BoE Bailey: Minutes don’t imply the possibility of negative interest rate

    In the MPC meeting minutes released last week, BoE indicated that it’s looking at how it would implement negative interest rates effectively when necessary. But Governor Andrew Bailey said in an online talk today, “it doesn’t imply anything about the possibility of us using negative instruments.”

    “We have looked hard at the question of what scope is to cut interest rates further and particularly negative interest rates,” he added. He also noted the the experience of negative rates elsewhere was “mixed” only. The effective depends on the structure of the banking system and the timing of the move.

    Also, Bailey acknowledged the resurgence of coronavirus infections in UK was “very unfortunate” and “does reinforce the downside risks”.

    RBA Debelle outlines four monetary policy options ahead

      RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle outlined four possible options for monetary policy over the period ahead in a speech. The first option is for buying bonds further out along the curve. RBA has focused on three-year yield as target because, unlike the US, Australian financial instruments price predominantly off the short end of the curve. Nonetheless, ‘additional bond purchases would have some effect in lowering longer-term interest rates.”

      The second option is foreign exchange intervention but it’s not clear if this would be effective as the Australian dollar “broadly aligned with its fundamentals.” Recent movements in AUD exchange rate partly reflects “the depreciation of the US Dollar”, the “high price of iron ore”, and “relatively better growth outcomes”. A lower exchange rate would “definitely be beneficial” for the economy and “we are continuing to watch developments” in the forex markets.

      The third option is to lower current structure of rates without going negative. The fourth option is negative rates but the “empirical evidence on negative rates is mixed”.

      Full speech here.

      Fed Bullard: Not much of an imperative for a new fiscal package

        St Louis Fed President James Bullard said there’s not much of an “imperative” about a new fiscal package now.”It seems like, at least in some broad macroeconomic type of calculation, we have enough resources to cover this,” he said in a Bloomberg interview.

        “We might be able to sustain a recovery through this,” he said. “I’m hopeful we still have enough in the pipeline to push us through, get the growth going in the second half of the year. That certainly seems to be what’s happening in the third quarter. I think that will continue in the fourth quarter and the first part of next year.”

        Fed Kaplan worries about imbalances and instabilities due to interest rate pledge

          Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a telephone interview that if Fed makes the pledge to keep rates near-zero into 2023, “you need to fulfill it, unless there’s an extraordinary reason why you can’t…. My worry was that this would encourage in the shorter run more risk- taking and maybe create imbalances and instabilities.”

          As the economy recovers, the so call-neutral rate will rise. In that case, he said, “if you keep your setting of the fed funds rate exactly where it is, you are actually increasing the level of accommodation.” If unemployment rate approaches 3.5% while inflation is a little below 2%, ” do you actually want to be increasing the level of accommodation? I don’t know if you do or don’t, and that’s the point,” he added.

          Fed Powell: Economic activity has picked up from its depressed Q2 level

            In the remarks released ahead of Tuesday’s testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “economic activity has picked up from its depressed second-quarter level:. Economic indicators showed “marked improvements” including household spending, housing, business fixed investment and labor. However, both employment and overall economic activity “remain well below their pre-pandemic levels”. The path ahead continues to be “highly uncertain”.

            “A full recovery is likely to come only when people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities,” he added. “The path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control, and on policy actions taken at all levels of government. Fed remains “committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy for as long as is needed.”

            Full remarks here.

            DOW breaks 55 day EMA, heading back to 25000

              DOW opens sharply lower and it’s trading down nearly -900 pts at the time of writing. The strong break of 55 day EMA (now at 27340), and bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, suggests that 29199.35 is at least a short term top. Currently, we’re viewing it as a correction to the rise from 18213.65 first.

              Even that case, deeper fall would be seen to 24971.03 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 18213.65 to 29199.35 at 25002.81), which is also close to 25000 psychological level. Reaction from there would tell use whether this assumption of correction is correct, or DOW is indeed reversing the whole move.

              Gold breaks out of triangle, heading to 1862 support and below

                Gold breaks out of triangle pattern today and hits as low as 1890.17 so far. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 2075.18 is starting another falling leg for 1862.55 support first. Break there will target 61.8% retracement of 1670.66 to 2075.18 at 1825.16. At this point, we’d expect strong support around there to contain downside to complete the correction.

