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Japan PMI composite unchanged at 44.9, prospect of a solid recovery remains highly uncertain

    By
    ActionForex
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    Japan PMI Manufacturing rose to 46.6 in August, up from 45.2, above expectation of 45.0. PMI Services edged down to 45.0, down from 45.4. PMI Composite was unchanged at 44.9.

    Bernard Aw, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The prospect of a solid recovery remains highly uncertain as Japanese firms were pessimistic about the business outlook on balance during August. Rising unemployment may also hit domestic household income and spending in the months ahead.”

    Full release here.

    Australia retails grew in July, except in Victoria

      By
      ActionForex
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      July’s preliminary reading showed retail sales grew 3.3% mom in Australia. Sales rose in all states and territories except Victoria, coinciding with the resurgence of coronavirus cases and reintroduction of stage 3 restrictions.

      “The rise across the rest of the country was driven by continued strength in household goods retailing, and the recovery in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys.

      Full release here.

      Australia CBA PMI composite tumbled to 48.8, back in contraction

        By
        ActionForex
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        Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 53.9 in August, down from 54.0. However, PMI Services sharply sharply by more than -10 pts to 48.1, down from 58.2, back in contraction. PMI Composite also tumbled to 48.8, down from 57.8, back in contraction too.

        CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird said: “The decline in business activity over August is hardly surprising given the lockdown measures in Victoria. With the August composite flash PMI only modestly in contractionary territory it is highly likely that outside of Victoria private output continued to expand over the month”.

        “The fall in employment is the inevitable consequence of shutting down large parts of the Victorian economy. Encouragingly, firms collectively retain an optimistic view on the outlook despite the setback in Victoria. Ongoing fiscal support for households and businesses remains critical to ensuring that optimism is not misplaced”.

        Full release here.

        UK Gfk consumer confidence unchanged at -27

          By
          ActionForex
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          UK Gfk Consumer Confidence was unchanged at -27 in August, worse than expectation of -25. General economic situation over the last 12 months dropped -1 pts to -62. General economic situation over the next 12 months also dropped -1 pts to -42.

          Joe Staton, GfK’s Client Strategy Director, says: “Employment is now the big issue because the pandemic has ended years of job security. Yes, discounted dinners have proved a winner with hungry consumers across the country this month, but it’s difficult to see significantly increased appetite for other types of spending for now.”

          Full release here.

          US initial claims rose back to 1.1m, continuing claims down to 14.8m

            By
            ActionForex
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            US initial jobless claims rose 135k to 1106k in the week ending August 15, back above 1m level. It’s also above expectation of 990k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -79k to 1176k.

            Continuing claims dropped -636k to 14844k in the week ending August 8. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -327k to 15841k.

            Full release here.

            ECB accounts: Recent market developments might be based on overly optimistic expectations

              By
              ActionForex
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              In the accounts of July 15-16 monetary policy meeting, ECB warned that “recent positive market developments were not fully backed by economic data”. They might be based on “overly optimistic expectations” about the Next Generation EU recovery package, and progress on vaccine development.

              “A highly accommodative monetary policy stance continued to be appropriate on account of the subdued medium-term outlook for price stability, characterised by inflation expectations standing near historical lows and significant economic slack. Careful monitoring was warranted while uncertainty about economic outlook remained elevated. Current monetary stance was seen as “adequate” and a “recalibration” was “not deemed necessary”

              Looking ahead, additional information, including more hard data releases, new staff projections and news on fiscal measures, would become available by September. That would provide “more clarity regarding the medium-term inflation outlook”. “In any case, at its September meeting the Governing Council would be in a better position to reassess the monetary policy stance and its policy tools.”

              Full meeting accounts here.

              China said there will be trade talks with US in coming days

                By
                ActionForex
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                Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said at regular press briefing that China and the US have agreed to hold trade talks “in the coming days” for evaluation on the implementation of the phase 1 trade deal. However, there was no further elaboration on the details of the meeting, nor any exact data.

                The comments were in contrast to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’, who said “there are no rescheduled talks … at this point”. Trade Representative ” Lighthizer continues to have discussions with his Chinese counterparts involving purchases and fulfilling their agreements.”

