being resolved yet. But at lease for now, the risk of another election, which could be framed by the far-right League as referendum on Euro, appears to be lower. German 10 year bund yield closed at 0.376 yesterday. Italian 10 year bond year closed at 2.903. That is, the spread was still wider than 250.

                                  DOW closed up 306.33pts or 1.26% at 24667.78. The structure of of the rebound from 23344.52 still look like a corrective three wave move that’s completed at 25086.49.

                                  S&P 500 closed up 34.15pts or 1.27% at 2724.01. The chart looks better as the dip from 2742.24 was relatively shallower.

                                  NASDAQ closed up 65.86, or 0.89% at 7462.45. The chart is best looking among the three as it didn’t bother with Italy much. Rise from 6805.96 has resumed too.

                                  So overall, the picture in US stocks were mixed. But that is expected as the markets are generally in consolidation phase. It’s natural for the major indices to be out-of-sync sometimes during a consolidation.

                                   

                                  US PMIs: Strong Q2 but exports back in decline

                                    US PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.6 in June, down from 56.4, below expectation of 56.2. PMI services dropped to 56.5, down from 56.8, but beat expectation of 54.9. PMI composite dropped to 56.0, down from 56.6, hit a two-month low.

                                    Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                    “The flash PMI surveys add to evidence that the US economy is enjoying a strong second quarter. Despite growth cooling slightly in June, the latest numbers round off the best quarter for three years, and suggest economic growth has lifted markedly higher than the 2.3% rate of expansion seen in the first quarter to well over 3%.

                                    “The upturn also continues to create new jobs in encouragingly high numbers. The employment gauges from the June surveys are running at levels indicative of non-farm payrolls rising by 190,000, with hiring remaining solid in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

                                    “Price pressures remain elevated, however, widely blamed on a mix of rising fuel prices and tariff-related price hikes, as well as supplier’s gaining pricing power as demand outstrips supply for many inputs.

                                    “Risks are tilted to the downside for coming months. Business expectations about the year ahead have dropped to a five month low, led by the weakest degree of optimism for nearly one and a half years in manufacturing. Exports are back in decline, showing the worst performance for over two years, causing factory order book growth to slump sharply lower compared to earlier in the year.

                                    “For the first time this year, factory output is growing faster than order books, suggesting production may be adjusted down in coming months. Inflows of new business into the service sector have meanwhile cooled to the weakest since January. Finally, although employment is still rising strongly, even here there are signs of weakness, with the latest rise in payrolls being the lowest for a year.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 214k, continuing claims dropped to 1.419m

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 214k in the week ending March 12, better than expectation of 221k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -9k to 223k.

                                      Continuing claims dropped -71k to 1419k in the week ending March 5, lowest since February 21, 1970. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -42.5k to 1463k, lowest since March 21, 1970.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Bundesbank: Inflation should move into double digits in the next few months

                                        Bundesbank said in the monthly report that there are “increasing signs that the German economy is slipping into a recession”. It added, “the high inflation and the uncertainty regarding the energy supply and its costs affect not only the gas and electricity-intensive industry and its export business and investments, but also private consumption and the service providers dependent on it.”

                                        Gas supply situation is expected to “remain extremely tense in the coming month”. For Q4 and Q1, economists expect a “noticeable decline in economic output”, and outlook is “extremely uncertain”.

                                        Regarding inflation, Bundesbank said the fiscal relief package will only be reflected in consumer prices at the beginning of next year. “The bottom line is that the inflation rate should move into the double digits in the next few months,” it added.

                                        Full release here.

                                        WTI oil hits new 2022 low as down trend resumes

                                          WTI oil crude oil extends recent decline and hit the lowest level for the year. Today’s move is part of the selloff in reaction to OPEC+ decision to stick with their existing pace of production cut, rather then raising it. Overall risk sentiment is not helping while China’s easing of pandemic restrictions is largely ignore.

                                          With 74.10 support broke, WTI is resuming whole down trend from 131.82. Further decline is now expected as long as 78.21 minor support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.12 to 76.61. from 94.25 at 64.88. Break of 78.21 will delay the bearish case, but risk will stays on the downside with 83.82 resistance intact.