Singapore expects sharper contraction after circuit breaker extension

    Singapore’s Trade and Industry minister Chan Chun Sing said today that, the country is “very likely” to see a sharper contraction in the economy due to coronavirus pandemic. He said, “we are really concerned that worldwide, this is going to lead to a more serious problem than many had anticipated just a month ago”.

    GDP already experienced -10.6% annualized contraction in Q1, the worst in a decade. Back in March, the government forecast a contraction of 1-4% this year. However, coronavirus spread worsened this month, as infections surged from around just 1000 to over 10000. The government decided to extend the so-called “circuit-breaker” coronavirus containment measures by four weeks until June 1. Chan said he hoped to “progressively open” in a months time.

    Separately, Citigroup said earlier this week that the Singaporean economy would contract by -8.5% this year after the “circuit breaker” extension. “The circuit breaker would cause close to 25%-30% of GDP to come to a standstill, with every month of extension further reducing 2020 GDP by 2% to 2.5%,” Citi’s economists wrote in a report. “The technical rebound after the lifting of the circuit breaker on 1st Jun will be capped by continued social distancing and only gradual recovery in exports.”

    Canada CPI plunged to 0.9%, sharpest deceleration since 2006

      Canada CPI slowed to 0.9% yoy in March, down sharply from February’s 2.2%. That’s the fastest deceleration since September 2006. Excluding energy CPI rose 1.7%. CPI common slowed to 1.7% yoy, down from 1.8%, matched expectations. CPI median, slowed to 2.0% yoy, down from 2.1% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed slowed to 1.8% yoy, down from 2.0% yoy, below expectation of 2.0% yoy.

      Prices rose in six of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis, with shelter prices (+1.9%) contributing the most to the all-items increase. Consumers paid less for transportation (-1.2%) and recreation, education and reading (-0.5%) compared with March 2019.

      Full release here.

      ECB Rehn: Essential for EU to come with with a convincing coronavirus package

        ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said it’s “essential” EU would come up with a “convincing package” tomorrow to “mitigate the economic effects of the crisis, especially for the weakest countries.” He warned that “the future of Europe as a political community is also at stake.” The difficulties caused by the coronavirus pandemic are “not due to any single country’s reckless management of finances,” he added. ” It is therefore necessary to support the most severely hit countries.”

        Rehn also noted that a “joint solution” is likely to be found by using EU’s “budget framework rather than through joint loans.” “Joint European solutions are also in Finland’s interest because our own economy, too, is highly dependent on the European economy’s development and recovery. Alone we can boost our domestic demand but not exports,” he added.

        As for ECB, “we will continue to monitor the situation and stand ready to adjust all of our measures, as appropriate,” he said.

        ECB Lagarde rejects helicopter money in letter to MEP

          In a letter to a European Parliament member, ECB President Christine Lagarde pointed out that the term “helicopter money” has been associated with a wide range of policy proposals. “In many cases, these proposals do not fully address the associated operational, accounting and legal complexities nor provide a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of the full economic and monetary impact”

          In another letter, she emphasized that the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, “prohibits” the ECB and national central banks to purchase debts directly from EU institutions and member governments. She said, “the Treaties have been understood to mean that primary market purchase of government debt, i.e. the direct financing of governments, would undermine the capability of this objective to encourage such disciplined budgetary policy”.

          Her comments reinforced the view that ECB would continue hoover up assets on the secondary markets even if the asset purchase program approaches limits.

          UK CPI slowed to 1.5%, core CPI slowed to 1.6% in March

            UK CPI slowed to 1.5% yoy in March, down from 1.7% yoy, matched expectations. Core CPI slowed to 1.6% yoy, down from 1.7% yoy, also matched expectations. RPI, on the other hand, accelerated to 2.6% yoy, up from 2.5% yoy, beat expectation of 2.3% yoy.

            Also from UK, PPI input same in at -3.6% mom, -2.9% yoy. PPI output was at -0.2% mom, 0.3% yoy. PPI output core was at 0.3% mom, 0.9% yoy.

            DOW could have finished corrective rebound after rejection by 55 day EMA

              DOW gapped down yesterday and eventually closed down -631.56 pts, or -2.67%, at 23018.88. The development raises the chance that corrective rebound from 18213.65 has completed after rejection by 55 day EMA. Immediate focus is back on 22595.06 resistance turned support. Break will add more credence to this case and target next support level at 20735.02.

              In case of another rise, it now looks like upside would be limited by 61.8% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 25230.99.

