Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in a speech that the economy is giving “conflicting signals. The strength of the labor market might be saying “hold” or even “raise rates”. But low inflation and the bond market might be saying “lower rates.” He also pointed out that there are risks on “both on both sides”. Additional easing could “overstimulate inflation, distort labor markets or fuel an asset price bubble.”. Not easing could undermine Fed’s credibility” and leave policymakers “behind the curve”.

Barkin also talked about several headwinds. There is a “great deal of uncertainty” around trade and politics, which matters for business confidence. He’s “particularly concerned” about the “roller coaster” recently. “Between Brexit, the ongoing negotiations with China, tensions in the Middle East and the political headlines—to name just a few—it’s been tough for businesses to feel like they’re on solid ground.”

Barkin’s full speech here.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said price inflation appeared “less responsive to resource slack” in recent decades. A “flatter Phillips curve permits the Federal Reserve to support employment more aggressively during downturns”. But it also increases the cost of “reversing unwelcome increase in long-run inflation expectations.

He added that a “flatter Phillips curve makes it all the more important that inflation expectations remain anchored at levels consistent with our 2 percent inflation objective”. For now, based on the evidence reviewed, he judged that US inflation expectations “do reside in a range that I consider consistent with our price stability mandate”.

Clarida’s full speech here.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said Fed officials are watching whether “decelerating global growth”, “weak manufacturing” and “weak business fixed investment” in the US would spreads through the rest of the economy. He added that if it spreads enough so that in six months there were a weak job report or two, “all of a sudden consumer confidence gets a little shaky, then you could have the start of a more severe downturn”.

And that’s why Fed lowered interest rate twice to a “little accommodative” level to support spending and investment and guard against a slowdown. He’s still comfortable that US is “not going to have a recession”, as long as consumers stay strong. At this point, Kaplan is “agnostic” about whether further rate cuts will be needed.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that monetary policy is now “well-positioned” to wait-and-see how the economy respond to the two recent rate cuts. He also described the rate cuts as mid-cycle adjustments.

He maintained that the economy was “quite solid” even though there is a lot of uncertainty due to trade tensions. US is on a good growth path but not “outrageously” strong and it could continue “until something happens.

He also believed that solid economic fundamentals could go on indefinitely even though the shape of the yield curve was a concern.