Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose from 46.4 to 47.3 in November. PMI Services was unchanged at 48.6. PMI Composite rose from 47.3 to 47.8.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“A further fall in business activity in November adds to the chances of the eurozone economy slipping into recession. So far, the data for the fourth quarter are consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of just over 0.2%.

“However, the November PMI data also bring some tentative good news. In particular, the overall rate of decline has eased compared to October. Most encouragingly, supply constraints are showing signs of easing, with supplier performance even improving in the region’s manufacturing heartland of Germany. Warm weather has also allayed some of the fears over energy shortages in the winter months.

“Price pressures, the recent surge of which has prompted further policy tightening from the ECB, are also now showing signs of cooling, most noticeably in the manufacturing sector. Not only should this help contain the cost of living crisis to some extent, but the brighter inflation outlook should take some pressure off the need for further aggressive policy tightening.

“However, it’s clear that manufacturing remains in a worryingly severe downturn, and service sector activity is also still under intense pressure, both largely as a result of the cost of living crisis and recent tightening of financial conditions. A recession therefore looks likely, though the latest data provide hope that the scale of the downturn may not be as severe as previously feared.”

Full release here.

Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 49.8 in August, down from July’s 51.2, a 17-month low. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.9, down from prior month’s 49.9, a 18-month low.

Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI Composite dropped to 51.0 (18-month low). Spain dropped to 50.5 (7-month low). France dropped to 50.4 (17-month low). Italy recovered to 49.6, (2-month high). Germany dropped to 46.9 (27-month low).

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“A second month of deteriorating business conditions in the euro area adds to the likelihood of GDP contracting in the third quarter…. The deterioration is also becoming more broad-based, with services now joining manufacturing in reporting falling output..”

“Although the overall rate of decline remains only modest, commensurate with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%, the latest data point to the economy undergoing its weakest spell for nine years, excluding the downturns seen during the height of the pandemic.”

Full release here.