              Australia retail sales rose 8.2% on unprecedented demand

                Preliminary readings showed Australia retail sales rose 8.2% in March. That’s the strongest seasonally adjusted rise ever published. ABS said the data indicated “unprecedented demand in March in the Food retailing industry, with strong sales across supermarkets, liquor retailing and other specialised food.”

                The rise was “slightly offset by strong falls in industries including cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, which were impacted by new social distancing regulations introduced in March. ”

                Retail turnover, current prices, seasonally adjusted, percentage change

                Full release here.

                BoE Bailey: Not enough finance has gone through to small firms

                  BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with Daily Mail that there are a number of “bottleneck” in the system, so that not enough finance has gone through to small firms in the coronavirus crisis. Only around GBP 2B has been lent to companies under the Covid Business Interruption Loan scheme.

                  He noted it’s hard for banks to deal with a huge surge in loan demands, at a time when their staff are having health struggles. It’s also difficult to assess the risk with the loans to small firms. Bailey added, “this gums up the operational side. It is clearly not satisfactory and [the system] clearly needs to be un-gummed. I gee up the banks regularly. The Chancellor and I are both extremely keen that credit flows to firms.”

                  Regarding lockdown exit, “I think we have to be careful when thinking about human psychology,’ he said. ‘If we had a lifting and then [lockdown] came back again, I think that would damage people’s confidence very severely.”

                  BoE Haldane: Will economy bounce back immediately? That’s an open question

                    BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane said today that March contraction in the economy was probably enough to cause an overall GDP contraction in Q1. Further, Q2 is likely to bring a “very sharp contraction” too.

                    He said that there are “real limits” to what public policy could do to offset the economic impacts from coronavirus containment. “Even after those policies are relaxed, there is certainly a chance that people might be reluctant themselves to want to spend too vigorously, or to go out and socialise too much,” he added.

                    Haldane noted, “there will certainly be some recovery, there will certainly be a bounce. Will it bounce back immediately…? That is an open question.”

                    Canada retail sales rose 0.3% in February

                      Canada retail sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 52.2B in February, above expectation of 0.0% mom. That’s the first time sales grew for four months in a row since October 2018. Ex-auto sales was flat, also above expectation of -0.1% mom. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors.

                      Full release here.

                      German ZEW sentiment jumps as current situation deteriorates

                        German ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped sharply by 77.7 pts to 28.2 in April. However, Current Situation index dived by -48.4 pts to -91.5. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose 74.78 pts to 25.2. Eurozone Current Situation gauge dropped -45.4 pts to -93.9.

                        ZEW President Achim Wambach said: “The financial market experts are beginning to see a light at the end of the very long tunnel. The results of the special questions on the coronavirus crisis included in the survey show that the experts do not expect to see positive economic growth until the third quarter of 2020. Economic output is not expected to return to pre-corona levels before 2022.”

                        Full release here.

                        EU Breton: A package of EUR 1.6 trillion needed to support post pandemic recovery

                          European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services Thierry Breton said a package of EUR 1.6 trillion could be needed to help Europe’s economy recover from impact of coronavirus. That would represent some 10% of EU GDP. His top priority is to help small-and-medium businesses while a “Marshall plan” is required to help the tourism industry.

                          EU leaders are expected to meet on Thursday, by video conference. But it’s doubtful is there would be any conclusion on the way to finance the economic rescue package. It’s reported that the Commission prefers to finance the recovery fund via increased joint budget for 2021-27. Germany is said to support the financing through a larger EU budget and issuance of joint debt. But many details are still missing.

                          ECB Panetta: Absent of common coronavirus action would dilute public support for EU

                            ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta criticized that Eurozone’s fiscal response to the coronavirus pandemic has been insufficient. He emphasized, “only if all economies act with the necessary force to contain the recession will the loss in output for the entire eurozone be minimized.”

                            He warned, “any perception that common action is absent in times of desperate crisis would dilute public support for the European Union — an effect that is already visible in countries on the frontline of the health crisis.” And, “the threat to the single market is clear: uneven fiscal support implies that a firm’s location, rather than its business model, will be the decisive factor in determining whether it survives this crisis.”

                            UK employment rate hit record high before coronavirus pandemic

                              UK unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.0% in the three month to February, slightly above expectation of 3.9%. Employment rate rose 0.2% to a record high of 76.6% during the period. Wage growth slowed notably with average earnings including bonus decelerated to 2.8% 3moym down from 3.1%. Average earnings excluding bonus slowed to 2.9% 3moy down from 3.1%. The set of pre-coronavirus pandemic data is somewhat irrelevant to the markets.