                However, it should be noted that the strong break of 55 day EMA could be a sign of larger correction. This is not our preferred scenario yet. But firm break of 1862.55 would argue that Gold is indeed correcting the whole rise from 1160.17. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1725.64 in the medium term, which would then be close to 55 week EMA (now at 1696.48).

                ECB Lagarde: Uncertainty requires careful assessment of information including exchange rate

                  ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech the central bank’s pandemic response measures has stabilized the markets, protected the supply of credit and support the recovery. That should in turn support the return of inflation towards target.

                  But at the same time, “the uncertainty of the current environment requires a very careful assessment of the incoming information, including developments in the exchange rate, with regard to its implications for the medium-term inflation outlook.. ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate.

                  Lagarde’s full speech here.

                  Bundesbank: German economy gradually recovering from pandemic slump

                    According to the Bundesbank’s monthly report, German economy is “gradually recovery from the severe slump as a result of the coronavirus pandemic”. After the massive decline in GDP in springs experts expect a “strong countermovement” in Q3. But both industry and service sector would fall well below the pre-crisis level in the summer.

                    Industrial productions continued its recovery at a slower pace in July Bundesbank assumes that “recovery will continue in the further course of the year, albeit at a slower pace”. Also, expectations regarding export are “still cautious”.

                    It also noted that unemployment stood steady at 6.4% for the three month in a row. “The recovery tendencies in employment and unemployment could continue”

                    Full release here.

                    Sterling down as UK at a critical juncture on returning to lockdown

                      Sterling tumbles broadly today on concern that UK is returning to coronavirus lockdown. Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical officer, is expected to warn at a briefing, “the trend in the UK is heading in the wrong direction and we are at a critical point in the pandemic… We are looking at the data to see how to manage the spread of the virus ahead of a very challenging winter period”

                      Separately, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps also said UK was at a critical juncture, but any lockdown should be balanced. “We’re certainly at a very critical moment this morning,” Shapps said. “It is clear that we are just a few weeks behind what we’re seeing elsewhere in Europe.” “It is very important that we do everything we can to sort of bear down on this,” he added. “We’ll hear from others including the prime minister on the proposed next steps.”

                      PBoC kept LPR unchanged for the fifth straight month

                        China’s PBoC kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive month today. The one-year Loan Prime Rate was held at 3.85%. Five-year LPR was kept at 4.65%. That was basically in line with market expectations.

                        Recent economic data from China suggested that the economy is on track for recovery. PBoC is expected to continue to stand pat, keeping the policy rate unchanged in the coming months. The main question now is when PBoC would start tightening up policy again. Some speculates that the LPR increase might come early next year.

                        USD/CNH is now reversing the whole up trend from 2018 low at 6.2354 to 7.193. As long as 6.8600 near term resistance holds, USD/CNH would continue its decline to 6.6699 support, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 6.6021.

                        UK manufacturers see no evidence of V sharp recovery

                          According to the Make UK/BDO Manufacturing Outlook Q3 survey, balance on investment intentions fell to -32% from -26% in the last quarter. Output and orders improved but were still way below historic averages. There were significant cuts to investment while employment prospects weakened. Forward looking indicators suggest conditions will improve albeit slowly. Overall, there was “no evidence of V shape recover”.

                          Also, Make UK is now forecasting manufacturing output to fall by -10.9% this year. 2021 recovery was downgraded by 6.2% to 5.1%. GDP is forecast to fall by -8.5% this year and recover by 10.1% in 2021.

                          Full release here.

                          Fed Kashkari wants stronger commitment to not raising rates

                            Minneapolis  Fed President Neel Kashkari explained in an article the reasons for his dissent to the latest FOMC statement. He said, “I would have preferred the Committee make a stronger commitment to not raising rates until we were certain to have achieved our dual mandate objectives.”

                            His own proposed language was: “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until core inflation has reached 2 percent on a sustained basis.” “By eliminating both the direct reference to our assessment of maximum employment and any forecast of inflation climbing, this proposed language guards against the risk of underestimating slack in the labor market. ” he added.

                            Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he’s comfortable with inflation above 2% but wold look at more at the “trajectory than level”. If inflation went up to 2.3% but appeared stable, “that would be fine”. On the other hand,  “if we were at 2.2 and the next quarter at 2.4 and then at 2.6 that trajectory would give me concern”.