                The trade deal review was originally scheduled for August 15. But US President Donald Trump indicated on Tuesday, “I postponed talks with China. You know why? I don’t want to deal with them now… What China did to the world was not even thinkable. They could have stopped (the virus).”

                ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB to lower 7-day dollar liquidity operation to once a week

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  In a joint statement, ECB, BoE, BoJ and SNB said they will lower the frequency of 7-day US dollar liquidity providing operations starting September 1. 7-day USD operations will be carried out once per week, instead of three times per week. 84-day operations will continue to be offered weekly.

                  The central banks said the move was in view of “continuing improvements in US dollar funding conditions and the low demand at recent 7-day maturity US Dollar liquidity-providing operations.” Still, the central banks “stand ready to re-adjust the provision of US dollar liquidity as warranted by market conditions”.

                  Full statement here.

                  RBNZ Hawkesby: Balance inevitably becomes a more active tool

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in a speech, “in an environment of where the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is near its lower limits, the size and composition of our balance will inevitably become a more active tool for our monetary policy decisions.”

                    He also emphasized the goal of the Large Scale Asset purchase program was “not to maximise our profits or dividend from the activities on our balance sheet”. Instead, “we use our balance sheet to achieve our ultimate policy objectives of monetary and financial stability.”

                    “We recently expanded our LSAP programme up to $100 billion and are preparing the groundwork to use additional tools if needed such as a negative OCR or Funding for Lending Programme (FLP) in order to achieve our remit and ensure the long term prosperity of New Zealanders,” Hawkesby added.

                    Full speech here.

                    Gold extends consolidation with another down leg towards 1862

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Gold tumbles sharply overnight in tandem with Dollar’s rebound. The development suggests that rebound from 1862.55 has completed at 2015.66. Consolidation pattern from 2075.18 should have started the third leg and deeper fall would be seen. Break of 1862.55 cannot be ruled out for the moment. But even in that case, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 1670.66 to 2075.18 at 1825.18 to contain downside. Meanwhile, sustained trading back above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1971.82) would dampen this view and probably extend the rebound from 1862.55 instead.

                      Dollar index kept well below resistance despite post FOMC minutes rebound

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Dollar index staged a notable rebound overnight to close at 92.88, comparing to this week’s low at 92.12. The fact that it’s quickly back inside prior range above 92.54 support is a sign of stabilization. Daily MACD also stays above signal like after this week’s spike low.

                        Yet, break of 93.99 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, current fall from 102.99 is still in favor to extend lower. 161.8% projection of 100.55 to 95.71 from 97.80 at 89.96, which is close to 90 psychological support, could be the next target.

                        S&P 500 struggles to extend record run after Fed minutes, still bullish

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          S&P 500 hit new record of 3399.54 but retreated mildly after FOMC minutes, closing down -0.44% at 3374.85. Upside momentum appears to be diminishing as the index presses prior record of 3393.52. Daily MACD is struggling around signal line, in accordance with indecisive price actions.

                          For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 3279.99 resistance turned support holds. An eventual firm break of 3393.52 and a record run is still in favor. But break of this first line of defence will be a strong sign of rejection by 3393.52 resistance. Focus will then turn to 55 day EMA (now at 3209.72), for further indication of near term bearish reversal.

                          FOMC Minutes: Yield caps and targets not warranted in the current environment

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            The minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC minutes provided little inspiring regarding economic and policy outlook. Members g “agreed that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and was posing considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.”

                            Also, “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy would likely be needed for some time to support aggregate demand and achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run.”

                            On the issue of yield curve control, most participants “judged that yield caps and targets would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment, as the Committee’s forward guidance regarding the path of the federal funds rate already appeared highly credible and longer-term interest rates were already low.”

                            “In light of these concerns, many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment but should remain an option that the Committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly,” the minutes added.

                            Full minutes here.

                            US oil inventories dropped -1.6m barrels, WTI still range bound

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -1.6m barrels in the week ending August 14, smaller than expectation of -2.9m barrels. At 512.5m barrels, US oil inventories are about 15% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -3.3m barrels. Distillate fuel inventories rose 0.2m barrels. Propane/propylene was virtually unchanged. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -2.6m barrels.