                              Full release here.

                              CADJPY staying in sideway consolidation despite massive oil price move

                                WTI crude oil suffered some historical volatility overnight. A day ahead of expiration, WTI crude oil futures for May slumped into deep negative at -40.32, then turned positive in Asian session. However, Canadian Dollar, while generally weak, isn’t much bothered.

                                CAD/JPY is staying in consolidation pattern from 73.86. With this week’s decline and break of 75.93 minor support, intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retest 73.86 low. On the upside, break of 77.08 could bring another rise to retest 38.2% retracement of 84.74 to 73.86 at 78.01, to extend the consolidation.

                                RBA Lowe: Health and economic emergencies will cast a shadow over our economy

                                  RBA Governor Philip Lowe said today that the economy will likely contract by around -10% in the first half. Most of the decline would take place in Q2 due to the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, unemployment rate could jump from March’s 5.2% to around 10% by June.

                                  He also sounded cautious regarding the post pandemic recovery. “Whatever the timing of the recovery, when it does come, we should not be expecting that we will return quickly to business as usual,” he said. “Rather, the twin health and economic emergencies that we are experiencing now will cast a shadow over our economy for some time to come.”

                                  Bank of Spain: Economy to contract -12.4% this year in worst case scenario

                                    In a latest report by Bank of Spain, it’s estimated that the country’s GDP could contract from -6.8% to -12.4% this year due to coronavirus pandemic. But vigorous rebound is expected in 2021. Unemployment could also surge to 18.3% to 21.7%.

                                    In the best scenario, lockdown that started in mid-March would only last eight weeks. GDP would contract -6.8% in 2020 before growing 5.5% in 2021. Unemployment would still hit 18.3% in 2020, before falling back to 17.5% in 2021.

                                    In the central scenario where companies’ liquidity shortages turn into solvency problems in the eight-week lockdown, GDP would contract -9.5% in 2020 before rebounding by 6.1% in 2021. Unemployment rate will surge to 20.6% this year then dropped back to 19.1% next.

                                    In the worst case scenario which lockdown lasts 12 weeks, GDP would contract -12.4% in 2021 then rebound 8.5% in 2021. Unemployment rate could hit 21.7% before easing to 19.9% next year.

                                    Full report here.

                                    Bundesbank: Rapid and strong economic recovery unlikely

                                      Bundesbank said in its regular monthly report that Germany would recover slowly after severe recession. It said, “substantial restrictions are likely to remain until a medical solution such as vaccination is available. For this reason, a rapid and strong economic recovery currently seems unlikely.”

                                      Though, it added that “there is no fear that the German economy will get into a self-reinforcing downward spiral”. Fiscal and monetary policies will support the recovery. But inflation is likely to decline sharply in the coming months when lower oil prices are quickly passed onto consumers.

                                      BoE Broadbent: Even if lockdown is lifted, demand may remain weak in some areas

                                        BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is concerned that economic recovery could be slow after coronavirus lockdown exit, event though a rapid bounce back is “certainly conceivable, certainly possible.” He said, “the question that we will have to think about is whether behavioural responses of people mean that even if the government-imposed lockdown is lifted, demand may remain weak in some areas just out of people’s natural caution.”

                                        He added that a -35% contraction in the economy in Q2 was possible. The “coronavirus crisis is quite unlike a normal cyclical downturn.” BoE’s stimulus was designed so that “hit to demand does not outstrip that to supply.” The size of the virus hit is “very, very material” after all.

                                        Japan exports slumped in March as coronavirus hit

                                          In non-seasonally adjusted terms, Japan’s exports dropped a massive -11.7% yoy in March while imports dropped -5.0% yoy. Trade surplus came in at just JPY 4.95B. The contraction in export was the worst since July 2016 as shipments to major destinations like China, US and EU were choked by the coronavirus pandemic. The impact will likely continue in April and onwards until global lockdown exits. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports dropped -4.1% mom while imports rose 7.2% mom. Trade balanced turned into JPY -0.19T deficit.

                                          Separately, Reuters reported that the government is going to boost its economic rescue package by 8% to JPY 117. A major change is inclusion of JPY 100k cash payout for to every citizen, on top of JPY 300k payout to households affected by the pandemic. The government is also planning to issue extra bonds worth JPY 25.7T to fund the revised budget.