                            Canada retail sales rose 0.6% in Jul, in V-shaped recovery

                              Canada retail sales rose 0.6% mom to CAD 52.9B in July, below expectation of 0.8% mom. Growth was led by higher sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers and gasoline stations. Core retail sales dropped -1.2% mom. StatCan said “overall, the recovery in total retail sales has been V-shaped, with sales in June and July, respectively, rebounding from the record low observed in April.”

                              Also from Canada, wholesale sales rose 4.3% mom in July, above expectation of 3.4% mom.

                              UK retail sales rose 0.8% in Aug, 4% above pre-pandemic level

                                UK retail sales rose 0.8% mom in August, above expectations of 0.7% mom. Over the year, sales rose 2.8% yoy, below expectation of 3.0% yoy. That’s the fourth consecutive month of growth, resulting in an increase of 4.0% comparing with February’s pre-pandemic level.

                                Full release here.

                                WTI extends rebound as OPEC+ urged full conformity on production cuts

                                  Oil prices surged overnight after OPEC+ urged members to conform with production cuts in an online meeting yesterday. “The JMMC reiterated the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and compensating overproduced volumes as soon as possible,” OPEC officials said.

                                  WTI extends the rebound from 35.98 to as high as 40.73 so far. Further rise is expected towards 43.50 resistance. At this point, we’re not expecting a firm break there. 43.75 is seen as a medium term top with subsequent price actions seen as developing into a sideway consolidation pattern. Break of 39.37 will start a third leg, a down leg, in the pattern.

                                  CBI: 46% UK firms would cut jobs or not hire in 12 months

                                    UK CBI found in a survey that 51% of firms are expecting to maintain or increase their permanent recruitment in the coming 12 months. At the same time, 46% are planning to either reduce permanent recruitment of not recruit at all. The balance of +5% was sharply lower than +56% in the survey last ear.

                                    Matthew Fell, CBI Chief UK Policy Director, said: “The UK labour market has been under heavy stress since the outset of the Covid-19 crisis and, although the economy has started to re-open, pressure on firms remains acute… We are seeing a two-speed recovery. While some firms are already looking at creating new jobs, most others are in survival mode.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Japan CPI core dropped to -0.4%, lowest in nearly four years

                                      Japan CPI core (all items less fresh food) dropped to -0.4% yoy in August, down from 0.0% yoy, matched expectations. It’s the lowest readings in nearly four years, matching the low seen in November 2016. All item CPI slowed to 0.2% yoy, down form 0.3% yoy. CPI core-core (all items less fresh food and energy) turned negative to -0.1% yoy, down form 0.4% yoy. Downward pressure is generally expected on prices, which might send core CPI to as low as -1.0% later this year.

                                      Separately, according to a telephone poll by Kydo news 66.4% of the public support new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s cabinet. A survey by Nikkei newspaper and TV Tokyo showed 74% support. Suga is generally expected to follow most a large part of Abenomics as his economic policies.

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped to 860k, continuing claims down to 12.6m

                                        US initial jobless claims dropped -33k to 860k in the week ending September 12, above expectation of 825k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -61k to 912k.

                                        Continuing claims dropped -916k to 12628k in the week ending September 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -533k to 13489k.

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoE kept policy unchanged, MPC briefed on plans to explore negative rates

                                          BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1% as widely expected. The target of asset purchases was also held at GBP 745B. Both decisions were made by unanimous votes. The central bank pledged to continue to “monitor the situation closely and stands ready to adjust monetary policy accordingly to meet its remit”. It “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

                                          The central bank also noted that “recent domestic economic data have been a little stronger than the Committee expected” at the time of the August Monetary Policy Report. However, “it is unclear how informative they are about how the economy will perform further out.” Recent increases in coronavirus cases is some parts of the world “have the potential to weigh further on economic activity”. Meanwhile, “there remains a risk of more persistent period of elevated unemployment”.

                                          In the minutes, it’s noted that the Committee “had discussed its policy toolkit, and the effectiveness of negative policy rates”. The MPC had been briefed on the plans to explore how a negative Bank Rate could be implemented effectively, should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it at some point during this period of low equilibrium rates.”

                                          Full statement here.

                                          Minutes here.