Little progress made at 7th Brexit talks

    Little to no progress was made in at the seventh round of Brexit negotiations. EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said “those who were hoping for negotiations to move swiftly forward this week will have bee disappointed and unfortunately I too am frankly disappointed and concerned, and surprised as well.”

    Barnier further criticized, “the British negotiators have not shown any real willingness to move forward on issues of fundamental importance for the European Union and this despite the flexibility which we have shown over recent months.”

    On the other hand, UK’s chief negotiator David Frost said, “substantive work continues to be necessary across a range of different areas of potential UK-EU future cooperation if we are to deliver it. We have had useful discussions this week but there has been little progress.”

    Frost also blamed that “the EU is still insisting not only that we must accept continuity with EU state aid and fisheries policy, but also that this must be agreed before any further substantive work can be done in any other area of the negotiation, including on legal texts. This makes it unnecessarily difficult to make progress.”

    UK PMI composite rose to 7-yr high, recovery gained speed

      UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 55.3 in August, up from 53.3, beat expectation of 53.6. That’s the highest level in 30 months. PMI Services jumped to 60.1, up from 56.5, above expectation of 57.0, a 72-month high. PMI Composite rose to 60.3, up from 567.0, a 82-month high.

      Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said: “August’s data illustrates that the recovery has gained speed across both the manufacturing and service sectors since July. The combined expansion of UK private sector output was the fastest for almost seven years, following sharp improvements in business and consumer spending from the lows seen in April…. Positive signals for the recovery of course need to be considered in the context of UK GDP shrinking by around one-fifth during the second quarter of the year. Survey respondents often noted that it could take more than a year to return output to pre-pandemic levels and there were widespread concerns that the honeymoon period for growth may begin to fade through the autumn months.”

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 51.6, recovery by undermined rising virus cases

        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 51.7 in August, down from 51.8, below expectation of 53.0. PMI services tumbled to 50.1, down from 54.7, missed expectation of 54.0. PMI Composite dropped to 51.6, down from 54.9.

        Andrew Harker, Economics Director at IHS Markit said: “The eurozone’s rebound lost momentum in August, highlighting the inherent demand weakness caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery was undermined by signs of rising virus cases in various parts of the euro area, with renewed restrictions impacting the service sector in particular…The eurozone stands at a crossroads, with growth either set to pick back up in coming months or continue to falter following the initial post-lockdown rebound. The path taken will likely depend in large part on how successfully COVID-19 can be suppressed and whether companies and their customers alike can gain the confidence necessary to support growth.”

        Full release here.

        Germany PMIs: Slowdown centered on services, manufacturing relatively positive

          Germany PMI Manufacturing rose to 53.0 in August, up from 51.0, above expectation of 52.5. That’s also the highest level in 23 months. PMI Services dropped sharply back to 50.8, down from 55.6, missed expectation of 55.6. PMI Composite eased back to 53.7, down from 55.3.

          Phil Smith, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “The slowdown was centred on the service sector, where growth was close to stalling amid renewed travel restrictions and a sustained decline in overall employment that continues to undermine domestic demand. Manufacturing was a relative positive, at least in terms of trends in output and new orders, which grew at the fastest rates for two-and-a-half years. However, the further cutbacks to factory work force numbers are a reminder that there is still ground to make up and businesses remain under pressure to cut costs.”

          Full release here.

          France PMI manufacturing back in contraction, fragile demand conditions

            France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.0 in August, down form 52.4, well below expectation of 53.0. It’s also now back in contraction. PMI Services dropped to 51.9, down sharply from 57.3, missed expectation of 56.3. PMI Composite dropped to 51.7, down from 57.3.

            Economist at IHS Markit said: “Following the sharp expansion registered in July, growth momentum has somewhat stuttered, with the expansion in new orders slowing to a snail’s pace as manufacturers fell back into contraction territory. Meanwhile, there was a reacceleration in the rate of job cutting after three months of successive easing. Overall, the results highlight the fragility of demand conditions faced by French businesses and cast further doubt over the V-shaped recovery that many had hoped for.”

            Full release here.

            Japan core CPI unchanged at 0% in July

              Japan all item inflation rose to 0.3% yoy in July, up from 0.1%. Core CPI, all item ex fresh food, was unchanged at 0.0% yoy, below expectation of 0.1% yoy. Core-core CPI, all item ex fresh food and energy was unchanged at 0.4% yoy.

