RBA Lowe: We shouldn’t be worried about government borrowing

    RBA Governor Philip Lowe told ABC News that the coronavirus pandemic was “going to be perhaps a once-in-a-lifetime event” and it “required a truly extraordinary response”. “I didn’t think in my term of governor, I’d be buying AUD 40 billion of government bonds, which we’ve done in the past few weeks and lending over AUD 100 billion to the banking system.”

    Lowe also noted that there shouldn’t be concern on escalating government debt. “If ever there’s a time to borrow, now is it,” he said. “We shouldn’t be worried” about the debt. “We have the capacity to borrow, our interest rates are as low as they’ve ever been, the Australian government has a long record of responsible fiscal policy, so the budget accounts are in reasonable shape,” he added.

    New Zealand CPI accelerated, but RBNZ core CPI slowed

      New Zealand CPI rose accelerated to 0.8% qoq in Q1, up from Q4’s 0.5% qoq, well above expectation of 0.3% qoq. Annual inflation rate rose to 2.5% yoy, highest since 2011. Impact of coronavirus pandemic was not much reflected in the data yet as lockdown measures started on March 25. Separately released, RBNZ’s own core CPI measures slowed to 1.7% yoy in Q1, down from 1.8% yoy.

      Separately, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today that the country will “move out of Alert Level 4 lockdown at 11.59 p.m. on Monday April 27, one week from today”. Afterwards, “we will then hold in Alert Level 3 for two weeks, before reviewing how we are tracking again, and making further decisions at Cabinet on the 11th of May.”

      Fed Mester: Reopen very carefully, no one wants to go backwards

        Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said “the economic data is very ugly reflecting the shutdown in the activity, furloughs and layoffs,” due to coronavirus pandemic. “Fed is working to help markets function and support businesses so they can be ready when economy reopen”, She said. “It will take some time for the economy to pick back up and the Fed is trying to limit the economic damage.”

        Mester also support the idea of reopening the economy in stages. She emphasized, “no one wants to go backwards. Everyone wants to kind of get back to work but everyone realizes that how you do that really has to be done very carefully.”

        Separately, New York Fed President John Williams said there will be “a lot of economic pain” and “that’s likely to continue for some time”. He added, “I still think we’ve got some tough days ahead and that’s why we’re working so hard to support the economy during this period.”

        Bundesbank Weidmann: An expansionary monetary and fiscal policy will remain necessary for some time, but not permanently

          Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said monetary policy is making a “major and important contribution within the scope of its mandate” to counter the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. But it’s “not yet possible” to say whether the coronavirus measures taken to date will be “enough” he added.

          “The decisive factors for economic developments will be the further course of the pandemic, the length of the lockdown and whether the measures taken successfully address liquidity and potential solvency problems facing firms and households,” he said.

          Weidmann admitted “an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy will in any case remain necessary for some time.” But he also argued that “the pandemic plainly shows how important a solid fiscal policy is.” “An extremely expansionary fiscal stance cannot be sustained permanently,” he said. “Going forward, then, all countries will have to focus on reducing the very high debt ratios and ensuring acceptance in the capital markets, and to do this in a way that is compatible with our fiscal rules.”

          Eurozone CPI finalized at 0.7% in March, EU at 1.2%

            Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.7% yoy in March, down from February’s 1.2% yoy, half of 1.4% yoy a month ago. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from services (+0.60%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.46%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.13%) and energy (-0.45%).

            EU CPI was finalized at 1.2%, down from February’s 1.6% yoy, also down from 1.6% yoy a year ago. The lowest annual rates were registered in Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Portugal (all 0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary, Poland (both 3.9%) and Czechia (3.6%). Compared with February, annual inflation fell in twenty-six Member States and rose in one.

            Full release here.

            China GDP contracted -6.8% in Q1, but March data show improvements

              China’s GDP contracted -6.8% quarter over year in Q1. That’s the worst performance since at least 1992 as the country was brought to paralysis coronavirus outbreak. The contraction was also slightly larger than expectation of -6.0%.