                              WTI crude oil is still bounded in consolidation from 43.38. The support from 4 hour 55 EMA is near term bullish. But upside momentum is clearly weak for now. Focus is now on 55 week EMA (now at 43.96). Sustained break there could bring some upside acceleration to 55 month EMA (now at 54.24).

                              Canada CPI slowed to 0.1% yoy in Jul, below expectations

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Canada CPI slowed to 0.1% yoy in July, down from June’s 0.7% yoy, even below expectation of 0.3% yoy. CPI common slowed to 1.3% yoy, down from 1.5% yoy, missed expectation of 1.6% yoy. CPI median was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, below expectation of 2.0% yoy. CPI trimmed dropped to 1.7% yoy, down form 1.8% yoy, missed expectations.

                                StatCan also noted that five of the eight major components rose on 1 year-over-year basis. The slowdown in inflation spans both goods and services, most in transportation component mostly due to air transportation index.

                                Full release here.

                                WTO goods trade barometer dropped to record low 84.5

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer dropped to 84.5, -15.5 pts below baseline value of 100. That’s also the lowest on record dating back to 2007, “on part with the nadir of the 2008-09 financial crisis”.

                                  “Additional indicators point to partial upticks in world trade and output in the third quarter, but the strength of any such recovery remains highly uncertain: an L-shaped, rather than V-shaped, trajectory cannot be ruled out,” WTO added.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 0.4% in Jul, EU at 0.9%

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.4% yoy in July, up from June’s 0.3% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from non-energy industrial goods and services (both +0.42 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.38 pp) and energy (-0.83 pp).

                                    EU CPI was finalized at 0.9% yoy, up from June’s 0.8% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.1%), Cyprus (-2.0%) and Estonia (-1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (3.9%), Poland (3.7%) and Czechia (3.6%). Compared with June, annual inflation fell in ten Member States, remained stable in three and rose in fourteen.

                                    Full release here.

                                    UK CPI accelerated to 1.0%, core CPI at 1.8%

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      UK headline CPI accelerated to 1.0% yoy in July, up fro 0.6% yoy, well above expectation of 0.7% yoy. Core CPI also jumped to 1.8% yoy, up from 1.4% yoy, well above expectation of 1.3% yoy. ONS said clothing, rising prices at the petrol pump, and furniture and household goods made large upward contributions consumer to inflation.

                                      Also from UK, RPI was at 0.5% mom, 1.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.2% yoy. PPI input came in at 1.8% mom, -5.7% yoy, PPI output at -0.3% mom, -0.9% yoy. PPI output core at -0.1% mom, 0.1% yoy.

                                      Westpac: Victoria contraction to offset recovery in other Australian states in Q3

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Australia Westpac leading index rose slightly to -4.37% in July, up from -4.43%. The six-month annualized growth rate, remained in deep negative territory, consistent with recession. Nevertheless, a bottom was likely already reached in April’s -5.61%, while Q2 was already marked the low point in the growth cycle.

                                        Overall, Westpac expected growth in Q3 to be flat. Victorian economy is expected to contract by -9% due to lockdown, which will offset the recovery in other states. It expects economy to grow 2.8% in Q4, on the assumption that Victoria moves through stage 4 to stage 2 restrictions, while other states could avoid second wave of coronavirus infections.

                                        Westpac expects RBA to keep monetary policies unchanged on September 1. The next major event will be the Commonwealth Budget on October 6.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan extended double-digit drop in exports in July

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          In non-seasonally adjusted terms, Japan’s exports dropped -19.2% yoy to JPY 5369B in July. The double digit slump extended into a fifth month. Imports dropped -22.3% yoy to JPY 5357B. Trade recorded JPY 11.6B surplus.

                                          In seasonally adjusted terms, Japan’s export rose 4.7% mom in July, to JPY 5118B. Imports dropped -2.7% mom to JPY 5213B. Trade deficit narrowed to JPY -34.8B, better than expectation of JPY 44B.

                                          Also released, core machinery orders dropped -7.6% mom in June, much worse than expectation of 2.1% rise.

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