              Outlook for core inflation suggests that Japan is close to, if not already in, a deflationary situation. It’s becoming increasingly unrealistic to achieve BoJ’s 2% inflation target in any projection horizon.

              Full release here.

              Japan PMI composite unchanged at 44.9, prospect of a solid recovery remains highly uncertain

                Japan PMI Manufacturing rose to 46.6 in August, up from 45.2, above expectation of 45.0. PMI Services edged down to 45.0, down from 45.4. PMI Composite was unchanged at 44.9.

                Bernard Aw, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The prospect of a solid recovery remains highly uncertain as Japanese firms were pessimistic about the business outlook on balance during August. Rising unemployment may also hit domestic household income and spending in the months ahead.”

                Full release here.

                Australia retails grew in July, except in Victoria

                  July’s preliminary reading showed retail sales grew 3.3% mom in Australia. Sales rose in all states and territories except Victoria, coinciding with the resurgence of coronavirus cases and reintroduction of stage 3 restrictions.

                  “The rise across the rest of the country was driven by continued strength in household goods retailing, and the recovery in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys.

                  Full release here.

                  Australia CBA PMI composite tumbled to 48.8, back in contraction

                    Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 53.9 in August, down from 54.0. However, PMI Services sharply sharply by more than -10 pts to 48.1, down from 58.2, back in contraction. PMI Composite also tumbled to 48.8, down from 57.8, back in contraction too.

                    CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird said: “The decline in business activity over August is hardly surprising given the lockdown measures in Victoria. With the August composite flash PMI only modestly in contractionary territory it is highly likely that outside of Victoria private output continued to expand over the month”.

                    “The fall in employment is the inevitable consequence of shutting down large parts of the Victorian economy. Encouragingly, firms collectively retain an optimistic view on the outlook despite the setback in Victoria. Ongoing fiscal support for households and businesses remains critical to ensuring that optimism is not misplaced”.

                    Full release here.

                    UK Gfk consumer confidence unchanged at -27

                      UK Gfk Consumer Confidence was unchanged at -27 in August, worse than expectation of -25. General economic situation over the last 12 months dropped -1 pts to -62. General economic situation over the next 12 months also dropped -1 pts to -42.

                      Joe Staton, GfK’s Client Strategy Director, says: “Employment is now the big issue because the pandemic has ended years of job security. Yes, discounted dinners have proved a winner with hungry consumers across the country this month, but it’s difficult to see significantly increased appetite for other types of spending for now.”

                      Full release here.

                      US initial claims rose back to 1.1m, continuing claims down to 14.8m

                        US initial jobless claims rose 135k to 1106k in the week ending August 15, back above 1m level. It’s also above expectation of 990k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -79k to 1176k.

                        Continuing claims dropped -636k to 14844k in the week ending August 8. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -327k to 15841k.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB accounts: Recent market developments might be based on overly optimistic expectations

                          In the accounts of July 15-16 monetary policy meeting, ECB warned that “recent positive market developments were not fully backed by economic data”. They might be based on “overly optimistic expectations” about the Next Generation EU recovery package, and progress on vaccine development.

                          “A highly accommodative monetary policy stance continued to be appropriate on account of the subdued medium-term outlook for price stability, characterised by inflation expectations standing near historical lows and significant economic slack. Careful monitoring was warranted while uncertainty about economic outlook remained elevated. Current monetary stance was seen as “adequate” and a “recalibration” was “not deemed necessary”

                          Looking ahead, additional information, including more hard data releases, new staff projections and news on fiscal measures, would become available by September. That would provide “more clarity regarding the medium-term inflation outlook”. “In any case, at its September meeting the Governing Council would be in a better position to reassess the monetary policy stance and its policy tools.”

                          Full meeting accounts here.

                          China said there will be trade talks with US in coming days

                            Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said at regular press briefing that China and the US have agreed to hold trade talks “in the coming days” for evaluation on the implementation of the phase 1 trade deal. However, there was no further elaboration on the details of the meeting, nor any exact data.

                            The comments were in contrast to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’, who said “there are no rescheduled talks … at this point”. Trade Representative ” Lighthizer continues to have discussions with his Chinese counterparts involving purchases and fulfilling their agreements.”

                            The trade deal review was originally scheduled for August 15. But US President Donald Trump indicated on Tuesday, “I postponed talks with China. You know why? I don’t want to deal with them now… What China did to the world was not even thinkable. They could have stopped (the virus).”

