Thu, Apr 18, 2024 @ 20:03 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 454

Live Comments

Most popular

ECB wage growth data: A glimpse of hope but no trigger for immediate rate cuts

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    ECB released data today indicating a slight decrease in negotiated wage growth to 4.46% in Q4, marking a downturn from the previous quarter’s record high of 4.69%. This development, though modest, is likely to be greeted positively by ECB policymakers, signaling a potential onset of wage growth deceleration anticipated throughout the year.

    Despite the reduction, the magnitude of the drop is not substantial enough to prompt ECB to consider an immediate rate cut in March. The data presents a cautious optimism rather than a clear-cut rationale for policy easing. If ECB’s more hawkish members advocate for further evidence of wage growth deceleration, preferring to wait for the next wage data release in May, the likelihood shifts towards a rate cut in June, rather than April, as the more plausible timeline for monetary policy adjustment.

    EUR/USD bounces further in European session and the break of 1.0804 resistance argues that a short term bottom was formed at 1.0694, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Further rebound is now in favor to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832). Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.1138 has completed and bring stronger rally back to this resistance.

     

    Into US session: Sterling weakest as May seeks short Brexit delay to June 30

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Entering into US session, Sterling is undoubtedly the weakest one as Brexit chaos continue. UK PM May confirmed that she is seeking Article 50 extension till June 30. And she intends to have the third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. At the same times, it’s reported that EU would only approve extensions till May 23. And most importantly, we’d repeat our doubt that even with an extension, and another MV, would the deal get through the Commons? If not, then what’s next? There is no answer.

      Staying in the currency markets, Kiwiis second strongest weakest. Canadian Dollar is the third weakest as WTI is back below 59 after failing to take out 60 key resistance zone. Swiss Franc, Euro and Aussie are the strongest ones.

      Looking ahead, FOMC rate decision, economic projections and press conference are the main focus of the day. Here are some previews.

      In Europe:

      • FTSE is up 0.20%.
      • DAX is down -1.43%.
      • CAC is down -0.19%.
      • German 10-year yield is down -0.008 at 0.091.

      Earlier in Asia:

      • Nikkei rose 0.20%.
      • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.49%.
      • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.01%.
      • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.41%.
      • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0092 to -0.036.

      Trump: Xi and I want the deal to happen; Stock markets ignore and decline with yields & dollar

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        The financial markets seem to be repricing the US-China trade truce today. DOW open lower and is currently trading down -160pts or -0.6%.

        At the same time treasury yield is in deep decline. 10-year yield breaks 61.8% retracement of 2.808 to 3.248 at 2.976. That’s a rather bearish development and would put 2.808 medium term key support in focus. At the same time, Dollar is among the weakest ones together with Canadian and Aussie.

        Trump sounded positive with his tweet as same “President Xi and I want this deal to happen, and it probably will”. But the stock markets aren’t paying much attention.

        Twitter

        By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
        Learn more

        Load tweet

        Twitter

        By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
        Learn more

        Load tweet

        Twitter

        By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
        Learn more

        Load tweet

        China PMI manufacturing edged lower to 51.0, PMI non-manufacturing rose to 55.2

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          China official PMI manufacturing dropped slightly to 51.0 in May, down from 51.1, below expectation of 51.1. Looking at some details, production rose 0.5 to 52.7. New orders dropped to 51.3, while raw material inventory dropped to 47.7. New export orders also dropped to 48.2.

          PMI non-manufacturing rose to 55.2, up from 54.9, above expectation of 52.7.

          UK PMI services finalized at 49.9 in Dec, fractional fall in activity

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            UK PMI Services was finalized at 49.9 in December, up from November’s 48.8. S&P Global said fractional fall in activity was recorded at the end of 2022. Inflation rates were down but still high. Employment was unchanged, ending long period of jobs growth. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.0, up from prior month’s 48.2.

            Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

            “Around 40% of the survey panel expect a rise in business activity over the next 12 months, while 16% forecast a decline. Survey respondents commented on squeezed disposable incomes, elevated recession risks and a housing market downturn as key factors likely to constrain demand in the year ahead.

            “Although service providers widely noted concerns about global economic headwinds and stubbornly high inflation, there were also many reports citing positivity about factors within their control, including forthcoming product launches, expansion into new markets and planned business investment.”

            Full release here.

            SSE and HSI jump as China made formal concessions to US on trade, but concerns remain

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              Chinese and Hong Kong stocks surge today on reports that China has sent written responses to the US regarding the concessions it’s willing to made. That could pave the way for some sort of agreement during Xi-Trump meeting at the G20 summit on November 30. The act is generally seen as constructive for the trade negotiations.

              However, concerns remain as most of China described in the documents were just old wine in a new bottle. They’re just recap of what Xi Jinping has announced recently, such case raising the equity caps on foreign investments in some industries. There is so far nothing substantial regarding opening of the markets and removing barriers on trade and investments. Mostly likely too, there wasn’t anything regarding the highly criticized dominance of State-Owned Enterprises in the country.

              Further more, at this point, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is the one handling the discussion with China. Even if White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow would be involved, they remain far from the stage of making a trade deal. The work of trade agreements fall into the area of trade representative Robert Lighthizer. And, not until Lighthizer is involved, there would only be ceasefire, but no constructive progress.

              Nevertheless, investors in Asia are enjoying the ride no matter what. The China shanghai SSE closed up 1.36% at 2668.17. Hong Kong HSI closed up 1.64% or 421.17 pts at 26075.60.

              Eurozone CPI slowed to 0.9%, missed expectation of 1.0%

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Eurozone CPI slowed to 0.9% yoy in September, down form 1.0% yoy and missed expectation of 1.0% yoy. It’s also further away from ECB’s symmetric 2% target. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation,food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in September (1.6%, compared with 2.1% in August), followed by services (1.5%, compared with 1.3% in August), non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, stable compared with August) and energy (-1.8%, compared with -0.6% in August).

                Full release here.

                ECB accounts: Forward guidance conditions for rate hike crucial for June meeting discussions

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  In the accounts of April 13-14, ECB said “members widely expressed concern over the high inflation numbers”.

                  Against this background, “some members viewed it as important to act without undue delay in order to demonstrate the Governing Council’s determination to achieve price stability in the medium term.”

                  But other members argued that “adjusting the monetary policy stance too aggressively could prove counterproductive, as it would lower growth while inflation remained elevated because monetary policy was unable to address the immediate causes of high inflation”

                  All in all, “members widely shared the view that the gradual normalisation of the monetary policy stance… should be continued”.

                  Overall, it was judged that “forward guidance conditions for an upward adjustment of the key ECB interest rates would become crucial for the policy discussion at the Governing Council’s June meeting”

                  Full accounts here.

                  Atlanta Fed Bostic: The economy could come back a bit stronger than expected

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said, “all of the economic fallout has been a function of how we’ve responded to the public health crisis… Making a forecast about this year is really at its heart a forecast of how well the vaccine is going to penetrate into the population so we’re at a place where we don’t have to be so cautious about how we do our economic activity.”

                    Though, he added, “there is some possibility that the economy could come back a bit stronger than some are expecting… If that happens, I’m prepared to support pulling back and recalibrating a bit of our accommodation and then considering moving the policy rate.”

                    “But I don’t see that happening in 2021. A whole lot would have to happen to get us there,” he said. “Then we’ll see into 2022. Maybe the second half of 2022 or even 2023 where that might be more in play.”

                    Australia Jan trade balance: Massive AUD 1.06b surplus

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Australia recorded massive trade surplus of AUD 1.06b in January, a turnaround from December’s AUD -1.15b trade deficit.