              In March, retail sales dropped -15.8% yoy, after tumbling for -20.5% yoy in the first two months, versus expectation of -8.8% yoy. Industrial production dropped -1.1% yoy, much less severe than expectation of -5.6% yoy. Fixed asset investments contracted -16.1% ytd yoy in January-March period, below expectation of 15.1% yoy, improved from January-February’s -24.5% ytd yoy.

              There was no negative reactions from the markets, despite the poor GDP data. Some traders are indeed seeing the improvement in March data, in particular production, as sign of silver linings. Hong Kong HSI gapped up earlier today and remains firm, up more than 2% at the time of writing.

              USD/CNH is also staying in tight range today. The pair recovered after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Rise from 6.8452 is still mildly in favor to extend to retest 7.1953 high.

              Fed Kashkari: Staged approach for reopening makes sense

                Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the plan to reopen the economy in a staged approach “makes sense”. “When I looked at the president’s plan it seems consistent with the advice and the feedback that we’ve heard from health experts, that there is a way to slowly reopen the economy,” he said.

                “Obviously we want to try to avoid the virus flaring back up again and giving back the gains that we’ve had, and I think a staged approach, looking over the horizon, makes sense.”

                Fed Harker: The worst thing is to rush reopening

                  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said monetary policy is going to “stay low until we really see the economy starting to recover back to our dual mandate”. Exactly how long that is a “function of how quickly medical science and industry can put in place the tools, the testing regimes, the vaccines etc. to keep the American public safe.”

                  But he warned, “the worst thing we can do in my mind is rush this” and have a “significant rebound… which would just set us back”.

                  Fed Williams: Full scale of coronavirus economic consequences still unknown

                    New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday, “the coronavirus pandemic has created circumstances we have never experienced before in our lifetimes. The reality is that the full scale of the economic consequences is still unknown.”

                    The economy is “going to be underperforming for some time”. “There’s a lot of uncertainty about how long it will take,” Williams added, and Fed will “use all of our tools as appropriate” to support the economy.

                    Philly Fed manufacturing index dropped to -56.5, but future activity improved

                      Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook current activity index dropped to -56.5 in April, down from -12.7. That’s even below that nadir during the Great Recession, and was the lowest since July 1980. Looking at some details, new orders fell further into negative territory, from -15.5 to -70.9, record low. Current shipments dropped -74 pts to all-time low.

                      However, index for future general activity rose 8pts to 43.0. Over 53% of firms expected increases in activity over the next six months, while 10% expected declines. Future new orders held steady while futures rose 4 pts.

                      Full release here.

                      US initial jobless claims dropped to 5245k, continuing claims hit 11.98m

                        US initial jobless claims dropped -1370k to 5245k in the week ending April 11. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1241k to 5509k. Continuing claims rose 4.53m to 11.98m in the week ending April 4. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2.57m to 6.07m.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB Lagarde expects large contraction in Eurozone and rapidly deteriorating labor markets

                          ECB President Christine Lagarde told the International Monetary and Financial Committee, “in the euro area, incoming economic data, particularly recent survey results, have started to show unprecedented falls, pointing to a large contraction in output in the euro area, as well as to rapidly deteriorating labour markets.”

                          She added that the central bank is fully prepared to increase the size of its asset purchase programmes and adjust their composition, “by as much as necessary and for as long as needed. It will explore all options and all contingencies to support the economy through this shock” of coronavirus pandemic.

                          Separately, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank should do more to avoid financial fragmentation in the zone. And ECB “stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as needed … to avoid fragmentation that may hamper the smooth transition of our monetary policy,”

                          Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, “from the ECB’s perspective, as our actions have shown, we stand ready to support the citizens and economies of Europe if events show that we need to do more”. “Our focus has to be on supporting the public health response. But we also need to think about how we recover from the economic shock, and how the financial system supports the recovery, when it comes,” he added.

                          Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.1% in Feb, EU flat

                            Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.1% mom in February, the month before coronavirus pandemic measures began. Production of durable consumer goods fell by -2.0% mom and capital goods by -1.5% mom, while production of both intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.4% mom and energy by 0.7% mom.

                            EU industrial productions was unchanged over the month. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Greece (-3.7%), Portugal (-2.8%) and Malta (-2.6%). The highest increases were observed in Estonia (+8.7%), Denmark (+3.7%) and Latvia (+3.1%).