                            ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB to lower 7-day dollar liquidity operation to once a week

                              In a joint statement, ECB, BoE, BoJ and SNB said they will lower the frequency of 7-day US dollar liquidity providing operations starting September 1. 7-day USD operations will be carried out once per week, instead of three times per week. 84-day operations will continue to be offered weekly.

                              The central banks said the move was in view of “continuing improvements in US dollar funding conditions and the low demand at recent 7-day maturity US Dollar liquidity-providing operations.” Still, the central banks “stand ready to re-adjust the provision of US dollar liquidity as warranted by market conditions”.

                              Full statement here.

                              RBNZ Hawkesby: Balance inevitably becomes a more active tool

                                RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in a speech, “in an environment of where the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is near its lower limits, the size and composition of our balance will inevitably become a more active tool for our monetary policy decisions.”

                                He also emphasized the goal of the Large Scale Asset purchase program was “not to maximise our profits or dividend from the activities on our balance sheet”. Instead, “we use our balance sheet to achieve our ultimate policy objectives of monetary and financial stability.”

                                “We recently expanded our LSAP programme up to $100 billion and are preparing the groundwork to use additional tools if needed such as a negative OCR or Funding for Lending Programme (FLP) in order to achieve our remit and ensure the long term prosperity of New Zealanders,” Hawkesby added.

                                Full speech here.

                                Gold extends consolidation with another down leg towards 1862

                                  Gold tumbles sharply overnight in tandem with Dollar’s rebound. The development suggests that rebound from 1862.55 has completed at 2015.66. Consolidation pattern from 2075.18 should have started the third leg and deeper fall would be seen. Break of 1862.55 cannot be ruled out for the moment. But even in that case, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 1670.66 to 2075.18 at 1825.18 to contain downside. Meanwhile, sustained trading back above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1971.82) would dampen this view and probably extend the rebound from 1862.55 instead.

                                  Dollar index kept well below resistance despite post FOMC minutes rebound

                                    Dollar index staged a notable rebound overnight to close at 92.88, comparing to this week’s low at 92.12. The fact that it’s quickly back inside prior range above 92.54 support is a sign of stabilization. Daily MACD also stays above signal like after this week’s spike low.

                                    Yet, break of 93.99 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, current fall from 102.99 is still in favor to extend lower. 161.8% projection of 100.55 to 95.71 from 97.80 at 89.96, which is close to 90 psychological support, could be the next target.

                                    S&P 500 struggles to extend record run after Fed minutes, still bullish

                                      S&P 500 hit new record of 3399.54 but retreated mildly after FOMC minutes, closing down -0.44% at 3374.85. Upside momentum appears to be diminishing as the index presses prior record of 3393.52. Daily MACD is struggling around signal line, in accordance with indecisive price actions.

                                      For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 3279.99 resistance turned support holds. An eventual firm break of 3393.52 and a record run is still in favor. But break of this first line of defence will be a strong sign of rejection by 3393.52 resistance. Focus will then turn to 55 day EMA (now at 3209.72), for further indication of near term bearish reversal.

                                      FOMC Minutes: Yield caps and targets not warranted in the current environment

                                        The minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC minutes provided little inspiring regarding economic and policy outlook. Members g “agreed that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and was posing considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.”

                                        Also, “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy would likely be needed for some time to support aggregate demand and achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run.”

                                        On the issue of yield curve control, most participants “judged that yield caps and targets would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment, as the Committee’s forward guidance regarding the path of the federal funds rate already appeared highly credible and longer-term interest rates were already low.”

                                        “In light of these concerns, many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment but should remain an option that the Committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly,” the minutes added.

                                        Full minutes here.

                                        US oil inventories dropped -1.6m barrels, WTI still range bound

                                          US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -1.6m barrels in the week ending August 14, smaller than expectation of -2.9m barrels. At 512.5m barrels, US oil inventories are about 15% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -3.3m barrels. Distillate fuel inventories rose 0.2m barrels. Propane/propylene was virtually unchanged. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -2.6m barrels.

                                          WTI crude oil is still bounded in consolidation from 43.38. The support from 4 hour 55 EMA is near term bullish. But upside momentum is clearly weak for now. Focus is now on 55 week EMA (now at 43.96). Sustained break there could bring some upside acceleration to 55 month EMA (now at 54.24).