                      Exports jumped 4% mom to AUD 33.9b, with 4% rise in non-rural goods, 54% rise in non-monetary gold. Much more than offsetting -8% fall in rural goods.

                      Imports, on the other hand, dropped -2% to AUD 32.9b. Consumption goods dropped -7%, non-monetary gold dropped -19%, capital goods dropped 1%.

                      AUD/JPY is tentatively drawing strong support from key medium term cluster at 81.48, 50% retracement of of 72.39 (2016) low to 90.29 (2017 high) at 81.34. But the bigger hurdle is on 84.34 support turned resistance for confirming short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside.

                      Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 47.1, economy to contract in Q4, risks on downside

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped from 48.4 to 46.6 in October, a 29-month low. PMI Services dropped from 48.8 to 48.2, a 20-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 48.1 to 47.1, a 23-month low.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.

                        “While October’s headline flash PMI is consistent with GDP falling at a modest rate of around 0.2%, demand is falling sharply and companies are increasingly growing worried over high inventories and weaker than expected sales, especially as winter approaches. The risks are therefore tilted towards the downturn accelerating towards the year-end.”

                        Full release here.

                        US ADP employment grew 106k Jan, disrupted by weather

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          US ADP private employment grew 106k in January, below expectation of 168k. By sector, goods-producing jobs dropped -3k. Service-providing jobs rose 109k. BY establishment size, small companies cut -75k jobs, but medium companies added 64k and large added 128k. Pay growth for job stayers was held at 7.3% yoy for the second month, with most industries little changed.

                          Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP said: “In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week. Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year.”

                          Full release here.

                          DOW broke 30k as investors welcome Yellen as US treasury secretary

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            US stocks broke out of range overnight to extend recent record run, with DOW closing at all time high at 30046.24, up 1.54%. Investors cheered the news that former Fed Chair Janet Yellen was picked by Joe Biden as the next Treasury Secretary. Yellen’s position on loose fiscal policy was clear, as she support continuation of extraordinary fiscal support, beyond necessary. Also, as Fed’s interest will stay low for many years to come, the government can afford to have more debt.

                            With the current rally resumption, DOW is now close to 38.2% projection of 18213.65 to 29119.35 at 26143.77 at 30340.30. Sustained break there will be seen as a vote of confidence on the sustainability of the up trend, and pave the way to 61.8% projection at 32932.93 next. However, rejection by this projection level, would turn focus back to 55 day EMA (now at 28333.92) instead.

                            BoE Carney: If weakness persists, risk management favors prompt response in monetary policy

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Outgoing BoE Governor Mark Carney said today that over the past year, UK growth has “slowed below potential” because of “weaker external backdrop and a persistent drag from entrenched Brexit uncertainties”. However, growth is expected to pick up ahead as “supported by the reduction of Brexit-related uncertainties, an easing of fiscal policy and a modest recovery in global growth.”

                              However, the rebound is “not, of course, assured”. there was a debate at the MPC “over the relative merits of near term stimulus to reinforce the expected recovery in UK growth and inflation”. “If evidence builds that the weakness in activity could persist, risk management considerations would favour a relatively prompt response.”

                              Carney’s full speech here.

                              Germany Ifo rose to 93 in May, no observable signs of recession

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Germany Ifo Business Climate rose from 91.9 to 93.0 in May, above expectation of 91.4. Current Assessment index rose from 97.3 to 99.5, above expectation of 97.2. Expectations Index ticked up from 86.8 to 86.9, above expectation of 85.8.

                                By sector, manufacturing rose from -0.7 to 2.8. Service rose from 5.5 to 8.1. Trade rose from -13.2 to -10.8. Construction rose from -20.0 to -13.4.

                                Ifo said: “The German economy has proven itself resilient in the face of inflation concerns, material bottlenecks, and the war in Ukraine. There are currently no observable signs of a recession.”

                                Full release here.