                            Full release here.

                            IMF Georgieva urges UK to extend Brexit transition

                              IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged UK to seek longer Brexit transition. She told BBC radio that “it is tough as it is” with coronavirus pandemic. “Let’s not make it any tougher”. She added, “my advice would be to seek ways in which this element of uncertainty is reduced in the interests of everybody, of the UK, of the EU, the whole world.”

                              She also hailed the measures taken by the UK government on countering the economic impact of the pandemic. She said, “that very strong package of measures is helping the UK, but given the UK’s sizeable role in the world economy, it’s actually helping everyone.”

                              The Brexit transition period is set to end on December 31, with a new trade agreement in place. The time frame to reach a deal between UK and EU was already seen by unachieveable by some. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said before he won’t seek another delay in Brexit.

                              Australia employment grew in March, coronavirus impact to be evident in April

                                Australia employment unexpected grew 5.9k in March, versus expectation of -40.0k contraction. Full-time employment dropped just 400 to 8.88m. Part-time employment rose 6.4k to 4.14m. Unemployment rate rose just 1% from 5.1% to 5.2%, much better than expectation of 5.5%. Participation rate was steady at 66.0%.

                                Chief Economist at the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said: “Today’s data shows some small early impact from COVID-19 on the Australian labour market in early March, but any impact from the major COVID-19 related actions will be evident in the April data.”

                                Unemployment rate

                                Full release here.

                                RBNZ Orr not ruling out negative interest rates

                                  RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr told the Epidemic Response Committee today that recovery from the coronavirus pandemic would be more challenging than that of the global financial crisis of 2008-9. He noted, “the most optimistic scenario is that we come out of this very very tight lockdown, and we remain out of this lockdown in varying levels of economic activity.”

                                  He said RBNZ’s measures are just the beginning and even negative interest rates were not off the table. Though, it wouldn’t come for 12 months and the time frame would give retail banks some certainty to prepare for the possibilities. “We’re doing the best out of a bad situation,” he said.

                                  Separately, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said a decision on whether to lower lockdown from level 4 would be made on April 20. But she emphasized that significant restrictions would remain in place even if that happens. “By design, Level 3 is a progression, not a rush to normality. It carries forward many of the restrictions in place at Level 4, including the requirement to mainly be at home in your bubble and to limit contact with others,” Ardern said.

                                  Fed Beige Book: Activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions

                                    Fed’s Beige Book report showed that economic activity “contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions” in the US as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. And,  “all districts” reported highly uncertain outlooks among business contacts, with most expecting “conditions to worsen in the next several months.”

                                    Regarding the job markets, contacts in several Districts noted they were cutting employment via “temporary layoffs and furloughs” that they hoped to reverse once business activity resumes. The near-term outlook was for “more job cuts in coming months.”

                                    BoC Governor Poloz press conference live stream

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                                      Oil inventories rose 19.2m barrels, WTI heading back to 20 as corrective rise completed

                                        US commercial crude oil inventories rose 19.2 million barrels in the week ending April 10, above expectation of 12.1 million. At 503.6 million barrels, oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year.

                                        WTI crude oil weakens mildly this week and is now trading below 26 handle. The break of 4 hour 55 EMA suggests that corrective recovery from 20.40 has completed at 32.15. Deeper fall is now mildly in favor to retest 20.40. On the upside, above 32.15 will extend the corrective rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 65.38 to 20.40 at 37.58.

                                        BoC stands pat, launches new bond purchase programs

                                          BoC left overnight rate target unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. It noted that this is the “effective lower bound” of the overnight rate already. BoC will continue to purchase at least CAD 5B in government securities per week in the secondary market. It’s also temporarily increasing the amount of treasury bills acquired at auctions to up to 40%.

                                          Additionally, BoC launches today a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to CAD 50B, to supplement the Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further there is a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program, in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Term repo facility is enhanced to permit funding for up to 24 months.

                                          While it’s “too uncertain” to provide a complete economic forecasts, BoC analyzed alternative scenarios. GDP was down 1-3% in Q1 and will be 15-30% lower in Q2 this year, comparing with Q4 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be close to 0% in Q2, primarily due to lower gasoline prices.

                                          Full statement here.