                                Japan’s PMI composite drops to 50.3, from recovery to stagnation

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Japan’s PMI Manufacturing dipped further to 47.2 from 48.0, marking the ninth consecutive month of sector contraction and hitting the lowest point since August 2020. PMI Services also declined, albeit more moderate, falling from 53.1 to 52.5. Consequently, Composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and service sectors, decreased from 51.5 to a near-stagnation point of 50.3.

                                  Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the recent data, noting that the slight improvement observed at the beginning of the year has “all but evaporate[d]” in February. He described the month’s growth as “only fractional,” attributing it to “softer upturn in services activity” that was insufficient to counterbalance the “steepest contraction in manufacturing output for a year.”

                                  Full Japan PMI release here.

                                  New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to 1.8, economy struggling to keep up with demand

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to 1.8 in May, up from April’s -2.0, but well below preliminary reading of 7.0. Own activity outlook rose to 27.1, up from April’s 22.2, but below preliminary reading of 32.3.

                                    Looking at some more details, export intentions rose from 9.1 to 12.2. Investment intentions rose from 17.1 to 18.9. Cost expectations rose from 76.1 to 81.3. Employment intentions rose from 16.4 to 20.5. Pricing intentions rose from 55.8 to 57.4.

                                    ANZ said: “The New Zealand economy is struggling to keep up with demand, and cost and inflation pressures continue to build. Firms are having trouble sourcing inputs to production. We wouldn’t read too much into the drop in activity indicators in the second half of the month just yet, as it may have been influenced by Budget uncertainty. We won’t have to wait long to get a fresh read, with the preliminary June data due to be released on 9 June.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US PPI slowed to 1.7% yoy, core PPI unchanged 2.3% yoy

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      US PPI rose 0.1%, 1.7% yoy in June, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.6% yoy. PPI core rose 0.3% mom, 2.3% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.1% yoy.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Asian update: JGB yield turned positive, Yen regains some grounds

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        After yesterday’s rally attempt, Euro is trading as the weakest one in Asian session today, together with Swiss Franc. Both are yet to find sustainable buying.

                                        On the other hand, after a breather, Canadian Dollar is extending last week’s rally and is trading as the strongest one for today at this point. Dollar is helped by rebound in treasury yields. Yield curve also flattened in the “inverted” range. Yen also regains some grounds today.

                                        Asian markets are mildly higher, expect in China. At this point:

                                        • Nikkei is up 0.80%
                                        • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.25%
                                        • China Shanghai SSE is down -0.34%
                                        • Singapore Strait Times is up 0.30%

                                        Japan 10 year JGB yield turns positive today, up 0.021 at 0.007. It reached as low as -0.045 just last week.

                                        Overnight:

                                        • DOW rose 0.42% to 23531.35
                                        • S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 2549.69
                                        • NASDAQ rose 1.26% to 6823.47
                                        • 10 year yield rose 0.23 to 2.682

                                        DOW is still limited by 23713.93 fibonacci level. S&P 500 is held by equivalent level at 2537.61. Also NASDAQ is kept relatively far below equivalent level at 6932.44.

                                        Yield curve is still inverted from 1-year (2.600), 2-year (2.541), 3-year (2.525) to 5 year (2.539). But they are now back above Federal funds rate target of 2.25-2.50%.

                                        UK GDP fell -0.3% mom in Apr, all sectors contracted

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          UK GDP contracted -0.3% mom in April, worse than expectation of 0.2% mom growth. Services fell -0.3% mom. Production fell -0.6% mom. Construction also fell by -0.4% mom. This is the first time that all main sectors have contributed negatively to a monthly GDP estimate since January 2021.

                                          Also released, manufacturing production came in at -1.0% mom, 0.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.8% yoy. Industrial production was at -0.6% mom, 0.7% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 0.5% yoy. Goods trade deficit widened to GBP -20.9B.

                                          Full GDP release here.

                                          1...453454455...659Page 454 of 659

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.